Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

The effects of LED light bulb installation on electricity demand in UK households Results of a large-n randomised control trial

The effects of LED light bulb installation on electricity demand in UK households Results of a large-n randomised control trial

Anderson, Ben, Rushby, Tom, Bahaj, Abubakr and James, Patrick (2021) The effects of LED light bulb installation on electricity demand in UK households: results of a large n randomised control trial. Energy Evaluation Europe: 2021 Europe Conference: Accelerating the energy transition for all: Evaluation's role in effective policy making, Online. 10 - 16 Mar 2021.

Ben Anderson

March 11, 2021
Tweet

More Decks by Ben Anderson

Other Decks in Science

Transcript

  1. The effects of LED light bulb installation on electricity demand

    in UK households Results of a large-n randomised control trial 11th March 2021 Ben Anderson @dataknut
  2. 3 The Menu • The problem – Peak electricity demand

    • The solution – Reducing & shifting demand • Seeing the light – Large n LED light bulb trial • Did it work?
  3. 4 Despite this… • UK Generation – 2009 – 2019

    • The peak is still – Peaky – Expensive – Carbon intense • What to do? – Reduce it – Shift it Data source: https://data.nationalgrideso.com/carbon-intensity1/historic-generation-mix/r/historic_gb_generation_mix
  4. 5 Can LED lights help? • South East England –

    Stratified random sample – N ~= 4000 households (representative) – Randomly allocated to 4 trial groups (n ~ 1,000) LED trial was one of these Hours of daylight
  5. 6 Can LED lights help? • South East England –

    Stratified random sample – N ~= 4000 households (representative) – Randomly allocated to 4 trial groups (n ~ 1,000) • Data – http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/save-data-sources/ – W every 10 seconds – Wh every 15 minutes – Household surveys LED trial was one of these Monitoring Data cloud Analysts
  6. 8 Where were they put? l Maximum theoretical total installed

    saving = 155 kW across group l Actual total installed = 124 kW Mean: 176W per household 60% already had 1 or more
  7. 9 What happened? • Mean Wh • 16:00 – 20:00

    We need a difference in difference model! Hours of daylight
  8. 10 What happened? • Difference in difference model • 16:00

    – 20:00 only • Lack of precision – see 90% confidence intervals • Relatively small effect • Big inter-household variation
  9. 11 What happened (long term)? • 16:00 – 20:00 •

    Difference in difference model • Effect persisted to winter 2018
  10. 12 Was it worth it? • ‘Biggest’ week (mid-winter): –

    Max peak-hours reduction: 47W (8%) in w/c 1 January 2018 – Median: -31W in peak per household – Median: -3.9 kWh per household per week – ~£0.70/week! • Modelled 500 customer substation: – ~24 kW peak load reduction (~ 3 EVs) – ~90kWh annual per customer (£16.00) • Sometimes cost effective – https://save-project.co.uk/energy-efficiency/ 176W installed