Slide 1

Slide 1 text

Redefining Confidence Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

You do have in-depth technical knowledge. But you often use words that make your statements sound weaker.

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

You could be even more confident.

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

Thank you, I will consider that. But... You could be even more confident.

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

“People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” Daniel Kahneman, „Thinking fast and slow“

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

People are generally rational Emotions explain the exceptions What we usually assume Cognitive Biases

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

7 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Cognitive_bias_codex_en.svg

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

Confirmation Bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

9

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

Confirmation Bias et al Don’t repeat yourself, ever.

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

Software development is full of uncertainty

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/04/uncertainty-stressful-research-neuroscience

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

Zero Risk Bias Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a overall risk.

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

Zero Risk Bias Security Avoiding Lock-in Premature optimization

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

Availability Heuristic Our tendency to think that if something can be easily recalled, it must be important

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

Use models

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

Use models Threat modelling Security

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

Use models “Don’t get locked up in avoiding lock-in” Gregor Hohpe https://martinfowler.com/articles/oss-lockin.html Avoiding Lock-in

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

Be explicit about trade-offs

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

Do Be Agile https://agilemanifesto.org/

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

Software delivery is full of uncertainty

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

Architecture is “the important stuff that people perceive as hard to change” - Martin Fowler

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

Learning from our decisions

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

Outcome Bias Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision based on the outcome of that decision.

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

Outcome Bias Outcome Decision ?

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

Outcome Bias Outcome Decision ?

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

Outcome Bias

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

Distinguish skill from luck Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets” &&

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

”...given what we knew at the time, our skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.”

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

Self-serving Bias When we ascribe success to our own abilities and efforts, but blame failure on external factors

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

|| “Redefining right” Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

Be explicit about trade-offs

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

Write Architecture Decision Records

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

Outcome bias Confirmation Bias Zero Risk Bias Availability Heuristic Self-serving bias More

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

“You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

“You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean? Do I really want to?

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

“I’m not sure” Asking questions Changing my mind

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

“Using uncertainty to our advantage” - Annie Duke

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

How confident are you about your confidence?

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

No content