Island  Climate  Update  181   Forecast  period:   October  –  December  2015   Teleconference  Thursday  1st  of  October  2015   (12:30  PM  NZ  Dme)   1/10/15   1   

1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (September  2015)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     1/10/15   2   Outline     

1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec;on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   1/10/15   3   

Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM  /  GPM)     1/10/15   4   

1/10/15   5   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml   

1/10/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   

SST  anomalies  August  2015   SST  anomalies  September  2015   1/10/15   7   

1/10/15   8   

2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa;on  and  forecast     1/10/15   9   

SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   1/10/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10   

The  ENSO  Precipita;on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (29  Sep.)  is  +2.21   (El  Niño)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   1/10/15   hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11   

Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   1/10/15   hTp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/   12   

Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   1/10/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   August  2015     September  2015     Last  5  days  (28  September)   

1/10/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   

ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       1/10/15   15   CPC/IRI  Early-­‐Month  Consensus  ENSO  Forecast  ProbabiliDes   IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast   ProbabiliDes     Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   OND  2015   0%   1%   99%   JFM  2016   1%   5%   94%   AMJ  2016   5%   40%   55%   

3)  MJO  diagnos;cs  and  forecasts     1/10/15   16   

Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Monitoring  (BoM)   1/10/15   hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     17   

Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   1/10/15   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     18   

Madden  Julian  Oscilla;on  sta;s;cal  Forecast  (CPC)   1/10/15   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     19   

4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts  (OND  2015)   1/10/15   20   

1/10/15   21   

1/10/15   22   METPI  rainfall  results   October – December 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE High Tokelau 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Marquesas 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Northern) 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Austral Islands 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Society Islands 45 35 20 BELOW High Wallis & Futuna 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 45 35 20 BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 50 30 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 50 30 20 BELOW High Samoa 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu 50 30 20 BELOW High Niue 55 30 15 BELOW High Tonga 55 30 15 BELOW High Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. 

1/10/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   

6)  METPI  SST  forecasts  (OND  2015)   1/10/15   24   

1/10/15   25