ICU_188 - Speaker Deck

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Island Climate Update 188 Forecast period: May – July 2016 Teleconference Wednesday 4th of May 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Cme) 4/05/16 1

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1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies last month (April 2016) 2) ENSO (Paciﬁc Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 4/05/16 2 Outline

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1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec;on) and SST in the SW Paciﬁc 4/05/16 3

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Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 4/05/16 4

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4/05/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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4/05/16 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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SST anomalies April 2016 4/05/16 7 SST anomalies March 2016

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4/05/16 8

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2) ENSO (Paciﬁc Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa;on and forecast 4/05/16 9

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SOI and SST NINO INDICES 4/05/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10

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The ENSO Precipita;on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days (3 May) is +0.95 (El Niño) SOI and ESPI INDICES 4/05/16 hTp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11

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Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 4/05/16 12

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Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 4/05/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml April 2016 Last 5 days (May 2) March 2016

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4/05/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 4/05/16 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. MJJ 2016 5% 76% 29% ASO 2016 52% 40% 8% NDJ 2016/17 60% 30% 10% Climate Model or Group MJJ 2016 ASO 2016 NDJ 2016/17 POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral Neutral Unavailable ECMWF (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral NCEP CFS (USA) Neutral La Niña La Niña Met Office (UK) Neutral + Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) La Niña La Niña La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) La Niña La Niña Unavailable JMA (Japan) Neutral La Niña Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral Neutral La Niña CPC CCA (USA) Neutral + Neutral - La Niña NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral - CLIPER (USA) Neutral Neutral - La Niña Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral + Neutral - Neutral -

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3) MJO diagnos;cs and forecasts 4/05/16 16

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Madden Julian Oscilla;on Monitoring (BoM) 4/05/16 hTp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or hTp://cawcr.gov.au/staﬀ/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 17

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Madden Julian Oscilla;on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 4/05/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 18

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Madden Julian Oscilla;on sta;s;cal Forecast (CPC) 4/05/16 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast 19

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4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (MJJ 2016) 4/05/16 20

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4/05/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days Rainfall forecasts for MJJ 2016

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4/05/16 22 METPI rainfall results May – July 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Cook Islands (Northern) 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 20 30 50 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE High Marquesas 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Society Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 30 35 35 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Kiribati (Western) 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Papua New Guinea 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High New Caledonia 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Solomon Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Kiribati (Eastern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate Wallis & Futuna 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is