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Exploratory Seminar #27 Data Science X

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2 EXPLORATORY

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Kan Nishida CEO/co-founder Exploratory Summary Beginning of 2016, launched Exploratory, Inc. to democratize Data Science. Prior to Exploratory, Kan was a director of product development at Oracle leading teams for building various Data Science products in areas including Machine Learning, BI, Data Visualization, Mobile Analytics, Big Data, etc. While at Oracle, Kan also provided training and consulting services to help organizations transform with data. @KanAugust Speaker

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Data Science is not just for Engineers and Statisticians. Exploratory makes it possible for Everyone to do Data Science. The Third Wave

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First Wave Second Wave Third Wave Proprietary Open Source UI & Programming Programming 2016 2000 1976 Monetization Commoditization Democratization Statisticians Data Scientists Democratization of Data Science Algorithms Experience Tools Open Source UI & Automation Business Users Theme Users

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Questions Communication Data Access Data Wrangling Visualization Analytics (Statistics / Machine Learning) Data Analysis Data Science Workflow

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Questions Communication (Dashboard, Note, Slides) Data Access Data Wrangling Visualization Analytics (Statistics / Machine Learning) Data Analysis ExploratoryɹModern & Simple UI

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Exploratory Seminar #27 Data Science X

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Google Analytics Data is Treasure Trove • The pre-built dashboards on the Google Analytics page are optimized for general purpose, they are not designed to answer your questions you need to answer for your business. • By downloading the data, visualizing it from various perspectives, wrangling it flexibly, and applying various analytics methods quickly, you can gain deeper insights to answer your own questions.

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Communication Data Access Data Wrangling Visualization Analytics (Statistics / Machine Learning) Data Analysis with EXPLORATORY

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Data Access

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1. Select View 2. Select Period 3. Select Dimensions & Measures 4. Select Segment (Optional) 5. Import Import Google Analytics Data

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Import Data

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Select Account, Property, and View.

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Select Period.

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Select Segment

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Segment

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Create Segments in Google Analytics

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• Users who have visited a product page. • Users who have converted. • Sessions that came from Google Search (Organic) • Sessions that came from mobile devices Example Segments

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Dimensions & Metrics

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Select Dimensions & Metrics

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Dimension Metric

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Dimensions: They are the attributes of what you are interested in measuring for. Landing Page, Country, Device Type, Source, etc. Metrics: Quantitative measurements of what you are interested. Number of Sessions, Page Views, Bounce Rates, Conversion Rates, etc.

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Scope

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Scope • Scope is how Google Analytics collects data. Google Analytics collects data at various different levels and summarize the data by the levels. • Each dimension and measure belongs to a particular level of scope. • This means that when you mix the dimensions and measures that belong to different levels you will get inaccurate data.

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Top Page Page A Page D Page A Page D Add to Cart Purchase Confirm Page Top Page Page A Page B

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User : It uses each web browser as a proxy of each user. This level of data is measured across the sessions. Session : Collected per Visit. The activities during the time a given user comes to the site and exits. Hit : Collected per Action. The data about each action such as Click.

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Session can end without a clear exit • If you kept opening the same page with no activity for 30 minutes then the session is considered as Exit. • When the day changes, passing midnight. • Even within the same 30 minutes duration with the same web browser, if you revisit the same site from different source (e.g. Google Search vs. Facebook) a new session starts.

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Select Dimensions & Measures

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Show only the selected Dimensions & Measures

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Click the Run button to preview the data.

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Click the Save button to import the data.

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It will show the summary information once the data is imported.

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Communication Data Access Data Wrangling Visualization Analytics (Statistics / Machine Learning) Data Analysis with EXPLORATORY

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The Common Challenges for Visualizing GA Data • Want to aggregate data by specific date and time levels. • Want to group the data into multiple groups and compare them. • Too many unique values for dimensions. • Want to visualize the variation and the uncertainty of data rather than the summary values.

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The Common Challenges for Visualizing GA Data • Want to aggregate data by specific date and time levels. • Want to group the data into multiple groups and compare them. • Too many unique values for dimensions. • Want to visualize the variation and the uncertainty of data rather than the summary values.

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Round by Day

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Round by Week

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Round by Month

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What is this drop!?!?

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This month has only 10 days and is not complete.

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Remove ‘This Month’ Data

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Extract Month

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Extract Day of Week

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Different Level for X-Axis, Color, and Repeat By

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The Common Challenges for Visualizing GA Data • Want to aggregate data by specific date and time levels. • Want to group the data into multiple groups and compare them. • Too many unique values for dimensions. • Want to visualize the variation and the uncertainty of data rather than the summary values.

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Break Down with Repeat By

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The Common Challenges for Visualizing GA Data • Want to aggregate data by specific date and time levels. • Want to group the data into multiple groups and compare them. • Too many unique values for dimensions. • Want to visualize the variation and the uncertainty of data rather than the summary values.

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Too many unique values for dimensions.

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• Limit Values - Top 10 • Limit Values - Condition • Create ‘Other’ Group • Highlight A few options to address

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• Limit Values - Top 10 • Limit Values - Condition • Create ‘Other’ Group • Highlight A few options to address

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Limit to Top 30 Countries

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• Limit Values - Top 10 • Limit Values - Condition • Create ‘Other’ Group • Highlight A few options to address

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Limit values with more than 1,000 sessions.

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• Limit Values - Top 10 • Limit Values - Condition • Create ‘Other’ Group • Highlight A few options to address

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Too Many Values (Lines)

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Limit to only the United States and Japan

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• Limit Values - Top 10 • Limit Values - Condition • Create ‘Other’ Group • Highlight A few options to address

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Sometimes, too many lines is not a bad thing if you can highlight.

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Highlight

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The Common Challenges for Visualizing GA Data • Want to aggregate data by specific date and time levels. • Want to group the data into multiple groups and compare them. • Too many unique values for dimensions. • Want to visualize the variation and the uncertainty of data rather than the summary values.

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Communication Data Access Data Wrangling Visualization Analytics (Statistics / Machine Learning) Data Analysis with EXPLORATORY

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• Text Data Wrangling • Joining • Merging

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Text data almost always needs Clean Up!

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• Extract Text • Remove Text • Replace Text • Convert Text - lower case / UPPER CASE / Title Case

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Text Wrangling - Extract

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Text Wrangling - Remove

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Example Visualize Search Parameter Text

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Landing Page Path

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If you visualize the path as is…

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Extract Parameter Value

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Extract Parameter Value

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Extract Parameter Value

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Clean up the Text! - Handle multiple tags - Convert to Title Case - Remove Text - Remove double quotes Remove Leasing/Training Spaces

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Visualize it with Word Cloud

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• Text Data Wrangling • Joining • Merging

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Engagement

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Goal • Improve the Conversion Rate • Reduce the Churn Rate

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Lagging Indicator • Metrics to Confirm • It’s too late when you find out Leading Indicator • Metrics to Predict • You can take actions when you find out

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Lagging Indicator • Conversion Rate • Churn Rate Leading Indicator • Engagement

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Goal: Want to improve the engagement Challenge: How can we measure the engagement?

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DAU

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MAU

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• Active User Metrics (DAU, MAU, etc.) are not good indicators of the engagement. • As business grows, they tend to grow regardless of whether users are more engaged or not. • Sales and Marketing can improve the activity, but not necessary the engagement. Activity ≠ Engagement

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A Engagement Metric • Measure how often the same users visit the site or use the service. • It was popularized by Facebook who was using it to grow the user base at the early stage. DAU / MAU

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DAU / MAU /

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How can we do with Google Analytics data?

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We can use ‘1 Day Active Users (User)’ and ’30 Day Active Users (User)’.

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115 1 Day Active Users / 30 Day Active Users And calculate inside Exploratory!

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However…, there is one problem.

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Due to the scope limitation, we can’t get these metrics data in the same query. (They are aggregated at different levels (1 day vs. 30 days).

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Get DAU Get MAU So, we can get those metrics data separately…

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Get DAU Get MAU Then, join them together later. Join

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Join Get DAU Get MAU Join

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Get DAU Get MAU Join Calculate DAU / MAU

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Create Calculation Get DAU Get MAU Calculate DAU / MAU Join

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DAU / MAU

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Visualize the Engagement Trend

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Add a ‘Smooth Curve’ trendline with LOESS method.

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• Text Data Wrangling • Joining • Merging

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Import Data by specifying the Segment

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Name Page View Bootcamp 15 Bootcamp 100 Bootcamp 20 Name Page View Not Bootcamp 20 Not Bootcamp 95 Not Bootcamp 30 Name Sales Bootcamp 15 Bootcamp 100 Bootcamp 20 Not Bootcamp 20 Not Bootcamp 95 Not Bootcamp 30 Merge

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Merge two data frames.

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Data Reproducibility

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Data gets updated daily (or hourly). Can we automate the data wrangling steps? 132

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Click Re-Import Button to download the latest data from GA 133

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Communication Data Access Data Wrangling Visualization Analytics (Statistics / Machine Learning) Data Analysis with EXPLORATORY

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• Statistical Modeling • Prediction with Machine Learning Models • Time Series Forecasting • Causal Impact Analysis • Clustering Analytics

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• Statistical Modeling • Prediction with Machine Learning Models • Time Series Forecasting • Causal Impact Analysis • Clustering Analytics

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Time Series Forecasting with Prophet

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• Want to find out how we can prepare our web service infrastructure in order to keep the current performance level. • Number of servers, whether moving to higher spec machines, should we create regional (Japan, France, etc.) servers, etc. • Preparing more servers and higher spec machines will increase the cost. • We want to minimize the cost of adding more servers, but at the same time it will damage our business if we are not ready for higher demands. Challenge

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• Want to forecast the page accesses in the next few months. • Based on the forecast, we can plan to add more servers or reduce the number of servers. • If we can forecast by region, then we can allocate adequate number of machines in the area where we expect higher demands. Challenge

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Visualizing Page View Trend

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Where will our page views be over the next few months?

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Time Series Forecasting with Prophet

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• A ‘curve fitting’ algorithm to build time series forcasting models. • Designed for ease of use without expert knowledge on time series forecasting or statistics. • Built by Data Scientists (Sean J. Taylor & co.) at Facebook and open sourced. (https:// facebook.github.io/prophet) Prophet Sean J. Taylor @seanjtaylor

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Build a model by finding a best smooth line which can be represented as sum of the following components. • Overall growth trend • Seasonality - Yearly, Weekly, Daily, etc. • Holiday effects - X’mas, New Year, July 4th, etc. • External Predictors Prophet - Additive Model

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Weekly Sales Trend

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Build a Forecasting Model with Prophet

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Assign Order Date to Date/Time and Sales to Value.

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The blue line is the actual data (Sales), and the orange line is the forecasted data.

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The last area is the forecasted period where there is no actual data.

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The default is 10 units, in this case, that is 10 weeks.

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Set the Forecasting Period to 52 weeks.

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Under the Trend tab, you can see the overall trend that is used by the model. The blue line is the actual (Sales) data, and the green line is the trend.

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The vertical light green bars are Change Points where the trend changes.

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Under the Yearly tab you can see the Yearly Seasonality.

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Every year, the sales doesn’t pick up until June, then it goes down in July.

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Google Analytics with Prophet • Get the Daily Page View data from Google Analytics. • Run a time series forecasting model with Prophet under Analytics view.

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Forecasting for the next 6 months

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Forecasting for the next 12 months

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Yearly Seasonality

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Trend

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with Repeat By

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with Repeat By

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Q & A

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Information Email [email protected] Website https://exploratory.io Twitter @KanAugust Training https://exploratory.io/training

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EXPLORATORY