Embracing Uncertainty - Speaker Deck

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Embracing Uncertainty Dan North @tastapod

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@tastapod A tale of two communities

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@tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred

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@tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred

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@tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred

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@tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred

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@tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred

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@tastapod A tale of two communities Bounded Centred

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@tastapod We fear uncertainty!

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@tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion

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@tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce simplistic answers

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@tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma

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@tastapod We fear uncertainty! Faith produces religion Complex questions produce simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort - uncertainty of structure

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@tastapod So we resist uncertainty We resist - uncertainty of scope - uncertainty of technology - uncertainty of effort - uncertainty of structure We resist uncertainty of the future

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@tastapod So we are kind of stuck, right?

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly Some unexpected bad things will happen

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly     Some unexpected bad things will happen

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly     Some unexpected bad things will happen

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly     Some unexpected bad things will happen

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@tastapod Deliberate Discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant Ignorance reduces suddenly     Some unexpected bad things will happen

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@tastapod Real Options

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@tastapod Real Options Options have value

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@tastapod Real Options Options have value Options expire

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@tastapod Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately

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@tastapod Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately “Never commit early unless you know why”

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@tastapod But you won’t believe me

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@tastapod But you won’t believe me Conﬁrmation bias

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@tastapod But you won’t believe me Conﬁrmation bias Fundamental attribution error

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@tastapod But you won’t believe me Conﬁrmation bias Fundamental attribution error Bias bias

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@tastapod But you won’t believe me Conﬁrmation bias Fundamental attribution error Bias bias but most of all, that craving for certainty!

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@tastapod Embracing uncertainty

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@tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope

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@tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology

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@tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort

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@tastapod Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort Embrace uncertainty of structure

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@tastapod tl; dr

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@tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpected

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@tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpectable

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@tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance

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@tastapod tl; dr Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance Embrace uncertainty — it’s inevitable!

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Thanks for listening @tastapod http:/ /dannorth.net [email protected]