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Redefining Confidence Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410
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You do have in-depth technical knowledge. But you often use words that make your statements sound weaker.
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You could be even more confident.
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Thank you, I will consider that. But... You could be even more confident.
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“People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” Daniel Kahneman, „Thinking fast and slow“
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People are generally rational Emotions explain the exceptions What we usually assume Cognitive Biases
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7 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Cognitive_bias_codex_en.svg
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Confirmation Bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs
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Confirmation Bias et al Don’t repeat yourself, ever.
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Software development is full of uncertainty
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/04/uncertainty-stressful-research-neuroscience
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Zero Risk Bias Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a overall risk.
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Zero Risk Bias Security Avoiding Lock-in Premature optimization
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Availability Heuristic Our tendency to think that if something can be easily recalled, it must be important
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Use models
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Use models Threat modelling Security
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Use models “Don’t get locked up in avoiding lock-in” Gregor Hohpe https://martinfowler.com/articles/oss-lockin.html Avoiding Lock-in
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Be explicit about trade-offs
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Do Be Agile https://agilemanifesto.org/
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Software delivery is full of uncertainty
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Architecture is “the important stuff that people perceive as hard to change” - Martin Fowler
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Learning from our decisions
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Outcome Bias Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision based on the outcome of that decision.
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Outcome Bias Outcome Decision ?
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Outcome Bias Outcome Decision ?
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Outcome Bias
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Distinguish skill from luck Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets” &&
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”...given what we knew at the time, our skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.”
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Self-serving Bias When we ascribe success to our own abilities and efforts, but blame failure on external factors
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|| “Redefining right” Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”
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Be explicit about trade-offs
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Write Architecture Decision Records
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Outcome bias Confirmation Bias Zero Risk Bias Availability Heuristic Self-serving bias More
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“You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?
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“You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean? Do I really want to?
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“I’m not sure” Asking questions Changing my mind
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“Using uncertainty to our advantage” - Annie Duke
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How confident are you about your confidence?
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Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410
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