ൃදऀ෢Ҫ༏ݾ ୈճ4&ݚڀൃදձ 7"3ϞσϧʹΑΔ044ϓϩδΣΫτ ಉ͕࢜ੜଘੑʹ༩͑ΔӨڹͷ෼ੳ ෢Ҫ༏ݾ גࣜձࣾJ%&",*55๺཮ઌ୺Պֶٕज़େֶӃେֶ ੨໦རߊ ๺཮ઌ୺Պֶٕज़େֶӃେֶ

ΞδΣϯμ ͸͡Ίʹ ؔ࿈ݚڀ ఏҊख๏ ࣮ݧͱ݁Ռ෼ੳ ·ͱΊ

͸͡Ίʹ

ੈքதͰ૿͑ଓ͚Δ044ͷ࢈ۀར༻ w 044͸ 0QFO4PVSDF4PGUXBSFͷུশ w 4ZOPQTZTͷௐࠪ<>ʹΑΕ͹ɺۀքʹΘͨΔ Ҏ্ͷ঎༻ίʔυϕʔ εͷ͏ͪɺ͕044Λ࠾༻͍ͯͨ͜͠ͱ͕ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔ w ΠΪϦεͰ࡞੒͞Εͨ044ʹؔ͢Δใࠂॻ<>Ͱ͸ ௐࠪʹڠྗͨ͠ຽؒاۀ ެతػؔͷ͏͕ͪࣾ಺Ͱ044Λ࠾༻͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͕ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔ <>4ZOPQTZT 01&/4063$&4&$63*5:"/%3*4,"/"-:4*43&1035 <>6, 04UBUFPG0QFO1IBTF5XP

044ϓϩδΣΫτͷੜଘੑ w ଟ͘ͷ044ϓϩδΣΫτ͸ɺ͔ͭͯਓؾΛത ͨ͠΋ͷͰ΋௕ଓ͖͠ͳ͍ w 4PVSDF'PSHFதͷ໿ ͷϓϩδΣΫ τͷ͏ͪ ໿͕*OBDUJWF͔೥׆ಈͳ͠ͱ ͍͏ݚڀ݁Ռ<> ӈਤ ্ஈ w 044ϓϩδΣΫτͷฏۉతͳੜଘظؒ<> ӈਤ Լஈ "HFࢀর <>+ZNJU,IPOEIV "OESFB$BQJMVQQJ ,+4*T*U"MM-PTU "4UVEZPG*OBDUJWF0QFO4PVSDF1SPKFDUT <>$PFMIP +BOE7BMFOUF .58IZNPEFSOPQFOTPVSDFQSPKFDUTGBJM ⾣ 044͕։ൃΛ΍ΊΔͱ ϝϯςͷҾ͖ܧ͗΍ଞͷιϑτ΢ΣΞ ΁ͷஔ͖׵͕͑ඞཁͱͳΓ اۀ΍։ൃऀʹͱͬͯ͸ෛ୲૿ˢ

044ϓϩδΣΫτͷӫރ੝ਰ w 044ͷੜଘੑΛߟ͑Δ͏͑Ͱ ࣾձͷมֵ΍ٕज़ֵ৽ʹΑΔ ιϑτ΢ΣΞτϨϯυͷมԽͱ͍͏؍఺͸ແࢹͰ͖ͳ͍ w 044ϓϩδΣΫτͷࣦഊཁҼ͸༷ʑ͋Δ͕ɺʮڧྗͳڝ߹ͷ ग़ݱʯ΍ʮ௠෗Խʯ͕࠷େͷཁҼͰ͋Δͱ͍͏ௐࠪ݁Ռ<> w ӈਤ͸ɺͭͷਂ૚ֶशϑϨʔϜϫʔΫͷ݄ؒίϛοτ਺ͷ ਪҠͷൺֱ$IBJOFS͸೥݄ʹ৽ن։ൃΛఀࢭ͠ɺ શࣾతʹ1Z5PSDI΁ͷҠߦΛද໌<> ⾣ڝ߹ͷ୆಄ʹΑΔఫୀͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ w 8FC։ൃ΍ਂ૚ֶशͳͲͷ෼໺Ͱ͸ੈ୅ަ୅ͷεϐʔυ͕ ଎͍௕ظతͳ։ൃઓུͷݟ௨͠ͷͨΊ ࠾༻தͷ044͕Ͳ ͷΑ͏ͳཱͪҐஔ͔Λ஌Δ͜ͱ͕ॏཁͳ࣌୅ $IBJOFSͷ৽ػೳ։ൃఀࢭ࣌ࠁ ೥͔Β೥ʹ͔͚ͯɺ$IBJOFSͷίϛ οτ਺͸ٸམҰํ 1Z5PSDI͸ӈݞ্͕Γʹ੒ ௕͓ͯ͠Γ $IBJOFSͷ׆ಈྔͷ௿ԼʹӨڹΛ༩ ͍͑ͯΔΑ͏ͳνϟʔτͰ͋Δ <>$PFMIP +BOE7BMFOUF .58IZNPEFSOPQFOTPVSDFQSPKFDUTGBJM <>1SFGFSSFE/FUXPSLT1SFGFSSFE/FUXPSLT.JHSBUFTJUT%FFQ-FBSOJOH3FTFBSDI1MBUGPSNUP1Z5PSDI ਤͭͷਂ૚ֶशϑϨʔϜϫʔΫͷ݄ؒίϛοτ਺ͷਪҠ

ຊݚڀͷ໨త B A C Өڹେ Өڹখ ʓʓͷΑ͏ͳ৚ ݅Λຬͨ͢ͱ 3&7͕ൃੜ͠ ΍͍͢ ࣌ܥྻσʔλಉ࢜ͷ Өڹ౓ΛఆྔԽ Өڹͷେ͖͞΍ํ޲ɺ ఻ൖͷ࢓ํΛ෼ੳ ݁࿦ 044ϓϩδΣΫτͷ׆ಈྔΛද࣌͢ܥྻσʔλ ˞ʮڝ߹044ͷ୆಄ʹΑΓɺطଘ044ͷੜଘੑ͕௿Լʯ͢Δ͜ͱΛ3&7 3JTJOH&WFOU ͱݺͿ 3&7ͷൃੜϝΧχζϜͷ෼ੳख๏ΛߟҊ͠ɺ3&7ͷஹީΛൃݟ͢Δ ⾣3&7ʹΑΓ։ൃ͕ఀࢭͦ͠͏ͳ044ϓϩδΣΫτͷૣظൃݟʹ໾ཱͯΔ

ؔ࿈ݚڀ

w ੜଘ෼ੳΛ༻͍ͯ 044ϓϩδΣΫτͷੜଘੑʹد༩͢Δཁ ҼΛݟ͚ͭΔݚڀ<> w 044ϓϩδΣΫτ಺෦ͷ׆ྗ ճ෮ྗ ૊৫ྗΛجʹੜଘೳ ྗΛࣔ͢ࢦ਺7* 7JBCMJUZ *OEFY Λߏ੒͢Δݚڀ<> w .-1Λ༻͍ͯ044ϓϩδΣΫτͷण໋༧ଌΛߦ͏ݚڀ<> ઌߦݚڀͱຊݚڀͷࠩ෼ ಺తཁҼʹج͍ͮͨ044ͷੜଘੑͷݚڀ ֎తཁҼʹج͍ͮͨ044ͷੜଘੑͷݚڀ w ιϑτ΢ΣΞੜଶܥʢ044ͷґଘؔ܎ωοτϫʔ Ϋʣʹண໨͠ ωοτϫʔΫ্ͷؔ܎ੑ͕044ͷੜ ଘੑʹ༩͑ΔӨڹΛ෼ੳͨ͠ݚڀ<> ⾣͜ΕΒͷݚڀ͔Β 044ͷ࣋ଓతͳ׆ಈӡӦʹد༩͢Δม ਺Λൃݟ͠ 044ͷੜଘੑΛ༧ଌ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Մೳͱͳͬͨͨ ͩ͠ ʮڝ߹ͷ୆಄ͳͲͷ044ΛऔΓר͘؀ڥͷมԽʯ͕ߟ ྀ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ ⾣֎తཁҼΛѻ͏ݚڀͱ͍͏ҙຯͰ͸ํ޲ੑ͕ࣅ͍ͯΔ ͕ ຊݚڀͰѻ͏֎෦ཁҼ͸ʮڝ߹ͷ୆಄ʯͰ͋ΔͨΊ ݚڀͷझࢫ͕ҟͳΔ ⾣ઌߦݚڀͱͷࠩ෼͸ 044ͷੜଘੑͷධՁ࣠ʹʮ࣌ؒܦաʹ൐͏ڝ߹͔ΒͷӨڹʯͱ͍ ͏֎తཁҼΛՃ͑Δ͜ͱ [7] Samoladas, I., Angelis, L. and Stamelos, I.: Survival analysis on the duration of open source projects [8] Raja, U. and Tretter, M. J.: Defining and Evaluating a Measure of Open Source Project Survivability [9] Eluri, V. K., Sarkani, S. and Mazzuchi, T.: Open Source Software Survivability Prediction Using Multi Layer Perceptron [10] Valiev, M.: External Factors in Sustainability of Open Source Software ˞֎తཁҼͱ͸ ڝ߹ͷ୆಄΍Ϗδωε౎߹ͷٸͳఫୀͱ ͍ͬͨ਺஋Խ͕೉͍͠΋ͷ ˞಺తཁҼͱ͸ 044ϓϩδΣΫτ಺෦ͷ׆ಈ͔ΒಘΒΕΔσʔλ ΍౷ܭ஋ ίʔυϝτϦΫε౳ͷ਺஋Խ͕ൺֱత༰қͳ΋ͷ

ຊݚڀͷΞϓϩʔν w ຊݚڀͰ͸ ڝ߹044ͷ࣌ؒతͳӨڹͷมԽΛఆྔԽ͢Δͷʹɺ7"3Ϟσϧ ʹجͮ͘ ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺Λ༻͍Δ w ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺͸ ϚΫϩܦࡁֶͰΑ͘ར༻͞ΕΔ΋ͷͰ ͋Δܦࡁม ਺ʹγϣοΫΛ༩͑ͨ৔߹ʹ ͦΕ͕ͦͷଞͷܦࡁม਺ʹͲͷΑ͏ʹ఻ൖ͢ Δ͔Λ෼ੳ͢Δಓ۩Ͱ͋Δ w ͜ΕΛ044ͷݴ༿ʹஔ͖׵͑Δͱ ͋Δ044ϓϩδΣΫτͷ׆ಈྔʹγϣο ΫΛ༩͑ͨͱ͖ʢಥવͷ׆ಈྔͷ૿Ճʣ ͦͷଞͷڝ߹ϓϩδΣΫτͷ׆ ಈྔʹͲͷΑ͏ͳӨڹΛ༩͑Δ͔ʁΛߟ͑Δ͜ͱʹͳΔ

ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺ͷར༻ྫ w Ԡ༻ྫͷҰͭʹ தԝۜߦ͕ۚརΛมಈͤ͞ ͨ৔߹ʹͦΕ͕֤ܦࡁม਺ʹͲͷΑ͏ͳӨڹ Λٴ΅͔͢Λ෼ੳ w ӈਤ͸ όϒϧલޙͷۚ༥؇࿨γϣοΫʹର ͢Δ֤ܦࡁม਺ͷΠϯύϧεԠ౴Λฒ΂ͨਤ ⾣શମతʹɺۚ༥੓ࡦͷޮՌ͸ɺόϒϧલͱ ൺ΂ͯɺόϒϧޙʹେ͖͘ݮୀ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ ͕ಡΈऔΕΔ ࢀߟਢ߹ஐ޿ חా߁Ұ࿠੓ࡦۚརθϩ੍໿Լʹ͓͚Δۚ༥੓ࡦޮՌͷநग़ɼ೔ຊۜߦϫʔΩϯάϖʔύʔγϦʔζ

ఏҊख๏

ఏҊख๏ w .*"0 .VUVBM*NQBDU"OBMZTJTPG044 w 7"3ϞσϧͱΠϯύϧεԠ౴Λ༻͍ͯ044ಉ࢜ͷӨڹΛఆྔԽ͢Δख๏ w 3*" 3JTJOH*NQBDU"OBMZTJT w .*"0ͷग़ྗΛ͍͔ͭ͘ͷಛ௃ྔʹॖ໿͠ ݁ՌͷൺֱΛ༰қʹ͢Δख๏ ఏҊख๏͸େ͖͘෼͚ͯҎԼͷͭ

.*"0ͷ֓ཁ w ͋Δ044ͷ׆ಈྔʹγϣοΫΛ༩͑ͨࡍʹ ͦͷଞͷ044ͷ׆ಈྔ͸ͲͷΑ ͏ʹมԽ͢Δ͔ΛݟΔ΋ͷ w ͜͜Ͱ͍͏γϣοΫͱ͸ ྫ͑͹ ڝ߹044ͷίϛοτ਺ͷ༧ظͤ͵૿ՃͳͲ ͕֘౰͢Δ w γϣοΫΛ༩͑ͨ݁Ռ 044"ͷ׆ಈྔͷ૿ՃͰ044#ͷ׆ಈྔ͕ݮগ͢Δ ͳͲͷؔ܎͕࣌ؒܦաʹ൐͍ݦஶʹͳΔ৔߹ "ͷ୆಄ʹΑΓ#ͷੜଘੑ͕௿ Լͨ͠ͱ൑அ

7"3Ϟσϧ͸"3 "VUP3FHSFTTJPO ϞσϧΛଟมྔʹ֦ுͨ͠΋ͷͰ ෳ਺ͷ࣌ܥྻؒͷؔ܎Λ ʢճؼ෼ੳʹΑΓʣߟྀ͠ ͦΕͧΕͷ࣌ܥྻͷݱࡏͷ஋Λ༧ଌ͢ΔϞσϧͰ͋Δྫ͑͹ ͭͷ࣌ ܥྻͱϥάΛͱͯ͠ઃఆͨ͠มྔ7"3 Ϟσϧ͸࣍ͷΑ͏ʹఆࣜԽ͞ΕΔ 7"3ϞσϧʢϕΫτϧࣗݾճؼϞσϧʣ ࢀߟ: ԭຊཽٛ: ܦࡁɾϑΝΠφϯεσʔλͷܭྔ࣌ܥྻ෼ੳɼ ே૔ॻళ (2023). ɾD@J͸ఆ਺ Ї@J͸܎਺ߦྻͰ࣌ܥྻσʔλʹର͢Δ0-4Ͱਪఆ ɾЏ@KU͸֧ཚ߲ʢޡ߲ࠩʣ ɾ֬཰ม਺ͱͯ͠Έ֧ͨཚ߲Џ@U͸ϗϫΠτϊΠζͱͯ͠෼෍ ⾣OมྔͰQ࣍ͷϥάΛߟྀͨ͠7"3Ϟσϧ͸ҎԼͷࣜͰҰൠԽͰ͖Δ

ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺ *NQVMTF3FTQPOTF'VODUJPO *3' ࢀߟ: ԭຊཽٛ: ܦࡁɾϑΝΠφϯεσʔλͷܭྔ࣌ܥྻ෼ੳɼ ே૔ॻళ (2023). ˞ݪߘͷ*3'ͷࣜ͸ޡΓͰ͋ΔͨΊ஫ҙݪߘͷ࠷ऴϖʔδͷਖ਼ޡදʹਖ਼͍ࣜ͠ͱઆ໌͕͋Δ ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺͸ 7"3Ϟσϧͷ֧ཚ߲Џ@UʹγϣοΫΛ༩͑ͨͱ͖ͷ֤ม਺ͷ൓ԠΛࣔ͢ ؔ਺Ͱ ҎԼͷภඍ෼ͰදݱͰ͖Δ w *3'͸ೖྗม਺ͷ࣍ݩΛOͱ͢Δͱ O✕Oݸͷ૊Έ߹Θ͕ͤ͋Δ ʢӈਤ͸"#$ͱ͍͏ͭͷ࣌ܥྻ͔ΒYͷ*3'͕ಘΒΕΔྫʣ w ͦΕͧΕ "#$͍ͣΕ͔ͷ֧ཚ߲ʹ୯ҐͷγϣοΫΛՃ͑ͨͱ͖ ͷ"#$͍ͣΕ͔ͷ൓ԠΛࣔ͢άϥϑͷԣ͕࣠Lʢ࣌ؒʣʹରԠ w ৄࡉ͸ׂѪ͢Δ͕ ຊݚڀͰ͸ ௚ަԽΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺Λར༻ ʢৄࡉ͸"QQFOEJYʹهࡌʣ

.*"0ͷೖྗͱग़ྗ w .*"0ͷೖྗ͸ΞΫςΟϏςΟ࣌ܥྻσʔλͱݺ͹ΕΔ 044ͷ׆ಈ͔ΒಘΒΕΔ࣌ܥྻσʔλʢӈਤ ্ஈʣ w .*"0ͷग़ྗ͸ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ʢӈਤ தஈʣͱ ྦྷੵΠ ϯύϧεԠ౴ʢӈਤ Լஈʣ w ࣌ؒܦաʹΑΔӨڹΛௐ΂͍ͨͷͰ ͜ΕΒͷೖग़ྗΛෳ ਺ظؒʹ͍ͭͯߦ͏ ΞΫςΟϏςΟ࣌ܥྻσʔλͷҰྫ ίϛοτ਺ͷਪҠ೔ ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺ͷҰྫ ྦྷੵΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺ͷҰྫ

.*"0ͷ؆୯ͳΠϝʔδ ೥ ೥ ׆ಈྔ 5 5 5 *3' ྫ044" # $ͷ׆ಈྔʹ͍ͭͯ $ #ͷ׆ಈྔ͕γϣοΫ୯ҐมԽͨ͠ࡍͷ"ͷ׆ಈྔͷ൓Ԡ ⾣࣌ؒܦաʹΑΔΠϯύϧεԠ౴ʹͲͷΑ͏ͳมԽ͕͋Δ͔ʁ

˞ΞϧΰϦζϜͷৄࡉ͸ ࿦จϖʔδʹهࡌ w ӈਤ͸.*"0ͷ؆қతͳΞϧΰϦζϜͷϑϩʔ w ΞΫςΟϏςΟ࣌ܥྻσʔλͷྻΛूΊͨྻ"͸ "@<044"ͷΞΫςΟϏςΟ࣌ܥྻσʔλ> "@<044#ͷΞΫςΟϏςΟ࣌ܥྻσʔλ> ͷΑ͏ͳෳ਺ͷ"@J͔ΒͳΔ "<"@ "@> w ظؒྻΛूΊͨྻ5͸ 5@< ʜ > 5@< ʜ > ͷΑ͏ͳෳ਺ͷ5@N͔ΒͳΔ 5<5@ 5@> w ΞϧΰϦζϜதͷ"`@J͸"@Jͷ෦෼ྻͰ "@Ͱ͋Ε͹ 044"ͷ ͔Βؒͷ׆ಈྔ ͷਪҠΛऔΓग़ͨ͠΋ͷͱͳΔ .*"0ͷ؆қతͳΞϧΰϦζϜ

3*" 3JTJOH*NQBDU"OBMZTJT ͷ֓ཁ w .*"0Ͱ͸ ೖྗม਺ͷ਺Oͱ5@Nͷ ਺NʹԠͯ͡ɺO✕O✕Nݸ෼ͷ*3' ྦྷੵ*3'͕ಘΒΕΔʢӈਤ্ஈʣ w Αͬͯ ໨ࢹධՁ͕େม w ֤ظؒͷΠϯύϧεԠ౴ ྦྷੵΠϯ ύϧεԠ౴͔Βಛ௃ྔΛநग़͠ ͦ ΕΒͷൺֱΛ΋ͬͯɺ044ಉ࢜ͷ ӨڹΛධՁ͢Δ w ͦͷಛ௃ྔΛநग़͢Δ޻ఔΛ3*"ͱ ݺͼ 3*"දͱݺ͹ΕΔදʹ݁ՌΛ ·ͱΊΔʢӈਤԼஈʣ ৘ใΛॖ໿ .*"0ͷ݁ՌΠϯύϧεԠ౴ .*"0ͷ݁ՌྦྷੵΠϯύϧεԠ౴ 3*"ද

3*"ද 5 5 $7 17 1, 4$& $7 17 1, 4$& "" 1 1 "# / / ## 1 1 #" 1 1 ྫ" #ͱ͍͏࣌ܥྻʹؔͯ͠ 5 5ͷಛ௃ྔͷਪҠΛද͢Սۭͷ3*"ද 17͸QFBLWBVFͰ ϐʔΫͷ஋ 1,͸ϐʔΫ·ͰͷظؒͰ 17Λ औΔࡍͷ9࣠ͷ஋ $7͸*3'ͷมಈ܎਺ ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ ྦྷੵΠϯύϧεԠ౴ 4$&1 4$&/ 4$&͸ྦྷੵతͳӨڹΛද͢ ஋ྦྷੵ*3'ͷऩଋ஋ͷූ߸͕ ਖ਼ͳΒ1 1PTJUJWF ෛͳΒ / /FHBUJWF wॎ࣠ͷ" #͸ͦΕͧΕɺ࣌ܥྻ" #Λද͢"#ͷͱ͖ " ͔Β#΁ͷӨڹΛҙຯ͢Δ wԣ࣠ͷϔομʔ͸ஈͰ ֤5@Nຖʹͭͷಛ௃ྔʢӈϖʔδ Ͱઆ໌ʣ͕ηοτͰฒͿ5 5ͱӈʹߦ͘΄Ͳ͕࣌ؒਐΉ wྫ "#ͷ4$&͸5Ͱ/ 5Ͱ/ͱਪҠ͢Δ͜ͱ͔Β "͔ Β#΁ͷӨڹ͸5 5Λ௨ͯ͠ෛͷӨڹͰ͋Δ͕ ٯͷ#" ͸1 1Ͱ͋Δ͔ΒӨڹ͸ਖ਼ͭ·Γ ෛͷӨڹ͸ҰํతͰ͋Δ ͱಡΈऔΕΔ

࣮ݧͱ݁Ռ෼ੳ

࣮ݧʹ͍ͭͯ • ࣮ݧͷ໨త͸ 3&7ͱ͍͏ࣄ৅Λ.*"0 3*"͕આ໌Ͱ͖Δ͜ͱΛݕূ͢Δ͜ͱ • ۩ମతʹ͸ 3&7ର৅ͷ044ͷ੒௕ظ͔Β຅མظؚ͕·ΕΔظؒʹ͓͍ͯ .*"0͓Α ͼ3*"͕຅མͱ͍͏ࣄ৅Λଊ͑ ͔ͭ຅མҎલͷظؒʹ3&7ͷஹީ͕ݱΕΔ͔Λݕূ ͢Δ͜ͱ • લड़ͷ1Z5PSDIͷ୆಄ʹΑΔ$IBJOFSͷఫୀΛ3&7ͱԾఆ͠ $IBJOFS 1Z5PSDI 5FOTPS'MPXͷϓϩδΣΫτΛ࣮ݧର৅ʹબग़ w ֤044ͷ೔࣍ͷίϛοτ਺ͷਪҠ˞Λ.*"0ͷೖྗ"@Jͱͯ͠ར༻ ʢίϛοτϩά͸(JU)VCϨϙδτϦ͔Βऔಘʣ ˞ίϛοτ਺ͷਪҠ͸ ଟ͘ͷݚڀͰੜଘੑͷ൑ఆʹར༻͞Ε͍ͯΔ

࣮ݧͷઃఆ w ظؒ͸ ೥݄͔Β೥݄·ͰΛ ର৅ʹ ҎԼʹઃఆ 5@< ʜ > 5@< ʜ > 5@< ʜ > 5@< ʜ > w $IBJOFSʹ͓͍ͯ 5@ 5@͕੒௕ظ 5@ ͕ٸམظ 5@͕৽ن։ൃఀࢭظ $IBJOFS 5FOTPS'MPX 1Z5PSDI 𝑻𝟏 𝑻𝟐 𝑻𝟑 𝑻𝟒

࣮ݧ݁Ռ 5 5 5 5 1Z5PSDI$IBJOFS / / / / 1Z5PSDI5FOTPS'MPX 1 1 1 1 $IBJOFS1Z5PSDI 1 1 1 / $IBJOFS5FOTPS'MPX 1 1 1 / 5FOTPS'MPX$IBJOFS / 1 1 / 5FOTPS'MPX1Z5PSDI / 1 1 1 3*"ද͔Β4$&ͷਪҠΛൈ͖ग़ͨ͠ද w ͭͷಛ௃ྔͷ͏ͪ ࠷΋ಛ௃తͳ΋ͷ͸4$&ͷਪҠ ͱͳͬͨӈਤ͸3*"ද͔Β4$&Λൈ͖ग़ͨ͠΋ͷ ʢશମͷ3*"ද͸"QQFOEJYʹܝࡌʣ w 1Z5PSDI $IBJOFSͷΈ શظؒͰ/ͰਪҠ͠ ಛҟ ͳ݁Ռͱͳͬͨ w ҰํͰ $IBJOFS͔Β1Z5PSDI΁ͷӨڹ͸5Ҏ֎1 ͭ·Γ ٯํ޲ͷӨڹ͸ਖ਼ํ޲ w 5FOTPS'MPX$IBJOFSͷ4$&͸/ 1 1 /Ͱ͋Γ 5ͷίϛοτ਺ͷٸམ΁ͷد༩Λ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ w 5FOTPS'MPXͱ1Z5PSDI͸૒ํ޲ʹਖ਼ͷӨڹΛ༩͑ ߹͍ͬͯΔ ˞ $IBJOFS͕ؔ࿈͢Δ4$&͸5Ͱ͢΂ͯ/ͱͳͬͯ ͓Γ ίϛοτ਺͕ۃ୺ʹ௿͍࣌ܥྻΛؚΊΔͱ4$& ͕/ʹͳΓ΍͍͢܏޲ͱͳΔ͜ͱ͕ಡΈऔΕΔ

4$&Ҏ֎ͷಛ௃ྔʹؔͯ͠ w 4$&ͱൺֱ͠ $7 17 1,͔Β͸ ໌֬ʹ༗ӹͳ৘ใ͕ಘΒΕͳ͔ͬͨ w ͨͩ͠ 1ZUPSDI$IBJOFSͰ͸ 5Ҏ߱ϐʔΫͷ౸ୡ͕࣌ؒͱͳͬͨ w ͜Ε͸ 3&7͕ى͜ΔࡍͷӨڹ͸ଈ࠲ʹ఻ൖ͢Δ͜ͱΛࣔࠦ͢Δ w ඪຊ਺Λ૿΍࣮ͯ͠ݧΛߦ͏͜ͱͰ ͜ͷԾઆͷਅ൱΍ ͦͷଞͷಛ௃ྔͷ ༗ޮੑΛ֬ೝ͍ͯ͘͠

࣮ݧ݁Ռʹؔ͢Δߟ࡯ Chainer Pytorch Tensorflow w 4$&ͷਪҠ͔Β 1ZUPSDI͸$IBJOFSʹ࣋ଓతʹ /FHBUJWFͳӨڹΛ༩͍͑ͯΔ΋ͷͷ ͦΕҎ֎ͷ 044ؒͷӨڹ͸֓Ͷ૬ޓతʹ1PTJUJWFͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕ ෼͔ͬͨ w ͜Ε͸࣮ݧͷ໨తʹଈͨ݁͠ՌͰ͋Γ 1ZUPSDI͕ $IBJOFSͷੜଘੑ௿Լʹد༩ͨ͠ࣄ࣮ͱҰக͢Δ w ͭ·Γ .*"0 3*"ʹΑΓ3&7ͷൃੜΛଊ͑ΒΕΔ ͜ͱΛࣔࠦ Negative

3*"͔ΒಘΒΕΔ3&7ͷஹީ ࣮ݧ݁Ռ͔Β 3&7͕ى͜ΔࡍʹҎԼͷஹީ͕͋Δ͜ͱ͕Θ͔ͬͨҎԼͰ ͸ 3&7Λൃੜͤ͞Δର৅Λ$ ඃ3&7ର৅Λ5ͱදه͢Δ * 5ͷ׆ಈྔ͕ٸམ͢ΔΑΓ΋Ҏલͷ೥౓͔Β େ͖ͳෛͷӨڹΛ ༩͑ଓ͚͍ͯΔڝ߹$͕͍Δ͜ͱ * 5ͷ੒௕ظ͸ͦͷଞͷڝ߹ΑΓ΋$͔ΒͷෛͷӨڹ͕ڧ͘ͳΔ͜ͱ * 5͔Β$΁ͷ3*"ͷಛ௃ྔ͸ਖ਼ͷӨڹΛࣔ͢͜ͱ ⾣ͦͷଞͷ044ʹؔͯ͠ಉ༷ͷ෼ੳΛߦͬͨࡍʹ * * * Λຬͨ͢$ ͕͍ͨ৔߹ ͦΕ͸কདྷͷ։ൃఀࢭͷαΠϯͱͳΔ͔΋͠Εͳ͍

·ͱΊ

·ͱΊ w .*"0 3*"ʹΑΓ ࣌ؒܦաʹ൐͏ෳ਺ͷ044ಉ͕࢜ੜଘੑʹ༩͑ΔӨڹΛఆྔ Խ͠ ͦΕΒΛൺֱՄೳʹͨ͠ w ࣮σʔλΛ༻͍࣮ͨݧ͔Β 3&7ͷஹީΛൃݟͰ͖ͨ w ҰํͰ ࣮ݧର৅͕ݶఆతͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕՝୊ w ඪຊ਺͕গͳ͘ຊݚڀͰࣔͤͨͷ͸ 3&7ͷ΄ΜͷҰ෦෼Ͱ͋ΔՄೳੑ͕ߴ͍ w ࠓޙ͸ඪຊ਺Λ૿΍࣮ͯ͠ݧΛߦ͍ ҰൠੑΛ࣋ͬͨ݁࿦Λఏ͍ࣔͯ͘͠

"QQFOEJY

࣮ݧ݁Ռ ࠨ*3' ӈྦྷੵ*3' ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ ྦྷੵΠϯύϧεԠ౴

3*"ද ࣮ݧ݁Ռ͔ΒಘΒΕͨ3*"ද

ΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺ͷܭࢉաఔ 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 ⌃ = V ar(✏t) = ✓ 4 1.2 1.2 1 ◆ ·ͣɺมྔ7"3 ͕࣍ͷΑ͏ʹਪఆ͞Ε͍ͯΔͱ͢Δ ʢ֧ཚ߲ͷ෼ࢄڞ෼ࢄߦྻʣ *3' *3' *3' ͸࣍ͷΑ͏ʹஞ࣍తʹܭࢉͰ͖Δ ࢀߟจݙ: ԭຊཽٛ: ܦࡁɾϑΝΠφϯεσʔλͷܭྔ࣌ܥྻ෼ੳɼ ே૔ॻళ (2023).

௚ަԽΠϯύϧεԠ౴ؔ਺ ˞ຊݚڀͰ͸ 1ZUIPOͷTUBUTNPEFMTΛ༻͍ͯ0*3'Λܭࢉ͍ͯ͠ΔͨΊ ࡾ֯෼ղͷ୅ΘΓʹίϨεΩʔ෼ ղ͕༻͍ΒΕΔίϨεΩʔ෼ղͷৄࡉʹ͍ͭͯ͸ࢀߟจݙΛࢀর 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 ( y1t = 1 + 0.6y1,t 1 + 0.3y2,t 1 + ✏1t y2t = 1 + 0.1y1,t 1 + 0.9y2,t 1 + ✏2t AAACM3icbVDLSgMxFM3UVx1fVZdugkWpmzJT6mNTKOhCXFW0D+iUkklv29BMZkgyYhn6T278EReCuFDErf9g+kB8HQg5Ofdccu/xI86UdpwnKzU3v7C4lF62V1bX1jcym1s1FcaSQpWGPJQNnyjgTEBVM82hEUkggc+h7g9Ox/X6DUjFQnGthxG0AtITrMso0UZqZy68K9YLCC7hGpE5DyLFuNH1AS55PvSYSKKAaMluR3YR72M3X8CeZ48v87A9EJ0vQzuTdfLOBPgvcWcki2aotDMPXiekcQBCU06UarpOpFsJkZpRDiPbixVEhA5ID5qGChKAaiWTnUd4zygd3A2lOULjifq9IyGBUsPAN04zX1/9ro3F/2rNWHdPWgkTUaxB0OlH3ZhjHeJxgLjDJFDNh4YQKpmZFdM+kYRqE7NtQnB/r/yX1Ap59yh/eFnMls9mcaTRDtpFOeSiY1RG56iCqoiiO/SIXtCrdW89W2/W+9SasmY92+gHrI9PLXKnnA== ⌃ = V ar(✏t) = ✓ 4 1.2 1.2 1 ◆ ௨ৗͷ*3'Ͱ͸ ֧ཚ߲ಉ࢜ͷ૬ؔΛແࢹ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͕໰୊ͦ͜Ͱ ֧ཚ߲Λޓ͍ʹ ແ૬ؔͳ΋ͷʹ෼ղ͢Δ۩ମతʹ͸ ֧ཚ߲ͷ෼ࢄڞ෼ࢄߦྻΛࡾ֯෼ղͯ͠ ௚ަԽ͢Δ ௚ަԽ ௚ަԽ͞Ε֧ͨཚ߲ʹΑΔ7"3͸࣍ͷΑ͏ʹมԽ͢Δͭ·Γ γϣοΫΛ༩͑Δ֧ཚ߲͸V@UʹมԽ͢Δ ࢀߟจݙ: ԭຊཽٛ: ܦࡁɾϑΝΠφϯεσʔλͷܭྔ࣌ܥྻ෼ੳɼ ே૔ॻళ (2023). ʢ֧ཚ߲ͷ෼ࢄڞ෼ࢄߦྻʣ ʢ௚ަԽʹΑΓର֯ߦྻͱͳͬͨ෼ࢄڞ෼ࢄߦྻʣ