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Holly Cummins IBM The free-lunch guide to idea circularity March 18, 2026 QCon London

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The Palace of Westminster prior to the embankment of the Thames, Westminster, 1860s

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The Palace of Westminster prior to the embankment of the Thames, Westminster, 1860s

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the great stink

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Michael Faraday “Near the bridges the feculence rolled up in clouds so dense that they were visible at the surface”

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Benjamin Disraeli “reeking with ineffable and intolerable horrors”

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Crossness pumping station, by k7hpn on fl ickr

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“cistern chapel” Crossness pumping station, by k7hpn on fl ickr

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history rhymes

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throughput

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poo throughput

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pooput

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sewage trade-offs

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sewage trade-offs

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sewage trade-offs

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centralised stink and disease distributed stink and disease

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Robert Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress “TANSTAAFL”

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grid

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cloud

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nothing is new under the sun

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“maybe let’s not wreck our home”

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being sustainable optimise for short-term

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Sources: https://www.greenit.fr/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/GREENIT_EENM_etude_EN_accessible.pdf https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector the digital world creates more carbon emissions than aviation

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Lighter area represents high and low estimates, where available. Sources: https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/data-centres-networks https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-demand?tab=table&country=USA~GBR~FRA~DEU~IND~BRA data centres use as much electricity as a medium country

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Itaipu dam, Brazil, photo by Deni Williams, reative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

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days are now 0.06 µsec longer three gorges dam

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earth’s axis tilted 2 cm three gorges dam

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- LightSwitchOps - efficient software

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LightSwitchOps architect things to be turned o ff and on often

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quarkus makes java apps more efficient

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capacity Source: John O’Hara Setup: • REST + CRUD • large heap • RAPL energy measurement Assumptions: carbon as a function of load (single instance)

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capacity Source: John O’Hara Setup: • REST + CRUD • large heap • RAPL energy measurement Assumptions: carbon as a function of load (single instance) longer line means higher max throughput

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capacity Source: John O’Hara Setup: • REST + CRUD • large heap • RAPL energy measurement Assumptions: carbon as a function of load (single instance) longer line means higher max throughput lower line means better carbon footprint

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Setup: • REST + CRUD • large heap • RAPL energy measurement • multiple instances to support high load Assumptions: • US energy mix Source: John O’Hara carbon as a function of load

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“let’s decide everything at runtime” why a duck? duck typing!

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dynamic pre-decided

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lazy eager

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“distribute all the things, all the time”

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microservices hyper-distributed

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amazon prime video reduced costs by 90% by moving to a monolith 2023

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latency complexity infra cost computing power resilience independent lifecycles

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git github

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data centre ai

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data centre ai vs distributed ai

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hype cycles

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grid internet of things digital twin model-driven-development low code cloud native kubernetes microservices

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the morning after the technology before

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the lunch was not free

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– Meredith Whittaker

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– Meredith Whittaker

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– Meredith Whittaker “It’s not simply that one piece of technology is overhyped, it’s that hype is a necessary ingredient of the current business ecosystem of the tech industry.”

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grid internet of things digital twin model-driven-development low code cloud native kubernetes microservices

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grid internet of things digital twin model-driven-development low code cloud native kubernetes microservices ai

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venture capital

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baby company

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baby company

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baby company

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funding rounds baby company

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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“exit” funding rounds baby company attracted investment

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“exit” funding rounds baby company IPO attracted investment

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“exit” funding rounds baby company IPO acquisition attracted investment

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“exit” funding rounds baby company IPO acquisition attracted investment

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what attracts investment?

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what attracts investment? stability?

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what attracts investment? stability? profitability?

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what attracts investment? stability? profitability? revenue?

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what attracts investment? growth stability? profitability? revenue?

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what attracts investment? growth stability? profitability? excitement revenue?

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what attracts investment? growth stability? profitability? excitement revenue? hiring

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what attracts investment? growth stability? profitability? excitement revenue? likelihood of selling stake at a profit hiring

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“a world without developers”

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low code

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IDENTIFICATION DIVISION. PROGRAM-ID. COBCALC. ENVIRONMENT DIVISION. DATA DIVISION. WORKING-STORAGE SECTION. 01 PARM-1. 05 CALL-FEEDBACK PIC XX. 01 FIELDS. 05 INPUT-1 PIC X(10). 01 INPUT-BUFFER-FIELDS. 05 BUFFER-PTR PIC 9. 05 BUFFER-DATA. 10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "LOAN". 10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "PVALUE". 10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "pvalue". 10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "END". 05 BUFFER-ARRAY REDEFINES BUFFER-DATA OCCURS 4 TIMES PIC X(10). PROCEDURE DIVISION. DISPLAY "CALC Begins." UPON CONSOLE. MOVE 1 TO BUFFER-PTR. MOVE SPACES TO INPUT-1. * Keep processing data until END requested PERFORM ACCEPT-INPUT UNTIL INPUT-1 EQUAL TO "END". * END requested DISPLAY "CALC Ends." UPON CONSOLE. GOBACK. * End of program. * * Accept input data from buffer * ACCEPT-INPUT. MOVE BUFFER-ARRAY (BUFFER-PTR) TO INPUT-1. ADD 1 BUFFER-PTR GIVING BUFFER-PTR. * Allow input data to be in UPPER or lower case EVALUATE FUNCTION UPPER-CASE(INPUT-1) CALC1 WHEN "END" MOVE "END" TO INPUT-1 WHEN "LOAN" PERFORM CALCULATE-LOAN WHEN "PVALUE"

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jevon’s paradox

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jevon’s paradox “efficiency improvements can lead to increased consumption”

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what we imagine when we widen roads

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what we get

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software is not going away

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1800s

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“knocker-up” 1800s

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“knocker-up” 1800s human alarm clock

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“knocker-up” 1800s - 1940s human alarm clock

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“knocker-up” 1800s finite demand - 1940s human alarm clock

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“knocker-up” 1800s finite demand only employees need waking up - 1940s human alarm clock

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“knocker-up” 1800s finite demand only employees need waking up no one needs waking up more than once - 1940s human alarm clock

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the more software we have, the more we want

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software to do stuff

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software software to manage the software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software software to manage the software software to write the software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software software to manage the software software to write the software software to manage the software that writes the software

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software software to manage the software software to write the software software to manage the software that writes the software software to try and avoid skynet

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software software to manage the software software to write the software software to manage the software that writes the software software to try and avoid skynet software to work out the meaning of life

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software to do stuff software to do more stuff software to tell people about software software to bypass advertisements in the software software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show software to gamify software software to monitor the software software to debug the vibe-coded software software to manage the software software to write the software software to manage the software that writes the software software to try and avoid skynet software to work out the meaning of life …

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ok but

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usa developer vacancies Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709

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Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709 uk developer vacancies

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“our AI strategy is working”

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AI-washing

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overhiring

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people-stockpiling overhiring

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what attracts investment? growth stability? profitability? excitement revenue? likelihood of selling stake at a profit hiring

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economic cycles

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free money

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debt financial

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debt

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ZIRP

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“zero interest-rate phenomenon” ZIRP

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0%

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<1%

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Source: Bank of England uk interest rates

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Source: Bank of England averting subprime collapse uk interest rates

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Source: Bank of England averting subprime collapse covid uk interest rates

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Source: Bank of England averting subprime collapse covid 0.1% (!) uk interest rates

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Source: Bank of England averting subprime collapse covid 0.1% (!) in fl ation shortages war uk interest rates

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Source: Bank of England uk interest rates

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Source: Bank of England uk interest rates the period most of us remember

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exit attracted investment baby company

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exit attracted investment baby company

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exit attracted investment baby company

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exit attracted investment baby company risk

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ZIRP

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software company ZIRP

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government bond software company ZIRP

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government bond risk return software company ZIRP

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government bond risk return software company high ZIRP

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government bond risk return software company high 20% - 500% ZIRP

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government bond low risk return software company high 20% - 500% ZIRP

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government bond low 0% risk return software company high 20% - 500% ZIRP

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government bond low 0% risk return software company high 20% - 500% ZIRP

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government bond low 4% risk return software company high 20% - 500% post-ZIRP

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government bond low 4% risk return software company high 20% - 500% post-ZIRP

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less investment means less hiring

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less investment means less hiring

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Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709 usa developer vacancies

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Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709 usa developer vacancies chatgpt released

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software is not going away

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Source: indeed.com via https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/ developer vacancies

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Source: indeed.com via https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/ developer vacancies

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sleep debt

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“a world without work”

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“a world without rest”

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hustle

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grind

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the 996

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average working week 66 hours 1826

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productivity stayed the same

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the four day working week 2026

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42% decrease in resignations the four day working week 2026

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42% decrease in resignations the four day working week 2026

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the value of doing nothing

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the default mode network idle minds can solve hard problems

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desks are not the only place value is created

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desks are not the only place value is created

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14% took showers speci fi cally for the purpose of coming up with ideas

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are we taking more showers?

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professions using ai worked 3.15 hours more per week https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/ais-power-grows-so-does-our-workday

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what we get jevon’s paradox in action

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euphoria fear

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productivity panic

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productivity panic

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“disposable busyware”

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workslop is pollution

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code isn’t an asset, it’s a liability

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even good code is a liability

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vibe now pay later

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technical debt

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“engineering discipline”

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but why can’t you put the [non-engineer]’s vibe- coded feature into production? it looks so pretty …

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the return of the spec

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the return of TDD

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epistemic debt

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the collapse of competence epistemic debt

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getting stuff done understanding all the low-level details

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getting stuff done understanding all the low-level details

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Edsger Dijkstra, 1975 “The use of COBOL cripples the mind.”

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debt tradeoffs circular ideas

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ecological debt

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ecological debt financial debt

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ecological debt financial debt technical debt

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ecological debt financial debt technical debt epistemic debt

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ecological debt financial debt technical debt epistemic debt sleep debt

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debt is a tradeoff with the future

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ideas come back round …

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ideas come back round … when the tradeoff shifts

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how do you get better at seeing repeating patterns?

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be old?

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Philip Greenspun “any sufficiently complicated C or Fortran program contains an ad hoc, informally- specified, bug-ridden, slow implementation of half of Common Lisp” Greenspun’s 10th rule

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how old was Philip Greenspun?

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how old was Philip Greenspun? 29

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- what problem are we trying to solve?

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- what problem are we trying to solve? - what’s the tradeoff?

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be curious

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be curious about the past

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why are things the way they are now? are there assumptions that have changed?

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opportunity

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analog sql quarkus github opportunity

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look for opportunities

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tl;dpa (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. - sometimes there isn’t a trade-o ff . (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. - sometimes there isn’t a trade-o ff . - think about sustainability of your IT (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. - sometimes there isn’t a trade-o ff . - think about sustainability of your IT - for environment (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. - sometimes there isn’t a trade-o ff . - think about sustainability of your IT - for environment - for people (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. - sometimes there isn’t a trade-o ff . - think about sustainability of your IT - for environment - for people - fi nancially (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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tl;dpa - nothing is new under the sun. - there’s almost always a trade-o ff . fi nd it. - sometimes there isn’t a trade-o ff . - think about sustainability of your IT - for environment - for people - fi nancially - recycle ideas everyone else has forgotten. (too long; didn’t pay attention)

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https://hollycummins.com/idea-circularity-qcon/