SUMMER SCENARIOS An Educa1onal Webinar Series By the Consor1um for Scenario Planning www.scenarioplanning.io 

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING: HOW SCENARIO PLANNING CAN SUPPORT PERFORMANCE-BASED PLANNING Webinar 3 of 5: www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/ 

Learning Objec1ves 1.  Recognize available US Federal Highway Administra=on (FHWA) resources 2.  Explain key features of performance-based transporta=on planning 3.  Explore how scenarios are used to support confident transporta=on planning decisions 

Agenda 1.  Speaker introduc=ons 2.  Interview with US Federal Highway Administra=on (FHWA) staff §  Performance-Based Transporta=on Planning §  Scenarios in Transporta=on Planning §  Suppor=ng Performance-Based Planning with Scenarios 3.  Audience ques=ons 4.  Closing 

Speakers & Facilitator Speakers: •  Jeremy Raw, P.E. - Community Planner, FHWA Office of Planning •  Jim Thorne - Transporta=on Specialist, FHWA Office of Planning Facilitator: •  Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP - Decision Support Fellow, Consor=um for Scenario Planning, Lincoln Ins=tute of Land Policy, [email protected] 

Could you tell us about the basic elements of performance-based planning? 

Performance-Based Planning: Defini1on •  Evaluate measurable outcomes •  Then do things to move toward the target •  Measurable – “What is it?” •  Target – “What does it mean?” NO CRASHES 

Performance-Based Planning: By The Numbers •  Measure something •  Is it Good or Bad? •  Set targets •  Change for the be`er •  Measure again •  Repeat un=l happy 

h`ps://www.cwa.dot.gov/planning/performance_based_planning/pbpp_guidebook/ Evaluate Plan Build Observe Vision 

Performance-Based Planning in Detail 

Can you give us examples of how professionals have used scenarios for transporta1on planning? 

Three Simple Scenarios Continue as planned Focus growth in bigger cities Focus growth in smaller cities and towns 

Denver Scenarios Urban Footprint Transporta1on Investment Priori1es Compact Expanded Highways Transit Scenario B Baseline 

Denver Scenarios Urban Footprint Transporta1on Investment Priori1es Compact Expanded Highways Transit Scenario B Baseline Scenario A Scenario C Scenario D Scenario E Scenario F 

DRCOG: Comparing Outcomes 

FHWA Scenario Planning Guidebook 

Explores: freight movement, climate change, technology, sustainability, energy, and socio demographics Explains how events and trends may shape the transporta1on system of 30-50 years in the future. www.trb.org/nchrp750/ForesightReport750Series.aspx 

DVRPC Future Forces •  Enduring Urbanism •  People and jobs moving to walkable communi=es is the start of a long-term trend. •  Free Agent Economy •  Increased outsourcing and automa=on means individuals must create their own economic opportuni=es. •  Severe Climate •  Con=nued rise in atmospheric carbon levels lead to significant disrup=ons from climate change. •  Transporta=on on Demand •  Smartphones, apps, and real-=me info help people get around using new and exis=ng transporta=on modes. •  US Energy Boom •  An abundance of domes=cally produced oil and natural gas keeps the cost of energy low. 

Can you talk in detail about the connec1on between scenario planning and performance-based planning? 

Scenario Planning Supports Performance-Based Planning and Programming •  Apply performance management concepts in transporta=on planning and programming processes •  Based on strategic direc=on to shape decisions about policies and investments •  Ensure that transporta=on investment decisions (long-range and short-range) are based on their ability to meet established goals 

Scenario Planning and PBPP 

How do you see scenario planning evolving to support transporta1on planning, given new and emerging challenges? 

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Next Genera1on Scenario Planning A TRANSPORTATION PRACTITIONER’S GUIDE Ø  Describe evolu=on of scenario planning in transporta=on planning. Ø  Iden=fy planning elements in process. Ø  Provide framework to scope and apply scenario planning based on ques=ons community trying to address. Scenario Planning does not try to predict the future 

Next Genera1on Scenario Planning A TRANSPORTATION PRACTITIONER’S GUIDE Ø  “Norma=ve” scenario development explores what is important Ø  Replace “certainty of outcome” with “certainty of direc=on” Ø  Examine metrics and possible targets Scenario Planning clarifies community goals 

Ø  Explore risks and uncertainty Ø  Fiscal constraints Ø  Federal, State, Local Funding outlook Ø  Changing travel behavior Ø  More frequent and extreme weather events Ø  Changing market and economic trends Ø  Shared economy Ø  Technology advances Scenario Planning prepares for range of possible futures Next Genera1on Scenario Planning A TRANSPORTATION PRACTITIONER’S GUIDE 

Prac=cally speaking, how do you see this newer approach to scenario planning playing out in rela=onship to performance- based planning? 

How to Handle Uncertainty •  Take small steps •  Do experiments and pilot projects •  Reassess regularly •  Prac=ce the Performance-Based cycle in “small bites” 

Scenarios are Stories, Not End States •  How we might get there is cri=cal •  Examine “Drivers”, “Levers”, “Tipping Points”, “Prerequisites”, “Black Swans”, etc. •  Aim for resiliency in plans – Which set of projects gives us the most flexibility in the face of everything that might happen? 

Summary of Scenarios for Performance-Based Planning •  Pick useful metrics –  Detect key scenario events –  Quan=fy “success” •  Use targets comprehensively –  How are we doing? –  Are we going where we expected? –  How fast is the future coming at us? •  Develop con=ngency responses and projects –  What would we do if… ? –  Test projects against challenging scenarios •  Rethink scenarios based on what is happening 

Upcoming Events and Publica1ons •  NCHRP 20-109 Task 09: Impact of CAV on Planning Tools and Models •  Scenario Planning for Vehicular Automa=on (FHWA Office of Policy) •  AMPO Whitepaper Series and Automa=on Planning Framework (Fall 2018/Early 2019) 

Audience Ques1ons 

What is the Consor1um? It provides training and peer exchange to support professionals as they get started with scenario planning and take it to more advanced levels. Who can benefit? Urban, regional, and rural planners and managers, as well as others, are welcome. Official partners include: How can I learn more? Become a par=cipant or join the mailing list by visi=ng the website at scenarioplanning.io or contac=ng Janae at [email protected]. 

Upcoming Summer Scenarios www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/ Public Outreach: How scenario planning can be used as an engagement technique People and Economies: How quan=ta=ve regional scenarios can set the table for policy and planning August 7 August 29 

Upcoming Consor1um Conference h`p://www.scenarioplanning.io/conferences/ September 12-14 in Columbus, Ohio with host agency Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Save the Date 

Thank you to the presenters and a`endees! Contact [email protected] with ques=ons. 

Addi1onal FHWA Resources 

FHWA/NARC Synthesis Report •  Tools and Techniques •  Benefits •  Barriers •  Review of Tools •  Agency Capaci=es Classifica=on 

Report to Congress •  Leads to investment decisions that align with regional goals •  Integrates regional transporta=on and local land use planning •  Improves public and stakeholder involvement •  Broadens agency and public understanding of future challenges and opportuni=es •  •  

Scenarios on the Borders •  Corridor and Gateway needs and trends •  Mul=modal freight and passenger flows 

Advancing TSMO through Scenario Planning Ø  Consider uncertain=es that impact TSMO Ø  Adapt to shiqing behavior or community goals Ø  Examine tradeoffs among strategies Ø  Build consensus on compe=ng goals Ø  Translate goals to specific TSMO strategies 

TPCB Scenario Planning Program 2018 Peer Workshops MTC WAMPO