どうしてバントは減らないのか〜時間割引の視点から〜

by nowism

Slide 1

Slide 1 text

Ͳ͏ͯ͠ ૹΓόϯτΛ ΍ΊΒΕͳ͍ͷ͔ なういず

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

ͳ͏͍ͣ !OPXJTN@TQPSUT ⚽ɿദϨΠιϧαϙʢݱࡏҐʣ ⚾ɿڊਓϑΝϯʢલ೥༏উʣ ɿ౦ژେֶେֶӃ ೝ஌ՊֶΛݚڀ ˠෆ߹ཧͳҙࢥܾఆʹڵຯ オンラインでは⾮公開

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

ＮＥＸＴＮＥＸＴ #3

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

⚽ ⚾ αοΧʔͱ໺ٿ͔Βߟ͑Δ

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

ʮྲྀΕʯ ͷਖ਼ମΛߟ͑Δ なういず

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

໺ٿʹ͓͚Δʜ όϯτ ͕ݮΒͳ͍ཧ༝

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

Ξ΢τ̍ͭΛ٘ਜ਼ʹ ϥϯφʔΛਐΊΔ ઓज़ ˞ຊ೔͸εΫΠζ΍ηʔϑςΟʔόϯτ͸ѻΘͳ͍

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

όϯτͷඇޮ཰ੑ

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

όϯτͷඇޮ཰ੑ ೥ൃද ϝδϟʔϦʔάΛ෼ੳ όϯτ͕༗ޮͳͷ͸ ଧྗͷ௿͍౤खͷΈ

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

όϯτͷඇޮ཰ੑ όϯτ͕উར֬཰ΛߴΊΔ γνϡΤʔγϣϯ ˠճཪແࢮྥͷΈ

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

ಘ఺֬཰ˍ ظ଴ಘ఺ Լ͛Δ

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

ࢦఠ ಘ఺֬཰ ظ଴ಘ఺ ఺ ఺

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

ଛӹ෼ذ఺ ଧ཰ ʻશ໺ख

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

όϯτ͸ݮ͍ͬͯͳ͍ ࢀߟɿhttp://baseballschole.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2016/02/post-30ef.html オンラインでは⾮公開

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

όϯτΛ ͯ͠͠·͏ཧ༝ ˠ࠷ѱͷ γφϦΦΛճආ

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

࠷ѱͷγφϦΦ ซࡴ ಘ఺֬཰ ظ଴ಘ఺ ఺ ఺

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

όϯτͷϝϦοτ ᶃซࡴΛճආͰ͖Δ ᶄଧͰಘ఺͕ೖΔ ᶅҙදΛ͚ͭΔ

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

όϯτͷϝϦοτ ᶃซࡴΛճආͰ͖Δ ˠଛࣦͷաେධՁͰઆ໌ ᶄଧͰಘ఺͕ೖΔ ᶅҙදΛ͚ͭΔ

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

όϯτͷϝϦοτ ᶃซࡴΛճආͰ͖Δ ˠଛࣦͷաେධՁͰઆ໌ ᶄଧͰಘ఺͕ೖΔ ˠׂ࣌ؒҾͰઆ໌͍ͨ͠ ᶅҙදΛ͚ͭΔ

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

2ͲͪΒΛબͼ·͔͢ "໌೔ສԁ΋Β͑Δ #೥ޙʹສԁ΋Β͑Δ

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

2ͲͪΒΛબͼ·͔͢ "໌೔ສԁ΋Β͑Δ #೥ޙʹສԁ΋Β͑Δ কདྷͷใुΛ ׂΓҾ͍ͯධՁ͢Δ

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

ׂ࣌ؒҾɿ૒ۂత ࣌ؒ Ձ ஋ কདྷతͳใुΛ ׂΓҾ͍ͯධՁ ˞਺෼ͰׂҾ͖Λ ࣮ࣔͨ͠ݧ΋ʢ'"2ࢀরʣ

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

ಘ఺·Ͱͷ ࣌ؒ ૹΓόϯτͰߟ͑Δͱ ௕͍ ୹͍ ແࢮྥͷՁ஋Λ ׂΓҾ͍ͯධՁ͢Δ

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

σʔλɿ/1#ͷଧ੮݁Ռ d ग़య ɿ/1#ͷ)1 http://npb.jp/ ಺༰ ɿ֤৔໘ʹͳ͔ͬͯΒ ଧ఺͕ه࿥͞ΕΔ·Ͱͷଧ੮਺ ˞೥ؒͰճҎ্ه࿥͞Εͨ৔໘ ʹຖ೔ճ͸ه࿥͞Ε͍ͯΔ

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

όϯτલ όϯτޙ ॴཁ ฏۉଧ੮ ॴཁ ฏۉଧ੮

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

όϯτલ ॴཁฏۉଧ੮લ ॴཁฏۉଧ੮ޙ ࠩ෼ ظ଴ಘ఺લ ظ଴ಘ఺ޙ ࠩ෼

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

όϯτɿಘ఺·Ͱ̍ଧ੮΄Ͳۙ͘ͳΔ

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

όϯτɿಘ఺·Ͱ̍ଧ੮΄Ͳۙ͘ͳΔ

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

όϯτɿಘ఺·Ͱ̍ଧ੮΄Ͳۙ͘ͳΔ ׂ࣌ؒҾɿ૒ۂత ࣌ؒ Ձ ஋ ޙ લ ׂҾ౓ όϯτޙঢ়گ ʻόϯτલঢ়گ

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

ׂ࣌ؒҾ ظ଴ಘ఺ ࣌ؒ Ձ ஋ ޙ લ ظ ଴ ஋ ޙ લ × όϯτޙͷํ͕ ͍͍ঢ়گͱ൑அ͞ΕΔՄೳੑ

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

όϯτલ ॴཁฏۉଧ੮લ ॴཁฏۉଧ੮ޙ ࠩ෼ ظ଴ಘ఺લ ظ଴ಘ఺ޙ ࠩ෼

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

ಘ఺·Ͱͷ͕࣌ؒ୹͘ͳΔ΄Ͳ ظ଴ಘ఺͕ݮΔ -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

ظ଴ಘ఺͸େଛ͕ͩ ͦͷ෼ಘ఺·Ͱͷଧ੮͸୹͘ͳΔ -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 ࢮྥ ͔Βͷ όϯτ

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

όϯτͷϝϦοτ ᶃซࡴΛճආͰ͖Δ ˠଛࣦͷաେධՁͰઆ໌ ᶄଧͰಘ఺͕ೖΔ ˠׂ࣌ؒҾͰઆ໌ ᶅҙදΛ͚ͭΔ

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

ಘ఺·Ͱͷ ࣌ؒ ௕͍ ୹͍ όϯτલͷՁ஋Λ ׂΓҾ͍ͯධՁ͢Δ ࣌ؒ Ձ ஋ ޙ લ

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

ಘ఺·Ͱͷ ࣌ؒ ௕͍ ୹͍ ࣄલ஌͕ࣝ͋ͬͯ΋ όϯτલͷγνϡΤʔγϣϯ͕ աখධՁ͞ΕΔՄೳੑ ࣌ؒ Ձ ஋ ޙ લ

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

&OKPZʂ 以下、FAQです ࣌ؒ Ձ ஋ ޙ લ

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

"-5தʹӈਤͰࣔͨ͠ͱ͓Γɺ؂ಜ͸ ɾݱࡏͷ৔໘ ɾૹΓόϯτ੒ޭ࣌ͷ৔໘ ɾʢૹΓόϯτࣦഊ࣌ͷ৔໘ʣ Λఱṝʹ͔͚Δஈ֊͕͋Δͱߟ͑ΒΕ·͢ɻ ͜ͷ࣌ɺૹΓόϯτ੒ޭ࣌ͷ৔໘ׂ͕࣌ؒҾͷӨڹͰ ૬ରతʹັྗతʹݟ͑ͯʢඇޮ཰తͩͱ஌͍ͬͯͯ΋ʣ όϯτͯ͠͠·͏Մೳੑ͕͋Γͦ͏ͩͱߟ͑·ͨ͠ɻ 2ૹΓόϯτͰಘ఺·Ͱଧ੮෼ૣ͘ͳΔͷ͸ɺૹΓόϯ τͷଧ੮෼Ͱ͋Γɺׂ࣌ؒҾ͸ؔ܎ͳ͍ͷͰ͸ʁ

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

"આ໌͕൥ࡶʹͳΔ͜ͱݏ͍ɺଧ੮਺ͱॴཁ࣌ؒ ʹൺྫؔ܎͕͋ΔͷͰ໰୊ͳ͍ͱ൑அ͠·ͨ͠ɻ ͪͳΈʹɺ/1#Ͱ͸̍ٿ͋ͨΓͷ౤ٿ͕࣌ؒ ඵ˞ ̍ଧ੮͋ͨΓͷ౤ٿ਺͕ٿ˞ Ͱ͢ͷ Ͱɺଧܸ࣌ؒ΍ަ୅࣌ؒ΋ೖΕΔͱɺଧ੮͋ͨΓ ͷॴཁ࣌ؒ͸ฏۉ෼d෼ඵఔ౓ʹͳΔͱࢥΘ Ε·͢ɻ ˞IUUQXXXCBTFCBMMMBCKQDPMVNOFOUSZ ˞IUUQTCBTFCBMMEBUBKQQ 2ׂ࣌ؒҾΛѻ͏ͷʹࡍ͠ɺ ࣌ؒͰͳ͘ଧ੮਺Λѻͬͨཧ༝͸ʁ

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

"ಉ༷ͷݒ೦Λࢲ΋͍ͯ͠ΔͨΊɺ-5Ͱ͸ʮׂ࣌ؒҾͷ Ұछʯͱઆ໌͍ͨ͠·ͨ͠ɻ Ұൠతʹ͸਺िؒd਺೥ͷׂҾ཰Λݕ౼͢Δׂ࣌ؒҾݚ ڀͰ͕͢ɺͳ͔ʹ͸୹࣌ؒ ෼ͱ෼ͷൺֱ Λ͍ͯ͠Δ ݚڀ΋͋Δ˞ ͨΊɺຊ-5ʹׂ͍ͭͯ࣌ؒҾͱݺΜͰ΋ࠩ ͠ࢧ͑ͳ͍Մೳੑ΋͋Γ·͢ɻ ※1 McClure, S. M., Ericson, K. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G., & Cohen, J. D. (2007). Time discounting for primary rewards. Journal of neuroscience, 27(21), 5796-5804. 2ׂ࣌ؒҾݚڀͰ͸௕ظؒͷ࣌ؒࠩΛѻ͏͜ͱ͕΄ͱΜ ͲͰ͋ΔͨΊɺଧऀ෼ఔ౓ͷ࣌ؒࠩΛׂ࣌ؒҾͱͯ͠ѻ ͏ͷ͸ෆద౰Ͱ͸ʁ

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

"Α͘Ҿ༻͞Ε͍ͯΔஶ໊ͳ΋ͷͱͯ͠.D$MVSFΒ Λ঺հ͠·͢ɻ ͜ͷ࣮ݧͰ͸ɺ ࣌ؒͷҿ৯͕ېࢭ͞Ε޴͕ס͍࣮ͨݧऀ͕ɺ୒ͷ͏ͪ બ୒ͨ͠৚݅Ͱਫణ ใु Λ΋Β͑Δ΋ͷͰ͢ɻ୒Ͱ͸ใु͕΋Β͑Δ࣌ ͕ؒ଎͍&BSMZ0QUJPOͱ஗͍-BUFS0QUJPO͕༻ҙ͞ΕɺͦΕͧΕͷબ୒ࢶͰ ใुΛ΋Β͑Δ·Ͱͷ࣌ؒ EFMBZ ͱใुͷྔ .BHOJUVEF Λௐ੔͠ɺ࣌ؒ ׂҾ཰͓Αͼ೴׆ಈʹ͍ͭͯܭଌ͍ͯ͠·͢ɻ݁Ռɺࠜຊతͳใु ਫణ Λ ༻͍Δ͜ͱ୹࣌ؒͰ΋૒ۂతͳׂ࣌ؒҾ͕ݟΒΕΔ͜ͱΛࣔ͠·ͨ͠ɻ ໺ٿͱ͸ແؔ܎ͷ࣮ݧͰ͕͢ɺ໨ͷલʹ͋Δใुʹׇ๬͍ͯ͠Δঢ়ଶͰͷ ׂ࣌ؒҾʹ͍ͭͯݕ౼͍ͯ͠Δͱ͍͏఺ͰɺૹΓόϯτঢ়گͱͷڞ௨఺΋͋ Γɺ͋Δఔ౓ࢀߟʹͰ͖Δݚڀͩͱߟ͍͑ͯ·͢ɻ ෆษڧ΋͋Γଟ͘Λ঺հͰ͖ͣਃ͠༁ͳ͞Λײ͡·͢ ※ McClure, S. M., Ericson, K. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G., & Cohen, J. D. (2007). Time discounting for primary rewards. Journal of neuroscience, 27(21), 5796-5804. 2୹࣌ؒͷׂ࣌ؒҾʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɺͲͷΑ͏ͳઌߦݚڀ͕͋Γ·͔͢ʁ

Slide 42

Slide 42 text

#BMMHBNF@&DPOPNJDT 4QPSUTº &DPOPNJDT ⽁4QPSUT ه࿥ͷਖ਼֬ੑ ࿈ଓੑ ൓෮ੑ ϧʔϧมԽͳͲ ࣮ݧ ෼ੳʹ࠷దͳ୊ࡐ ⽁&DPOPNJDT ͓ۚΛؚΊਓͷΠϯηϯςΟϒΛѻ͍ ҙࢥܾఆͷϓϩηεΛ௥ٻ͢Δ෼໺΋ؚΉ