Slide 1

Slide 1 text

the Potential of the Milky Way adrian price-whelan kathryn johnston TIDAL STREAMS & david hogg

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

Tidal Streams Distances 10–100 kpc

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

Tidal Streams Distances 10–100 kpc ∼20 known around Milky Way (100 total?)

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

Tidal Streams Distances 10–100 kpc ∼20 known around Milky Way (100 total?) Sgr, Orphan, GD1, Pal 5 most prominent (Many other short streams, many w/ no progenitors)

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

Tidal Streams Stream morphology set by progenitor orbit Dynamically cold (small spreads in orbital properties) (and internal dynamics…)

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

Tidal Streams Stream morphology set by progenitor orbit Dynamically cold (small spreads in orbital properties) (and internal dynamics…) Can measure host galaxy potential

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

With near-future surveys we can measure 6D kinematics (l, b, D, µl, µb, v los )

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

RR Lyrae as dynamical tracers

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

RR Lyrae as dynamical tracers Bright, MV ~ 0.5

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

RR Lyrae as dynamical tracers Found in many streams (some may only have a few…) Bright, MV ~ 0.5

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

RR Lyrae as dynamical tracers Found in many streams (some may only have a few…) Bright, MV ~ 0.5 Easy to identify from light curve

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

RR Lyrae as dynamical tracers Found in many streams (some may only have a few…) Bright, MV ~ 0.5 Easy to identify from light curve Period-Luminosity relation for precise distances (2% uncertainty in relative distances)

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

“Orphan stream” (no uncertainty)

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

M giants (15-20%)

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

BHB stars (10%)

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

RR Lyrae with PL (2%)

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

RR Lyrae in Gaia post-launch estimates Transverse velocity error

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

post-launch estimates 15 km/s at 30 kpc RR Lyrae in Gaia

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

“Orphan stream” (no uncertainty)

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

HSTPROMO (~0.1 mas/yr)

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

Gaia (~0.03 mas/yr)

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

How do we use these data?

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

How do we use these data? We need fast generative models

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

How do we use these data? We need fast generative models N-body

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

Rewinder

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

potential center L1 L2 Stream formation

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

potential center L1 L2 Stream formation

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

t = 0 Price-Whelan et al. (2014) Rewinder L1 L2 stream stars progenitor

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

t = 0 Price-Whelan et al. (2014) Rewinder L1 L2

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

Rewinder t = -1 Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

Rewinder t = -1 evaluate likelihood Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

Rewinder t = -2 Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

Rewinder t = -2 evaluate likelihood Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

Rewinder t = -3 Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

⌧ub K unbinding time leading/trailing tail mass vs. time any parametrization per star progenitor potential (l, b, d, µl, µb, vr) (l, b, d, µl, µb, vr) Price-Whelan et al. (2014) Rewinder M(t)

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

⌧ub K unbinding time leading/trailing tail mass vs. time any parametrization per star progenitor potential (l, b, d, µl, µb, vr) (l, b, d, µl, µb, vr) marginalize out Price-Whelan et al. (2014) Rewinder M(t)

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

⌧ub K unbinding time leading/trailing tail mass vs. time any parametrization per star progenitor potential (l, b, d, µl, µb, vr) (l, b, d, µl, µb, vr) marginalize out FFFUUUU Price-Whelan et al. (2014) Rewinder M(t)

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

−100 −50 0 50 X [kpc] −100 −50 0 X [kpc] x “DATA” 8 “RR Lyrae” stars Gaia velocity errors 2% distance errors + progenitor Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

8 RR Lyrae stars Gaia velocity errors 2% distance error Price-Whelan et al. (2014)

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

This is fine as a test, but we are all liars.

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

We must move away from static, analytic potentials! With restrictive models, we will make uninterpretable, biased measurements

Slide 42

Slide 42 text

For example, Basis Function Expansions ⇢nlm = ˜ ⇢nl(r) Ylm(✓, ) nlm = ˜ nl(r) Ylm(✓, )

Slide 43

Slide 43 text

Current stream models can recover true parameters of true potential (from “observed” simulations)

Slide 44

Slide 44 text

Current stream models can recover true parameters of true potential (from “observed” simulations) Moving to more general potential models & real obs. uncertainties is going to hurt (but we have to do it)

Slide 45

Slide 45 text

Current stream models can recover true parameters of true potential (from “observed” simulations) Rewinder can do this, but more work to be done! Moving to more general potential models & real obs. uncertainties is going to hurt (but we have to do it)