The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release

Transcript

1. The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue

   a Press Release Audrey Watters @audreywatters VCU, November 2016

2. “Top Ed-Tech Trends”

3. The History of the Future of Education Technology

4. “Books will soon be obsolete in schools” — Thomas Edison,

   1913

5. "In fifty years, there will be only ten institutions in

   the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them.” — Sebastian Thrun, 2012

6. "In fifteen years from now, half of US universities may

   be in bankruptcy. In the end I'm excited to see that happen. So pray for Harvard Business School if you wouldn't mind.” — Clayton Christensen, 2013

7. Fantasies about the future of education

8. Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the

   hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.” — Gartner, 2006

9. I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide

10. Gartner Hype Cycle, 2016

11. Some day…

12. On the horizon…

13. Again, I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide

14. 12 Years of Higher Ed Horizon Reports

15. Technology forecasting and wishful thinking

16. “The best way to predict the future…”

17. “Software is eating the world” — Marc Andreessen, 2011

18. The pace of technological change

19. Technology as Myth

20. None
21. None
22. None

23. Technology consumption is not innovation

24. Mobile phones’ horizons

25. Prediction as disruption, destabilization

26. "65% of today's students will be employed in jobs that

    don't exist yet.”

27. “Before the end of this century, 70% of today's occupations

    will be replaced by automation” — Kevin Kelly, 2016

28. Predicting the future as (technology) evangelism