Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight against plant disease

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Senior Research Scientist - Bioeconomic Modeller, DPIRD WA Dr Adam Sparks

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Research Fellow University of Southern Queensland, Centre for Crop Health Dr Paul Melloy

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Current Losses 40% IPPC Secretariat. 2021. Scientific review of the impact of climate change on plant pests – A global challenge to prevent and mitigate plant pest risks in agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. Rome. FAO on behalf of the IPPC Secretariat. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4769en

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Major Pathogen Groups

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Prokaryotes

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Oomycetes Penn State Department of Plant Pathology & Environmental Microbiology Archives, Penn State University, Bugwood.org Charles Averre, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org

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Parasitic plants USDA APHIS PPQ– Oxford, North Carolina, USDA APHIS PPQ, Bugwood.org

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Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A. 2000. Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02

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Historical Notes Donald Groth, Louisiana State University AgCenter, Bugwood.org Dr Parthasarathy Seethapathy, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Bugwood.org

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Tom Creswell, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org

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Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment

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Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment

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Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment

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Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment Disease!

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Observed Effects of Climate Change on Plant Diseases

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Relationships ● Ability/Inability to infect ● Overwintering ● Host phenology ● Feedback loops

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Figure 24.2: Garrett et al. 2021, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00024-4 Interactions and potential outcomes

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Migrations

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Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A. 2000. Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02

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Pierce’s Disease ENSA-Montpellier, Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Montpellier, Bugwood.org

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PD Migration?

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Changes in the Pathogen Pathogen Host Environment Disease!

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Stripe (Yellow) Rust in the USA Gerald Holmes, Strawberry Center, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Bugwood.org

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Effect of CO2 on plant diseases

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Winners and Losers Crop Disease CO2 effect References Barley Powdery Mildew Increased resistance Hibberd et al. (1996) Wheat Crown rot Powdery Mildew Leaf & stem rust Fusarium head blight Increased susceptibility – genotype dependent Increased susceptibility Lower susceptibility – genotype dependant Melloy et al. (2010), (2014) Bencze et al. (2013) Rice Blast Nematodes (Psilenchus) Increased susceptibility Increased populations Kobayashi et al. (2006) Li et al. (2007) Maize Smut Increase/decrease Pathogen species dependent Manning & Tiedemann (1995) Arabidopsis Powdery mildew Increased susceptibility – Infection duration dependant Lake and Wade, 2009 Stylosanthes Anthracnose Induced resistance Rapid evolution to overcome resistance Chakraborty and Datta (2003) (2004)

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Effect of CO2 on crown rot in wheat Glasshouse trials Interaction between temperature and CO2 Controlled environment facility Genotype dependant disease response to CO2

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Free Air Carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) trials

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CO2 effect not as simple as first imagined Kazan (2018) • CO2 effects can be mediated by other environmental effects • Temperature, O3, Nitrogen, soil moisture • CO2 affects phytohormone defence pathways. • CO2 affects mycotoxin biosynthesis.

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Evidence From Simulated (Modelling) Experiments

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Current potato late blight risk

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Future potato late blight risk Kenya Rwanda Malawi

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Countries with high emphasis on potato and high malnutrition

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Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3). RICEPEST 2000 2030 2050 0 10 20 30 40 25 50 75 100 125 25 50 75 100 125 25 50 75 100 125 Day of Season Leaf Coverage by Bacterial Leaf Blight Lesions (%) Emission Scenario A1B A2 B1 Base Bacterial Blight in TZA Leaf Blast and Bacterial Blight in Tanzanian Rice

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Figure 1: Garrett et al. 2006, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420 Potential effects and research needs

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Ruling Out Competing Explanations • Pathogen known to have been present • Genetic compositions have not shifted • Cultural practices have not changed • Requirements and interactions are well understood • Change has been observed long enough to establish a convincing trend • Need long-term records

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Evidence of Changing Patterns

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Summary

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