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The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release
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Audrey Watters
November 02, 2016
Education
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The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release
Presented at VCU to a seminar co-sponsored by the Departments of Sociology and English
Audrey Watters
November 02, 2016
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Transcript
The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue
a Press Release Audrey Watters @audreywatters VCU, November 2016
“Top Ed-Tech Trends”
The History of the Future of Education Technology
“Books will soon be obsolete in schools” — Thomas Edison,
1913
"In fifty years, there will be only ten institutions in
the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them.” — Sebastian Thrun, 2012
"In fifteen years from now, half of US universities may
be in bankruptcy. In the end I'm excited to see that happen. So pray for Harvard Business School if you wouldn't mind.” — Clayton Christensen, 2013
Fantasies about the future of education
Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the
hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.” — Gartner, 2006
I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
Gartner Hype Cycle, 2016
Some day…
On the horizon…
Again, I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide
12 Years of Higher Ed Horizon Reports
Technology forecasting and wishful thinking
“The best way to predict the future…”
“Software is eating the world” — Marc Andreessen, 2011
The pace of technological change
Technology as Myth
None
None
None
Technology consumption is not innovation
Mobile phones’ horizons
Prediction as disruption, destabilization
"65% of today's students will be employed in jobs that
don't exist yet.”
“Before the end of this century, 70% of today's occupations
will be replaced by automation” — Kevin Kelly, 2016
Predicting the future as (technology) evangelism