I Estimate This Talk is 30 Minutes (Give or take 10)

Slide 1

Slide 1 text

This slide Intentionally left blank Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

How far do you live from an airport? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

I live !" minutes from one Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

If I'm in a car And the weather is good And it's not rush hour And I don't blow a tire Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

Failing any of these makes my trip longer Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

This talk is 20 30 minutes (give or take 10) Noel Rappin, Table XI (@noelrap) Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

I am an idiosyncratic crank about estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

Are software developers uniquely bad at estimates? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

Ever done a home remodel? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

Big Dig Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

Initial cost estimate $5.8 billion !!!!!! Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

Final cost: $21.93 billion And counting... !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

It's not just our problem Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

What can we do about it? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

What if we didn't estimate? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

What if we just did stuff and got paid? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

Sure, I'll tear up your kitchen. And bill you when I'm done. Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

Customers reasonably expect estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

Estimates are Communication Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

Communication with $$$ Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

Estimates communicate: investment Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

Estimates communicate: progress Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

Estimates communicate: scope Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

Bad Estimates communicate: Unrealistic expectations Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

Bad Estimates communicate: Way too much... Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

So, let's just do good Estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

Estimating at the beginning is the worst Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

Like guessing time to the airport if you don't even know where the airport is Or if you even need to fly... Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

How can we estimate Effectively? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

Even when we know Nothing Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

A quick sidebar of agile terms Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

Feature / Story The unit of work in a project Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

Iteration The unit of planning in a project Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

Point The size of a story Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

Velocity Points per interation Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

Kind of a theory of estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

Estimating projects vs. Estimating features Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

Nobody really cares about estimating features Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

They only care about when users can use stuff Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

Feature estimates are only useful to get you to project estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 42

Slide 42 text

Estimates are estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 43

Slide 43 text

Estimates are probabilistic Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 44

Slide 44 text

Chance of rain: 50% ☔ Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 45

Slide 45 text

This is a ! point story Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 46

Slide 46 text

What makes an estimate wrong? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 47

Slide 47 text

Bad assumptions Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 48

Slide 48 text

Misunderstanding the problem Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 49

Slide 49 text

Scope Creep Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 50

Slide 50 text

Unknown complexity Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 51

Slide 51 text

Rework Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 52

Slide 52 text

Developers are optimists Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 53

Slide 53 text

Sometimes there is pressure Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 54

Slide 54 text

A lower estimate doesn't make it less complex Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 55

Slide 55 text

How to do better Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 56

Slide 56 text

Uncertanty Not Precision Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 57

Slide 57 text

What goes into the amount of calendar time a feature takes? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 58

Slide 58 text

Complexity of the task Skill of the developer Time on task Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 59

Slide 59 text

We are bad at estimating time on task Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 60

Slide 60 text

But it tends to be consistent over time Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 61

Slide 61 text

Skill of the developer Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 62

Slide 62 text

We're also not that great at estimating this Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 63

Slide 63 text

And it's toxic Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 64

Slide 64 text

But it tends to be consistent over time Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 65

Slide 65 text

We are pretty good at estimating complexity Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 66

Slide 66 text

Which is to say ! ⚪ ! Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 67

Slide 67 text

Estimate complexity and let time sort itself out Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 68

Slide 68 text

The humble point Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 69

Slide 69 text

Time on task and relative skill average out Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 70

Slide 70 text

Which is like basing our airport estimate on: Distance to airport Average speed in the past Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 71

Slide 71 text

Consistency Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 72

Slide 72 text

Of team size Of story makeup Of environment Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 73

Slide 73 text

Decomposing the problem into similar size chunks helps Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 74

Slide 74 text

But you need data Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 75

Slide 75 text

The problem of one-off estimates Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 76

Slide 76 text

How do I estimate at the beginning of a project? Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 77

Slide 77 text

The worst way to estimate (except for all the other ways) Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 78

Slide 78 text

Fake it Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 79

Slide 79 text

Don't fake knowledge Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 80

Slide 80 text

Fake your velocity Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 81

Slide 81 text

Don't spend time chasing precision Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 82

Slide 82 text

your output is a range Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 83

Slide 83 text

Split the tasks as best you can Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 84

Slide 84 text

Assign points 1: easy, less than a day 3: has complexity or risk 5: has a lot more complexity or risk Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 85

Slide 85 text

Don't spend a lot of time assigning points to a single task Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 86

Slide 86 text

Round up Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 87

Slide 87 text

At the beginning (and only at the begining) You can range estimate stories Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 88

Slide 88 text

You end up with Range of points Say... (100 - 120) Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 89

Slide 89 text

Apply a load factor (5 - 7 hours per point) Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 90

Slide 90 text

Low points * low factor High points * high factor = (100 * 5) - (120 * 7) = (500 - 840) hours Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 91

Slide 91 text

hours * rate = estimate = ($75,000 - $126,000) Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 92

Slide 92 text

Clearly describe the limits Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 93

Slide 93 text

Understand that this will change Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 94

Slide 94 text

You are headed to the airport together Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 95

Slide 95 text

Thanks Image credits 4 http://www.constructionequipmentguide.com/ historical/big-dig/ Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap

Slide 96

Slide 96 text

Noel Rappin (@noelrap) Table XI http://www.noelrappin.com/trdd (coupon code RUBYCONF2015) http://pragprog.com/book/nrtest2 Noel Rappin, This talk is 20 30 minutes long, RubyConf 2015. http://www.noelrappin.com | http://www.tablexi.com | @noelrap