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The effects of LED light bulb
installation on electricity
demand in UK households
Results of a large-n randomised control trial
11th March 2021
Ben Anderson
@dataknut
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The Menu
• The problem
– Peak electricity demand
• The solution
– Reducing & shifting demand
• Seeing the light
– Large n LED light bulb trial
• Did it work?
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Despite this…
• UK Generation
– 2009 – 2019
• The peak is still
– Peaky
– Expensive
– Carbon intense
• What to do?
– Reduce it
– Shift it
Data source: https://data.nationalgrideso.com/carbon-intensity1/historic-generation-mix/r/historic_gb_generation_mix
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Can LED lights help?
• South East England
– Stratified random sample
– N ~= 4000 households (representative)
– Randomly allocated to 4 trial groups (n ~
1,000)
LED trial was one of these
Hours of daylight
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Can LED lights help?
• South East England
– Stratified random sample
– N ~= 4000 households (representative)
– Randomly allocated to 4 trial groups (n ~ 1,000)
• Data
– http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/save-data-sources/
– W every 10 seconds
– Wh every 15 minutes
– Household surveys
LED trial was one of these
Monitoring Data cloud Analysts
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Implementation
• Install: Up to 10 LED bulbs for free
• 76% (882) agreed
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Where were they put?
l
Maximum theoretical total
installed saving = 155 kW across
group
l
Actual total installed = 124 kW Mean: 176W per household
60% already had 1 or more
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What happened?
• Mean Wh
• 16:00 – 20:00
We need a difference in difference model!
Hours of daylight
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What happened?
• Difference in
difference
model
• 16:00 – 20:00
only
• Lack of precision – see 90% confidence intervals
• Relatively small effect
• Big inter-household variation
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What happened (long term)?
• 16:00 – 20:00
• Difference in
difference
model
• Effect persisted to winter 2018
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Was it worth it?
• ‘Biggest’ week (mid-winter):
– Max peak-hours reduction: 47W (8%) in w/c 1
January 2018
– Median: -31W in peak per household
– Median: -3.9 kWh per household per week
– ~£0.70/week!
• Modelled 500 customer substation:
– ~24 kW peak load reduction (~ 3 EVs)
– ~90kWh annual per customer (£16.00)
• Sometimes cost effective
– https://save-project.co.uk/energy-efficiency/
176W installed
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YOUR QUESTIONS
[email protected]
@dataknut
https://save-project.co.uk/energy-efficiency/