SemiWEEK: Advanced Node Wafer Fab Utilization

SemiWEEK: Advanced Node Wafer Fab Utilization

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Semiconductor sales are forming a W as June’s normal peak is weak due to the transition to phase 2 of the WAHE and US imposed restrictions on shipping to Huawei. The 2Q20 Nowcast slipped again as the market zeros in on the quarter’s close. Still, it's predicting an annual gain of 14%.

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VLSIresearch

June 30, 2020
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Chip Market Research Services It’s been a warm spring, but a blanket of caution and uncertainty clouds visibility • There was no discernable change to the overall order activity for semiconductor equipment • IC Inventory Levels Semiconductor Analytics Semi Market results from last week: Semiconductor sales are forming a W as June’s normal peak is weak Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 2Q20 slid to +14% – Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Temperate – IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Balanced – Electronics Price Trend: Rolling Over Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 WAHE Sputters: Jun 5 Customer Satisfaction Survey White Paper: Plasma-Therm five-star etch & clean supplier Chip History Center SEMICON Conceived: Next year will mark the 50th Anniversary of SEMI. Making Silicon Commercially Manufacturable: Without silicon, there wouldn’t be chips. The Chip Insider Strategy and Tactics: Advanced Node Wafer Fab Utilization Semiconductor Stocks • VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Indices slipped • Semiconductor Stock Index slipped 0.3% despite claiming four of the top six stocks • Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index fell 1.6% with TEL coming out on top • EDA Stock Index jumped another 2.7% • Electronics Materials Stock Index slipped 0.1%, Tokyo Ohka was the top performer • Hottest Stocks: SMIC, MaxLinear, JCET, Tokyo Ohka, MediaTek, and TEL Semiconductor WEEK: June 26, 2020 An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. five-star etch & clean supplier VLSIresearch Customer Satisfaction Survey 2020 Click for White Paper
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Plasma-Therm ranks as the world’s 10 BEST Chip Making Supplier 3 • Plasma-Therm achieves RANKED 1st in – 10 BEST Focused Suppliers of Chip Making Equipment – Etch & Clean Equipment • Customers award Plasma-Therm with 5 VLSI Stars in 10 BEST Focused Suppliers of Chip Making Equipment for a third year • Takes highest rating in commitment, field engineering support, spares support, support after sales, overall value, and software of all 10 BEST Focused Suppliers of Chip Making Equipment • Global supplier of plasma etch and deposition technologies for diverse materials to serve advanced packaging and nano-technology markets Click for White Paper
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. How Customers Perceive Plasma-Therm • Plasma-Therm earns a 9.0 and above in 11 rating categories • Achieves highest rating of all THE BEST Fab Equipment and THE BEST WFE to Specialty Chip Makers in Spares Support • Increases Spares Support by 20 basis points to an incredible 9.5 • Highest scores* – spares support – field engineering support – overall value – recommend supplier – trust in supplier – partnering – support after sales *Listed in order of rating 4 Click for White Paper
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File June 2020 It’s been a warm spring, but a blanket of caution and uncertainty clouds visibility This issue contains the latest forecast. Call us to access more details • There was no discernable change to the overall order activity for semiconductor equipment as increases in Memory and Subcon/Adv Packaging were offset by declines in SOC Mobile and SOC Computing • Memory activity hit another high for the year and it’s finally in positive territory • Pricing trends in Memory have been on the mend, which should help support higher spending in 2H20 • There were minor changes made to the 2020 forecasts in June • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) bounced back
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. The Chip Insider® Graphics IC Inventory Levels: – Inventory to Billings ratio is trending higher IC Inventory Levels: chart gives rolling averages for semiconductor integrated circuit inventories held at OEMs, in Die Banks, and the total Inventory-to-Billing Ratio
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. VLSI's Current Forecast Forecast as of June 2020: 2019 2020 2021 Semi Equipment ($B): 77.0 $ 82.7 $ 88.1 $ Sequential Change -8.0% 7.3% 6.5% Capacity Utilization: 84.6% 89.6% 92.5% ICs ($B): 352.3 $ 359.2 $ 408.6 $ Sequential Change -13.4% 2.0% 13.8% IC Units (BU): 299.4 301.2 334.4 Sequential Change -6.0% 0.6% 11.0% Electronics ($B) : 2,122 $ 2,020 $ 2,208 $ Sequential Change -2.0% -4.8% 9.3% Severe COVID-19 impact in 2H20, recovery 2021 Forecast as of June 2020: 2019 2020 2021 Semi Equipment ($B): 77.0 $ 71.2 $ 88.1 $ Sequential Change -8.0% -7.6% 23.8% ICs ($B): 352.3 $ 334.9 $ 408.6 $ Sequential Change -13.4% -4.9% 22.0% IC Units (BU): 299.4 281.1 334.4 Sequential Change -6.0% -6.1% 18.9% Electronics ($B) : 2,122 $ 1,885 $ 2,208 $ Sequential Change -2.0% -11.2% 17.1%
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Semiconductor Analytics Last Week in the Semiconductor Market: Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 WAHE Sputters: Jun 5 W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year 1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power Thank you for supporting us through this last issue of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return January . Semiconductor sales are forming a W as June’s normal peak is weak due to the transition to phase 2 of the WAHE and US imposed restrictions on shipping to Huawei. The 2Q20 Nowcast slipped again as the market zeros in on the quarter’s close. Still, it's predicting an annual gain of 14%. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 2Q20 slid to +14% Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 72˚ F Temperate IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Balanced Foundry and Analog & Power turn down Electronics Pricing Trend: Rolling Over
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. 2020 Semiconductor Market Drivers Integrated Circuit sales are weakening with the end of phase 1 of the WAHE: • Certainties: – Coronavirus Pandemic infected economies – Governments defibrillating economy with cash – World’s Economy saved by Semiconductors • WAHE (Work-At-Home Economy) • WAHE to have 3 Phases – 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps • Uncertainties: – U.S.-China Trade War – 2020 Elections in U.S.
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. The Chip Insider® Strategy & Tactics Strategy and Tactics: Advanced Node Wafer Fab Utilization Summaries: Advanced Node Wafer Fab Utilization: Over the years, VLSI has been asked time and again if we could get at fab utilization by device class for advanced nodes. I’ve tried and failed to do it almost as many times. It’s so wanted and difficult to do that Risto calls it, “The Holy Grail.” The problem hasn’t been in coming up with theoretical algorithms. The problem has been in having enough of the right data series to triangulate on the numbers. Anyway, I think I have finally cracked it with much help from Andrea and his team. So, I present this experimental data series… The results are pretty much as expected, with some important surprises. What’s Happening and What’s the Meaning: ASML ranked 25th in list of market cap increases since COVID-19 struck. Important ChipChirps™ Facts from the Far Side: The money supply continues to explode. YMTC catching up. Oppo going hypervertical… ChipChirps™ are short notifications from VLSI’s analysts to alert clients about breaking news and events. They are exclusively available on VLSI’s App for Android and iOS. “What you do in life echoes in eternity” — From the Movie “The Gladiator” Contact us to get the full report and more
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. semiStockWEEK: VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices slipped this week with the exception of EDA stocks hitting a new yearly high. Semiconductors -0%, Equipment -2%, EDA +3%, Electronic Materials -0%.
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Semiconductor Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index slipped 0.3% despite claiming four of the top six stocks. IDM -2.9% Foundry & OSAT +4.9% Fabless & Fablite -1.4% AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI AmkorAMKR ASE ASX Broadcom AVGO IBM IBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC JCET600584.SS Kingpak Technology6238.TWO Micron Technology MU On Semiconductor ON Panasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MX Maxim MXIM MaxLinear MXL MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDA Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI STMicroelectronics STM Texas Instruments TXN TSMC TSM UMC UMC Western Digital WDC Xilinx XLNX Weekly Gains 6/26/2020 Semiconductor Stocks Price Change Forward P/E Semiconductor Stocks Price Change Forward P/E IDM Fab-lite to Fabless Intel -3.6% 12 AMD -7.6% 33 Micron -4.6% 10 Analog Devices -1.9% 23 ON Semiconductor -1.5% 15 Broadcom 1.5% 13 Samsung Electronics 0.8% – IBM -4.3% 9 SK hynix -0.9% Infineon 1.9% 20 STMicroelectronics -2.5% 21 MagnaChip Semiconductor -8.4% 13 Western Digital -7.9% 7 Maxim -2.1% 27 Foundry & OSAT MaxLinear 9.3% 29 Amkor -0.2% 15 MediaTek 6.2% – ASE -0.7% 11 NVIDIA -1.1% 37 JCET 8.8% 97 Panasonic -3.7% 11 Kingpak Technology 0.0% – Qualcomm -0.9% 15 SMIC 24.9% 2860 Silicon Laboratories -3.8% 29 TSMC 1.9% 19 Skyworks -1.2% 19 UMC -0.4% 13 Texas Instruments -1.2% 25 Xilinx -4.7% 27
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Chip Equipment & Related Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index fell 1.6% with TEL coming out on top. WFE -1.3% Test -2.5% Assembly -3.6% Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK FormFactor FORM KLA KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX Onto Innovation ONTO Nikon 7731 Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035 Veeco VECO Weekly Gains 0 6/26/2020 Equipment Stocks Price Change Forward P/E Equipment Stocks Price Change Forward P/E Wafer Process: Test: Applied Materials -4.2% 14 Advantest 1.2% – ASM International 5.3% 20 Teradyne -1.1% 23 ASML 0.3% 32 FormFactor -7.7% 22 KLA -1.8% 19 Lam Research -4.0% 17 Assembly: Onto Innovation -2.8% – BESI 3.7% – Nikon -4.9% – Kulicke & Soffa -12.0% 12 TEL 6.1% – ASM Pacific Technology -2.6% Veeco Instruments -5.3% 13
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Electronic Materials Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s EDA Stock Index jumped another 2.7% to a fresh new yearly high. VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index slipped 0.1%, Tokyo Ohka was the top performer. BASF BASFY Cabot Microelectronics CCMP Cadence CNDS DNP 7912 DuPont DD JSR 4185 Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Tokyo Ohka 4186 Weekly Gains 6/26/2020 EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks Price Change Forward P/E EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks Price Change Forward P/E EDA DNP 0.1% – Cadence 2.1% 35 DuPont de Nemours -2.3% 3 Synopsys 3.2% 32 JSR 1.4% – Electronic Materials Shin-Etsu 0.6% – BASF -3.2% 2 SOITEC 2.6% – Cabot Microelectronics -7.7% 19 Tokyo Ohka 7.5% –
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    VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright ©

    2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks 22-Nov-19 90.0 92.0 98.7 95.9 -2.2% -5.1% -2.8% -1.8% 7 5.7% -44 -17.7% 23.4% 96.0 -0.3% 29-Nov-19 90.9 93.7 96.7 100.1 1.0% 1.8% -2.0% 4.4% 37 5.0% -14 -15.0% 20.0% 96.9 1.0% 06-Dec-19 92.6 94.7 95.5 95.5 1.8% 1.1% -1.2% -4.6% 33 8.2% -19 -4.8% 13.0% 97.1 0.2% 13-Dec-19 96.7 98.0 100.0 96.9 4.5% 3.5% 4.7% 1.5% 48 10.7% -3 -1.4% 12.1% 97.8 0.7% 20-Dec-19 99.2 99.9 100.1 99.6 2.6% 1.9% 0.1% 2.7% 39 12.5% -13 -8.4% 20.9% 99.4 1.7% 27-Dec-19 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.8% 0.1% -0.1% 0.4% 29 5.9% -23 2.7% 8.6% 100.0 0.6% 03-Jan-20 100.3 100.2 98.9 100.5 0.3% 0.2% -1.1% 0.5% 23 9.5% -24 -3.4% 12.9% 99.8 -0.2% 10-Jan-20 101.5 100.9 99.2 104.7 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4.2% 32 7.2% -22 -4.8% 12.0% 100.8 0.9% 17-Jan-20 104.7 104.8 101.0 106.4 3.2% 3.9% 1.8% 1.7% 45 19.1% -10 -3.8% 22.9% 102.8 2.0% 24-Jan-20 106.1 105.1 100.5 107.8 1.3% 0.3% -0.5% 1.3% 29 14.9% -25 -10.8% 25.7% 101.7 -1.0% 31-Jan-20 98.4 98.4 96.0 103.8 -7.3% -6.3% -4.5% -3.8% 3 2.2% -51 -17.7% 19.9% 99.5 -2.1% 07-Feb-20 102.5 101.3 100.4 107.2 4.2% 2.9% 4.6% 3.3% 45 21.4% -10 -11.7% 33.1% 102.7 3.2% 14-Feb-20 106.5 106.6 101.0 114.2 3.9% 5.3% 0.6% 6.5% 47 27.5% -8 -10.0% 37.5% 104.3 1.6% 21-Feb-20 103.7 99.3 98.1 106.4 -2.6% -6.9% -2.8% -6.9% 6 4.5% -49 -17.1% 21.6% 103.0 -1.3% 28-Feb-20 93.1 90.4 85.5 96.2 -10.2% -8.9% -12.9% -9.5% 0 -0.8% -55 -21.3% 20.5% 91.2 -11.5% 06-Mar-20 91.8 91.0 84.8 95.1 -1.5% 0.6% -0.7% -1.2% 18 7.9% -35 -11.0% 18.9% 91.7 0.6% 13-Mar-20 81.1 78.3 71.0 90.7 -11.6% -13.9% -16.3% -4.6% 0 -2.1% -55 -26.6% 24.5% 83.7 -8.8% 20-Mar-20 69.6 65.2 67.0 78.4 -14.2% -16.7% -5.7% -13.6% 3 15.3% -52 -28.9% 44.2% 71.1 -15.0% 27-Mar-20 78.3 78.7 76.6 88.7 12.6% 20.6% 14.4% 13.1% 52 36.1% -3 -11.7% 47.8% 78.4 10.3% 03-Apr-20 77.1 73.4 72.6 89.9 -1.6% -6.7% -5.3% 1.4% 14 17.4% -41 -15.1% 32.5% 76.8 -2.1% 10-Apr-20 85.6 84.0 82.6 99.7 11.1% 14.5% 13.8% 10.9% 54 38.2% -1 -2.3% 40.5% 86.1 12.1% 17-Apr-20 89.1 88.4 82.7 111.3 4.0% 5.2% 0.2% 11.7% 41 17.0% -10 -6.1% 23.1% 88.7 3.0% 24-Apr-20 88.7 86.1 82.5 111.9 -0.4% -2.6% -0.2% 0.6% 17 9.2% -37 -9.8% 19.0% 87.6 -1.3% 01-May-20 89.1 83.9 85.0 107.5 0.5% -2.6% 3.1% -4.0% 27 19.1% -28 -11.9% 31.0% 87.4 -0.2% 08-May-20 94.8 91.9 88.4 115.9 6.4% 9.6% 3.9% 7.8% 52 31.0% -3 -2.4% 33.4% 90.4 3.5% 15-May-20 91.4 87.1 86.8 115.1 -3.6% -5.3% -1.8% -0.7% 10 16.8% -45 -21.1% 37.9% 88.4 -2.3% 22-May-20 95.1 89.8 89.7 122.3 4.0% 3.1% 3.3% 6.3% 42 13.5% -12 -11.7% 25.2% 91.2 3.2% 29-May-20 97.4 91.0 94.9 129.5 2.4% 1.4% 5.8% 5.9% 43 14.6% -12 -3.2% 17.8% 94.0 3.0% 05-Jun-20 106.2 101.6 100.1 130.3 9.0% 11.6% 5.5% 0.6% 50 22.6% -4 -3.6% 26.2% 98.6 4.9% 12-Jun-20 100.7 96.7 95.7 127.8 -5.2% -4.8% -4.4% -2.0% 6 1.4% -47 -13.3% 14.7% 93.9 -4.8% 19-Jun-20 103.3 101.8 96.2 131.2 2.6% 5.3% 0.5% 2.7% 46 18.2% -8 -5.1% 23.3% 95.6 1.9% 26-Jun-20 103.0 100.2 96.1 134.7 -0.3% -1.6% -0.1% 2.7% 20 24.9% -34 -12.0% 36.9% 92.9 -2.9% S&P 500 Growth VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks Weekly Growth The Prior Week's Close S&P 500 Max Growth Companies Up Companies Down Range of Growth Min Growth