Holly Cummins
IBM
The free-lunch guide
to idea circularity
March 18, 2026
QCon London
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The Palace of Westminster
prior to the embankment of
the Thames, Westminster,
1860s
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The Palace of Westminster
prior to the embankment of
the Thames, Westminster,
1860s
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the great stink
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Michael Faraday
“Near the bridges the feculence
rolled up in clouds so dense that
they were visible at the surface”
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Benjamin Disraeli
“reeking with ineffable
and intolerable horrors”
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Crossness pumping station, by k7hpn on
fl
ickr
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“cistern chapel”
Crossness pumping station, by k7hpn on
fl
ickr
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history rhymes
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throughput
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poo throughput
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pooput
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sewage
trade-offs
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sewage
trade-offs
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sewage
trade-offs
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centralised
stink and
disease
distributed stink
and disease
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Robert Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress
“TANSTAAFL”
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grid
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cloud
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nothing is new
under the sun
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“maybe let’s not wreck our home”
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being
sustainable
optimise for
short-term
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Sources:
https://www.greenit.fr/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/GREENIT_EENM_etude_EN_accessible.pdf
https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector
the digital world creates more carbon emissions than aviation
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Lighter area represents high and low estimates, where available.
Sources:
https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/data-centres-networks
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-demand?tab=table&country=USA~GBR~FRA~DEU~IND~BRA
data centres use as much electricity as a medium country
LightSwitchOps
architect things to be turned o
ff
and on often
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quarkus makes java
apps more efficient
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capacity
Source: John O’Hara
Setup:
• REST + CRUD
• large heap
• RAPL energy measurement
Assumptions:
carbon as a function of load (single instance)
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capacity
Source: John O’Hara
Setup:
• REST + CRUD
• large heap
• RAPL energy measurement
Assumptions:
carbon as a function of load (single instance)
longer line means
higher max
throughput
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capacity
Source: John O’Hara
Setup:
• REST + CRUD
• large heap
• RAPL energy measurement
Assumptions:
carbon as a function of load (single instance)
longer line means
higher max
throughput
lower line means
better carbon footprint
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Setup:
• REST + CRUD
• large heap
• RAPL energy measurement
• multiple instances to support high
load
Assumptions:
• US energy mix
Source: John O’Hara
carbon as a function of load
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“let’s decide everything at runtime”
why a duck?
duck typing!
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dynamic pre-decided
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lazy eager
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“distribute all the things, all the time”
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microservices
hyper-distributed
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amazon prime video
reduced costs by
90%
by moving to a monolith
2023
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latency
complexity
infra cost
computing power
resilience
independent lifecycles
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git
github
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data centre ai
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data centre ai vs distributed ai
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hype cycles
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grid
internet of things
digital twin
model-driven-development
low code
cloud native
kubernetes
microservices
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the morning after the
technology before
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the lunch
was not free
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– Meredith Whittaker
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– Meredith Whittaker
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– Meredith Whittaker
“It’s not simply that one piece of technology
is overhyped, it’s that hype is a necessary
ingredient of the current business ecosystem
of the tech industry.”
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grid
internet of things
digital twin
model-driven-development
low code
cloud native
kubernetes
microservices
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grid
internet of things
digital twin
model-driven-development
low code
cloud native
kubernetes
microservices
ai
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venture capital
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baby company
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baby company
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baby company
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funding rounds
baby company
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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“exit”
funding rounds
baby company
attracted
investment
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“exit”
funding rounds
baby company
IPO
attracted
investment
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“exit”
funding rounds
baby company
IPO
acquisition
attracted
investment
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“exit”
funding rounds
baby company
IPO
acquisition
attracted
investment
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what attracts
investment?
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what attracts
investment?
stability?
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what attracts
investment?
stability?
profitability?
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what attracts
investment?
stability?
profitability?
revenue?
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what attracts
investment?
growth
stability?
profitability?
revenue?
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what attracts
investment?
growth
stability?
profitability?
excitement
revenue?
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what attracts
investment?
growth
stability?
profitability?
excitement
revenue?
hiring
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what attracts
investment?
growth
stability?
profitability?
excitement
revenue?
likelihood of
selling stake
at a profit
hiring
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“a world without developers”
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low code
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IDENTIFICATION DIVISION.
PROGRAM-ID. COBCALC.
ENVIRONMENT DIVISION.
DATA DIVISION.
WORKING-STORAGE SECTION.
01 PARM-1.
05 CALL-FEEDBACK PIC XX.
01 FIELDS.
05 INPUT-1 PIC X(10).
01 INPUT-BUFFER-FIELDS.
05 BUFFER-PTR PIC 9.
05 BUFFER-DATA.
10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "LOAN".
10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "PVALUE".
10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "pvalue".
10 FILLER PIC X(10) VALUE "END".
05 BUFFER-ARRAY REDEFINES BUFFER-DATA
OCCURS 4 TIMES
PIC X(10).
PROCEDURE DIVISION.
DISPLAY "CALC Begins." UPON CONSOLE.
MOVE 1 TO BUFFER-PTR.
MOVE SPACES TO INPUT-1.
* Keep processing data until END requested
PERFORM ACCEPT-INPUT UNTIL INPUT-1 EQUAL TO "END".
* END requested
DISPLAY "CALC Ends." UPON CONSOLE.
GOBACK.
* End of program.
*
* Accept input data from buffer
*
ACCEPT-INPUT.
MOVE BUFFER-ARRAY (BUFFER-PTR) TO INPUT-1.
ADD 1 BUFFER-PTR GIVING BUFFER-PTR.
* Allow input data to be in UPPER or lower case
EVALUATE FUNCTION UPPER-CASE(INPUT-1) CALC1
WHEN "END"
MOVE "END" TO INPUT-1
WHEN "LOAN"
PERFORM CALCULATE-LOAN
WHEN "PVALUE"
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jevon’s paradox
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jevon’s paradox
“efficiency
improvements can lead
to increased
consumption”
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what we imagine
when we widen roads
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what we get
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software is not
going away
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1800s
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“knocker-up”
1800s
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“knocker-up”
1800s
human alarm clock
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“knocker-up”
1800s - 1940s
human alarm clock
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“knocker-up”
1800s
finite demand
- 1940s
human alarm clock
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“knocker-up”
1800s
finite demand
only employees need waking up
- 1940s
human alarm clock
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“knocker-up”
1800s
finite demand
only employees need waking up
no one needs waking up more than once
- 1940s
human alarm clock
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the more software we have,
the more we want
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software to do stuff
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
software to manage the software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
software to manage the software
software to write the software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
software to manage the software
software to write the software
software to manage the software that writes the software
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
software to manage the software
software to write the software
software to manage the software that writes the software
software to try and avoid skynet
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
software to manage the software
software to write the software
software to manage the software that writes the software
software to try and avoid skynet
software to work out the meaning of life
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software to do stuff
software to do more stuff
software to tell people about software
software to bypass advertisements in the software
software to bypass the bypass software so ads still show
software to gamify software
software to monitor the software
software to debug the vibe-coded software
software to manage the software
software to write the software
software to manage the software that writes the software
software to try and avoid skynet
software to work out the meaning of life
…
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No content
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ok but
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usa developer vacancies
Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709
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Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709
uk developer vacancies
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“our AI strategy
is working”
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AI-washing
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overhiring
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people-stockpiling
overhiring
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what attracts
investment?
growth
stability?
profitability?
excitement
revenue?
likelihood of
selling stake
at a profit
hiring
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economic cycles
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free money
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debt
financial
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debt
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ZIRP
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“zero interest-rate phenomenon”
ZIRP
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0%
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<1%
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Source: Bank of England
uk interest rates
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Source: Bank of England
averting
subprime
collapse
uk interest rates
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Source: Bank of England
averting
subprime
collapse
covid
uk interest rates
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Source: Bank of England
averting
subprime
collapse
covid
0.1% (!)
uk interest rates
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Source: Bank of England
averting
subprime
collapse
covid
0.1% (!)
in
fl
ation
shortages
war
uk interest rates
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Source: Bank of England
uk interest rates
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Source: Bank of England
uk interest rates
the period
most of us
remember
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exit
attracted investment
baby company
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exit
attracted investment
baby company
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exit
attracted investment
baby company
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exit
attracted investment
baby company
risk
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ZIRP
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software company
ZIRP
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government bond
software company
ZIRP
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government bond
risk
return
software company
ZIRP
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government bond
risk
return
software company
high
ZIRP
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government bond
risk
return
software company
high
20% - 500%
ZIRP
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government bond
low
risk
return
software company
high
20% - 500%
ZIRP
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government bond
low
0%
risk
return
software company
high
20% - 500%
ZIRP
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government bond
low
0%
risk
return
software company
high
20% - 500%
ZIRP
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government bond
low
4%
risk
return
software company
high
20% - 500%
post-ZIRP
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government bond
low
4%
risk
return
software company
high
20% - 500%
post-ZIRP
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less investment
means less hiring
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less investment
means less hiring
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Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709
usa developer vacancies
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Source: indeed.com via https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/software-engineering-job-openings?publication_id=458709
usa developer vacancies
chatgpt
released
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software is not
going away
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Source: indeed.com via https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/
developer vacancies
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Source: indeed.com via https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/
developer vacancies
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sleep debt
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“a world without work”
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“a world without rest”
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hustle
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grind
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the 996
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average working week
66 hours
1826
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productivity stayed the same
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the four day working week
2026
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42% decrease in resignations
the four day working week
2026
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42% decrease in resignations
the four day working week
2026
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the value of doing nothing
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the default mode network
idle minds can solve
hard problems
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desks are not the only
place value is created
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desks are not the only
place value is created
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14% took showers
speci
fi
cally for the
purpose of coming up
with ideas
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are we taking more showers?
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professions using ai worked
3.15
hours
more per week
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/ais-power-grows-so-does-our-workday
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what we get
jevon’s paradox in action
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euphoria
fear
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productivity
panic
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productivity
panic
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“disposable
busyware”
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workslop
is pollution
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code isn’t an
asset, it’s a liability
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even good code
is a liability
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vibe now pay later
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technical debt
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“engineering discipline”
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but why can’t you put
the [non-engineer]’s vibe-
coded feature into
production? it looks so
pretty …
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the
return of
the spec
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the return of TDD
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epistemic debt
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the collapse of competence
epistemic debt
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getting stuff done
understanding all
the low-level details
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getting stuff done
understanding all
the low-level details
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Edsger Dijkstra, 1975
“The use of COBOL
cripples the mind.”
how do you get better at
seeing repeating patterns?
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be old?
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Philip Greenspun
“any sufficiently complicated C or Fortran
program contains an ad hoc, informally-
specified, bug-ridden, slow
implementation of half of Common Lisp”
Greenspun’s 10th rule
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how old was Philip Greenspun?
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how old was Philip Greenspun?
29
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- what problem are we
trying to solve?
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- what problem are we
trying to solve?
- what’s the tradeoff?
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be curious
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be curious about
the past
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why are things the way they are now?
are there assumptions that have
changed?
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opportunity
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analog
sql
quarkus
github
opportunity
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look for opportunities
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tl;dpa
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
- sometimes there isn’t a trade-o
ff
.
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
- sometimes there isn’t a trade-o
ff
.
- think about sustainability of your IT
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
- sometimes there isn’t a trade-o
ff
.
- think about sustainability of your IT
- for environment
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
- sometimes there isn’t a trade-o
ff
.
- think about sustainability of your IT
- for environment
- for people
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
- sometimes there isn’t a trade-o
ff
.
- think about sustainability of your IT
- for environment
- for people
-
fi
nancially
(too long; didn’t pay attention)
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tl;dpa
- nothing is new under the sun.
- there’s almost always a trade-o
ff
.
fi
nd it.
- sometimes there isn’t a trade-o
ff
.
- think about sustainability of your IT
- for environment
- for people
-
fi
nancially
- recycle ideas everyone else has forgotten.
(too long; didn’t pay attention)