RSGT2026 Dave Snowden Keynote

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2022 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law EVERY CORPSE ON EVEREST WAS ONCE AN EXTREMELY MOTIVATED PERSON, POSSESSING A STRONG SENSE OF URGENCY, ENGAGED BY INSPIRED LEADERS, WITH SHARED PURPOSE & AN AGILE MINDSET 1

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law Verb, transitive. To return (land) to a wilder and more natural state. Used esp. with reference to the reintroduction of (large) mammals of or similar to species that were exterminated locally at some earlier period. Oxford English Dictionary 2 Photo by Derek Otway on Unsplash

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law A T O O F A M I L I A R P A T H W A Y WHAT WENT WRONG? Too many recipe book users, very few chefs The paradox of structure in adoption The certi fi cation scam starting at the end of someone else’s journey Confusing correlation with causation Too many platitudes from homogeneity to coherent heterogeneity 4

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law USING NATURAL SCIENCE AS AN ENABLING CONSTRAINT 5 Photo by The New York Public Library on Unsplash

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law 6 24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla. Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law W H A T S T O R I E S D O Y O U T E L L Y O U R C H I L D R E N ? TOLERATED FAILURE CREATES MORE LEARNING THAN SUCCESS 7

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law H O W W E E V O L V E D TYPES OF GROUPS Sexual pairs affords micro-coordination Task-group (5) foraging and direct interface with habitat affords distributed cognition Demes (30) migration & collaborative behaviour between hunting & foraging groups affords a shared construction of reality. & identity Macrodeme (< 300) foreasonal gathering genetic variety stabilises language and more collective identities. 8 Photo by Jack B on Unsplash

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law “ ..Complexity is looking at interacting elements and asking how they form patterns and how the patterns unfold. It’s important to point out that the patterns may never be finished. They’re open-ended. In standard science this hit some things that most scientists have a negative reaction to. Science doesn’t like perpetual novelty.” ” Brian Arthur 9

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law W H A T C A N B E M A N A G E D AIMS Actants (anything which modulates or in fl uences) Actors people, roles, teams Constraints connect or contain Constructors transform by passage or contagion Interactions rich, local to stimulate emergence Monitors including human sensor networks Scaffolding 10 Photo by Mikita Karasiou on Unsplash

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law T H E P A G O D A F R A M E W O R K MANAGING COMPLEXITY Proximity we don’t respond to distant threat Anomalies without them we don’t pay attention Granularity needs to be optimal (generally smaller) Obliquity never approach a complex issue directly Disintermediation remove all interpretative layers Abduction is how humans reason; computers are inductive 11 Photo by Tom Vining on Unsplash

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2020 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law Complex probe - sense - respond Enabling constraints Exaptive Complicated sense - analyse - respond Governing constraints Good Clear sense - categories - respond Rigid constraints Best Chaos act - sense - respond No effective constraints Novel A C • The Oxford English Dictionary includes two forms of the word: the adjective "aporetic", which it de fi nes as "to be at a loss", "impassable", and "inclined to doubt, or to raise objections"; and the noun form "aporia", which it de fi nes as the "state of the aporetic" and "a perplexity or di ff i culty". • In philosophy, an aporia is a philosophical puzzle or a seemingly insoluble impasse in an inquiry, often arising as a result of equally plausible yet inconsistent premises (i.e. a paradox). Aporetic or Confused? 2 di ff erernet states of “not knowing”

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law B U I L D I N G N E T W O R K S ENTANGLED TRIOS Creating channels for knowledge fl ow in advance of need: critical in a crisis Problem-solving at scale with low cost Con fl ict resolution at scale Tight connectivity creates rapid adaptability & discovery Innovation by crossing silos Can be important in retention and mentoring You are less dependent on Golden People Three, Five or Seven - basis for distributed resource allocation and decision making 15

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law “ The greatest loss of time is delay and expectation, which depend upon the future. We let go the present, which we have in our power, and look forward to that which depends upon chance, and so relinquish a certainty for an uncertainty. ” - Seneca the Younger 16 Image by Sergey Sosnovskiy, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law 18 ACTORS CONSTRUCTORS CONSTRAINTS UNATTRIBUTED PHENOMENA PROCESS PHENOMENA NO ATTRIBUTION LIMINAL e t COUNTER FACTUAL VOLATILE Portfolio of risk mitigation actions

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law ASSEMBLAGES 19 - Panagiotou & Snowden 2024 “ An assemblage is an ensemble of heterogeneous elements which compose a territory. Assemblage is a slightly problematic term in English as it doesn’t mean an assembly of parts. It “translates to agencement; meaning to arrange, to play out or to piece together”, it is “not a a unified whole, but more a heterogeneous co-existence”.

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law RCN and Cynefin Co Web Site “ When I go to the exec board, I no longer feel like I am speaking on behalf of the nurses; their voices are in the room with me.” 20 R O Y A L C O L L E G E O F N U R S I N G The text is anecdotal, based on notes taken during a meeting. Triads have been mixed and partially altered from two separate projects to preserve confidentiality.

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Material in this presentation is Copyright © 2026 Cognitive Edge Ltd All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law F I V E K E Y A C T I O N S RESILIENCE Build human sensor networks for ordinary purposes that can then be activated for extraordinary needs. Stimulate the formation of informal networks across silos (internal & external) Map what you know at the right level of granularity to allow for innovation through radical repurposing (exaptation) Create specialised crews and use human- centric games and simulations. in advance. Map the factors and energy gradients of the current state, work to make bene fi cial pathways easier 24 Background photo oto by Seth Biggers on Unsplash

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“ HE WILL KILL MICE AND HE WILL BE KIND TO BABIES WHEN HE IS IN THE HOUSE, JUST AS LONG AS THEY DO NOT PULL HIS TAIL TOO HARD. BUT WHEN HE HAS DONE THAT, AND BETWEEN TIMES, AND WHEN THE MOON GETS UP AND NIGHT COMES, HE IS THE CAT THAT WALKS BY HIMSELF, AND ALL PLACES ARE ALIKE TO HIM. THEN HE GOES OUT TO THE WET WILD WOODS OR UP THE WET WILD TREES OR ON THE WET WILD ROOFS, WAVING HIS WILD TAIL AND WALKING BY HIS WILD LONE.” –Kipling ‘Just So Stories’ 1902