The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release

Presented at VCU to a seminar co-sponsored by the Departments of Sociology and English

Transcript

1. The Best Way to
   Predict the Future is to
   Issue a Press Release
   Audrey Watters
   @audreywatters
   VCU, November 2016
   

   View Slide

2. “Top Ed-Tech Trends”
   

   View Slide

3. The History of the Future of Education Technology
   

   View Slide

4. “Books will soon be obsolete in schools”
   — Thomas Edison, 1913
   

   View Slide

5. "In fifty years, there will be only ten institutions in
   the world delivering higher education and Udacity
   has a shot at being one of them.”
   — Sebastian Thrun, 2012
   

   View Slide

6. "In fifteen years from now, half of US universities
   may be in bankruptcy. In the end I'm excited to see
   that happen. So pray for Harvard Business School if
   you wouldn't mind.” — Clayton Christensen, 2013
   

   View Slide

7. Fantasies about the future of education
   

   View Slide

8. Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the
   hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.”
   — Gartner, 2006
   

   View Slide

9. I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
   

   View Slide

10. Gartner Hype Cycle, 2016
    

    View Slide

11. Some day…
    

    View Slide

12. On the horizon…
    

    View Slide

13. Again, I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
    

    View Slide

14. 12 Years of Higher Ed Horizon Reports
    

    View Slide

15. Technology forecasting and wishful thinking
    

    View Slide

16. “The best way to predict the future…”
    

    View Slide

17. “Software is eating the world”
    — Marc Andreessen, 2011
    

    View Slide

18. The pace of technological change
    

    View Slide

19. Technology as Myth
    

    View Slide

20. View Slide

21. View Slide

22. View Slide

23. Technology consumption is not innovation
    

    View Slide

24. Mobile phones’ horizons
    

    View Slide

25. Prediction as disruption, destabilization
    

    View Slide

26. "65% of today's students will be employed in jobs that
    don't exist yet.”
    

    View Slide

27. “Before the end of this century, 70% of today's
    occupations will be replaced by automation”
    — Kevin Kelly, 2016
    

    View Slide

28. Predicting the future as (technology) evangelism
    

    View Slide