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The Future of Automobiles: How Does Ethanol Fit In?

The Future of Automobiles: How Does Ethanol Fit In?

Stefan Unnasch
Life Cycle Associates

Transcript

  1. The Future of Automobiles: How Does Ethanol Fit In? Stefan

    Unnasch – Life Cycle Associates Steffen Mueller, PhD – University of Illinois, Chicago February 16, 2021
  2. Life Cycle Associates Copyright 2021 © Life Cycle Associates, LLC

    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Blending component to E10 to E85 • Market share tied to liquid fuel sales • Source of high octane blending component • Source of low GHG fuels Ethanol’s Effect on Automotive Fuels Summary 2
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Corn ethanol represents most of the renewable fuel sold the U.S. Renewable Fuel Volumes RFS 3
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • GHG reductions have exceeded expectations. Reductions from Renewable Fuels 4 RFS
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Low electrification scenario Future Automotive Fuels Introduction 5 Source: VISION Model
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • High electrification scenario Future Automotive Fuels Introduction 6
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates Petroleum, EV, and Ethanol Vehicles Future Fuels 7 • EVs have zero direct emissions • Ethanol and Biodiesel are biogenic fuels using short-cycle carbon • Emission comparisons need to be made on a life cycle basis • Wide range of resource mixes and vehicle efficiency parameters affects comparison • We compared: Gasoline EV Electric Vehicle with different utility mixes: electric grid region for Midwest (SRMW) and California grid region E15 (15% corn ethanol) E25 HOF (high octane fuel with 25% corn ethanol) E30 HOF Future Gasoline Engine (2020 CRC Study) E85 (85% corn ethanol) E85 PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles)
  8. Life Cycle Associates Copyright 2021 © Life Cycle Associates, LLC

    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Higher Octane • Hybridization • Electric Drive • Regenerative Braking • Space Heating Vehicle Fuel Efficiency 8 Future Fuels “The Autonomie modeling resulted in the high-octane 102-RON fuels consistently providing the lowest energy consumption values for the advanced engine on all four test cycles, the UDDS, Highway Fuel Economy Test and the city and highway portions of the US06. A 25% reduction in fuel consumption is projected to be achievable with the advanced engine and fuel L, a 102-RON 30% ethanol fuel, in mixed driving. “
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates eGRID Regions Future Fuels 9 • Example: SRMW Grid covers large regions of Missouri, Illinois, and Southern Iowa
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Peak Loads • Duck curve • Storage • Smart charging • Permanent, sustainable load growth Challenges and Solutions 10 Future Fuels CA ISO Duck Curve
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    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Efficiency • Carbon intensity • Large Variations • HOF cleaner than EVs in the Midwest GHG Emissions: Gasoline, Electricity, Ethanol 11 Future Fuels
  12. Life Cycle Associates Copyright 2021 © Life Cycle Associates, LLC

    All Rights Reserved Life Cycle Associates • Ethanol technologies will continue to reduce GHG emissions o Biogas, corn fiber, renewable power, CO2 capture • Electric drive provides substantial improvements in vehicle efficiency o Battery only or plug in hybrid o E85 PHEV can maintain ethanol market share with improvement in efficiency and GHG emissions o PHEV operation expands all electric capability ➢ Lower battery cost ➢ Efficient space heating ➢ Resilient to grid disruptions ➢ Accessible to multi family dwellings Conclusions Conclusions 12