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阪神タイガース優勝のひみつ - Pythonでシュッと調べた件 / SABRmetrics for Python

阪神タイガース優勝のひみつ - Pythonでシュッと調べた件 / SABRmetrics for Python

PyLadies Tokyo 9周年LT

Shinichi Nakagawa

October 01, 2023
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Transcript

  1. ʮ͓ࢄาʯΛͨ݁͠Ռ


    ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͕༏উͨ݅͠.
    ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উΛه೦ͯ͠PythonͰσʔλ෼ੳͨ͠Β

    ࢥΘͣʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘͯ͠͠·ͬͨ࿩.
    Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke) 2023/10/01 PyLadies Tokyo 9प೥ه೦ύʔςΟʔ

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  2. Who am I ?


    ʢ͓લ୭Α?ʣ
    • Shinichi Nakagawa@shinyorke


    • େख֎ࢿܥITίϯαϧاۀϚωʔδϟʔ


    • ຊۀͰ͸SREతͳ࢓ࣄΛ͍ͯ͠·͢.


    • ΤϯδχΞతʹ͸ԿͰ΋Ͱ͖Δਓ.


    • ద౰ͳ⽁ωλ͔ΒLTΛ͢ΔΤϯδχΞͷਓ.


    • ஶ໊ͳٕज़ϒϩάʮLean Baseballʯͷਓ.


    • ຖ೔10,000าఔ౓ͷʮ͓ࢄาʯ͕೔՝.
    ※͓ࢄาͷূڌ෺݅

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  3. PyLadies Tokyo 9प೥͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉


    ʢ9೥΋ܦͬͯ͠·ͬͨͷ͔…ͳ͍ͭʣ

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  4. ΋͏Ұ͓ͭΊͰ͍ͨࣄ͕


    ͋Γ·͢ΑͶʁ🐯

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  5. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε, ηɾϦʔά༏উ͓ΊͰͱ͏͍͟͝·͢🎉


    2005೥Ҏདྷ18೥ͿΓͷ༏উ🐯

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  6. 334
    ʲ౾஌ࣝʳ͓ೃછΈͷͪ͜Βͷ਺ࣈ͸18೥લͷ༏উ͕ΩοΧέͰര஀.

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  7. 18೥ͿΓʹʮ༏উʯΛ


    Ϳ͔ͪ·ͨ͠ࡕਆλΠΨʔε


    ݁ہԿ͕ྑ͔ͬͨͷ͔🤔

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  8. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷཧ༝ʢͲΕ΋ਖ਼ղʣ
    1. ໊কʮԬాজ෍ʯ௨শʮͲΜͰΜʯͷ؂ಜ෮ؼ.

    →18೥લͷ༏উ΋Ԭా؂ಜ&ʮͦΒɺͦ͏Αʯͱೲಘߦ໊͘ࡃ഑.


    2. ࣆJAPAN͕༏উͨ͠WBCʹελϝϯڃͷબखΛग़͍ͯ͠ͳ͔ͬͨ.

    ࡕਆ͔Β͸த໺ͱ౬ઙͷΈ͔ͭ͞΄Ͳग़৔ճ਺͸ଟ͘ͳ͍.


    3. ʮ͓ࢄา͸େࣄʯʮ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʯͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑.

    ۩ମతʹ͸ʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯΛ୔ࢁબΜͩ.

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  9. ʮʰ͓ࢄา͸େࣄʱʰ໎ͬͨΒา͚ʱͱ͍͏ҙࣝͷժੜ͑ʯ


    ͜Ε͕ࡕਆλΠΨʔε༏উͷ΋ͬͱ΋Β͍͠ཧ༝ͩͱσʔλ͸ݴͬͯ·ͨ͠.

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  10. ࡕਆͷεʔύʔυϥΠͳʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ
    • όολʔ͸ࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃ౓ʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞.


    • ϐονϟʔ͸ࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ.


    ͳ͓໺ٿʹ͓͚Δʮ͓ࢄาʯ͸ʮ࢛ٿʢϑΥΞϘʔϧʣʯͷࣄ.


    ※εϥϯάతʹʮࢄาʯͱಡΜͰ͍·͢ʢʮา͔ͤΔʯͱ͔ݴ͏ʣ.

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  11. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶃ
    όολʔ͸ࡾৼͯ͠


    ͍͍͔Β


    ʮۃ౓ʹ͓ࢄาʯ


    ͠ͳ͍͞.
    ࡾৼͯ͠΋͍͍͔Βา͚.
    11

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  12. ʮ໠ދଧઢʯվΊʮ໠”า”ଧઢʯ
    • 2023೥ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱ࢛ͯ͠ٿͷ਺͕ΊͪΌͪ͘Όଟ͍.


    • ηɾϦʔάͲ͜Ζ͔ϓϩ໺ٿશମͰ΋ΠέͯΔग़ྥ཰ͷߴ͞.


    • Ұํ, ࢛ٿΛऔΓʹߦ͘ͷʹ଴ͭͨΊࡾৼ΋૿͍͑ͯΔ.

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  13. 11ଧ੮ʹ1ճ͓ࢄา͢ΔࡕਆλΠΨʔε͞Μ༏लʢϦʔά1Ґʣ.


    ࠷ԼҐத೔υϥΰϯζΑΓ1.5ഒͷϖʔεͰʮ͓ࢄาʯΛྔ࢈.

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  14. Ұํ, ࡾઢͷ਺΋۶ࢦͰ4.5ଧ੮ʹҰ౓ࡾৼ͍ͯ͠ΔʢϦʔάϫʔετʣ.


    ܭࢉ্ελϝϯͷશଧऀ͕ࢼ߹தʹ1ճ͸ࡾৼ͍ͯ͠Δࣄʹ.

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  15. 2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄา͢Δॱʹฒ΂ͨϞϊ.


    ࡕਆૉ੖Β͍͠, Ұํʮྩ࿨ͷถ૽ಈʯͷத೔͞Μ(ry

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  16. ࡕਆλΠΨʔε͓ࢄาͷྲّྀᶄ
    ϐονϟʔ͸ࡾৼΛ


    औΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘Β
    ʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ.
    ૬खͷଧऀΛྥʹग़͢΂͔Βͣ.
    16

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  17. ૬खͷʮࢄาʯΛઈରʹࢭΊΔ౤खਞ.
    • 2023೥ͷࡕਆλΠΨʔε, νʔϜͱͯ͠౤खͷ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍.


    • ༩࢛ٿ͕গͳ͍ = ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ͍ͤͯ͞ͳ͍.


    • ͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼ΋औΕ͓ͯΓ, ࡕਆ౤खਞͷ༏ल͕͞Θ͔Δ.

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  18. ༏लͳࡕਆ౤खਞ, ૬खʹ࢛ٿʢࢄาʣΛ࠷΋༩͍͑ͯͳ͍ʢϦʔά1Ґʣ.


    ૬खଧऀʹ͸ແବͳ࢛ٿΛग़͞ͳ͍ͱ͍͏పఈͨ͠ํ਑.

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  19. ༏लͳࡕਆ౤खਞ, ૬ख͔Βͦͦ͜͜ࡾৼΛୣ͏໛༷ʢϦʔά4Ґʣ.


    ࢛ٿ͕ݮΔͱ͍͏͜ͱ͸ࡾৼΛऔΕͳ͍ࣄʹ΋ܨ͕Δ͕ҧͬͯͨ…ੌ͍🐯

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  20. 2ͭͷάϥϑΛ͚ͬͭͯ͘ࢄาͤ͞ͳ͍ॱʹฒ΂ͨϞϊ.


    ࡕਆ͕ૉ੖Β͍͕͠, DeNAͷʮࡾৼͨ͘͞ΜऔΔʯʮ࢛ٿগͳ͍ʯ͔͍͍ͬ͜.

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  21. ???ʮPythonͷ࿩͕ແ͍͡Όͳ͍͔ʁ͍͍͔͛Μʹ͠Ζʯ

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  22. ࠓ೔ͷσʔλ͸


    શ෦PythonͰ


    ͍͍ײ͡ʹ🐍
    େͨ͠ίʔυ͡Όͳ͍ͷͰͥͻਅࣅͯ͠΍ͬͯΈͯ.
    https://gist.github.com/Shinichi-Nakagawa/3ca01932532ba41ceaef94bd722107b9
    NPBͷWebαΠτΛ


    εΫϨΠϐϯά


    Google ColabͰ


    γϡοͱՄࢹԽ.

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  23. ʲ݁࿦ʳࡕਆλΠΨʔεʮ͓ࢄาʯͷྲّྀ
    • όολʔ͸ࡾৼ͍͍͔ͯ͠Βʮۃ౓ʹ͓ࢄาʯ͠ͳ͍͞.


    • ϐονϟʔ͸ࡾৼΛऔΒͳ͍͍͔ͯ͘ΒʮࢄาΛࢭΊΖʯ.


    • ͳ͓, ࢛ٿ͕૿͑Δͱࡾৼ΋૿͑Δʢ܏޲ʣͳͷͰ(ry


    ͓Θ͔Γ͍͚ͨͩͨͩΖ͏͔?

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  24. ͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠🐯

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