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Surveying the Landscape September 2016

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Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

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The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon

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Apps Android, iOS

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In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished. Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman

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App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

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Apple Universal links

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Doorslams At best, very annoying

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twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

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Advertising And worse, tracking

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secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

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Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/

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21% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

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2013 2014 2015 2016 wordstream.com/blog/ws/2015/10/02/ad-blockers $7.2B $11.7B $21.8B $41.4B

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Monetisation Free, ad-supported isn’t sustainable

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Having a legacy business configured around a website is now almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell

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The New Day Launched with no website.

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The idea won’t be to start a website. That will be dead.
 The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams

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Running our own blog system is a classic case of the cobbler’s shoe syndrome. m.signalvnoise.com/signal-v-noise-moves-to-medium-c8083ce19686 David Heinemeier Hansson

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A lot of designers are still focused on building websites and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites …

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Mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of how information is distributed. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax

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Industry Changes Acquisitions, closures

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nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html Everyone else New $ spent in US online advertising, Q1 2016

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Facebook 1.7bn monthly active users 3.45bn 1.7bn

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portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

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Platforms Medium, Twitter, especially Facebook

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Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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A company that can claim nearly every internet-using adult as a user is less a partner than a context. nytimes.com/2016/08/28/magazine/inside-facebooks-totally-insane-unintentionally-gigantic-hyperpartisan-political-media-machine.html John Herrman

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The new technologies of the 20th century eventually evolved into privately controlled industrial behemoths through which the flow and nature of content would be strictly controlled. The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires Tim Wu

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0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet

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108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM

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1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters

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The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

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15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR

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The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 …

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Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod

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Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited. In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani

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qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Internet users and Facebook users per 100 people 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 Myanmar Indonesia Philippines Thailand Internet Facebook

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The amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod

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Instant Articles Stories rendered in Facebook UI

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Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’ Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms

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Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host content within their own app and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan

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AMP?

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Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

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Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com

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Shopping & Services Facebook venturebeat.com/2016/08/03/facebook-adds-shopping-and-services-sections-to-pages

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In a way, Facebook [has] made the browser wars irrelevant by essentially itself becoming the browser. medium.freecodecamp.com/ghost-in-the-machine-snapchat-isnt-mobile-first-it-s-something-else-entirely-4f6c265152a2 Ben Basche

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The more it succeeds, the more Facebook warps a universe of internet content, industry norms, and consumer habits around itself.
 Facebook in effect becomes the mobile internet. wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/ Davey Alba

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Dominant Social Platforms ஙמ (WeChat), Line, Kakao

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kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report

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Messaging Platforms Messenger, Kik, Slack

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Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

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Daily and weekly use cases dominate the apps that get downloaded and used. But what about the software we use less often… … news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1

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… the brands we may interact with once only every few months, or spontaneously when we don’t have a fast connection? Sarah Guo news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1

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Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

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Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new web pages. Anthony Green

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twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

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Apps in Messaging iMessage, Allo, FB Messenger

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Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

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twitter.com/lukew/status/751438493650264066

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Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home

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Wow… that was heavy.

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twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

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Access method for mobile shoppers % France Italy Spain UK Germany 52.1 59.3 43.1 44.7 41.9 60.1 60.5 66.4 66.6 67.3 Browser App comscore.com/Insights/Data-Mine/Mobile-App-vs-Mobile-Browser

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The best way to reach new consumers is through the open web. Jason Karaian

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WeChat ஙמ

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While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first), in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso

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App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

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twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

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Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

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Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

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wired.com/2016/04/wait-web-isnt-really-dead-google-made-sure

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twitter.com/beep/status/741335390964092928

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Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar

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Physical Web Nearby Notifications

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Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case

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Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

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Choosing the web to enable experiences in the physical world doesn’t just expand the possibility space for IoT, it compels us to re-think the very shape of the web… slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people …

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… from a network of monolithic ‘destinations’ to one of small, non-linear, distributed, and serendipitously discoverable (and ideally shareable) experiences. slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people Stephanie & Bryan Rieger

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Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

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In the context of AR, equating the browser to web is not only inaccurate but limiting. medium.com/web-ar/new-challenges-ar-will-pose-for-the-web-48b754dfcdbc ‘saranyan’

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If we are going to continue to use “the web” as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock

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I don’t define “the web” as websites alone, but rather as any user experience that’s delivered across multiple channels and devices. recode.net/2016/6/3/11841458/heres-how-the-web-gets-conversation-optimized Dries Buytaert

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What if everything was powered by “The Web”, but you never saw a browser? medium.com/dev-channel/the-headless-web-de81ab21651f Paul Kinlan

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Notifications Information unbundled from interface

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Rich local discovery Contextual actions expressed in site

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Embedded content Powered by the web

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A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly

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The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger

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twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

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The web we build today will be the foundation for generations to come. It's crucial we get this right. buytaert.net/can-we-save-the-open-web Dries Buytaert

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I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen