AB テストの落とし穴 / "Pitfalls" of AB test
by
Kohei Arai
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AB ςετͷམͱ݀͠ ΫοΫύουגࣜձࣾ ΤϯδχΞ ৽Ҫ߁ฏ
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ࣗݾհ • ৽Ҫ ߁ฏ (Twitter: SpicyCoffee66) • ΫοΫύουגࣜձࣾ • αʔόʔαΠυΤϯδχΞ • ԾઆཱͯͨΓܭଌͨ͠Γ SQL ୟ͍ͨΓ͢Δ
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ʢԾઆݕূʹ͖ͭͷͷʣ AB ςετͷΛ͠·͢
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Α͋͘ΔԾઆݕূ idea product data ԾઆΛ͔֬ΊΔͨΊͷ ϓϩμΫτΛ࡞Δ ϓϩμΫτͷ ར༻ঢ়گΛσʔλʹ σʔλΛͱʹ ৽ͨͳԾઆΛཱͯΔ Build Measure Learn
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Ծઆݕূͱ AB ςετ • ཱͯͨԾઆΛݕূ͢ΔͨΊͷखஈͷҰͭ • Ծઆͷ࣮ΛϢʔβʔ͞Μʹͯͯ݁ՌΛݟΔ idea product data ͜͜ͷख๏ Build Measure Learn
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ΈΜͳେ͖ AB ςετ
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ͷ མͱ݀͠
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Case 1
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Case1: AB Λྻʹͭͳ͙ "#ςετΛΓ͍͕ͨ ύΠ͕গͳͯ͘ݕূظ͕ؒ͘ͳΓͦ͏ શମʹެ։ͯ͠ ϦϦʔεલޙͷࣈΛൺ·͠ΐ͏
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Case1: AB Λྻʹͭͳ͙ ϦϦʔε ࣈ৳ͼ͍ͯΔ͠Ծઆ͕ਖ਼͔ͬͨ͠ʂ
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Case1: AB Λྻʹͭͳ͙ ϦϦʔε ࣈ৳ͼ͍ͯΔ͠Ծઆ͕ਖ਼͔ͬͨ͠ʂ
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Case1: AB Λྻʹͭͳ͙ - ͳͥμϝ͔ • ϢʔβʔͷαʔϏεར༻ʹ पظ࣌ظཁҼ ͕͋Δ • ʹΞΫηε͕૿͑Δ • ݄ʹୀձऀ͕૿͑Δ • όϨϯλΠϯͷΞΫηε͕ҟৗ • ࣈͷมԽ͕͜ΕΒͷཁҼʹΑΔͷͷՄೳੑ͕͋Δ
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Case1: AB Λྻʹͭͳ͙ - Ͳ͏͢Δ͖͔ • ֎తཁҼΛᘳʹѲ͢ΔͷෆՄೳ • جຊతʹ࣌ؒΛ͔͚ͯύΠΛ֬อͨ͠ํ͕Α͍ • ͕࣌ؒ੯͍͠ঢ়گͳΒ AB ςετΛ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δ͔Λߟ͑Δ • ଞʹԾઆݕূͷํ๏͋Δ
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Case 2
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Case2: ཁૉͷղ͕ෆे τοϓϖʔδʹݕࡧཤྺ͔Βͷ͓͢͢ΊΛ දࣔ͢ΔΧϧʔηϧΛஔ͍ͯΈ·͠ΐ͏ ൺֱͯ͠ࣈ͕͍͍͠ ݕࡧཤྺ͔Βͷ͓͢͢Ί Ձ͕͋Δʂ
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Case2: ཁૉͷղ͕ෆे τοϓϖʔδʹݕࡧཤྺ͔Βͷ͓͢͢ΊΛ දࣔ͢ΔΧϧʔηϧΛஔ͍ͯΈ·͠ΐ͏ ൺֱͯ͠ࣈ͕͍͍͠ ݕࡧཤྺ͔Βͷ͓͢͢Ί Ձ͕͋Δʂ
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Case2: ཁૉͷղ͕ෆे - ͳͥμϝ͔ • Ϣʔβʔ͕ड͚औΔՁେࡶʹ ػೳ ͱ ݟͤํ ʹ͔ΕΔ τοϓϖʔδʹݕࡧཤྺ͔Βͷ͓͢͢ΊΛ දࣔ͢ΔΧϧʔηϧΛஔ͍ͯΈ·͠ΐ͏ Ձ → ػೳ x ݟͤํ • ࣈΛେ͖͘ಈ͔ͨ͠ͷͲͪΒͷཁૉʁ
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Case2: ཁૉͷղ͕ෆे - Ͳ͏͢Δ͖͔ • ҰํͷཁૉΛݻఆ ͠ɺ͏ҰํͷཁૉΛෳ༻ҙͯ͠ݕূ͢Δ • ʮݕࡧཤྺ͔Βͷ͓͢͢ΊʯΛෳͷݟͤํͰݟͤΔ AB • τοϓϖʔδʹผͷػೳΛ࣋ͭΛ༻ҙͯ͠ AB
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Case2: ཁૉͷղ͕ෆे - ݱ࣮తʹ • ยํͷཁૉΛ ࣄલࣝۃͳ࣮ Ͱݻఆ͢Δ • Ϣʔβʔௐ͔ࠪΒधཁ͕໌֬ → ػೳݻఆͰݟͤํΛݕূ • ଟগϊΠδʔͳݟͤํͰ࣮͢Δ → ݟͤํݻఆͰػೳΛݕূ • ػೳ x ݟͤํ͕ηοτʹͳ͍ͬͯΔΑ͏ͳࢪࡦ·ͱΊͯߟ͑Δ • UI ͷվળࢪࡦͳͲ
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Case 3
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Case3: ͦͦෆ͖ Ϣʔβʔͷश׳ԽΛ֬ೝ͢ΔͨΊʹ"#Λ͍ͯ͠Δ͕ ݕূظ͕ؒ͘ͳΔͷͰޮ͕ѱ͍ʜʜ αʔϏεΛ্ཱ͔ͪ͛ͨΓͰύΠ͕औΕͳ͍ͷͰ ظؒͰ"#ςετ͕ճͤͳ͍ʜʜ
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Case3: ͦͦෆ͖ Ϣʔβʔͷश׳ԽΛ֬ೝ͢ΔͨΊʹ"#Λ͍ͯ͠Δ͕ ݕূظ͕ؒ͘ͳΔͷͰޮ͕ѱ͍ʜʜ αʔϏεΛ্ཱ͔ͪ͛ͨΓͰύΠ͕औΕͳ͍ͷͰ ظؒͰ"#ςετ͕ճͤͳ͍ʜʜ
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Case3: ͦͦෆ͖ - ͳͥμϝ͔ • AB ςετʹ͖ෆ͖͕͋Δ ͍ͯΔ ͍ͯͳ͍ ύΠ͕ेʹऔΕΔ ֬ೝ͍ͨ͠ૢ࡞͕γϯϓϧ ظؒͰܭଌͰ͖Δࢦඪ ύΠͷ֬อ͕ࠔ ֬ೝ͍ͨ͠ૢ࡞͕ෳࡶ ظؒͷܭଌΛલఏͱ͢Δࢦඪ
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Case3: ͦͦෆ͖ - Ͳ͏͢Δ͖͔ • ϓϩδΣΫτʹΑͬͯղܾ๏ҧ͏͕…… • τοϓμϯͰʮΔʯͱܾΊΔ • ࠜڌͱͳΔใͷҰ෦Λ AB ςετͰूΊΔ͜ͱͰ͖Δ ʢ”ࢪࡦ” Ͱͳ͘ “Ծઆ” Λݕূ͢Δʣ • ूΊͨใΛཧ্ͯ͠ʹ૬ஊɾผϓϩδΣΫτʹ͢Δ
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Case3: ͦͦෆ͖ - Ͳ͏͢Δ͖͔ • AB ςετʹͩ͜ΘΒͳ͍ • ݕূํ๏͍Ζ͍Ζ͋ΔʢΠϯλϏϡʔ, Ξϯέʔτ, etc…ʣ • ଞͷݕূํ๏ͱ߹Θٕͤͱ͍͏ख͋Δ ԾઆཱҊ ϓϩτ࣮ Ϣʔβʔςετ ظ AB ςετ 2~3 days 1 week 1 month~ ͜͜ͰؒҾ͘
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·ͱΊ
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·ͱΊ • AB ςετۜͷؙͰͳ͍ • ރΕͨख๏͔ͩΒͦ͜ࡶʹΔͱ্ख͍͔͘ͳ͍ • ͕ࣗࠓԿΛݕূ͍ͯ͠Δͷ͔Λৗʹ͍ଓ͚Δ͜ͱ • ࣌ʹ AB ςετΛ͠ͳ͍ͱ͍͏બࢶॏཁ