Going Dutch? Visions of the global transport system to 2050 Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds, at RGS-IBG 2015, Exeter Created with open source software Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace

Structure ● Opening remarks ● The global transport system ● Visions of the future ● Methodology ● Hypotheses

I: Opening remarks Map made with the open source R package tmap See https://github.com/Robinlovelace/Creating-maps-in-R

Context: the 'PCT' project

Worldviews of the transport system Transport

A worldview based on system dynamics Transport

Source: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184

II: The global transport system Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/ Licence: Creative Commons

Global transport emissions ● 7.0 GtCO2 in 2010, '23 % of ... CO2 emissions' (Sims et al. 2015) ● Growing faster than other sectors: heading towards '12 Gt CO2 eq / yr by 2050' (Ibid.) ● Seems to have no upper limit, unlike other sectors (food, heating, stuff), linking to Ivan Illich's (1974) Energy and Equity.

Transport emissions over time Source: http://mitigation2014.org/report/figures

Global transport energy flows Source: Sims et al. (2015)

GDP ~ CO2 In transport Source: Sims et al. (2015)

Does cycling energy benefts? → The energy costs of travel work http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

III: Visions of the future Image credit: http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5976

Problems with predictive models https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling

A Global Vision Source: Sims et al. (2015) Acronyms: Latin America and Caribbean (LAM), Middle East and Africa (MAF), and Economies in Transition (EIT)

The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) (+ live demo!)

IV: (Proposed) Methodology

Overall approach ● Critique of IPCC scenarios ● Analysis of demand ● Comparison with literature ● Alternative scenarios ● Focus on demand reduction ● Compare with policies Critical Constructive

Scenarios of the future ● Government target ● Gender equality ● Go Dutch ● Ebikes ● Business as Usual ● Demand reduction ● Go Dutch ● Ecotechnic future Implemented (DfT funded Propensity to cycle tool) Proposed

Data ● IPCC scenarios database ● IEA aggregate data ● Surveys from selected nations ● Country data from International Road Federation (IRF), World Band and other sources ● Inference and assumptions From: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

Model-data comparison

V: Hypotheses and discussion

Hypotheses ● Demand reduction scenario will be more effective than 'Go Dutch' scenario at reducing emissions and energy use ● The IPCC will be found to be pessimistic in its assumptions regarding transport demand ● Reduced energy-intensive travel can be achieved through policies aimed at improving health and quality of life

Hypothesis: interactive, collaborative, open-source approach = effective Credit: Robin Lovelace

Thanks for listening! Credit: Robin Lovelace Email. r.lovelace@leeds Twitter: @robinlovelace GitHub: robinlovelace

Key references ● Goodwin, P. (2013). Get Britain cycling: report from the inquiry. London. Retrieved from http://allpartycycling.fles.wordpress.com/2013/04/get-brita in-cycling_goodwin-report.pdf ● Kay, D., Reynolds, J., Rodrigues, S., Lee, A., Anderson, B., Gibbs, R., … Gill, T. (2011). Fairness in a car dependent society. Sustainable Development Commission: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184 ● Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy, 39(4), 2075–2087. ● Sims, R., Schaeffer, R., Creutzig, F., Cruz-Núñez, X., D’Agosto, M., Dimitriu, D. et al. (2014). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - Chapter 8: Transport. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ ● Melia, S. (2015). Urban Transport Without the Hot Air. Cambridge: UIT.

Data inaccessibility http://www.irfnet.ch/ http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/WDIrevisions.xls

Software: a barrier to envisioning a sustainable future http://www.oasys-software.com/products/engineering/massmotion.html