Mark Lautman, CEcD BR&E How the game has changed and what can you do about it? 1 

A Bigger, Faster, More Challenging Game • Think Bigger • Plan Better • Be Nimble 2 

CHANGES TO THE GAME 1. The Phantom Workforce You think the workers are there but they’re not. 2. Rising Attrition You need to create way more new economic base jobs every year than you used to 3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 4. New Program Approaches Remote work may be the greatest source of new economic base jobs now. 5. Precision Planning Algorithms Plan, manage and account for results better or prepare to die. 3 

THE PHANTOM WORKFORCE 4 

Shortage of Qualified Workers 5 

WR&E Workforce Retention & Expansion 

CHANGES TO THE GAME 1. The Phantom Workforce You think the workers are there but they’re not. 2. Rising Attrition You need to create way more new economic base jobs every year than you used to 3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 4. New Program Approaches Remote work may be the greatest source of new economic base jobs now. 5. Precision Planning Algorithms Plan, manage and account for results better or prepare to die. 7 

Rising Attrition 1. Automation 2. New Business Models 3. Global Competition 4. Big box retailing – Internet Sales 5. Boomer Business Owner Succession 6. Pandemics – Changing Demand Patterns 7. Catastrophic events 8 

Implications of Rising Attrition 1. Increasing rate of attrition: acceleration, automation, business models, disruption, boomer owned business attrition… 2. Decreasing economic base job multiplier: as the proportion of service sector jobs supported by each economic base job continues to shrink from big box retailing, internet sales and permanent decline in service sector consumption from pandemic impacts… 9 

CHANGES TO THE GAME 1. The Phantom Workforce You think the workers are there but they’re not. 2. Rising Attrition You need to create way more new economic base jobs every year than you used to 3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 4. New Program Approaches Remote work may be the greatest source of new economic base jobs now. 5. Precision Planning Algorithms Plan, manage and account for results better or prepare to die. 10 

Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 11 

CHANGES TO THE GAME 1. The Phantom Workforce You think the workers are there but they’re not. 2. Rising Attrition You need to create way more new economic base jobs every year than you used to 3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 4. New Program Approaches Remote work may be the greatest source of new economic base jobs now. 5. Precision Planning Algorithms Plan, manage and account for results better or prepare to die. 12 

BR&E + C WR&E REMOTE WORK New Program Approaches Conversion to E-base Workforce Retention and Expansion Retain and Expand 13 

Program Theater Organic Current Capacity Business as Usual With Additional Support Total Potential Employer 500 1500 2000 1500 3500 Government 500 0 500 500 1000 Visitor 500 1,500 2000 500 2,500 Retirement 400 200 600 600 1,200 Extractives & Energy 0 50 50 80 130 Remote work 50 0 50 2,000 2,050 Film/DM 100 200 300 0 300 Startup 20 150 170 150 320 Agriculture 50 0 50 250 300 Import Substitution - - - - TOTALS 2,120 3,600 5,720 5,580 11,300 Job Creation Potential – Remote Work 14 

E-Base Jobs Potential: 180,284 Over by 28,949 Jobs E-Base Jobs Needed: 151,335 New Mexico Elevated Effort Legislative Jobs Council 15 

CHANGES TO THE GAME 1. The Phantom Workforce You think the workers are there but they’re not. 2. Rising Attrition You need to create way more new economic base jobs every year than you used to 3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 4. New Program Approaches Remote work may be the greatest source of new economic base jobs now. 5. Precision Planning Algorithms Plan, manage and account for results better or prepare to die. 16 

? If you could dramatically improve “one thing” about the way we practice economic development today, that would boost our productivity and credibility, what would it be? What things do we not do enough of, don’t do at all or don’t do well enough? 

Precision Planning Algorithms 

Program Levels 1. Procuring 2. Responding 3. Encouraging 4. Faking 5. Missing 19 

Factor of Production Gap Program Areas Job Creation Program Theaters Marketing & Sales Apparatus Marketing Sales Completion Hard Assets Land Buildings Infrastructure Workforce Qualified workers Housing Education Community Quality Leadership & Business Climate Leadership Tax and regulatory climate Planning Organization Solowork Extractives & Energy Startup Retirement Visitor Film Employer Agriculture Federal Government $ Capital Equity Debt Community Program Apparatus 20 

Could your funding request for BR&E get support from the Sharks? 21 

Shark Tank Overarching Program Apparatus 1. How do you define economic development? 2. How many economic base jobs does the community need to save or create? 3. How many could be saved or created with a reasonable amount of additional support? (How many from your BR&E program?) 4. Does total job creation potential meet, fall short, or exceed your needs? By how much? What is your predicament? 5. Which factor of production gaps must be cured for the potential new jobs to materialize? What specific interventions, programs, projects and policy changes are required? When must they be completed? Who is on the hook for completion? 6. What changes need to be made to your community’s economic development apparatus to ensure the planning, underwriting, management and accounting gets done? 22 

Shark Tank For BR&E Programs 1. How many economic base jobs does the community need to restore or create in order to recover from the economic crisis? 2. How do you define BR&E? (scope, primary metric, methodology, level of effort…) 3. How many economic base jobs could your BR&E program save, expand or convert during the planning period? 4. Which job creation program theaters could benefit from a formal BR&E program? 5. Which factor of production gaps must be cured for the potential establishments/jobs to be saved, expanded or converted? 6. What specific interventions, programs, projects and policy changes will be needed to cure the gaps? 7. How do you propose to underwrite, manage and account for each critical program element. 8. What organizational changes are implied? 23 

Do You Have A Real Plan? Bubble Diagram Construction Drawings 24 

Do you have the marketing and sales apparatus? 25 

CHANGES TO THE GAME 1. The Phantom Workforce You think the workers are there but they’re not. 2. Rising Attrition You need to create way more new economic base jobs every year than you used to 3. Decoupling of Wages from GDP We may need a new economic system soon. 4. New Program Approaches Remote work may be the greatest source of new economic base jobs now. 5. Precision Planning Algorithms Plan, manage and account for results better or prepare to die. 26 

Mark Lautman, CEcD [email protected]