The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release

Presented at VCU to a seminar co-sponsored by the Departments of Sociology and English

Transcript

1. The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release Audrey Watters @audreywatters VCU, November 2016
2. “Top Ed-Tech Trends”
3. The History of the Future of Education Technology
4. “Books will soon be obsolete in schools” — Thomas Edison, 1913
5. "In fifty years, there will be only ten institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them.” — Sebastian Thrun, 2012
6. "In fifteen years from now, half of US universities may be in bankruptcy. In the end I'm excited to see that happen. So pray for Harvard Business School if you wouldn't mind.” — Clayton Christensen, 2013
7. Fantasies about the future of education
8. Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.” — Gartner, 2006
9. I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
10. Gartner Hype Cycle, 2016
11. Some day…
12. On the horizon…
13. Again, I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
14. 12 Years of Higher Ed Horizon Reports
15. Technology forecasting and wishful thinking
16. “The best way to predict the future…”
17. “Software is eating the world” — Marc Andreessen, 2011
18. The pace of technological change
19. Technology as Myth
23. Technology consumption is not innovation
24. Mobile phones’ horizons
25. Prediction as disruption, destabilization
26. "65% of today's students will be employed in jobs that don't exist yet.”
27. “Before the end of this century, 70% of today's occupations will be replaced by automation” — Kevin Kelly, 2016
28. Predicting the future as (technology) evangelism