阪神タイガース優勝のひみつ - Pythonでシュッと調べた件 / SABRmetrics for Python
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Shinichi Nakagawa
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ʮ͓ࢄาʯΛͨ݁͠Ռ ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͕༏উͨ݅͠. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উΛه೦ͯ͠PythonͰσʔλੳͨ͠Β ࢥΘͣʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘͯ͠͠·ͬͨ. Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke) 2023/10/01 PyLadies Tokyo 9पه೦ύʔςΟʔ
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Who am I ? ʢ͓લ୭Α?ʣ • Shinichi Nakagawa@shinyorke • େख֎ࢿܥITίϯαϧاۀϚωʔδϟʔ • ຊۀͰSREతͳࣄΛ͍ͯ͠·͢. • ΤϯδχΞతʹԿͰͰ͖Δਓ. • దͳ⽁ωλ͔ΒLTΛ͢ΔΤϯδχΞͷਓ. • ஶ໊ͳٕज़ϒϩάʮLean Baseballʯͷਓ. • ຖ10,000าఔͷʮ͓ࢄาʯ͕՝. ※͓ࢄาͷূڌ݅
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PyLadies Tokyo 9प͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉 ʢ9ܦͬͯ͠·ͬͨͷ͔…ͳ͍ͭʣ
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͏Ұ͓ͭΊͰ͍ͨࣄ͕ ͋Γ·͢ΑͶʁ🐯
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ࡕਆλΠΨʔε, ηɾϦʔά༏উ͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉 2005Ҏདྷ18ͿΓͷ༏উ🐯
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334 ʲ౾ࣝʳ͓ೃછΈͷͪ͜Βͷࣈ18લͷ༏উ͕ΩοΧέͰര.
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18ͿΓʹʮ༏উʯΛ Ϳ͔ͪ·ͨ͠ࡕਆλΠΨʔε ݁ہԿ͕ྑ͔ͬͨͷ͔🤔
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ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷཧ༝ʢͲΕਖ਼ղʣ 1. ໊কʮԬాজʯ௨শʮͲΜͰΜʯͷಜ෮ؼ. →18લͷ༏উԬాಜ&ʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘߦ໊͘ࡃ. 2. ࣆJAPAN͕༏উͨ͠WBCʹελϝϯڃͷબखΛग़͍ͯ͠ͳ͔ͬͨ. ࡕਆ͔Βதͱ౬ઙͷΈ͔ͭ͞΄Ͳग़ճଟ͘ͳ͍. 3. ʮ͓ࢄาେࣄʯʮ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʯͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑. ۩ମతʹʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯΛࢁબΜͩ.
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ʮʰ͓ࢄาେࣄʱʰ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʱͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑ʯ ͜Ε͕ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷͬͱΒ͍͠ཧ༝ͩͱσʔλݴͬͯ·ͨ͠.
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ࡕਆͷεʔύʔυϥΠͳʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ • όολʔࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞. • ϐονϟʔࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ. ͳ͓ٿʹ͓͚Δʮ͓ࢄาʯʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯͷࣄ. ※εϥϯάతʹʮࢄาʯͱಡΜͰ͍·͢ʢʮา͔ͤΔʯͱ͔ݴ͏ʣ.
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ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶃ όολʔࡾৼͯ͠ ͍͍͔Β ʮۃʹ͓ࢄาʯ ͠ͳ͍͞. ࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βา͚. 11
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ʮދଧઢʯվΊʮ”า”ଧઢʯ • 2023ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱ࢛ͯ͠ٿͷ͕ΊͪΌͪ͘Όଟ͍. • ηɾϦʔάͲ͜Ζ͔ϓϩٿશମͰΠέͯΔग़ྥͷߴ͞. • Ұํ, ࢛ٿΛऔΓʹߦ͘ͷʹͭͨΊࡾৼ૿͍͑ͯΔ.
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11ଧ੮ʹ1ճ͓ࢄา͢ΔࡕਆλΠΨʔε͞Μ༏लʢϦʔά1Ґʣ. ࠷ԼҐதυϥΰϯζΑΓ1.5ഒͷϖʔεͰʮ͓ࢄาʯΛྔ࢈.
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Ұํ, ࡾઢͷ۶ࢦͰ4.5ଧ੮ʹҰࡾৼ͍ͯ͠ΔʢϦʔάϫʔετʣ. ܭࢉ্ελϝϯͷશଧऀ͕ࢼ߹தʹ1ճࡾৼ͍ͯ͠Δࣄʹ.
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2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄา͢ΔॱʹฒͨϞϊ. ࡕਆૉΒ͍͠, Ұํʮྩͷถ૽ಈʯͷத͞Μ(ry
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ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶄ ϐονϟʔࡾৼΛ औΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘Β ʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ. ૬खͷଧऀΛྥʹग़͔͢Βͣ. 16
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૬खͷʮࢄาʯΛઈରʹࢭΊΔखਞ. • 2023ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱͯ͠खͷ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍. • ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍ = ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ͍ͤͯ͞ͳ͍. • ͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼऔΕ͓ͯΓ, ࡕਆखਞͷ༏ल͕͞Θ͔Δ.
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༏लͳࡕਆखਞ, ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ࠷༩͍͑ͯͳ͍ʢϦʔά1Ґʣ. ૬खଧऀʹແବͳ࢛ٿΛग़͞ͳ͍ͱ͍͏పఈͨ͠ํ.
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༏लͳࡕਆखਞ, ૬ख͔Βͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼΛୣ͏༷ʢϦʔά4Ґʣ. ࢛ٿ͕ݮΔͱ͍͏͜ͱࡾৼΛऔΕͳ͍ࣄʹܨ͕Δ͕ҧͬͯͨ…ੌ͍🐯
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2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄาͤ͞ͳ͍ॱʹฒͨϞϊ. ࡕਆ͕ૉΒ͍͕͠, DeNAͷʮࡾৼͨ͘͞ΜऔΔʯʮ࢛ٿগͳ͍ʯ͔͍͍ͬ͜.
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???ʮPythonͷ͕ແ͍͡Όͳ͍͔ʁ͍͍͔͛Μʹ͠Ζʯ
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ࠓͷσʔλ શ෦PythonͰ ͍͍ײ͡ʹ🐍 େͨ͠ίʔυ͡Όͳ͍ͷͰͥͻਅࣅͯͬͯ͠Έͯ. https://gist.github.com/Shinichi-Nakagawa/3ca01932532ba41ceaef94bd722107b9 NPBͷWebαΠτΛ εΫϨΠϐϯά Google ColabͰ γϡοͱՄࢹԽ.
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ʲ݁ʳࡕਆλΠΨʔεʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ • όολʔࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞. • ϐονϟʔࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ. • ͳ͓, ࢛ٿ͕૿͑Δͱࡾৼ૿͑ΔʢʣͳͷͰ(ry ͓Θ͔Γ͍͚ͨͩͨͩΖ͏͔?
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͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠🐯