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Island Climate Update 187 Forecast period: April – June 2016 Teleconference Wednesday 6th of April 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Cme) 6/04/16 1

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1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies last month (March 2016) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 6/04/16 2 Outline

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1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec

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Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 6/04/16 4

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6/04/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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6/04/16 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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SST anomalies March 2016 6/04/16 7 SST anomalies February 2016

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6/04/16 8

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2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa

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SOI and SST NINO INDICES 6/04/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10

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The ENSO Precipita

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Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 6/04/16 12

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Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 6/04/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml March 2016 Last 5 days (April 3) February 2016

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6/04/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 6/04/16 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. AMJ 2016 0% 20% 80% JAS 2016 40% 49% 11% OND 2016 46% 36% 18% Climate Model or Group AMJ 2016 JAS 2016 OND 2016 POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral Unavailable ECMWF (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + El Niño NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño El Niño El Niño Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño La Niña La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño La Niña Unavailable JMA (Japan) El Niño La Niña Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral - La Niña CPC CCA (USA) Neutral + Neutral - La Niña NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Neutral + Neutral La Niña CLIPER (USA) Neutral + Neutral - Neutral - Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña

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3) MJO diagnos

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (AMJ 2016) 6/04/16 20

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6/04/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days Rainfall forecasts for AMJ 2016

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6/04/16 22 METPI rainfall results April – June 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Cook Islands (Northern) 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Kiribati (Western) 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Papua New Guinea 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Society Islands 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY High Solomon Islands 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Samoa 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is

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6/04/16 23 METPI rainfall results

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6) METPI SST forecasts (AMJ 2016) 6/04/16 24

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6/04/16 25 SST anomalies For March 2016 SST forecasts for AMJ 2016