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Alexander BYNDYU IT-architect Byndyusoft Experience: Author of the book 'Antifragile in IT,' Methodologist, Expert in Agile and Lean, Mentor, Life Coach Owner and IT Architect at Byndyusoft About me:

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Hypothesis Mapping Strategic Planning Method

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Alexey Pimenov Alexander is the 'father' of Impact Mapping in Russia On neural networks in IT, selling developers, and what clients want Video

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9 years of Impact Map practice I will tell you about Impact Mapping, but not exactly like Gojko, there are some nuances...

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Method Genesis Effect Map Mijo Balic, Ingrid Ottersten, 2007 Hypothesis Map Alexander Byndyu, 2023 • • → Impact Map Gojko Adzic, 2012 • • • • →

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Plan 1. Map structure 2. Creating a map through an example 3. Stages of working with the Map 4. FAQ 5. Why does business need a Hypothesis Map? 6. What to do today?

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1. Map Structure

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1. Goal Future-oriented question: "By what criteria will we determine project success at the end?” Good practices: 1. Show the difference: "The goal is 200K users, it’s currently 10K" 2. Described using SMART criteria 3. Objectives inspire the team and the entrepreneur Antipattern: Tasks instead of goals — "Create a platform."

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2. Subject Whose lives do we want to change by implementing the hypothesis, so that the change in their lives leads us to our goal? Good practices: 1. Choose the level of abstraction that is useful for you: "Ivan Petrovich, Market Director," "Men, aged 30-40, average income...," "Auto service station with a turnover..." 2. Conduct Customer Development (CusDev) 3. Create Jobs to be Done 4. Select a group you can genuinely influence Antipattern: Insert performers — "frontend developers," "our company's lawyers."

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3. Hypothesis — Key Element of the Map The idea through which we intend to change the subject's behavior. Good practices: 1. Answers the question "Why the thing, that we are about to do, will work out?" 2. Described in a specific format 3. Has content that is logically validated

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Hypothesis Format If [and and ...], then , because

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Example: Hypothesis of a Conference Organizer

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Antipattern when describing a hypothesis Describing actions or impacts as in the original Impact Map: — Referral program — More calls — More frequent website visits — Promotions and discounts — Special offers These are tacit knowledge, and they do not reveal the essence of the idea.

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4. Task for Hypothesis Validation A list of tasks through which we will validate our hypotheses. Good practices: 1. Tasks should be actions aimed at validation, completing which we can validate the hypothesis 2. The level of the task is determined by the level of the hypothesis: the task can be a User Story or even a whole project 3. Tasks are organized in order 4. Descriptions are business-friendly and clear. Antipattern: Overly detailed descriptions oriented toward execution. Avoid trying to write a detailed technical specification through tasks.

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2. Creating a Map through an Example

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The Parable of the Potter There once lived an old potter. He made pots, sold them at the market, and made a living from it. But some neighborhood boys took to breaking his pots. He asked them not to do it, begged, scolded, complained to their parents — nothing helped...

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The Parable of the Potter ...So he called the boys into his yard and told them that he would pay them a ruble for every broken pot. The boys were delighted, smashed all the pots, got their money, and ran away. The next day, the potter said he didn't have much money, he could only pay 50 kopecks. The boys broke all the pots again, got their money, and ran off. The same thing happened the next day, but this time, the potter could only pay 20 kopecks for each broken pot. The following morning, the kids came back to the yard. The old man went out to them and said, "I have almost no money left now because I had nothing to sell. Now, for each broken pot, I can only pay one kopeck." The boys were outraged, "You found fools to break your pots for free!". They never broke any more pots.

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3. Stages of Working with the Map

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Stages of Working with the Map 1. Creating the Map 2. Validation 3. Prioritization 4. Using the Map in work 5. Learning from feedback loop

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1. Creating the Map Points 1-5 can be done in any order: 1. Specify the goal 2. Identify the subjects 3. Describe the hypotheses strictly according to the format 4. Write down the main tasks for each hypothesis 5. Establish connections between all elements 6. Repeat points 1-5 in any order, constantly rephrasing everything written, and rebuild the map with a new understanding Important: 1. Facilitation skills for analytical sessions 2. Availability of experts who have a deep understanding of the subject matter

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2.1. Format Validation — Each hypothesis follows the correct "if-then-because" format. — Use all three parts of the format to fully and clearly describe the idea so that others can understand it.

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2.1. Format Validation If we implement one-click purchasing, then customers will start buying items they previously just added to their cart, because they won't have to fill out many fields, and they'll have less time for second thoughts. Speed up the purchase process to one click so that customers spend less time on checkout. Poor Good 👎 👍

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2.2. Content Validation — The "if-then-because" statement is substantive. — Try to avoid interpretations and be as specific as possible.

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2.2. Content Validation If the sales department includes in the proposal how much electricity can be saved by installing our equipment, then customers will perceive the value of purchasing our product, because the cost of the product will be lower than the savings it will bring. If the sales department prepares an impressive proposal, then customers will be inspired to buy our product, because people like impressive proposals. Poor Good 👎 👍

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2.3. Direction Validation The hypothesis is aimed at changing the life of the subject, not you or your company.

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2.3. Direction Validation If I tell my man how I feel when someone opens the door in front of me, then he will start doing it for me, because he won't want to lose my favor over such a small thing or he'll want to do something nice for me. If my man opens the door in front of me, then I will feel loved, because when a man truly loves, he opens doors for his girlfriend. Poor Good 👎 A man who loves I feel loved ← ←

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2.4. Traceability Validation

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3. Prioritization

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4. Using the Map The Hypothesis Map serves as the foundation for further work. It can be combined with tools such as: 1. User Story Mapping 2. HADI cycles 3. Process and Experience Alignment Map 4. Customer Journey Map

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5. Feedback Loop for Learning

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4. FAQ

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No hypotheses If the project is just starting: 1. Gather experts 2. Go into the field 3. Jobs To Be Done 4. CusDev If you've been working on the project for a while: Admit that it's unclear how tasks affect the goal and start formulating hypotheses.

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Can't stop to make the Map Don't try to document everything. Strike a balance between analysis efforts and forecast accuracy. When is it time to stop writing the Technical Specification?

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5. Why Does Business Need a Hypothesis Map?

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Conscious (Effective) Approach to Problem Solving

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Strategy in the Form of a Diagram — a Communication Method Owners of the business/budget, leaders, and executives… 1. Understand why an IT product is being created 2. Embrace business goals and are ready to work towards achieving them 3. Comprehend the strategy for achieving results and priorities 4. Understand the success criteria for the IT product.

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Strategy in the Form of a Diagram — a Communication Method Within the scope of hypotheses, the execution team gains the ability to vary implementation, reducing the operational load on leaders and enabling the FFF method (Fix Time, Fix Budget, Flex Scope).

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Tasks Are No Longer Up in the Air 1. Tasks should no longer be up in the air; they should be attached to a branch 2. Want to add a task? Attach it to an existing branch with a hypothesis or describe a new hypothesis 3. No such branch? Are you sure the task is needed? Does it definitely provide value?

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Value of this approach: 1. Copying your business is possible, but there won't be the same history and future 2. Competitors know the consequences, but they don't understand the reasons. 💡 Maintain a journal of your journey through the tree: what worked, what didn't, and why? They Won't Catch Up to You

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6. What to Do Today?

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Try to Understand and Describe the Causes and Consequences of Your Actions Used for both business and personal purposes. 1. Draw a Hypothesis Map for the tasks you are currently working on 2. Create a Map for yourself personally, with the hypotheses that drive you in life.

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Materials and Group Method website Discussion group for the method and public map reviews

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Thank you for your attention! Mr. Alexander BYNDYU [email protected]