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The Best Way to
Predict the Future is to
Issue a Press Release
Audrey Watters
@audreywatters
VCU, November 2016
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“Top Ed-Tech Trends”
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The History of the Future of Education Technology
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“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”
— Thomas Edison, 1913
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"In fifty years, there will be only ten institutions in
the world delivering higher education and Udacity
has a shot at being one of them.”
— Sebastian Thrun, 2012
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"In fifteen years from now, half of US universities
may be in bankruptcy. In the end I'm excited to see
that happen. So pray for Harvard Business School if
you wouldn't mind.” — Clayton Christensen, 2013
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Fantasies about the future of education
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Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the
hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.”
— Gartner, 2006
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I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
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Gartner Hype Cycle, 2016
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Some day…
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On the horizon…
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Again, I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
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12 Years of Higher Ed Horizon Reports
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Technology forecasting and wishful thinking
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“The best way to predict the future…”
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“Software is eating the world”
— Marc Andreessen, 2011
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The pace of technological change
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Technology as Myth
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Technology consumption is not innovation
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Mobile phones’ horizons
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Prediction as disruption, destabilization
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"65% of today's students will be employed in jobs that
don't exist yet.”
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“Before the end of this century, 70% of today's
occupations will be replaced by automation”
— Kevin Kelly, 2016
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Predicting the future as (technology) evangelism