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阪神タイガース優勝のひみつ - Pythonでシュッと調べた件 / SABRmetrics ...
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Shinichi Nakagawa
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October 01, 2023
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阪神タイガース優勝のひみつ - Pythonでシュッと調べた件 / SABRmetrics for Python
PyLadies Tokyo 9周年LT
Shinichi Nakagawa
PRO
October 01, 2023
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Transcript
ʮ͓ࢄาʯΛͨ݁͠Ռ ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͕༏উͨ݅͠. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উΛه೦ͯ͠PythonͰσʔλੳͨ͠Β ࢥΘͣʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘͯ͠͠·ͬͨ. Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke) 2023/10/01 PyLadies Tokyo
9पه೦ύʔςΟʔ
Who am I ? ʢ͓લ୭Α?ʣ • Shinichi Nakagawa@shinyorke • େख֎ࢿܥITίϯαϧاۀϚωʔδϟʔ
• ຊۀͰSREతͳࣄΛ͍ͯ͠·͢. • ΤϯδχΞతʹԿͰͰ͖Δਓ. • దͳ⽁ωλ͔ΒLTΛ͢ΔΤϯδχΞͷਓ. • ஶ໊ͳٕज़ϒϩάʮLean Baseballʯͷਓ. • ຖ10,000าఔͷʮ͓ࢄาʯ͕՝. ※͓ࢄาͷূڌ݅
PyLadies Tokyo 9प͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉 ʢ9ܦͬͯ͠·ͬͨͷ͔…ͳ͍ͭʣ
͏Ұ͓ͭΊͰ͍ͨࣄ͕ ͋Γ·͢ΑͶʁ🐯
ࡕਆλΠΨʔε, ηɾϦʔά༏উ͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉 2005Ҏདྷ18ͿΓͷ༏উ🐯
334 ʲ౾ࣝʳ͓ೃછΈͷͪ͜Βͷࣈ18લͷ༏উ͕ΩοΧέͰര.
18ͿΓʹʮ༏উʯΛ Ϳ͔ͪ·ͨ͠ࡕਆλΠΨʔε ݁ہԿ͕ྑ͔ͬͨͷ͔🤔
ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷཧ༝ʢͲΕਖ਼ղʣ 1. ໊কʮԬాজʯ௨শʮͲΜͰΜʯͷಜ෮ؼ. →18લͷ༏উԬాಜ&ʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘߦ໊͘ࡃ. 2. ࣆJAPAN͕༏উͨ͠WBCʹελϝϯڃͷબखΛग़͍ͯ͠ͳ͔ͬͨ. ࡕਆ͔Βதͱ౬ઙͷΈ͔ͭ͞΄Ͳग़ճଟ͘ͳ͍. 3.
ʮ͓ࢄาେࣄʯʮ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʯͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑. ۩ମతʹʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯΛࢁબΜͩ.
ʮʰ͓ࢄาେࣄʱʰ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʱͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑ʯ ͜Ε͕ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷͬͱΒ͍͠ཧ༝ͩͱσʔλݴͬͯ·ͨ͠.
ࡕਆͷεʔύʔυϥΠͳʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ • όολʔࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞. • ϐονϟʔࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ. ͳ͓ٿʹ͓͚Δʮ͓ࢄาʯʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯͷࣄ. ※εϥϯάతʹʮࢄาʯͱಡΜͰ͍·͢ʢʮา͔ͤΔʯͱ͔ݴ͏ʣ.
ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶃ όολʔࡾৼͯ͠ ͍͍͔Β ʮۃʹ͓ࢄาʯ ͠ͳ͍͞. ࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βา͚. 11
ʮދଧઢʯվΊʮ”า”ଧઢʯ • 2023ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱ࢛ͯ͠ٿͷ͕ΊͪΌͪ͘Όଟ͍. • ηɾϦʔάͲ͜Ζ͔ϓϩٿશମͰΠέͯΔग़ྥͷߴ͞. • Ұํ, ࢛ٿΛऔΓʹߦ͘ͷʹͭͨΊࡾৼ૿͍͑ͯΔ.
11ଧ੮ʹ1ճ͓ࢄา͢ΔࡕਆλΠΨʔε͞Μ༏लʢϦʔά1Ґʣ. ࠷ԼҐதυϥΰϯζΑΓ1.5ഒͷϖʔεͰʮ͓ࢄาʯΛྔ࢈.
Ұํ, ࡾઢͷ۶ࢦͰ4.5ଧ੮ʹҰࡾৼ͍ͯ͠ΔʢϦʔάϫʔετʣ. ܭࢉ্ελϝϯͷશଧऀ͕ࢼ߹தʹ1ճࡾৼ͍ͯ͠Δࣄʹ.
2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄา͢ΔॱʹฒͨϞϊ. ࡕਆૉΒ͍͠, Ұํʮྩͷถ૽ಈʯͷத͞Μ(ry
ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶄ ϐονϟʔࡾৼΛ औΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘Β ʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ. ૬खͷଧऀΛྥʹग़͔͢Βͣ. 16
૬खͷʮࢄาʯΛઈରʹࢭΊΔखਞ. • 2023ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱͯ͠खͷ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍. • ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍ = ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ͍ͤͯ͞ͳ͍. • ͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼऔΕ͓ͯΓ,
ࡕਆखਞͷ༏ल͕͞Θ͔Δ.
༏लͳࡕਆखਞ, ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ࠷༩͍͑ͯͳ͍ʢϦʔά1Ґʣ. ૬खଧऀʹແବͳ࢛ٿΛग़͞ͳ͍ͱ͍͏పఈͨ͠ํ.
༏लͳࡕਆखਞ, ૬ख͔Βͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼΛୣ͏༷ʢϦʔά4Ґʣ. ࢛ٿ͕ݮΔͱ͍͏͜ͱࡾৼΛऔΕͳ͍ࣄʹܨ͕Δ͕ҧͬͯͨ…ੌ͍🐯
2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄาͤ͞ͳ͍ॱʹฒͨϞϊ. ࡕਆ͕ૉΒ͍͕͠, DeNAͷʮࡾৼͨ͘͞ΜऔΔʯʮ࢛ٿগͳ͍ʯ͔͍͍ͬ͜.
???ʮPythonͷ͕ແ͍͡Όͳ͍͔ʁ͍͍͔͛Μʹ͠Ζʯ
ࠓͷσʔλ શ෦PythonͰ ͍͍ײ͡ʹ🐍 େͨ͠ίʔυ͡Όͳ͍ͷͰͥͻਅࣅͯͬͯ͠Έͯ. https://gist.github.com/Shinichi-Nakagawa/3ca01932532ba41ceaef94bd722107b9 NPBͷWebαΠτΛ εΫϨΠϐϯά Google ColabͰ γϡοͱՄࢹԽ.
ʲ݁ʳࡕਆλΠΨʔεʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ • όολʔࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞. • ϐονϟʔࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ. • ͳ͓, ࢛ٿ͕૿͑Δͱࡾৼ૿͑ΔʢʣͳͷͰ(ry ͓Θ͔Γ͍͚ͨͩͨͩΖ͏͔?
͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠🐯