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Intentionally Vague Slide Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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How far do you live from an airport? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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I live !" minutes from one Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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If I'm in a car And the weather is good And it's not rush hour And I don't blow a tire Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Failing any of these makes my trip longer Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimation and Trust Noel Rappin, Table XI Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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I am an idiosyncratic crank about estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Are software developers uniquely bad at estimates? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Ever done a home remodel? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Big Dig Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Initial cost estimate $5.8 billion !!!!!! Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Final cost: $21.93 billion And counting... !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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It's not just our problem Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Why do we need to estimate? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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What about #noestimates? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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I'll stop estimating when my clients stop asking Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Communication Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating Projects: Communicates client investment Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating Projects: Allows us to gauge progress Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating Projects: Enables us to think about the problem Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating Projects Badly: Sets unrealistic expectations Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating Projects Badly: Encourages micromanaging Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating Projects Badly: Stops us from thinking about the problem Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating at the beginning is the worst Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Like guessing time to the airport if you don't even know where the airport is Or if you even need to fly... Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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How can we estimate Effectively? Ethically? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimating projects vs. Estimating features Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Nobody really cares about estimating features Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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They only care about when users can use stuff Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Feature estimates are only useful to get you to project estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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A quick sidebar of agile terms Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Feature Story Iteration Point Velocity Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Kind of a theory of ethical estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimates are estimates Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimates are probabilistic Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Chance of rain: 50% ☔ Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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We can make bad assumptions Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Misunderstanding the problem Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Scope Creep Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Unknown complexity Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Rework Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Political issues Optimism Pressure Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Can we do better? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Focus on what we're good at Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Avoid false precision Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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What goes into the amount of calendar time a feature takes? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Complexity of the task Skill of the developer Time on task Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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We are bad at estimating time on task Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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But it tends to be consistent over time Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Skill of the developer Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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We're also not that great at estimating this Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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And it's toxic Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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But it tends to be consistent over time Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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We are pretty good at estimating complexity Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Which is to say ! ⚪ ! Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Estimate complexity and let time sort itself out Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Which is like basing our airport estimate on: Distance to airport Average speed in the past Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Consistency Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Of team size Of story makeup Of environment Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Decomposing the problem into similar size chunks helps Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Requires Time Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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How do I estimate at the beginning of a project? Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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The worst way to estimate (except for all the other ways) Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Fake it Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Don't fake knowledge or precision Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Realize that your output is a range Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Split the tasks as best you can Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Assign points 1: easy, less than a day 3: has complexity or risk 5: has a lot more complexity or risk Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Don't spend a lot of time assigning points to a single task Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Round up Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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At the beginning (and only at the begining) You can range estimate stories Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Range of points Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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load factor (5 - 7 hours per point) Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Low point total * low factor High point total * high factor Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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points * factor = hours hours * rate = estimate Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Present this with humility Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Understand that this will change Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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You are headed to the airport together Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Thanks Image credits 4 http://www.constructionequipmentguide.com/ historical/big-dig/ Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap

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Noel Rappin Table XI @noelrap http://www.noelrappin.com/trdd http://pragprog.com/book/nrtest2 Noel Rappin, Estimates and Trust, Ancient City Ruby 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com http://www.tablexi.com @noelrap