The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release

1c81fdcacf8ba6a9223b2876db3d0e0b?s=47 Audrey Watters
November 02, 2016

The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release

Presented at VCU to a seminar co-sponsored by the Departments of Sociology and English

1c81fdcacf8ba6a9223b2876db3d0e0b?s=128

Audrey Watters

November 02, 2016
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Transcript

  1. The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue

    a Press Release Audrey Watters @audreywatters VCU, November 2016
  2. “Top Ed-Tech Trends”

  3. The History of the Future of Education Technology

  4. “Books will soon be obsolete in schools” — Thomas Edison,

    1913
  5. "In fifty years, there will be only ten institutions in

    the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them.” — Sebastian Thrun, 2012
  6. "In fifteen years from now, half of US universities may

    be in bankruptcy. In the end I'm excited to see that happen. So pray for Harvard Business School if you wouldn't mind.” — Clayton Christensen, 2013
  7. Fantasies about the future of education

  8. Apple’s “best bet for long-term success is to quit the

    hardware business and license the Mac to Dell.” — Gartner, 2006
  9. I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide

  10. Gartner Hype Cycle, 2016

  11. Some day…

  12. On the horizon…

  13. Again, I apologize for the ugliness of the next slide

  14. 12 Years of Higher Ed Horizon Reports

  15. Technology forecasting and wishful thinking

  16. “The best way to predict the future…”

  17. “Software is eating the world” — Marc Andreessen, 2011

  18. The pace of technological change

  19. Technology as Myth

  20. None
  21. None
  22. None
  23. Technology consumption is not innovation

  24. Mobile phones’ horizons

  25. Prediction as disruption, destabilization

  26. "65% of today's students will be employed in jobs that

    don't exist yet.”
  27. “Before the end of this century, 70% of today's occupations

    will be replaced by automation” — Kevin Kelly, 2016
  28. Predicting the future as (technology) evangelism