Systems Thinking for Impactful Changes #Midjourney Xin Yao OOP, July 2023

Contextualizing DDD & architecture in large change efforts Conversation facilitator Boundary spanner, connector Idea spreader, change maker About me 01 02 03 Xin Yao Independent consultant Lives in Copenhagen, Denmark Loves gardening, yoga, sci-​ fi, theater, good food, hanging out with friends and family @settling_mud xin.yao.dk@gmail.com @xinyao@mathstodon.xyz /in/xinxin/

A tale of transformation at a large bank Systems thinking basics System dynamics modeling Systems change What we will cover today

A tale of transformation at a large bank Systems thinking basics System dynamics modeling Systems change

Context: A large Nordic bank 3,5 m+ customers (B2C + B2B) 22,000+ employees 4,000+ in engineering (10 countries) +150 years old 2000+ IT systems

Organizations as sociotechnical systems Social systems (Complex) Engineered systems (Complicated) [software] [organization] The environment

Systems building blocks: feedbacks & delays Reinforcing loop Balancing loop Births Population + delay + Deaths + delay - NOTE: Causal loop diagram is one tool, among many, in system dynamics modeling.

Cause and effect can be far apart in time and space linear cause & effect Non-​ linear feedback loop There’s a fundamental mismatch between the nature of reality in complex systems and our predominant ways of thinking about that reality. The first step is correcting that mismatch is to let go of the notion that cause and effect are close in time and space. ~Peter Senge now in one year

The eventual consistency time span in a social system is much larger than that in an engineered system.

Graphic: Juliet Young Higher leverage at a different time, and place

Policy should protect the future from the past, not the past from the future. ~Tim O'Reilly medium.com Predatory Delay and the Rights of Future Generations We owe the future. How can we be more responsible for the future by the choices we make today

A tale of transformation at a large bank Systems thinking basics System dynamics modeling Systems change

2020: Reorg & change initiative DDD & API evangelism Cloud & DevOps evangelism Agile coaching Decoupled & reusable APIs Software delivery speed Agility, autonomy + + + + Engineering maturity + + + + Enabling tribe Enabling tribe Enabling tribe Journey/Platform tribes Source: Henrik Kniberg & Anders Ivarsson delay delay delay

DDD reinforcing feedback loop Facilitated DDD workshops Eagerness to practice DDD Perceived value of DDD API delivery speed Domain modeling quality Domain understanding + + + + + + delay delay

Facilitated DDD workshops Eagerness to practice DDD Perceived value of DDD API delivery speed Domain modeling quality Domain understanding + + + + + + Availability of DDD enabling capacity Utilization of DDD enabling team Demand on DDD workshop facilitators + + + - DDD enabling capacity limits DDD "growth" Reinforcing loop Balancing loop

Pressure to increase WIP for DDD enabling team Pressure on DDD evangelists to rush domain discovery Premature convergence DDD enabling team attrition Stress & burn-​ out in DDD enabling team Idle API engineers in enabling team API specification velocity per domain Intervention makes matters worse Facilitated DDD workshops Eagerness to practice DDD Perceived value of DDD API delivery speed Domain modeling quality Domain understanding + + + + + + - - - + + + + +

System archetype: Limit to growth/success Source: William Braun - "The System Archetypes" Structure Trend

System dynamics modeling vocabulary System variables Causal links Delays Feedback loops now in one year problem symptom Symptomatic solution Fundamental solution + - + - side effect + - nouns, verbs sentences, scenes Recurring plot lines System archetypes example

Why do we keep seeing the same problems recur over time? What leverage do we have to impact the system's underlying structure? diagnostic use prospective use How do system archetypes help us • Limits to Growth (aka Limits to Success) • Shifting the Burden • Eroding Goals • Escalation • Success to the Successful • Tragedy of the Commons • Fixes that Fail • Growth and Underinvestment • Accidental Adversaries • Attractiveness Principle ... System archetypes

What is systems thinking Interdependencies Living systems Many parts Synthetic holism Analytical reductionism Synthetic holism Analytical reductionism Graphics: Systems Innovation Network Mechanistic thinking Systems thinking

Philosophy of systems thinking Relationality See the whole Living system Causality Meta-​ cognition *multivalent interdepend-​ encies (both-​ and vs. either-​ or) *multi-​ dimensional decision -​ product, business, domain, tech, people To cultivate an appreciation of *step back and look from outside *ask "why & where" before "What, when, how" purpose-​ driven design relation-​ driven design design for self-​ organization impactful design thinking as an emergent property *autopoesis - designer embedded in system *VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) *model and understand system dynamics *influence at high leverage point *thinking itself as a CAS (complex adaptive system) *Practice moves & grooves to think better, together (DSRP**) **DSRP: Distinctions, Systems, Relations, Perspectives (Dr. & Dr. Cabrera, Cornell University)

Many change strategies: Open loop thinking Credit: James E. Paine

What happened? What did we expect? What can we learn from the gap? 1. 2. 3. How much do we study what has succeeded or failed in the past operational models past strategies organizing approaches It's no wonder that a new CEO typically sees his or her job as pushing a new strategy, almost as if there were no history. ~Peter Senge, "the Fifth Discipline" Retro? Illustration: Michael Sahota

Credit: John D. Sterman, James E. Paine Change efforts often fail because we don't understand the full range of feedbacks operating in the system Yesterday’s solution can become today’s problem

These models are hypotheses that need to be put to test, and those tests become part of the feedback loops. Our system models are not perfect, but they are necessary for us to make sense of the complex reality, and act in it. System dynamics modeling helps us build models of closed feedback loops

A tale of transformation at a large bank Systems thinking basics System dynamics modeling Systems change

Hurray! We can use system dynamics modeling to understand and impact systems.

How do fish explain the water they are in?

The transformation story: You are only seeing my view of the world My experiences My data selections My perspectives My assumptions My conclusions My beliefs half empty? half full?

You are not even seeing my view of the world

Where do mental models come from?

Mental models reflect prior experiences ("priors")

What are your priors? What are his?

Predictive mind 1. See scraps of the world 2. Piece it together with the help of filters & priors 3. Pick up prediction errors - update mental models observation prediction correction We see less than what's really there because of filtering We see more than what's really there by adding our "priors" How we build and evolve mental models

We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. ~ Anaïs Nin We create the world we expect to see

gustdebacker.com Cognitive Biases (2023): Complete List of 151 Biases [Psychology] - Gust de Backer Cognitive biases, there are so many of them... Decisions we make based on emotion, cognitive biases are irrational 'errors' that are programmed into people's brains and affect the decision- making process. Plenty of different articles have been written a… Our mental models are full of cognitive biases

A transformation isn't an event. It's a progressive accumulation of habits. -​Andrew Clay Shafer Transformation programs React events Trends Structures Mental models Anticipate Design Transform Credit: Systems Innovation Network

Culture (collective habits) for an organization is like personality for a person. Your energy to try to change it will tend to make it stronger. ~Peter Senge

My worst event storming workshop

Workshop retrospective You are too in love with your model :-). We don't see forest, only trees You=Me model=event storming

No content

We see the world through our mental models Illustration : Jeff Patton

Externalize our thinking visually "Make the implicit explicit" Illustration : Jeff Patton

Combine & refine - integrate perspectives Illustration : Jeff Patton

discussion Reflective conversation Credit: David Bohm, Peter Senge, Chris Argyris advocacy advocacy inquiry Here is how I see it. Here are the facts that support how I see it I know I don't see the whole picture, how do you see it? Here is what I think this data/episode means... Do you see it differently? Oh, that's a perspective I haven't considered Do you see gaps in my reasoning? Here is my view and here is how I arrived at it. dialogue

What is it about this situation, and about me or others, that is making open exchange difficult? The questions that got us unstuck What are you most passionate about contributing to in this domain? What is the future we dream of for this domain?

What happened after event storming Collective reflection Inquiry & advocacy

To DDD or not to DDD Q: Why do you still want to finish the DDD Workshop series? A: You were trying to convince us before. Now we are testing ideas together.

Freedom wasn't possible before I updated my mental model of what enabling is, and is not. For change makers and change facilitators, the changes required are not only in our organizations, but also in ourselves. Let's be mindful of our urge to evangelize what we believe is right. How the truth set me free

To enable is to lead, or unlead? Task-​ oriented Skill-​ oriented Relationally oriented

Connection before content Inspired by: Peter Block As the quality of relationships strengthens, the quality of thinking improves. When we engage in reflective conversations, we connect better with each other. we connect better with ourselves. we connect better with a larger and emergent outcome, not attainable individually.

Systems changes go far beyond systems thinking Thinking together ("meta-​ cognition") Learning together ("meta-​ awareness") Systems change Learning together is more than thinking together

Shared aspiration Systems changes require our full humanity A cognitive approach won't take us all the way there Creative tension Reflective conver-​ sation Growing from struggle A common deep caring a creative yearning Generate energy & focus See reality as an ally Deep commitment Relatedness Willingness to be vulnerable, to be exposed with our biases & limitations Learning together ("meta-​ awareness")

Listening to the wisdom of the system Creativity Politeness Discussion Dialogue Learning together ("meta-​ awareness")

Life is not a problem to be solved, but a reality to be experienced. ~ Søren Kierkegaard

What if I am not a leader How do you change the world? One room at a time. Which room? The one you're in. ~ Peter Block

Profound changes are both deeply personal and deeply systemic. Systems changes require us to look outward, forward and backward, and inward. Peter Senge Russell Ackoff Donella Meadows

What is needed in sociotechnical systems changes technological sophistication human sophistication modeling analysis simulation visualization synthesis categorization leadership advocacy self-​ organization listening inquiry meta-​ cognition (DSRP) emotional intelligence systems thinking system dynamics modeling technological advancements architecture adaptive learning creativity productivity mental models meta-​ awareness (interoception)

A tale of transformation in a large bank Systems basics Systems dynamics modeling Systems change What we've covered today

Thank you @settling_mud xin.yao.dk@gmail.com @xinyao@mathstodon.xyz /in/xinxin/