The Consolations of Complexity

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The Consolations of Complexity SDinGov — 29th September 2022

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Tom Morgan Lead Designer

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previously… on Tom’s career

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz ● a lot of time working on web things ● a lot of time advocating for UCD ● a lot of time failing to do it before 2015

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I started working in Government 2015

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz ● sense of purpose ● lots of open goals for design ● ﬁt my skills & experience ● the argument had been won

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Then things started to get hard

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complicated /ˈkɒmplɪkeɪtɪd/ adjective 1. consisting of many interconnecting parts or elements; intricate. "a complicated stereo system" complex /ˈkɒmplɛks/ adjective 1. consisting of many different and connected parts. "a complex network of water channels"

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Rainforest / Ferrari

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It’s like the difference between, say, a Ferrari and the Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated machines, but an expert mechanic can take one apart and reassemble it without changing a thing. The car is static, and the whole is the sum of its parts. The rainforest, on the other hand, is in constant flux—a species becomes extinct, weather patterns change, an agricultural project reroutes a water source—and the whole is far more than the sum of its parts. This is the realm of ‘unknown unknowns,’ and it is the domain to which much of contemporary business has shifted.” — Dave Snowden “

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The Cyneﬁn Framework

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kuh-NEV-in (WELSH WORDS FTW BTW) “habitat” “place of your multiple belongings”

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The Cyneﬁn Framework

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How does this relate to my work?

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problems anyone could probably solve, admin & logistics problems I can solve using my knowledge of design, my skills and expertise as a designer. problems I solve with user-centred design, eg. user research, prototypes, hypotheses, iteration & co-design etc JFDI

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The organisation around me was acting as if the problem was complicated

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what is complexity?

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz chaos theory

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz strange patterns and unpredictable behaviour

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complex adaptive systems

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nonlinear dynamics

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cause effect

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cause effect

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cause effect

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cause effect

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cause effect effect effect effect

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz everything is in constant ﬂux

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz everything affects everything else

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ecosystems

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz susceptible to feedback loops

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stock markets

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz things are unpredictable

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emergence

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz there is no central control, no leader

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz whole is more than the sum of the parts

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“The entire mound—insects plus structure—is thus a living thing: a self-regulating physiological and cognitive system, with a sense of its own boundaries, a memory, and a kind of collective intentionality.”

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emergent properties complex adaptive systems entangled constantly changing unpredictable nonlinear feedback loops self- organising uncontrollable

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz is the design of government services a complex problem?

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz is the organisation I’m working in a complex system?

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government is a complex system

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz ● my place within it ● the work I was doing ● the effect it would have

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working in a complex environment

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we expect problems to be like dragons that once slain will leave us to live happily ever after

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz problems are perennial, ever changing and need constant attention

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gardening the problem

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we expect success to be something that will happen at some point in the future

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz we cannot control the future so we must think differently about success

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success as balance

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We expect to clearly see the results of the things we do

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz we might never know the effects we’ve caused, but we will always have an effect

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a butterﬂy ﬂaps its wings

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We expect the thing that worked last time to work again this time

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz the same cause could have a different effect, but also new opportunities to affect things will always arise

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the same river twice

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“All models are wrong, but some are useful.” — George Box

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz All user needs are wrong but some are useful

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz All personas are wrong but some are useful

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz All prototypes are wrong but some are useful

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz All maps are wrong but some are useful

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useful needs balance

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useful keeps changing

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useful needs constant attention

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useful in ways you didn’t expect

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz All metaphors are wrong but some are useful

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the consolations of complexity @tsmz They are undoubtedly wrong but they have been useful in enabling me to maintain a little bit of that initial optimism and resilience in the face of the complexity of Government.