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split TESTING FOR PRODUCT DISCOVERY

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split TESTING FOR PRODUCT DISCOVERY

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ECONOMICS 101

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If i was selling dollar bills for 99 cents each, how many would you buy?

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ALL OF THEM

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BRICk and mortar

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WEB BUSINESS

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scale

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LICENSE TO PRINT MONEY

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AGILE DEVELOPMENT RAPID ITERATION CONTINUOUS DEPLOYMENT

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GOING NOWHERE FAST

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Make use of your 31337 H4CK1N6 5K1LLZ

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AN OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM 0 25 50 75 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 Money In Money Out

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@bryanwoods

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BASIC A/B TESTING

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An almost real example

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Skeptical? you might be surprised.

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0 25 50 75 100 March April May June July August Converted Viewed

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When to implement?

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Not a substitute for finding product/market fit

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Low risk, low cost, possibly high reward

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Deeper integration

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WHAT TO TEST

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what features do your customers want?

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What is the simplest version of the feature you can build to gauge interest?

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what are your customers willing to pay for?

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which features are free and which require an upgrade?

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How much will they pay?

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are your pricing schemes and payment structure flexible enough to be varied?

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are you undercharging?

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when (and how often) should you remarket to them?

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are you over-saturating your users or are you missing possible sales opportunities?

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Product curiosities

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test Every new user-facing feature

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EXAMPLES

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How can we get users to receive more messages?

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How can we encourage users to post more dates?

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should we force them?

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sufficient data obviates best practices

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FIND FEEDBACK LOOPS AND EXPLOIT THEM

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Uploading a photo and posting a date leads to more messages which leads to MORE subscriptions

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Uploading a photo and posting a date leads to more messages which leads to MORE subscriptions

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ZOMG A FUNNEL!

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Your whole business is a conversion funnel

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results

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Huge boosts to conversion rates and revenue

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technical IMPLEMENTATION

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yours free

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included batteries

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user partitioning

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convenience methods

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start/end experiments from admin dashboard

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not (yet) included

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goals

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significance

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visualization

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??? Let us know

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technical debt

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...in A brave new world of doubled complexity

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automated testing is essential

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all code must be held to the same standard of rigor

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test in isolation

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KILL DEAD CODE IMMEDIATELY

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revertability

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don’t get emotionally invested

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MEASURING SUCCESS

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statistical significance

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binomial distribution

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COHORT METRICS

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Site health dashboard

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daily emails

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What if there’s a tie?

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UNEXPECTED BENEFITS

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less time spent arguing over new features

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“Mixcloud claims to have increased their conversion rate to signup by 200 - 300% [using Facebook Connect]”... “Although most sites won’t see the same level of improvement I’ve chatted with several other developers...that have quoted a 20%-50% increase in signups.” http://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2012/03/28/what-are-some-top-strategies-for-conversion-optimization

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https://www.dailycred.com/blog/6/surprise-people-hate-being-forced-to-use-facebook

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is it worth building? testing?

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a defense against conflicting customer feedback

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...And more $$$ doesn’t hurt.

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Recap

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rapid development is useless if you’re not moving in the right direction

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tiny improvements over time can become huge in aggregate

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let data inform your decisions

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there are tools at your disposal

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be rigorous and relentless

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thank you.

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Questions? https://speakerdeck.com/bryanwoods/split-testing-for- product-discovery @bryanwoods