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Modeled Water Table Depth •Tool is used to assess the current areas in south Florida environmentally primed for arboviral transmission based upon surface hydrological conditions. •MWTD data are calculated from GEWEX data through a topographically based hydrology (TBH) model developed by Jeffery Shaman (Oregon State University) and Jonathan Day (University of Florida). GEWEX •Real-time, hourly data of land surface meteorological conditions distributed at 0.125° resolution NOAA through its Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Project. •MWTD weekly deviations from SLE Epidemics Modeol average, by site, are calculated and input into a Geographic Information System (GIS) model developed by Jonathan Day and Gregory Ross (University of Florida). GIS Arboviral transmission Model •GIS model output is weekly real-time Arboviral Transmission Risk Maps based upon 1977/1990 SLE epidemic models (1 km resolution). •Identifies spatiotemporal areas where mosquito vectors and bird populations would be driven together due to hydrological drought conditions, thereby providing for arboviral amplification of SLE and WNV.

IDD IWET SDD SWET IDD – Initial Dry Down (weeks 14 – 22) IWET – Initial Wetting (weeks 23 – 27) SDD – Secondary Dry Down (weeks 28-32) SWET – Secondary Wetting (weeks 32 -37)

High Deviation from Model Low Deviation from Model Model Input Weeks IDD Phase Weighting IWET Phase Weighting SDD Phase Weighting SWET Phase Weighting IDD Deviations (1) 14-22 50% 30% 20% 15% IWET Deviations 23-27 0% 30% 20% 15% SDD Deviations 28-32 0% 0% 40% 40% SWET Deviations 33-37 (52) 0% 0% 0% 15% AMP Deviations 1-52 50% 40% 20% 15%

Low Risk High Risk Environmental Conditions? YES Bird Populations? NO Mosquito Populations? YES Week 36 2006 Identifies areas that are spatially and temporally environmentally PRIMED for EPIDEMIC arboviral transmission Primed Epidemic Variables

2006 ! . Selected MWTD Sites Week 36 Risk (Ending 09/09/2006) Low Risk Low - Moderate Risk Moderate Risk Moderate - High Risk High Risk 2006 Total SLE Seroconversions ! ( 1 ! ( 2 ! ( 3 ! ( 4 2006 Week 36 Risk (Ending 09/09/2006) Low Risk Low - Moderate Risk Moderate Risk Moderate - High Risk High Risk 2006 Total SLE Seroconversions ! ( 1 ! ( 2 ! ( 3 ! ( 4

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Obtain Funding for development of a North Florida Hydrological Model (TBH) Continue Temporal Calibration of GIS Model Integrate with Sentinel Chicken Seroconversion GIS Model Develop Predictive Model based upon previous years’ data.