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Black Swans h D O C K YA R D h What they can teach us about the future

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Lauren Elizabeth Tan @sugarpirate_ @poteto

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“Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” –Juvenal

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“A rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan” –Juvenal

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“A rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan” –Juvenal

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One single observation

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Black Swan

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–Donald Rumsfeld “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.”

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I. Is an outlier II.Has extreme impact III.Retrospective predictability

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Black Swans explain almost everything

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World War I

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I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with the benefit of hindsight

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The Internet

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I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with the benefit of hindsight

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9/11

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I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with the benefit of hindsight

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MH17 / 370

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Sub-prime mortgage crisis

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Challenger

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etc.

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The Problem of Induction

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Some men are doctors. Some doctors are tall. Therefore, some men are tall.

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If it rains, the street will be wet. The street is wet. Therefore, it rained.

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Half of my foreign neighbors are illegal immigrants. Therefore, half of immigrants come illegally.

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If P⇒Q and Q⇒R are true Then P→R is true

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What we think we know

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What is "normal"?

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80/20 https://youtu.be/fCn8zs912OE?t=194

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20% of people hold 80% of all wealth

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20% of businesses generate 80% of all profits

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Rule of 70

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If your savings increase by 10% every year

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Your savings will double in 7 years

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How to think about the future

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Moore's Law

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Artificial Intelligence?

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Artificial Super Intelligence

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Artificial Super Intelligence

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I. Will be an outlier II.Will have extreme impact III.Probably predictable after the fact

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How long until computers have the same power as the human brain? https://youtu.be/MRG8eq7miUE

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2025

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How long until computers are twice as smart as humans?

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2026

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At what point were computers half as smart as humans?

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2024

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The future

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Solar Energy

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Solar Energy

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Solar Energy

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Solar Energy

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Solar Energy

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Singularity?

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fin.