Island  Climate  Update  174   Forecast  period:   March  –  May  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  4  of  March  2015   (12:30  PM  NZ  Ame)   3/03/15   1   

1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecAon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (February  2015)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaAon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaAon  (MJO)  diagnosAcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     3/03/15   2   Outline     

1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec

Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     3/03/15   4   

3/03/15   5   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml   

3/03/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   

SST  anomalies  January  2014   SST  anomalies  February  2014   3/03/15   7   

2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa

SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   4/03/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   9   

The  ENSO  Precipita

Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   3/03/15   11   hTp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/   

Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/03/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 12   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   

Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/03/15   13   From  hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluAon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf     

3/03/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   

ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       3/03/15   15   IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast   ProbabiliAes   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   MAM  2015   0%   53%   47%   JJA  2015   3%   36%   61%   SON  2015   13%   34%   53%   

3)  MJO  diagnos

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   3/03/15   20   

3/03/15   21   

3/03/15   22   METPI  rainfall  results   March – May 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Western) 20 30 50 ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Tokelau 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Wallis & Futuna 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High FSM 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Society Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tonga 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Fiji 33 33 33 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Vanuatu 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High New Caledonia 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 50 30 20 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. 

4/03/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   

6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   3/03/15   24   

3/03/15   25