INTERNATIONAL SEO FORECASTING: How to Determine the Investment Needed and the Potential Returns When Entering New Markets. James Brockbank, Digitaloft. International Search Summit 2024.

JAMES BROCKBANK. Managing Director & Founder, Digitaloft. speakerdeck.com/brockbankjames /in/james-brockbank/ @brockbankjames ● Been in SEO since 2009, running an agency since 2014. ● Managing Director & founder of Digitaloft, a UK-based SEO and digital PR agency with a team of 70+ specialists. ● Still very much a hands-on, practising SEO. ● Full-stack SEO; extensive experience across technical SEO, content marketing and link building. ● Previously spoken at events including BrightonSEO, Pubcon, SMX, WordCamp & more.

“IT DEPENDS” ISN’T A GOOD ENOUGH ANSWER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS IMPACT THAT SEO CAN DELIVER.

“IT DEPENDS” ISN’T A GOOD ENOUGH ANSWER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS IMPACT THAT SEO CAN DELIVER.

“IT DEPENDS” ISN’T A GOOD ENOUGH ANSWER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS IMPACT THAT SEO CAN DELIVER. revenue

“IT DEPENDS” ISN’T A GOOD ENOUGH ANSWER WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS IMPACT THAT SEO CAN DELIVER. revenue ROI

SEO FORECASTING.

https://learningseo.io/seo_roadmap/deepen-knowledge/management/seo-forecasting/

SEO FORECASTING.

SEO FORECASTING.

(AS) ACCURATE (AS POSSIBLE) FORECASTING NEEDS HISTORICAL FIRST-PARTY DATA: SERP INSIGHTS. TRAFFIC. CONVERSIONS. ● Rankings ● CTR ● Clicks ● MoM growth trends ● Seasonality ● Transactions / Conversions ● Conversion rate ● AOV

AN SEO FORECAST SHOULD PREDICT THE EXPECTED OUTCOME AND ROI OF RESOURCE ALLOCATION:

SEO OFTEN INVOLVES MAKING STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS.

SEO OFTEN INVOLVES MAKING STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS. What opportunities exist to create new organic revenue streams?

Entering new markets with SEO can unlock huge growth potential.

HISTORICAL DATA TO USE FOR NEW TERRITORIES, YOU WON’T HAVE IF YOU’RE CONSIDERING ENTERING FORECASTING.

HISTORICAL DATA TO USE FOR NEW TERRITORIES, YOU WON’T HAVE IF YOU’RE CONSIDERING ENTERING FORECASTING. You can’t forecast based on first-party data for a market you’re not trading in.

BEFORE ENTERING A NEW MARKET, YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO ANSWER: What is the size of the opportunity in a new market we’re considering?

BEFORE ENTERING A NEW MARKET, YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO ANSWER: What is the size of the opportunity in a new market we’re considering? How competitive are the SERPS for the market?

BEFORE ENTERING A NEW MARKET, YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO ANSWER: What is the size of the opportunity in a new market we’re considering? How competitive are the SERPS for the market? How much do we need to invest to catch up to existing players in the market?

BEFORE ENTERING A NEW MARKET, YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO ANSWER: What is the size of the opportunity in a new market we’re considering? How competitive are the SERPS for the market? How much do we need to invest to catch up to existing players in the market? Which markets make the most sense to invest into?

ASSUMPTIONS & THIRD-PARTY DATA. How do you forecast without historical data in a new market?

YOU CAN FORECAST A NEW MARKET’S POTENTIAL USING: COMPETITOR INSIGHTS. ASSUMPTIONS. TOOLS & DATA SOURCES. ● Estimated organic traffic ● % of transactional & commercial organic traffic ● Unique referring domains ● Indexed pages ● AOV ● Organic conversion rate ● Average cost per link ● Average cost per page of content ● Semrush ● Ahrefs ● Google Sheets / Excel

HOW TO FORECAST A NEW MARKET’S SEO POTENTIAL: 1. Identify ‘local’ competitors.

HOW TO FORECAST A NEW MARKET’S SEO POTENTIAL: 1. 2. Identify ‘local’ competitors. Estimate competitors’ organic search traffic.

HOW TO FORECAST A NEW MARKET’S SEO POTENTIAL: 1. 2. 3. Identify ‘local’ competitors. Estimate competitors’ organic search traffic. Isolate out commercial & transactional traffic.

HOW TO FORECAST A NEW MARKET’S SEO POTENTIAL: 1. 2. 3. 4. Identify ‘local’ competitors. Estimate competitors’ organic search traffic. Isolate out commercial & transactional traffic. Estimate organic revenue potential.

HOW TO FORECAST A NEW MARKET’S SEO POTENTIAL: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Identify ‘local’ competitors. Estimate competitors’ organic search traffic. Isolate out commercial & transactional traffic. Estimate organic revenue potential. Compare multiple markets.

WHY THIS FRAMEWORK? Quickly gain an insight into how much traffic established brands are getting.

WHY THIS FRAMEWORK? Quickly gain an insight into how much traffic established brands are getting. It doesn’t require detailed keyword research at this stage.

WHY THIS FRAMEWORK? Quickly gain an insight into how much traffic established brands are getting. It doesn’t require detailed keyword research at this stage. It establishes minimum revenue potential based on traffic that could convert.

WHY THIS FRAMEWORK? Quickly gain an insight into how much traffic established brands are getting. It doesn’t require detailed keyword research at this stage. It establishes minimum revenue potential based on traffic that could convert. It lets you define baseline requirements of content and links; the foundations of your investment.

FORECASTING SCENARIO. An eCommerce retailer of window furnishings (blinds, curtains and shutters) currently trading in the UK. The retailer is looking to expand into Europe and is considering which markets have the potential to offer the best ROI. I’m using this example as I’ve previously worked in the market so can share insights with confidence.

https://digitaloft.co.uk/international-seo-forecasting/

IDENTIFYING LOCAL COMPETITORS IDE IDENTIFYING LOCAL COMPETI PETITORS CAL COMPETITORS IDENTIFYING LOCAL ID S IDENTIFYING LOCAL C L COMPETITORS IDENTIFYING LOCAL CAL COMPETITORS IDENTIFYING LOCAL COMPETITORS

USE THE ‘KEYWORD OVERVIEW’ TOOL TO SEARCH BROAD KEYWORDS THAT COVER THE BUSINESS’ MAIN PRODUCTS OR SERVICES. E.G. JALOEZIEEN (BLINDS) / GORDIJNEN (CURTAINS)

ANALYSE THE TOP 10 RANKING URLS FOR THESE BROAD TERMS TO IDENTIFY PROMINENT LOCAL COMPETITORS IN THE MARKET.

Like-for-like businesses.

Like-for-like businesses. subfolders of wider businesses.

IDENTIFYING LOCAL COMPETITORS: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS kwantum.nl/gordijnen-raamdecoratie veneta.com 123jaloezie.nl hema.nl/wonen-slapen/raamdecoratie leenbakker.nl/gordijnen-en-raamdeco gamma.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie raamdecoratie.com karwei.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie topjaloezieen.nl veluxshop.nl ↓ (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set)

ESTIMATING COMPETITORS’ ORGANIC ESTIMATING COMPETITORS’ ORGANIC ’ ORGANIC TRAFFIC ESTIMATING COMP ESTI FFIC ESTIMATI C TRAFFIC ESTIMATING COMPETITORS’ ORGANIC ORGANIC TRAFFIC ESTIMATING COMPETITORS’

USE THE ‘ORGANIC RESEARCH’ TOOL TO COLLECT ORGANIC TRAFFIC ESTIMATES FOR EACH COMPETITOR IN THE MARKET.

ESTIMATING COMPETITORS’ ORGANIC TRAFFIC: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS kwantum.nl/gordijnen-raamdecoratie 149,700 veneta.com 97,000 123jaloezie.nl 81,600 hema.nl/wonen-slapen/raamdecoratie 67,600 leenbakker.nl/gordijnen-en-raamdeco 66,100 gamma.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 58,200 raamdecoratie.com 44,500 karwei.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 33,400 topjaloezieen.nl 28,200 veluxshop.nl 24,300 ↓ ↓ 784,600 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set)

ISOLATING OUT COMMERCIAL & TRAN ISOLATING OUT COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC SACTIONAL TRAFFIC ISOLATING OUT CO ISO FIC ISOLA CIAL & OLATING OUT COMMERCIAL & TRANSA TRANSACTIONAL TRAFFIC ISOLATING OUT COMMERCIAL &

GRAB THE BREAKDOWN OF COMMERCIAL, TRANSACTIONAL & INFORMATIONAL INTENT TRAFFIC FOR EACH COMPETITOR.

ISOLATING OUT COMMERCIAL & TRANSACTIONAL TRAFFIC: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS kwantum.nl/gordijnen-raamdecoratie 149,700 21,800 98,900 47,500 veneta.com 97,000 10,800 35,300 51,300 123jaloezie.nl 81,600 10,300 50,500 60,300 hema.nl/wonen-slapen/raamdecoratie 67,600 12,800 32,600 12,500 leenbakker.nl/gordijnen-en-raamdeco 66,100 7,800 31,300 26,200 gamma.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 58,200 3,300 49,700 17,700 raamdecoratie.com 44,500 7,300 20,200 37,800 karwei.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 33,400 2,500 25,300 9,600 topjaloezieen.nl 28,200 5,300 14,800 20,000 veluxshop.nl 24,300 4,100 15,900 19,200 ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 784,600 115,679 440,151 389,900 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set)

UNDERSTANDING LINK INSIGHTS UNDE UNDERSTANDING LINK INSIGH NSIGHTS DING LINK INSIGHTS UNDERSTANDING L UN TS UNDERSTANDING LINK G LINK INSIGHTS UNDERSTANDING L DING LINK INSIGHTS UNDERSTANDING LINK INSIGHTS Bonus step #1

USE AHREFS TO COLLECT THE # OF UNIQUE REFERRING DOMAINS FOR EACH COMPETITOR. EXCLUDE DOMAINS

UNDERSTANDING LINK COMPETITIVENESS: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS kwantum.nl/gordijnen-raamdecoratie 149,700 21,800 98,900 47,500 166 veneta.com 97,000 10,800 35,300 51,300 840 123jaloezie.nl 81,600 10,300 50,500 60,300 246 hema.nl/wonen-slapen/raamdecoratie 67,600 12,800 32,600 12,500 65 leenbakker.nl/gordijnen-en-raamdeco 66,100 7,800 31,300 26,200 127 gamma.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 58,200 3,300 49,700 17,700 37 raamdecoratie.com 44,500 7,300 20,200 37,800 458 karwei.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 33,400 2,500 25,300 9,600 48 topjaloezieen.nl 28,200 5,300 14,800 20,000 279 veluxshop.nl 24,300 4,100 15,900 19,200 111 ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 784,600 115,679 440,151 389,900 201 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set)

UNDERSTANDING PAGE COUNTS UNDER UNDERSTANDING PAGE COUN E COUNTS DING PAGE COUNTS UNDERSTANDING P UN TS UNDERSTANDING PAG NG PAGE COUNTS UNDERSTANDING P DING PAGE COUNTS UNDERSTANDING PAGE COUNTS Bonus step #2

GRAB THE TOTAL COUNT OF INDEXED PAGES FOR EACH COMPETITOR IN THE MARKET.

UNDERSTANDING PAGE COUNTS: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS kwantum.nl/gordijnen-raamdecoratie 149,700 21,800 98,900 47,500 166 152 veneta.com 97,000 10,800 35,300 51,300 840 1662 123jaloezie.nl 81,600 10,300 50,500 60,300 246 1680 hema.nl/wonen-slapen/raamdecoratie 67,600 12,800 32,600 12,500 65 633 leenbakker.nl/gordijnen-en-raamdeco 66,100 7,800 31,300 26,200 127 1027 gamma.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 58,200 3,300 49,700 17,700 37 158 raamdecoratie.com 44,500 7,300 20,200 37,800 458 904 karwei.nl/assortiment/l/raamdecoratie 33,400 2,500 25,300 9,600 48 185 topjaloezieen.nl 28,200 5,300 14,800 20,000 279 342 veluxshop.nl 24,300 4,100 15,900 19,200 111 167 ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 784,600 115,679 440,151 389,900 201 380 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set)

UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGHTS UNDER UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGH INSIGHTS DING THE INSIGHTS UNDERSTANDING T UN HTS UNDERSTANDING THE NG THE INSIGHTS UNDERSTANDING T DING THE INSIGHTS UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGHTS

UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGHTS WE’VE COLLECTD: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 784,600 115,679 440,151 389,900 201 380 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set) 1 The total estimated traffic being earned by main players in the market. 1

UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGHTS WE’VE COLLECTD: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 784,600 115,679 440,151 389,900 201 380 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set) 1 2 The total estimated traffic being earned by main players in the market. 1 2 The total estimated traffic with a ‘want to buy’ intent (commercial + transactional).

UNDERSTANDING THE INSIGHTS WE’VE COLLECTD: DOMAIN / SUBFOLDER ESTIMATED ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M COMMERCIAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M TRANSACTIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M INFORMATIONAL INTENT ORGANIC TRAFFIC P/M DR30+ REFERRING DOMAINS INDEXED URLS ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 784,600 115,679 440,151 389,900 201 380 (Total across competitor set p/m) (Average across competitor set) 1 2 3 The total estimated traffic being earned by main players in the market. 1 2 3 The total estimated traffic with a ‘want to buy’ intent (commercial + transactional). Average competitive insights to benchmark and forecast against.

USING THE INSIGHTS USING THE INSIGH USING THE INSIGHTS USING T INSIGHTS SING THE INSIGHTS USING THE INSIGHT USING TH NSIGHTS USING THE INSIGHTS U NG THE INSIGHTS USING THE INSIGHT SING THE INSIGHTS USING THE INSIGHTS

ASSUMPTIONS & VARIABLES: You need to know an estimated cost per link.

ASSUMPTIONS & VARIABLES: You need to know an estimated cost per link. You need to know an estimated cost per translated / localised page of content.

ASSUMPTIONS & VARIABLES: You need to know an estimated cost per link. You need to know an estimated cost per translated / localised page of content. What’s your estimated organic AOV and organic conversion rate for the market?

ASSUMPTIONS & VARIABLES: You need to know an estimated cost per link. You need to know an estimated cost per translated / localised page of content. What’s your estimated organic AOV and organic conversion rate for the market? What market share are you targeting in the territory?

FORECAST INPUTS: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ORDER VALUE [ORGANIC] €200.00 ESTIMATED CONVERSION RATE [ORGANIC] 2.00% TARGET MARKET SHARE [ORGANIC] 5.00% MONTHLY COMMERCIAL + TRANSACTIONAL INTENT TRAFFIC [ORGANIC] 27,682 MONTHLY CONVERSIONS [ORGANIC] 554 MONTHLY REVENUE POTENTIAL [ORGANIC] €110,726 ANNUAL COMMERCIAL + TRANSACTIONAL INTENT TRAFFIC [ORGANIC] 332,178 ANNUAL CONVERSIONS [ORGANIC] 6,644 ANNUAL REVENUE POTENTIAL [ORGANIC] €1,328,712 AVERAGE COST PER LINK €500.00 AVERAGE COST PER PAGE €200.00 ESTIMATED COST OF LINKS €100,333.33 ESTIMATED COST OF CONTENT €76,000.00 ESTIMATED OTHER SEO COSTS €25,000.00 ESTIMATED COST TO COMPETE €201,333.33 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (9 MONTHS) €22,370.37 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (12 MONTHS) €16,777.78 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (18 MONTHS) €11,185.19 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (24 MONTHS) €8,388.89

FORECAST OUTPUTS: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ORDER VALUE [ORGANIC] €200.00 ESTIMATED CONVERSION RATE [ORGANIC] 2.00% TARGET MARKET SHARE [ORGANIC] 5.00% MONTHLY COMMERCIAL + TRANSACTIONAL INTENT TRAFFIC [ORGANIC] 27,682 MONTHLY CONVERSIONS [ORGANIC] 554 MONTHLY REVENUE POTENTIAL [ORGANIC] €110,726 ANNUAL COMMERCIAL + TRANSACTIONAL INTENT TRAFFIC [ORGANIC] 332,178 ANNUAL CONVERSIONS [ORGANIC] 6,644 ANNUAL REVENUE POTENTIAL [ORGANIC] €1,328,712 AVERAGE COST PER LINK €500.00 AVERAGE COST PER PAGE €200.00 ESTIMATED COST OF LINKS €100,333.33 ESTIMATED COST OF CONTENT €76,000.00 ESTIMATED OTHER SEO COSTS €25,000.00 ESTIMATED COST TO COMPETE €201,333.33 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (9 MONTHS) €22,370.37 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (12 MONTHS) €16,777.78 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (18 MONTHS) €11,185.19 MONTHLY INVESTMENT (24 MONTHS) €8,388.89

THE COST TO COMPETE VS POTENTIAL RETURNS: TERRITORY ANNUAL REVENUE POTENTIAL [ORGANIC] ESTIMATED COST TO COMPETE Netherlands €1,328,712 €201,333.33 Germany €1,308,194 €142,500.00 Ireland €490,400 €89,435.33 Spain €1,698,600 €298,353.00 Portugal €1,167,800 €187,385.33

THE COST TO COMPETE VS POTENTIAL RETURNS: TERRITORY ANNUAL REVENUE POTENTIAL [ORGANIC] ESTIMATED COST TO COMPETE Netherlands €1,328,712 €201,333.33 Germany €1,308,194 €142,500.00 Ireland €490,400 €89,435.33 Spain €1,698,600 €298,353.00 Portugal €1,167,800 €187,385.33 Analyse the ‘cost vs opportunity gap’.

In which market can your investment work the hardest and unlock the biggest returns?

CONSIDERATIONS: This isn’t a ‘month by month’ forecast. That’s not the goal here.

CONSIDERATIONS: This isn’t a ‘month by month’ forecast. That’s not the goal here. We’re estimating the cost to compete to help justify investment and prioritise.

CONSIDERATIONS: This isn’t a ‘month by month’ forecast. That’s not the goal here. We’re estimating the cost to compete to help justify investment and prioritise. We can think of this as ‘the cost to catch up.’

CONSIDERATIONS: This isn’t a ‘month by month’ forecast. That’s not the goal here. We’re estimating the cost to compete to help justify investment and prioritise. We can think of this as ‘the cost to catch up.’ This assumes you have the resources and SEO strategy to deliver growth.

WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEX WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEXT? W AT NEXT? NEXT? WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEXT? WHA WHAT NEXT WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEXT? WHAT N XT? WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEXT? WHA NEXT? WHAT NEXT? WHAT NEXT?

FURTHER IDEAS TO CONSIDER FROM NEW MARKET FORECASTS: What would a monthly traffic & revenue forecast look like?

FURTHER IDEAS TO CONSIDER FROM NEW MARKET FORECASTS: What would a monthly traffic & revenue forecast look like? What could happen if we could increase our conversion rate or AOV?

FURTHER IDEAS TO CONSIDER FROM NEW MARKET FORECASTS: What would a monthly traffic & revenue forecast look like? What could happen if we could increase our conversion rate or AOV? How fast could we catch the competition if we frontloaded investment?

FURTHER IDEAS TO CONSIDER FROM NEW MARKET FORECASTS: What would a monthly traffic & revenue forecast look like? What could happen if we could increase our conversion rate or AOV? How fast could we catch the competition if we frontloaded investment? What would we need to do to take more than the target market share?

FORECASTS ARE DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTIONS, NOT GUARANTEES.

FORECASTS ARE DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTIONS, NOT GUARANTEES. “Using market insights to make decisions, justify investment & reduce risk.”

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