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Unreasonable Estimates and Improbable Goals Adam Sanderson 1

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Adam Sanderson I have been a full stack developer at LiquidPlanner for about 6 years. Github: adamsanderson Twitter: adamsanderson Speaker Deck: adamsanderson Blog: http://monkeyandcrow.com 2

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Online project management software: Probabilistic scheduling Collaboration Time tracking By watching this talk, you're obviously brilliant, so come work with me, heck yes! 3

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Estimating Projects Finding Hidden Costs Dealing with Deadlines 4

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How hard would it be? Estimating Projects 5

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Clarify How hard would it be to add email integration to our product? Does that mean: Sending mail Receiving mail A Plugin for Outlook “ 6

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Clarify Can you upload each image in the email? Make sure you understand why you are implementing the feature. Does a solution already exist? Is there a better approach? “ 7

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Estimating What are the major pieces of work you need to do? Break down large tasks Group small, but similar details Compare to similar work you have done 8

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Make a Guess

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Seriously An estimate is an informed guess. It's ok to be wrong. It's ok to be uncertain. 10

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Quantify Uncertainty Embrace uncertainty, you clearly don't know the future * Identify uncertain issues Play a spread * If you did, you wouldn't be here right now. 11

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Deal With Uncertainty You can and should change your estimates. Do the uncertain things first Re-estimate as you learn Communicate often 12

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Defense Against the Dark Arts Estimation Bargaining 13

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PM: So how long will it take? You: About three weeks. PM: We need this quick, could you do it in one? You: Well, maybe two weeks. Estimation Bargaining “ 14

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Estimation Bargaining It's natural for people to haggle, but nobody wins in estimation bargaining. You can't negotiate time You can negotiate features You can re-estimate as you learn The assumption is that you are either lazy or lying. 15

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You can, but should you? Hidden Costs 16

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Complexity Costs Some features incur a cost for every future feature. API Support Access Controls Mobile Support Watch for cross cutting concerns 17

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Operational Costs Are you introducing new architecture? How will you test it? How will you monitor it? How will you deploy it? 18

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Support Costs Features can be technically simple, but conceptually difficult. Will your users understand it? Will your support team understand it? Will your business understand it? 19

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Opportunity Costs What is the priority of this work? For you For your team For the business 20

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Weigh the Costs Everything you do will cost something down the road. Choose which costs you are willing to pay. 21

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Defense Against the Dark Arts Ego Manipulation 22

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PM: How long will it take? You: About a week. PM: Really? I thought you were smarter than that... PM: I'll ask the intern, she seems pretty sharp. You: On second thought, it's probably not that hard. Ego Manipulation “ 23

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Ego Manipulation Don't let your ego get you in trouble. Stand by your estimates. 24

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I’ll need that on Monday Dealing With Deadlines 25

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Deadlines Not all deadlines are created equal. They come on a spectrum. Soft deadlines: Goals Hard deadlines: Promises 26

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Dealing With It When you are going to miss a deadline, you have options: Ship late Cut features Add People Work Overtime 27

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Overtime Overtime can work, but it's not sustainable. You have: 8 hours to work 8 hours to sleep 8 hours to commute, clean up after the dog, make dinner, do dishes, vacuum, read a book, watch tv, go for a run, take a shower, buy me coffee, and spend time with friends and family. 28

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Defense Against the Dark Arts Deadline Hardening 29

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PM: Lets try to release at the end of the month. You: I don't think we can make that, but I'll try. …cue spinning clock… PM: We need to release at the end of the month! You: There's no way we'll be ready! PM: Look we've got customers waiting on this. Deadline Hardening “ 30

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Deadline Hardening Don't commit to making any deadline you can't meet. People are less likely to turn a goal into a deadline if it's risky. Communicate status and risk often. 31

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Any Questions? Thinking of good questions is hard, I've thought of some for you: If estimates are just guesses, why even bother? Is there some magic product that solves all these problems? Do you have any more Dark Arts to share? Can I buy you coffee? Don't ask scary questions if you don't want scary answers. 32

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BONUS

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Defense Against the Dark Arts All the other ways we get suckered into absurd situations 34

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The Secret Project How would you like to work on a special project this weekend? “ 35

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The Secret Project This is a great way for the business to get extra features without cutting anything. Will this be meaningful to you? Is this a precedent you want to set? Does this fit with development best practices? It's your time, if you want to work, that's your call. 36

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Estimate Pride I said a day, and damnit I'll do it in a day if it takes me all night. “ 37

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Estimate Pride An estimate is just a guess. It's perfectly alright to change an estimate when you learn more about the issue. Just remember to tell anyone who is depending on that estimate! 38

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Certainizing One to five days? Ok, lets just call it three. “ 39

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Certainizing You might think you are agreeing to the expected outcome, but you actually just cut your estimate. 40

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“Optimizing” One to five days? You're smart, lets just call it one. “ 41

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“Optimizing” Ingredients: One part Ego Manipulation One part Certanizing One part Optimism Mix thoroughly, serve hot. 42

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Time Boxing Don't spend more than 2 hours on that. “ 43

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Time Boxing Putting a limit on very uncertain tasks is OK, but: Be clear about what happens if you stop early If you reach the limit, wrap up and let people know Wrapping up and communicating takes time too. 44

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You: We really need to do this, it will only take a week. PM: A week? There are a dozen things I'd rather do in a week. You: Ok, what about 3 days? PM: Sold! The Price Tag 45

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The Price Tag If someone knows you want to do work, they might make you bargain for the privilege. Sell them on the value, not the time. 46

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Call in the Cavalry I think this project could use some outside help... “ 47

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Call in the Cavalry Contractors can help on some projects, but remember: You'll be the one maintaining it later They'll need time to get up to speed There will be coordination costs 48

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Even More Dark Arts? Let me know @ a d a m s a n d e r s o n 49