@tastapod
A tale of two communities
Bounded
Centred
Slide 4
Slide 4 text
@tastapod
A tale of two communities
Bounded
Centred
Slide 5
Slide 5 text
@tastapod
A tale of two communities
Bounded
Centred
Slide 6
Slide 6 text
@tastapod
A tale of two communities
Bounded
Centred
Slide 7
Slide 7 text
@tastapod
A tale of two communities
Bounded
Centred
Slide 8
Slide 8 text
@tastapod
A tale of two communities
Bounded
Centred
Slide 9
Slide 9 text
@tastapod
We fear uncertainty!
Slide 10
Slide 10 text
@tastapod
We fear uncertainty!
Faith produces religion
Slide 11
Slide 11 text
@tastapod
We fear uncertainty!
Faith produces religion
Complex questions produce simplistic answers
Slide 12
Slide 12 text
@tastapod
We fear uncertainty!
Faith produces religion
Complex questions produce simplistic answers
Interpretation becomes dogma
Slide 13
Slide 13 text
@tastapod
We fear uncertainty!
Faith produces religion
Complex questions produce simplistic answers
Interpretation becomes dogma
We would rather be wrong than uncertain
Slide 14
Slide 14 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
Slide 15
Slide 15 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist
Slide 16
Slide 16 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist
- uncertainty of scope
Slide 17
Slide 17 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist
- uncertainty of scope
- uncertainty of technology
Slide 18
Slide 18 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist
- uncertainty of scope
- uncertainty of technology
- uncertainty of effort
Slide 19
Slide 19 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist
- uncertainty of scope
- uncertainty of technology
- uncertainty of effort
- uncertainty of structure
Slide 20
Slide 20 text
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist
- uncertainty of scope
- uncertainty of technology
- uncertainty of effort
- uncertainty of structure
We resist uncertainty of the future
Slide 21
Slide 21 text
@tastapod
So we are kind of stuck,
right?
Slide 22
Slide 22 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Slide 23
Slide 23 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
Slide 24
Slide 24 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Slide 25
Slide 25 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Ignorance reduces suddenly
Slide 26
Slide 26 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Ignorance reduces suddenly
Some unexpected bad things will happen
Slide 27
Slide 27 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Ignorance reduces suddenly
Some unexpected bad things will happen
Slide 28
Slide 28 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Ignorance reduces suddenly
Some unexpected bad things will happen
Slide 29
Slide 29 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Ignorance reduces suddenly
Some unexpected bad things will happen
Slide 30
Slide 30 text
@tastapod
Deliberate Discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant
Ignorance reduces suddenly
Some unexpected bad things will happen
Slide 31
Slide 31 text
@tastapod
Real Options
Slide 32
Slide 32 text
@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value
Slide 33
Slide 33 text
@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value
Options expire
Slide 34
Slide 34 text
@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value
Options expire
Commit deliberately
Slide 35
Slide 35 text
@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value
Options expire
Commit deliberately
“Never commit early unless you know why”
Slide 36
Slide 36 text
@tastapod
But you won’t believe me
Slide 37
Slide 37 text
@tastapod
But you won’t believe me
Confirmation bias
Slide 38
Slide 38 text
@tastapod
But you won’t believe me
Confirmation bias
Fundamental attribution error
Slide 39
Slide 39 text
@tastapod
But you won’t believe me
Confirmation bias
Fundamental attribution error
Bias bias
Slide 40
Slide 40 text
@tastapod
But you won’t believe me
Confirmation bias
Fundamental attribution error
Bias bias
but most of all, that craving for certainty!
Slide 41
Slide 41 text
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Slide 42
Slide 42 text
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Slide 43
Slide 43 text
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Embrace uncertainty of technology
Slide 44
Slide 44 text
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Embrace uncertainty of technology
Embrace uncertainty of effort
Slide 45
Slide 45 text
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Embrace uncertainty of technology
Embrace uncertainty of effort
Embrace uncertainty of structure
Slide 46
Slide 46 text
@tastapod
tl; dr
Slide 47
Slide 47 text
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpected
Slide 48
Slide 48 text
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable
Slide 49
Slide 49 text
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable
Anticipate ignorance
Slide 50
Slide 50 text
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable
Anticipate ignorance
Embrace uncertainty — it’s inevitable!
Slide 51
Slide 51 text
Thanks for listening
@tastapod
http:/
/dannorth.net
dan@dannorth.net