データの可視化 Part2 - 時系列データの可視化

by Takato Shiroto

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EXPLORATORY σʔλͷՄࢹԽϫʔΫγϣοϓ #2 ࣌ܥྻσʔλͷՄࢹԽฤ

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2 εϐʔΧʔ നށ ܟొ Customer Succes EXPLORATORY ུྺ େֶࡏֶதʹϑʔυϩεΛݮΒͨ͢ΊʹɺֶੜஂମΛ্ཱͪ͛୅දΛ ຿ΊΔɻͦͷޙɺϏδωεΛ஌ΔͨΊʹԽֶϝʔΧʔͷσϡϙϯͱ ϑʔυςοΫܥελʔτΞοϓͰӦۀͱϚʔέςΟϯάΛܦݧɻΞϓ Ϧͷ੒௕ͷͨΊʹ͸σʔλαΠΤϯε͕ඞཁͩͱײ͡ɺΞϓϦʹಛԽ ͨ͠Ϣʔβʔͷߦಈ෼ੳπʔϧΛ։ൃ͢ΔاۀʹͯɺΞϓϦۀքͷ KPI෼ੳͳͲΛ୲౰͢Δɻݱࡏ͸Exploratory, Inc. ͰΧελϚʔαΫη εΛ୲౰͢Δ๣ΒɺσʔλͷՄࢹԽͱ୳ࡧతσʔλ෼ੳΛઐ໳ͱͯ͠ σʔλαΠΤϯεͷීٴʹऔΓ૊Ήɻ @ShirotoTakato

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 3

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σʔλͷΠϯϙʔτ 4

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αϯϓϧσʔλ ͜ͷΨΠυͰ͸ʮAirbnbͷ౦ژͷ॓ധࢪઃσʔλʯΛ࢖͏ɻ 5

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6 σʔλϑϨʔϜͷϓϥεϘλϯ( + )͔ΒσʔλɾΧλϩάΛબͿ

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7 αʔνϘοΫεʹAirbnbͱೖྗͯ͠ݕࡧ͢Δ

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8 σʔλͷ৘ใΛݟ͍ͨ৔߹͸։͘ϘλϯΛΫϦοΫ͢Δ

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9 Metadataλϒ͔Βσʔλͷઆ໌Λ֬ೝͰ͖Δ

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10 ΠϯϙʔτϘλϯΛΫϦοΫͯ͠σʔλΛΠϯϙʔτ͢Δ

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11 อଘΛΫϦοΫ͢Δ

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12 σʔλΛΠϯϙʔτ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨ

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13 ࢖༻͢Δओͳσʔλ

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Airbnbʹొ࿥͞Ε͍ͯΔ॓ധࢪઃ਺͸ ͲͷΑ͏ʹ૿Ճ͍ͯ͠Δͷ͔ʁ

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νϟʔτλϒΛΫϦοΫ͢Δɻ

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• λΠϓͰϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ • X࣠ʹ॓ധࢪઃͷొ࿥೔(host_since)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • Y࣠ʹߦͷ਺Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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σϑΥϧτͰ͸೔෇ͷूܭ୯Ґ͸ؙΊॲཧͷ೥ʹͳ͍ͬͯΔɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 18

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19 ؙΊॲཧͱ͸Կ͔ʁ

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ؙΊॲཧͷ೥ͷ৔߹͸ɺͲͷ೔Ͱ͋ͬͯ΋ͦͷ೥ͷ1݄1೔ʹ·ͱΊΒΕΔɻ

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ͭ·Γɺ2019೥ͷ৔߹͸2019-01-01ʹɺ2020೥ͷ৔߹͸2020-01-01ͱͳΔɻ

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22 ؙΊॲཧͷ݄Ͱ͸ɺͲͷ೔Ͱ͋ͬͯ΋ͦͷ݄ͷ1೔ʹ·ͱΊΒΕΔɻ

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23 ؙΊॲཧͷिͰ͸िͷ࢝·Γͷ೔ʹ·ͱΊΒΕΔɻ

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ؙΊॲཧͷ೥ͷ৔߹͸ɺ2015-02-05΍2015- 07-02Λ2015-01-01ʹ੾ΓࣺͯΔɻ ؙΊॲཧͷ೥ͷ৔߹

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2014೥͋ͨΓ͔Β॓ओͷ਺͕૿Ճ͠ɺ2018೥͕࠷΋॓ओ͕૿Ճ͍ͯ͠Δɻ

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೔෇ͷूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷ݄Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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ؙΊॲཧͷ݄ͷ৔߹͸ɺ2015-09-05΍2015- 09-21Λ2015-09-01ʹ੾ΓࣺͯΔɻ ؙΊॲཧͷ݄ͷ৔߹

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ؙΊॲཧͷ೥ʹൺ΂ͯΑΓࡉ͔ͳτϨϯυΛಡΈऔΔ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ 2015೥ͷޙ൒͔ΒҰؾʹ॓ധࢪઃ਺͕૿Ճ ͠ɺ2018೥·Ͱ্ঢԼ߱Λ܁Γฦ͍ͯ͠ Δɻ2018೥ͷ3݄͋ͨΓ͔Β͜Ε·ͰҎ্ʹ ૿Ճ͍ͯ͠ΔΑ͏ͩɻ

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೔෇ͷूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷिΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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ؙΊॲཧͷिͷ৔߹͸ɺઃఆ͞Εͨिͷ࢝ Γͷ༵೔Λݩʹɺ࣍ͷि·Ͱͷ஋Λ੾Γࣺ ͯͯ·ͱΊΒΕΔɻ ؙΊॲཧͷिͷ৔߹

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ि͝ͱʹ͢ΔͱΑΓࡉ͔ͳ஋ΛಡΈऔΔ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ͕ɺઢ্͕Լʹ೾ ଧ͍ͬͯΔͨΊτϨϯυ͕ಡΈऔΓͮΒ͍ɻ

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σʔλͷظؒʹ߹ΘͤͯτϨϯυ͕ಡΈऔΓ΍͍͢ूܭ୯ҐΛબͿɻ

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೔෇ͷूܭ୯Ґʹநग़ͷ݄ - γϣʔτΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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݄ͷγϣʔτͷ৔߹͸1-12݄ͷ਺ࣈͷΈΛදࣔ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ

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॓ധࢪઃ਺ͷ૿Ճ਺͕݄ʹΑͬͯҧ͍͕͋Δ͔͕ಡΈऔΕΔɻࠓճͷ৔߹ ͸7݄͕࠷΋ଟ͘ɺ2݄͕গͳ͍͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δɻ

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೔෇ͷूܭ୯Ґʹநग़ͷ݄ - ϩϯάΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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݄ͷϩϯάͷ৔߹͸1݄ɺ2݄ͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ʹ݄΋ؚΊͨঢ়ଶͰදࣔͰ͖Δɻ

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38 ॓ധࢪઃͷ਺͸Ͳͷ࣌ظʹ૿Ճͨ͠ͷ͔ʁ

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೔෇ͷूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷ݄Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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ͦͷ݄ʹ͓͚Δ॓ധࢪઃͷ૿Ճ਺͸Θ͔Δ͕ɺͦͷ࣌఺Ͱ॓ധࢪઃ͕ͲΕ ͘Β͍͋Δͷ͔͸Θ͔Βͳ͍ɻ

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ྫ͑͹ɺ2016೥ͷ࣌఺ͰͲΕ͘Β͍ͷ॓ധࢪઃ਺͕͋Δͷ͔ʁ

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͜Ε·Ͱͷ॓ധࢪઃ਺ΛੵΈ্͛ͨྦྷੵ߹ܭ஋ʹ͢Δ͜ͱͰɺͦͷ࣌఺Ͱ ͷ॓ധࢪઃͷ਺Λ஌Γ͍ͨͱ͍࣭ͬͨ໰ʹ౴͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 43

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Y࣠ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒදܭࢉΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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• ܭࢉͷλΠϓʹྦྷܭΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ͷूܭํ๏ʹ߹ܭ஋(sum)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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2014೥͔Β॓ധࢪઃ਺͕૿Ճ࢝͠Ίɺ2018೥Ͱ͸ΑΓٸܹʹ૿͍͑ͯΔɻ

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47 ॓ധࢪઃͷλΠϓ΍ࢢ۠ொଜʹΑͬͯ ૿ՃͷτϨϯυ͸ҧ͏ͷ͔ʁ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 48

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৭ (άϧʔϓԽ)ʹ॓ധࢪઃͷλΠϓ(property_type)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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Apartment͸2014೥͔Β॓ധࢪઃ਺͕૿Ճ࢝͠Ίɺ2018೥Ͱ͸ΑΓٸܹʹ૿ ͍͑ͯΔɻઌ΄ͲݟͨશମͷτϨϯυ͸͜ͷ࠷΋॓ധࢪઃ਺ͷଟ͍ ApartmentΛද͍ͯͨ͠ͷ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ɻ

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ApartmentͷຌྫΛΫϦοΫͯ͠ඇදࣔʹ͢Δɻ

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House΋Apartmentͱಉ͡Α͏ͳτϨϯυͰ॓ധࢪઃ਺͕૿Ճ͍ͯ͠ΔɻHostel ͸2017೥ͷ൒͹͔Βٸܹʹ૿͍͑ͯΔ͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 53

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ຌྫͷதʹOthersͱ͍ͬͨάϧʔϓ͕͋Δɻ

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55 ΧςΰϦʔͷҰҙͳ஋ͷ਺͕20ΑΓ΋ଟ͍৔߹ɺසग़͢Δ্Ґ20ͷάϧʔϓͱ ͦΕҎ֎ͷάϧʔϓΛ·ͱΊͨOtherάϧʔϓ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ

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56 OtherάϧʔϓͷઃఆΛ͢ΔͨΊʹ྘ͷจࣈΛΫϦοΫ͢Δɻ

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57 සग़άϧʔϓͷ਺ʹ5Λࢦఆͯ͠ద༻͢Δɻ

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58 සग़͢Δ্Ґ5ͷάϧʔϓͱͦΕҎ֎Λ·ͱΊͨOtherάϧʔϓ͕࡞ΒΕͨɻ

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৭ (άϧʔϓԽ)ʹࢢ۠ொଜ(city)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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ौ୩۠ͱಉ͡Α͏ͳτϨϯυͩͬͨ๛ౡ͕۠2018೥ΑΓ॓ധࢪઃ਺͕ٸ૿ Խ͍ͯ͠Δɻ

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61 ॓ധࢪઃͷλΠϓ͝ͱͰݟΔͱ Ͳͷࢢ۠ொଜ͕॓ധࢪઃ਺͕৳ͼ͍ͯΔ͔ʁ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 62

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܁Γฦ͠ʹ॓ധࢪઃͷλΠϓ(property_type)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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॓ധࢪઃͷλΠϓ(Property_type)͝ͱʹ20ݸͷνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ ͖͕ͨɺओཁͳ॓ധࢪઃͷλΠϓͷΈΛ࢒͍ͨ͠ɻ

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܁Γฦ͠ͷOthrerάϧʔϓͷઃఆΛ͢ΔͨΊʹɺ྘ͷจࣈΛΫϦοΫ͢Δɻ

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සग़άϧʔϓͷ਺ʹ5Λࢦఆ͢Δɻ

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॓ധࢪઃͷ݅਺(ߦ਺)͕ଟ্͍Ґ5ͭͷλΠϓͱOtherάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔ τΛ࡞Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ

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6ݸͷνϟʔτ͕࡞ΒΕ͍ͯΔͷͰɺߦ ͋ͨΓͷνϟʔτͷ਺Λ3ʹ͍ͨ͠ɻ

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܁Γฦ͠ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒϨΠΞ΢τΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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ߦ͋ͨΓͷνϟʔτͷ਺ʹ3Λࢦఆ͢Δɻ

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Y͕࣠Apartmentʹ߹Θͤͯ࡞ΒΕ͍ͯ ΔͨΊɺͦΕҎ֎ͷνϟʔτͰͷτϨϯ υ͕ಡΈऔΕͳ͍ɻ

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νϟʔτؒͰY࣠Λಉظ͢ΔͷνΣοΫΛ֎͢ɻ

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ϨΠΞ΢τΛઃఆ͢Δ͜ͱʹΑΓͦΕͧΕͷνϟʔτ͕ݟ΍͘͢ͳͬͨɻ

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୆౦۠͸2016೥Ҏ͔߱ΒCondominium΍HostelɺHotel͕ٸܹʹ૿Ճ͍ͯ͠Δɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 75

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৭ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒϋΠϥΠτΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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• ϋΠϥΠτΛ༗ޮʹ͢ΔʹνΣοΫΛ͢Δɻ • ϋΠϥΠτ͢Δ஋ʹ୆౦۠Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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୆౦۠͸Hostel΍HotelɺCondominiumҎ֎ͷλΠϓͰ΋॓ധࢪઃ਺͕૿Ճ ͍ͯ͠ΔΑ͏ͩɻ

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79 ࣌ܥྻσʔλ͸ଞʹ΋ՄࢹԽͷํ๏͕͋Δɻ

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࠷ॳͷ஋ʹൺ΂ͯͲΕ͚ͩ஋͕૿͍͑ͯΔͷ͔ݮ͍ͬͯΔͷ͔ ࢖༻͢Δػೳɿදܭࢉ(ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹)

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׈Β͔ͳۂઢΛඳ͍ͯτϨϯυΛཧղ͍ͨ͠ ࢖༻͢Δػೳɿදܭࢉ(Ҡಈฏۉ)

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௚ઢ·ͨ͸ۂઢΛඳ͍ͯτϨϯυΛཧղ͍ͨ͠ ࢖༻͢ΔػೳɿτϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess)

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83 ͜ΕΒͷ࢖͍ํΛ঺հ͢ΔͨΊʹגՁσʔλΛ࢖༻͢Δɻ

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גՁσʔλ

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σʔλϑϨʔϜͷϓϥεϘλϯ͔ΒΤΫεςϯγϣϯσʔλΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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Historical Stock Prices͔ΒσʔλΛΠϯϙʔτΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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Stock SymbolsʹגՁΛऔಘ͍ͨ͠اۀͷ໏ฑΛೖྗ͢Δɻ

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ࠓճ͸USͷςοΫاۀͷגՁΛऔಘ͍ͨ͠ɻ

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89 اۀ໊ ໏ฑ(Symbol) Google GOOG Amazon AMZN Facebook FB Apple AAPL NETFLIX NFLX

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Stock SymbolsʹGOOG,AMZN,FB,AAPL,NFLXͱೖྗ͢Δɻ

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Date Fromʹ2015-01-01ͱೖྗͯ͠อଘϘλϯΛΫϦοΫ͢Δɻ

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σʔλϑϨʔϜ໊ʹ೚ҙͷ໊લΛೖྗͯ͠࡞੒͢Δɻ

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גՁͷσʔλΛΠϯϙʔτ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ

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94 Ұߦ͕ͦΕͧΕͷاۀͰͷ1೔ͷגՁΛද͍ͯ͠Δɻ(౔೔ɾॕ͸আ͘)

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95 ࢖༻͢Δओͳσʔλ

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ௐ੔ޙऴ஋ͱ͸Կ͔ʁ

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97 ௐ੔ޙऴ஋ͷલʹגࣜ෼ׂΛ஌Δඞཁ͕͋Δɻגࣜ෼ׂ͕ߦΘΕͯɺ ෼ׂൺ཰͕1ג͔Β̎גͷ৔߹͸ɺגՁ͸൒෼ʹͳΔɻ 1ג:1,000ԁ 1ג:500ԁ 1ג:500ԁ גࣜ෼ׂ࣮ࢪ ݩʑ͸1גͩͬͨͷ͕2גʹͳΔɻ

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98 ೔෇ ऴ஋ 2020೥3݄1೔ 20,000 2020೥3݄2೔ 22,000 2020೥3݄3೔ 12,000 2020೥3݄4೔ 13,000 ऴ஋͚ͩͰݟ͍ͯΔͱɺגࣜ෼ׂ͞ΕΔͱגՁ͕ٸʹ൒෼ʹͳͬͯ͠ ·ͬͯגՁ͕ٸམ͍ͯ͠ΔΑ͏ʹݟ͑ͯ͠·͏ɻ גࣜ෼ׂ

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99 ೔෇ ऴ஋ ௐ੔ޙऴ஋ 2020೥3݄1೔ 20,000 10,000 2020೥3݄2೔ 22,000 11,000 2020೥3݄3೔ 12,000 12,000 2020೥3݄4೔ 13,000 13,000 ௐ੔ޙऴ஋Ͱ͸ɺגࣜ෼ׂͷ࣮ࢪͷલޙͰגՁΛ࿈ଓతʹͱΒ͑Δͨ Ίʹɺ෼ׂ࣮ࢪલͷऴ஋Λ෼ׂޙͷ஋ʹௐ੔ͯ͘͠ΕΔɻ גࣜ෼ׂ

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௚ۙ1೥ؒͰגՁʹେ͖ͳมಈ͕͋ͬͨاۀ͸͋Δ͔ʁ

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• λΠϓͰϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ • X࣠ʹ೔෇(date)Λબͼɺूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷ೔ Λબ୒͢Δɻ • Y࣠ʹௐ੔ࡁΈגՁ(adjusted)Λબͼɺूܭؔ਺ʹ ฏۉ஋(mean)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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৭(άϧʔϓԽ)ʹ໏ฑ(symbol)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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௚ۙ1೥ؒͷגՁΛՄࢹԽ͍ͨ͠ɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 104

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ϑΟϧλΛΫϦοΫ͢Δɻ

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• ྻʹdateΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ϑΟϧλԋࢉࢠʹ૬ର೔෇Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ೔෇λΠϓʹ೥Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ͷλΠϓʹ࠷ۙN೥ؒΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ʹ1Λೖྗ࣮ͯ͠ߦ͢Δɻ

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Amazon΍GoogleͰ͸2020೥3݄·ͰͷגՁ͸େ͖ͳม ಈ͸ͳ͔͕ͬͨɺ3݄ʹגՁ͕Ұ࣌Լམ͠ɺAmazon͸4 ݄ʹೖΔͱ͜Ε·ͰҎ্ʹגՁ͕஋্͕Γ͍ͯ͠Δɻ ֤اۀͷ௚ۙͷ1೥ؒͷגՁ͕ՄࢹԽ͞ΕΔɻ

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AmazonͱGoogleͷຌྫΛΫϦοΫͯ͠ඇදࣔʹ͢Δɻ ͲͷاۀͰ΋3݄ʹೖ͔ͬͯΒגՁ͕஋Լ͕Γ ͍ͯ͠ΔɻNETFLIX͸10݄ʹ͔͚ͯגՁ͕ݮগ ͠ɺ11݄͔Β·ͨגՁ͕஋্͕Γ͍ͯ͠Δɻ

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͜ΕΒͷاۀͷ͏ͪͲͷاۀʹ౤ࢿ͍͔ͨ͠ʁ

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• λΠϓͰϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ • X࣠ʹ೔෇(date)Λબͼɺूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷ೔ Λબ୒͢Δɻ • Y࣠ʹௐ੔ࡁΈגՁ(adjusted)Λબͼɺूܭؔ਺ʹ ฏۉ஋(mean)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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৭(άϧʔϓԽ)ʹ໏ฑ(symbol)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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GoogleΑΓ௿͔ͬͨAmazonͷגՁ͕2018೥͔ΒGoogleʹେ෯ͳࠩΛ ্͚ͭͯঢ͍ͯ͠Δɻ

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΋͠աڈʹ໭Εͨͱͯ͠ɺ2015೥ͷ࣌ʹ౤ࢿ͢Δͱͨ͠Βɺ Ͳͷاۀʹ౤ࢿΛ͍ͯͨ͠Β࠷΋Ϧλʔϯ͕େ͖͍͔ɻ

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ͦ͏͍ͬͨ࣌ʹ͸ɺ࠷ॳͷ஋ʹൺ΂ͯ גՁͷ஋͕ͲΕ͚ͩ૿͍͑ͯΔ͔ΛՄࢹԽ͢Δɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 115

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දܭࢉ 1. ࠩ(࠷ॳͷ஋) 2. ࠩͷׂ߹(࠷ॳͷ஋) 3. ׂ߹(࠷ॳͷ஋) 116

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Y࣠ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒදܭࢉΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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• ܭࢉͷλΠϓʹࠩΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ࠩͷܭࢉํ๏ʹ࠷ॳͷ஋(ﬁrst)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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࠷ॳͷגՁ(2015-01-01)ʹൺ΂ͯͲΕ͚ͩגՁͷฏۉ஋͕૿Ճ͍ͯ͠ Δͷ͔ΛݟΔ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ΔɻAmazonͱNETFLIXͷגՁͷ৳ͼ͕2018 ೥͋ͨΓ͔Β্ঢ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δɻ

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גՁͷ஋্͕Γ͕ଞͷاۀʹൺ΂ͯߴ͍ͨΊɺଞͷا ۀͷגՁ͕੒௕͍ͯ͠Δͷ͔͕Θ͔ΓͮΒ͍ɻ

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GoogleͱAmazonͷຌྫΛΫϦοΫͯ͠ඇ දࣔʹ͢ΔͱɺଞͷاۀͷגՁ΋੒௕ͯ͠ ͍Δ͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δɻ

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GoogleͱNETFLIXͷגՁΛݩʹ੒௕ʹ͍ͭͯߟ͑ͯΈΔɻ

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ࠩ Googleͷ৔߹͸࠷ॳͷ஋ʹൺ΂ͨגՁͷ஋্͕Γ͸700ͱେ͖͍͕ɺ੒௕཰ ͰݟΔͱ140%ͱͳΔɻ

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NETFLIXͷ৔߹͸࠷ॳͷ஋ʹൺ΂ͨגՁͷ஋্͕Γ͸345ͱGoogleʹൺ΂Δ ͱখ͍͕͞ɺ੒௕཰ͰݟΔͱ໿625%΋͋Δɻ ࠩ

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גՁͷ੒௕཰Λݟͯ౤ࢿ͢ΔاۀΛܾΊ͍ͨɻ

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දܭࢉ 1. ࠩ(࠷ॳͷ஋) 2. ࠩͷׂ߹(࠷ॳͷ஋) 3. ׂ߹(࠷ॳͷ஋) 126

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• ܭࢉͷλΠϓʹࠩͷׂ߹Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ࠩͷܭࢉํ๏ʹ࠷ॳͷ஋(ﬁrst)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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גՁͷ੒௕཰ͰݟΔͱɺAmazonͱNETFLIX͕࠷΋ߴ͘ɺಉ͡Α͏ͳτϨϯ υΛඳ͍͍ͯΔ͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δɻ

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දܭࢉ 1. ࠩ(࠷ॳͷ஋) 2. ࠩͷׂ߹(࠷ॳͷ஋) 3. ׂ߹(࠷ॳͷ஋) 129

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• ܭࢉͷλΠϓʹׂ߹Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ࠩͷܭࢉํ๏ʹ࠷ॳͷ஋(ﬁrst)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • άϧʔϓԽʹ৭Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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ઌఔͷࠩͷׂ߹ͷνϟʔτͱಉ͡Α͏ʹגՁͷ੒௕཰ͷνϟʔτ͕࡞ΒΕΔɻ

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ࠩͷׂ߹ͱҧ͏఺ͱͯ͠ɺ࠷ॳͷ஋ͷ։࢝Ґஔ͕100%͔Β࢝·͍ͬͯΔɻ

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200 1,000 ࠩͷׂ߹ 2019೥ 2020೥ 200 / 1,000 = 20%

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1,200 1,000 1,200 / 1,000 = 120% ׂ߹ 2019೥ 2020೥

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ࠩͷׂ߹ ׂ߹ ࠩͷׂ߹ͷ৔߹͸ࠩΛٻΊͯͦΕΛׂ߹ͱͯ͠ܭࢉ͢Δͷʹର͠ɺ ׂ߹ͷ৔߹͸ର৅ͷ஋ʹൺ΂ͯͷׂ߹Λܭࢉ͢Δͱ͍͏ҧ͍͕͋Δɻ

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136 גՁ͸೔͝ͱʹ஋্͕Լ͍ͯ͠ΔͨΊɺτϨϯυ͕ಡΈऔΓͮΒ͍ɻ

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137 גՁͷେ·͔ͳτϨϯυΛཧղ͢ΔͨΊʹҠಈฏۉΛ࢖ͬͯ׈Β͔ͳۂઢΛҾ͖͍ͨɻ

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FacebookͷגՁΛ࢖ͬͯࢼͯ͠ΈΔʂ

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139 • λΠϓͰϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ • X࣠ʹ೔෇(date)Λબͼɺूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷ೔ Λબ୒͢Δɻ • Y࣠ʹௐ੔ࡁΈגՁ(adjusted)Λબͼɺूܭؔ਺ʹ ฏۉ஋(mean)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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140 νϟʔτ্෦ͷϑΟϧλΛΫϦοΫ͢Δɻ

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141 • ྻʹ໏ฑ(symbol)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ԋࢉࢠʹ౳͍͠Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ʹFBΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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142 FacebookͷגՁͷΈΛՄࢹԽͰ͖ͨɻ

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143 2018೥Ҏ߱ʹ͢ΔͨΊʹ΋͏ͻͱͭϑΟϧλΛ௥Ճ͢Δɻ

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144 • ྻʹ೔෇(date)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ԋࢉࢠʹҎޙΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ͷλΠϓʹ೥Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ʹ2018Λೖྗ͢Δɻ

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145 FaceBookͷ2018೥Ҏ߱ͷגՁΛՄࢹԽ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 146

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147 גՁ͸ຖ೔্͕ͬͨΓԼ͕ͬͨΓ͍ͯ͠Δͨ Ίɺશମͱͯ͠ͷτϨϯυΛ௫ΈͮΒ͍ɻ

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τϨϯυΛཧղ͍ͨͨ͠ΊҠಈฏۉΛҾ͖͍ͨ ೔Ҡಈฏۉ ೔Ҡಈฏۉ

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ͦ΋ͦ΋ɺҠಈฏۉͱ͸Կ͔ʁ

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150 ೔෇ ஋ 2020/4/1 100 2020/4/2 120 2020/4/3 110 2020/4/4 150 2020/4/5 120 2020/4/6 150 2020/4/7 170 5೔ҠಈฏۉͰ஋ΛٻΊͯΈΔɻ

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151 ೔෇ ஋ 5೔Ҡಈฏۉ 2020/4/1 100 2020/4/2 120 2020/4/3 110 2020/4/4 150 2020/4/5 120 120 2020/4/6 150 2020/4/7 170

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152 ೔෇ ஋ 5೔Ҡಈฏۉ 2020/4/1 100 2020/4/2 120 2020/4/3 110 2020/4/4 150 2020/4/5 120 120 2020/4/6 150 130 2020/4/7 170

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153 ೔෇ ஋ 5೔Ҡಈฏۉ 2020/4/1 100 2020/4/2 120 2020/4/3 110 2020/4/4 150 2020/4/5 120 120 2020/4/6 150 130 2020/4/7 170 140 ฏۉ஋ΛͱΔൣғΛҠಈ͠ͳ͕Β஋ΛٻΊ͍ͯ͘ܭࢉํ๏Ͱ͋Δɻ

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154 Y࣠ʹௐ੔ࡁΈגՁ(adjusted)ͷฏۉ஋(mean)Λ৽͘͠௥Ճ͢Δɻ

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155 ৽͘͠௥Ճ͞Εͨྻͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒදܭࢉΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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156 • ܭࢉͷλΠϓʹҠಈܭࢉΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ͷूܭํ๏ʹฏۉ஋(mean)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ΢Οϯυ΢αΠζʹ25Λࢦఆ͢Δɻ

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157 25೔ͷҠಈฏۉͷઢΛҾ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ25೔ͷҠಈฏۉͩͱɺେ·͔ͳ τϨϯυͱ͍͏ΑΓ͸ɺ࣮ઢʹϑΟοτͨ͠ۂઢ͕ඳ͔ΕΔɻ

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75೔Ҡಈฏۉ΋ಉ༷ʹ௥Ճ͢Δ

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159 Y࣠ʹௐ੔ࡁΈגՁ(adjusted)ͷฏۉ஋(mean)Λ৽͘͠௥Ճ͢Δɻ

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160 ৽͘͠௥Ճ͞Εͨྻͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒදܭࢉΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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161 • ܭࢉͷλΠϓʹҠಈܭࢉΛબ୒͢Δɻ • ஋ͷूܭํ๏ʹฏۉ஋(mean)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ΢Οϯυ΢αΠζʹ75Λࢦఆ͢Δɻ

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162 25೔ͱ75೔ͷҠಈฏۉͷઢΛҾ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ75೔Ҡಈฏۉ͸25೔Ҡಈ ฏۉͷઢΑΓ׈Β͔ͳۂઢ͕ඳ͔ΕΔɻ

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σοτΫϩε ΰʔϧσϯΫϩε

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σοτΫϩεͱ͸75೔Ҡಈฏۉͷઢͷ্͔ Β25೔Ҡಈฏۉઢ͕ަࠩ͢Δ͜ͱΛࢦ͢ɻ σοτΫϩεʹͳΔͱגՁ͕Լམ͢Δͱݴ ΘΕ͍ͯΔɻ

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ΰʔϧσϯΫϩεͱ͸75೔Ҡಈฏۉͷ ઢͷԼ͔Β25೔Ҡಈฏۉઢ͕ަࠩ͢Δ ͜ͱΛࢦ͢ɻΰʔϧσϯΫϩεʹͳΔ ͱגՁ্͕ঢ͢ΔͱݴΘΕ͍ͯΔɻ

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ΞδΣϯμ • ೔෇ɾ࣌ؒͷूܭ୯ҐΛมߋ͢Δ • දܭࢉ - ྦྷੵ߹ܭ • ৭Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓΛ෼͚Δ • ͦͷଞάϧʔϓ • ܁Γฦ͠Λ࢖ͬͯάϧʔϓ͝ͱʹνϟʔτΛ࡞Δ • ϋΠϥΠτ • ϑΟϧλ • දܭࢉ - ࠩɺࠩͷׂ߹ɺׂ߹ • දܭࢉ - Ҡಈฏۉ • τϨϯυϥΠϯ(ઢܗճؼɺLoess) 167

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τϨϯυϥΠϯ • ઢܗճؼ • ଟ߲ࣜ (Loess) 168

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τϨϯυϥΠϯ • ઢܗճؼ • ଟ߲ࣜ (Loess) 169

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τϨϯυϥΠϯ: ઢܗճؼ

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ઢܗճؼ͸ͦΕͧΕͷσʔλϙΠϯτ͔Βͷڑ཭͕࠷΋গͳ͍ͱ͜ ΖʹઢΛҾ͍ͯ͘ΕΔ

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• λΠϓͰϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ • X࣠ʹ೔෇(date)Λબͼɺूܭ୯ҐʹؙΊॲཧͷ݄ Λબ୒͢Δɻ • Y࣠ʹௐ੔ࡁΈגՁ(adjusted)Λબͼɺूܭؔ਺ʹ ฏۉ஋(mean)Λબ୒͢Δɻ • ৭(άϧʔϓԽ)ʹ໏ฑ(symbol)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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Y࣠ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒτϨϯυϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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λΠϓʹઢܗճؼΛબ୒ͯ͠ద༻͢Δɻ

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Amazon͸ઢܗճؼͷ܏͖͕ٸͳͷͰɺ੒௕ͷ֯౓͕ߴ͍͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δɻ

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τϨϯυϥΠϯ • ઢܗճؼ • ଟ߲ࣜ (Loess) 176

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τϨϯυϥΠϯ: Loess

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Loess͸ہॴతͳ۠ؒͰͷσʔλϙΠϯτ͔Βͷڑ཭͕࠷΋গͳ͍ͱ ͜ΖʹઢΛҾ͍ͯ͘ΕΔ

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ઢܗճؼ Loess ઢܗճؼ͸௚ઢͰϑΟοτ͢ΔઢΛҾ͘ͷʹର͠ɺ Loess͸ΑΓ࣮σʔλʹϑΟοτͨ͠ܗͰઢΛҾ͍ͯ͘ΕΔɻ

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Y࣠ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒτϨϯυϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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λΠϓʹଟ߲ࣜ (Loess)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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ͦΕͧΕͷاۀͷגՁͷਪҠʹϑΟοτ͢Δ׈Β͔ͳۂઢΛඳ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ

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AMZNͱGOOGͷຌྫΛΫϦοΫͯ͠ඇදࣔʹͯ͠ɺଞͷاۀͷτϨϯυ΋ ֬ೝ͢Δɻ

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Ҡಈฏۉ vs Loess

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Ҡಈฏۉͷ໰୊఺ 1. ઢΛ׈Β͔ʹ͢Δ΄Ͳઢ͕୹͘ͳΔɻ 2. ݸʑͷσʔλϙΠϯτͷӨڹΛड͚΍͘͢ɺখ͞ͳ ೾ଧ͕ͪ໨ཱͭɻ 185

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ݸʑͷσʔλϙΠϯτʹӨڹΛड ͚ͯখ͞ͳ೾ଧ͕ͪ໨ཱͭɻ ઢ͕୹͘ͳΔ

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Y࣠ͷϝχϡʔ͔ΒτϨϯυϥΠϯΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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λΠϓʹଟ߲ࣜ (Loess)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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LoessۂઢΛҾ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ

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Ҡಈฏۉʹൺ΂ͯΑΓ׈Β͔ͳઢ Λඳ͘͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ ઢ͕୹͘ͳΔ͜ͱ͸ͳ͍

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Appendix

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λΠϜϨϯδεϥΠμʔΛදࣔʹνΣοΫΛ͢Δɻ

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νϟʔτͷԼ෦ʹλΠϜϨϯδεϥΠμʔ͕දࣔ͞ΕΔɻ

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λΠϜϨϯδεϥΠμʔΛυϥοάͯ͠ࢦఆ͞ΕͨൣғͷΈνϟʔτʹදࣔ ͞ΕΔɻ

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Q & A

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࣍ճηϛφʔ

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EXPLORATORY σʔλͷՄࢹԽϫʔΫγϣοϓ #3 ͹Β͖ͭͱ૬ؔͷՄࢹԽ

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ՄࢹԽɾϫʔΫγϣοϓ • ୈ1ճɿσʔλͷՄࢹԽ - جૅ • ୈ2ճɿ࣌ܥྻσʔλͷՄࢹԽ • ୈ3ճɿ͹Β͖ͭͱ૬ؔͷՄࢹԽ - 6/4(໦)12:00-13:00 • ୈ4ճɿՄࢹԽͷͨΊͷσʔλϥϯάϦϯά • ୈ5ճɿ৴པ۠ؒͷՄࢹԽ

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7݄ͷ։࠵೔ఔ ि຤൛: 2020೥7݄18(౔), 19೔(೔), 25೔(౔) ฏ೔൛: 2020೥7݄21(Ր), 22೔(ਫ), 23೔(໦)

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• ϓϩάϥϛϯάͳ͠ RݴޠͷUIͰ͋ΔExploratoryΛ෼ੳπʔϧͱͯ͠࢖༻͢ΔͨΊडߨத͸ɺϏδωεͷ ໰୊Λղܾ͢ΔͨΊʹඞཁͳσʔλαΠΤϯεͷख๏ͷशಘʹ100ˋूதͰ͖Δ • ෼ੳπʔϧͷϕϯμʔϩοΫΠϯͳ͠ ExploratoryͰͷ࡞ۀ͸શͯಠཱͨ͠ΦʔϓϯιʔεͷR؀ڥͰ࠶ݱ͕Մೳ • ϏδωεͰ࢖͑ΔࢥߟྗͱεΩϧͷशಘ σʔλαΠΤϯεͷεΩϧशಘ͚ͩͰͳ͘ɺσʔλ෼ੳʹඞཁͳࢥߟྗ΋शಘͰ͖Δ ಛ௃

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Exploratory presents. σʔλαΠΤϯεษڧձ ˌ13 2020೥5݄29೔ʢۚʣ13:00PM

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203 ࣌ؒ λΠτϧ ൃදऀ 13:00 ΦʔϓχϯάɾExploratory v6.0ͷ͝঺հ Exploratory, inc ੢ా צҰ࿠ 13:30 ʮSQLͷຽओԽʯͷऔΓ૊Έʹ͍ͭͯ Chatworkגࣜձࣾ ాத ѥر ༷ 13:45 GPSσʔλΛ࢖ͬͨਓͷҠಈͷՄࢹԽ ϨΠɾϑϩϯςΟΞגࣜձࣾ ٱอ ᠳଠ ༷ 14:00 ΫϥελϦϯά͔ΒಘͨΠϯαΠτͷறंαʔϏε΁ͷ׆༻ྫ גࣜձࣾΞΠωοτ ٶԬ ༏ଠ ༷ 14:15 ίϥϘϨʔγϣϯɾαʔόΛ׆༻ͨ͠ΠϯαΠτͷڞ༗ Beacon Communications k.k. ଜా լ߂ ༷ 14:30 ʮσʔλ෼ੳͷຽओԽʯͷऔΓ૊Έʹ͍ͭͯ גࣜձࣾωΦΩϟϦΞ ླ໦ ւే༷ 14:45 ࣭ٙԠ౴ɾΫϩʔδϯά ΞδΣϯμ

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EXPLORATORY 204