Predictability: No Magic Required

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Predictability No magic required Julia Wester Improvement Coach & Team Manager EverydayKanban.com @everydaykanban [email protected]

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Adjective Expected, especially on the basis of previous or known behavior [good or bad!] Predictable [pri-dik-tuh-buh l] @everydaykanban USUALLY GREAT! USUALLY HORRIBLE! USUALLY ________!

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How many telephone lines are needed to avoid blocked calls given § Random arrivals § Random durations Pulling answers from randomness @everydaykanban

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The mathematical study of waiting lines, or queues. Can quantify relationships between queue size, capacity utilization and cycle times Queueing Theory was the solution @everydaykanban capacity utilization (rho) Queue size (N)

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@everydaykanban TODAY’S TALK § Why queues matter § Choices we can make about queues § Monitoring your predictability indicators

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Why Queues Matter @everydaykanban

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@everydaykanban Queues are the waiting work in a system

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Mo’ queue, Mo’ problems @everydaykanban § Longer average cycle times § Wider range of cycle times § More mgmt overhead § Reduced motivation & quality

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@everydaykanban Our workflows are chains of queues

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As interpreted by Don Reinertsen Aesop’s Fable: The Tortoise and the Hare @everydaykanban

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Predictability ≠ fastest UNLESS you can consistently be that fast. To become more predictable… USUALLY DONE IN 2 to 200 DAYS! @everydaykanban USUALLY DONE IN 25 to 35 DAYS! reduce the range of probable outcomes.

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@everydaykanban Choices we can make about queues

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@everydaykanban Choice: Use a push system or pull system? 1 queue per server 1 queue multiple servers Which one do you use?

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@everydaykanban normal stopped Slower, but consistent Wide variation

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@everydaykanban Choice: What factors used to prioritize? Your policy here! FIFO/S PRIORITY

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@everydaykanban FIFO Non-FIFO Wider variation Less variation. Feasible?

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@everydaykanban Choice: Deliver large or small batches? Once a month Once a week

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Once a week Once a month @everydaykanban Wider variation Less variation

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Monitoring your predictability indicators @everydaykanban

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@everydaykanban Cycle time ranges: Lagging indicator Nov October September August July Good clustering Can we reduce the outliers? 95%: 45 days or less

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@everydaykanban Queue size: a leading indicator Which lane is going faster?

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@everydaykanban CFD: Demonstrates the relationship Work units Time Avg. Queue Size Avg. Cycle Time To Do Design Create Verify Deliver 18 10 1.5 2.5

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@everydaykanban Queue Size: predicting predictability issues Bigger queues lead to longer cycle times, less predictability Smaller queues lead to shorter cycle times, more predictability Work-In-Process (hidden queues?) Queued work 9 20 10 2

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@everydaykanban • Remember, you have control over predictability! • Get baseline measures of queue size/cycle times. • Make informed choices about handling queues. • Monitor queues to anticipate and correct issues before they negatively impact cycle times.

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@everydaykanban References and Inspiration

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www.leankit.com To receive a copy of: • The slide deck for today’s presentation • LeanKit’s 1st Annual Lean Business report Send an email to: [email protected] Subject: DOES16