Director | Knowledge Systems |AKADEMIYA2063 Overview of the 2024 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) Dr Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR PRESENTATION OUTLINE I. WHAT IS THE ATOR II. THE PROBLEM III. OBJECTIVES OF THE 2024ATOR IV. STRATEGIC ISSUES COVERED IN THE REPORT V. MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOECONOMIY INTO THE POST-MALABO CAADP AGENDA VI. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR WHAT IS THE ATOR? PRODUCED ANNUALLY • a flagship Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR)—the official CAADP monitoring and evaluation report TRACKS CORE CAADP INDICATORS • assesses trends and progress on CAADP core indicators and presents analysis on a topic of strategic importance to the CAADP implementation agenda HIGHLY RATED REPORT • a peer-reviewed publication of AKADEMIYA2063 and the IFPRI and holds IFPRI’s highest rank of A* for the full report and a rank of A for individual chapters

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR I. The Problem: CLIMATE CHANGE ▪ Hotter temperatures ▪ More severe & deadly storms ▪ Increased drought ▪ A warming, rising ocean ▪ Loss of species ▪ Not enough food ▪ More health risks ▪ Poverty and displacement.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR II. Objectives of the 2024ATOR Explores the challenges that the climate crisis poses for Africa's agri-food systems, and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change Highlights the win-win relationship between climate actions and expanding the bioeconomy, with lessons from the continent and beyond. It also stresses the urgency of accelerating the implementation of national, continental, and regional climate change initiatives Highlights priority areas for action, ranging from developing an integrated policy approach to mitigate and reverse the negative effects of climate change to expanding investment in bioeconomy to leverage biotechnology, agricultural waste, and renewable resources and to enhance value addition and diversify income streams for farmers and rural communities Seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Executive Summary, Introduction and Conclusion Substantive Chapters Featured Issues Structure of the Report

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR III. STRATEGIC ISSUES COVERED IN THE REPORT

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Climate risks and vulnerabilities ❑Strategies should focus on reducing risk, especially in areas where the risk is known to be high. ❑Plans should incorporate important components such as agric. research to develop new varieties and techniques, information services to help farmers adapt more quickly, and risk-reducing approaches such as irrigation, mechanization, and agroforestry

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Adaptation actions to climate change ❑The report underscores the need for an integrated policy approach to mitigate and reverse the adverse effects of climate change. ❑In their analysis of the likely impact of climate change on African agriculture between present day and 2050, the authors argue that the best policies and investments will be those that give farmers multiple options for adaptation, reduce risk, or increase productivity over a wide range of climate outcomes.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Impact of climate change and strategic investment in agricultural commodities ❑An analysis of the climate stress sensitivity of agricultural commodities recommends investment in crops less sensitive to shocks. ❑Crops such as maize, sorghum, and soybeans will see a greater production boost or a lower loss in Africa than in the rest of the world. ❑Groundnuts and rice will do modestly worse in Africa than in the rest of the world – wheat and potatoes will suffer greater losses than those seen worldwide. ❑This finding raises crucial policy concerns about whether countries should focus on less sensitive crops or invest more in sensitive crops and generate heat- and drought-tolerant varieties.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Innovative financing for adaption to climate change ❑The authors present an overview of the current state of climate finance flows to food systems in Africa, then analyze the prevailing barriers that hinder the effective mobilization and use of climate finance for food systems adaptation in Africa. ❑They draw attention to the opportunities arising from a wide range of innovative financing tools and mechanisms to mobilize additional finance from both the public and the private sectors, with a focus on blended finance. ❑Lastly, the authors offer a detailed description of the key building blocks to a conducive enabling environment for climate-related investments in agri- food systems.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Exploring methane emissions ❑Assessment of current methane concentrations using satellite remote sensing data reveals a significant presence of methane emissions throughout the continent. ❑Methane levels vary according to the sowing, growing, and harvesting seasons, with more pronounced methane emissions during the harvesting season, indicating the agricultural sector's significant contribution to methane emissions. ❑Strategies such as timely harvesting to avoid rainy periods and managing residue treatment can effectively control methane outputs during this season.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Bioeconomy in global agri-food systems ❑The experiences of expanding the bioeconomy in selected African, Asian, and Latin American countries (Ghana, Namibia, Uganda, Thailand, and Brazil) demonstrate the importance of elevating the bioeconomy as a top policy priority. ❑Linking bioeconomy initiatives with entrepreneurship and innovations in bio-based sectors, alongside knowledge sharing across borders, will improve coherence in the bioeconomy's sustainability objectives with climate and biodiversity and other multilateral agreements. ❑Harnessing natural resources must be accompanied by cross-sectoral collaboration.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Nutrition and circular bioeconomy opportunities ❑Authors explore the potential of a nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy in transforming Africa’s food systems, examining both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. ❑they authors seek to provide a better understanding of how to harness the bioeconomy’s principles to achieve sustainable development goals, ensuring that food systems not only support economic growth but also advance health and environmental objectives across the continent.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Making a business case for bioeconomy ❑A report by the Malabo Montpellier Panel (2022) paved the way ❑Authors in this edition contend that the bioeconomy would be attractive to policymakers because it poses no risk to the environment and is appealing to consumers. ❑ They offer a review of existing bioeconomy opportunities for African countries, while also encouraging governments to embrace this novel concept and take advantage of development solutions based on the continent’s existing natural resources. .

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR A just energy transition ❑A review of the challenges and pathways for transitioning from fossil fuels and biomass energy to sustainable renewable energy in Africa indicates that this shift, a critical strategy for addressing climate change and ensuring sustainable development, is best achieved through a "just" transition. ❑The authors address the issues of sustainability and creating job opportunities for the continent's marginalized populations ❑They also stress the importance of access to affordable energy options, highlighting mini-grids and other decentralized energy solutions as vital technical pathways for achieving a just energy transition, particularly in remote and underserved regions.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Review progress in CAADP process and implementation ❑reviews Africa’s progress in implementing CAADP processes and progress on the CAADP Results Framework (RF) indicators. ❑This analysis highlights areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated, as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. ❑In particular, the chapter discusses progress in the CAADP implementation process and on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR IV. MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOECONOMIY INTO THE POST-MALABO CAADP AGENDA

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Converging climate change & bioeconomy agendas ❑win-win relationship between climate actions and expanding the bioeconomy, with lessons from the continent and beyond. ❑urgency of accelerating the implementation of national, continental, and regional climate change initiatives. ❑Transitioning to a bioeconomy would require clear strategies aligned with climate change targets and priorities. ❑creating a conducive environment to enable emerging companies to innovate, providing the training and education needed to drive a bioeconomy transition, and cooperating across borders.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Main Recommendations of the 2024 ATOR ❑Call on leaders to embrace African bioeconomy. ❑Pre-COP29 analysis reveals potential to transform continent's economy with unrivalled biological resources. ❑Call for greater R&D investment so Africa can lead modernized global economy in food and energy. ❑Call for an urgent energy transition towards green growth ❑New 10-year CAADP Strategy (2026– 2035) to embrace this move

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR

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