The benefits of cycling Economic, social, environmental Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Created with open source software Slides: speakerdeck.com/robinlovelace Image credit: http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5976

Tools of the trade: pricey http://www.oasys-software.com/products/engineering/massmotion.html

The costs of transport planning

Part I: The benefits of collaboration Credit: flickr CC license

The costs of incompatibility

Doing it right: CycleStreets.net http://www.cyclestreets.net/journey/44700192/

The solution: open source software

A caveat about open source ● We want less stuff like this… ● ● ● And more like this!

Part II: Which benefits? Credit: Robin Lovelace

Back to the benefits of cycling... ● Economic ● Social ● Environment ● Which to focus on? ● Others? ● It depends

But how do these operate? Cycling

The complex view of impact Cycling

A focus on energy ● Links economy, society and environment ● Is (relatively) easily quantifiable ● Is linked to major global problems ● Relates to everyday life

The UK context: time

UK Transport energy use over geographical space Source: http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

System boundaries in assessment Source: http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

Energy costs by mode Source: http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

Source: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184

A case study: sheffield Source: Lovelace et al. (2011): http://linkinghub.elsevi er.com/retrieve/pii/S0 301421511000620

Energy savings in Sheffield “The fuel saving under scenario I amounts to 44.2 TJ or 0.3% of the estimated energy content of fuel burnt in Sheffield cars in 2009.” Source: Lovelace et al. (2011)

Does cycling energy benefits? → http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

The motorway network in Holland “In the Netherlands there are 2631 km of motorways whereas in the England there are 3673 (Eurostat, 2013, via the UK Data Service). These values equate to roughly 150 km of motorway per million people in the Netherlands, compared with only 70 km per million in England, less than half.” (Lovelace, 2014: my thesis) http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ “The Germans drive more too.” (Melia, 2015)

Exploring the wider benefits: ● “Cycling has saved me” ● “You feel fresh and alert at work” ● “I've saved a packet since selling the car” ● “My bicycle has given me independence”

Part III: The national context Credit: Robin Lovelace

Where are we starting from? http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/

What is Get Britain Cycling? ● GBC = optimistic vision of a cycling nation ● Scenario with quantitative targets ● Overview of policies needed to get there ● Produced for MPs by the APPCG, April 2013

● “the long-term ambition should be to increase cycle use to 10% of all journeys in 2025, and 25% by 2050” ● Case studies of growth (e.g. Devon) ● Funding: needs > £10 person/yr The GBC report “For technical reasons, computer modelling and forecasting has played little role in assessing the future potential of the volume of cycling” (Goodwin 2013)

Limitations of GBC ● Lacks timeline beyond targets for 2025 and 2050 ● No geographical disaggregation of cycling uptake ● Nothing on who would be cycling where, replacing which modes and for what trip types ● Basically, great overview, scant on detail ● So the first stage was to create scenarios

Modelling cycling uptake nationwide https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling

The Parliamentary Question (PQ)

The “Official” model in context ● Based on economic growth, car-focussed ● Cyclist Touring Club lobbied DfT to rectify this ● Nationa Transport Model (NTM) cycling projections now being updated – evidence-based policy! Forec ast year Cycle trips - billion Cycle miles- billion Dista nce per trip 2010 1.2 2.9 2.4 2015 1.4 3.4 2.4 2020 1.3 3.2 2.5 2025 1.3 3 2.3 2030 1.3 3.1 2.4 2035 1.4 3.1 2.2 2040 1.4 3.1 2.2

Linear and “doubling in 10 yr” models ● Realisti c? ● Almost there for 2050 target ● Way off 2025 target

Things can be linear for a while... ● Doubling in 8 yr ● “Levelling off” ● Proxy for number of cycle trips in London ● From “sixty automatic cycle counters” ● Adjusted to account for season

Increasing distance of bicycle trips ● Increased potential to replace car trips? ● Or just “Wiggo effect”? – Leisure/utility trips? ● Clashes with DfT model Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-travel-survey-2012

Comparison of data and models

Distance-decay varies with mode and reason for trip... Source: My Thesis, based on Iacono et al. (2011)

The Geo-dimension Flows into Sheffield's 4 largest Employing Output Area zones

Distance decay functions – look at the overlaps

Resulting report: national benefits

Benefits of cycling nationwide See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling

Webtag estimates of benefit:cost See https://tinyurl.com/conversation-cycling https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/webtag-tag-overview

Part IV: The local context

The Local Authority context

English metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties by type 2009, by Nilfanion and Dr Greg. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons -

The 'metropolitan' combined authorities Source: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06649/SN06649.pdf

Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs) http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/roads-nowhere/local-transport

http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/roads-nowhere/local-transport#lepmap

Part V: The National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT) (+ live demo!) Credit: Robin Lovelace

An open source policy planning tool

Part VI: How to increase the benefits?

Growing the benefits of cycling ● Increase the 'replacement ratio' ● Incentivise women, young people and old people cycling ● More car-free areas ● Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure? (a game of 2 halves)

Thanks for listening! Credit: Robin Lovelace Email. r.lovelace@leeds Twitter: @robinlovelace GitHub: robinlovelace

Key references ● Goodwin, P. (2013). Get Britain cycling: report from the inquiry. London. Retrieved from http://allpartycycling.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/get-brit ain-cycling_goodwin-report.pdf ● Kay, D., Reynolds, J., Rodrigues, S., Lee, A., Anderson, B., Gibbs, R., … Gill, T. (2011). Fairness in a car dependent society. Sustainable Development Commission: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=1184 ● Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy, 39(4), 2075–2087. ● Lovelace, R. (2014). The energy costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach. University of Sheffield. Retrieved from http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/ ● Melia, S. (2015). Urban Transport Without the Hot Air. Cambridge: UIT.