NS Data Expo 2024 - Speaker Deck

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4 Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability Marthe Veldhuis Data Scientist / Machine Learning Engineer Nederlandse Spoorwegen

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1. Planning your route 2. Paddling to the destination 3. Staying in tandem Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 5

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Planning your route Part 1

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Determine succes at the start 7 Give certainty Provide a warning

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Talk to people ■ End-users Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 8

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Talk to people ■ End-users ■ Indirect users Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 9

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Talk to people ■ End-users ■ Indirect users ■ Colleagues Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 10

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Talk to people ■ End-users ■ Indirect users ■ Colleagues ■ User eXperience Designers Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 11

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Involve UXD from the start 12 Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability

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Paddling to the destination Part 2

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 14 Start simple

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 15 “Last week” model: 𝑅2 = 0,50 MAE = 28 Use the right metrics

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 16 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: 𝑅2 = 0,54 MAE = 28

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 17 Use the right metrics

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 18 Use the right metrics “Last week” model: low range recall = 63%

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 19 Use the right metrics XGBoost model: low range recall = 28%

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Staying in tandem Part 3

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 21 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures Forecasted situation Actual situation Warned Disappointed

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Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 22 Translate your metrics to intuitive measures

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1. Planning your route • Determine succes • Talk to people • Involve UXD 2. Paddling to the destination • Start simple • Use the right metrics 3. Staying in tandem • Translate your metrics Gear up for success: Practical insights from forecasting OV-fiets availability 23