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Hypothesis Mapping – Strategic Planning Method

Hypothesis Mapping – Strategic Planning Method

Identifying Goals and Creating a Strategy to Achieve Them
https://hypothesismapping.com

Александр Бындю

September 28, 2023
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  1. Alexander BYNDYU
    IT-architect
    Byndyusoft
    Experience:
    Author of the book 'Antifragile in IT,'
    Methodologist, Expert in Agile and Lean,
    Mentor, Life Coach
    Owner and IT Architect at Byndyusoft
    About me:

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  2. Hypothesis Mapping
    Strategic Planning Method
    https://hypothesismapping.com

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  3. Alexey Pimenov
    Alexander is the 'father'
    of Impact Mapping in Russia
    On neural networks in IT,
    selling developers, and what clients want
    Video

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  4. 9 years
    of Impact Map
    practice
    I will tell you about Impact Mapping,
    but not exactly like Gojko,
    there are some nuances...

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  5. Method Genesis
    Effect Map
    Mijo Balic,
    Ingrid
    Ottersten, 2007
    Hypothesis Map
    Alexander Byndyu, 2023
    • • → Impact Map
    Gojko Adzic, 2012

    • • • • →

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  6. Plan
    1. Map structure
    2. Creating a map through an example
    3. Stages of working with the Map
    4. FAQ
    5. Why does business need a Hypothesis Map?
    6. What to do today?

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  7. 1. Map Structure

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  8. 1. Goal
    Future-oriented question: "By what criteria
    will we determine project success at the end?”
    Good practices:
    1. Show the difference:
    "The goal is 200K users, it’s currently 10K"
    2. Described using SMART criteria
    3. Objectives inspire the team and the entrepreneur
    Antipattern:
    Tasks instead of goals — "Create a platform."

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  9. 2. Subject
    Whose lives do we want to change by implementing the hypothesis,
    so that the change in their lives leads us to our goal?
    Good practices:
    1. Choose the level of abstraction that is useful for you:
    "Ivan Petrovich, Market Director,"
    "Men, aged 30-40, average income...,"
    "Auto service station with a turnover..."
    2. Conduct Customer Development (CusDev)
    3. Create Jobs to be Done
    4. Select a group you can genuinely influence
    Antipattern:
    Insert performers — "frontend developers," "our company's lawyers."

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  10. 3. Hypothesis — Key Element of the Map
    The idea through which we intend to change
    the subject's behavior.
    Good practices:
    1. Answers the question "Why the thing, that
    we are about to do, will work out?"
    2. Described in a specific format
    3. Has content that is logically validated

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  11. Hypothesis Format
    If [and and ...],
    then ,
    because

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  12. Example: Hypothesis of a Conference Organizer

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  13. Antipattern when describing a hypothesis
    Describing actions or impacts
    as in the original Impact Map:
    — Referral program
    — More calls
    — More frequent website visits
    — Promotions and discounts
    — Special offers
    These are tacit knowledge,
    and they do not reveal
    the essence of the idea.

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  14. 4. Task for Hypothesis Validation
    A list of tasks through which we will validate our hypotheses.
    Good practices:
    1. Tasks should be actions aimed at validation,
    completing which we can validate the hypothesis
    2. The level of the task is determined by the level
    of the hypothesis: the task can be a User Story
    or even a whole project
    3. Tasks are organized in order
    4. Descriptions are business-friendly and clear.
    Antipattern:
    Overly detailed descriptions oriented toward execution.
    Avoid trying to write a detailed technical specification
    through tasks.

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  15. 2. Creating a Map
    through an Example

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  16. The Parable of the Potter
    There once lived an old potter.
    He made pots, sold them at the market,
    and made a living from it.
    But some neighborhood boys
    took to breaking his pots.
    He asked them not to do it, begged,
    scolded, complained to their parents —
    nothing helped...

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  17. The Parable of the Potter
    ...So he called the boys into his yard and told them that
    he would pay them a ruble for every broken pot.
    The boys were delighted, smashed all the pots, got their
    money, and ran away. The next day, the potter said
    he didn't have much money, he could only pay 50 kopecks.
    The boys broke all the pots again, got their money,
    and ran off. The same thing happened the next day,
    but this time, the potter could only pay 20 kopecks for each
    broken pot.
    The following morning, the kids came back to the yard.
    The old man went out to them and said, "I have almost
    no money left now because I had nothing to sell.
    Now, for each broken pot, I can only pay one kopeck."
    The boys were outraged, "You found fools to break your pots
    for free!".
    They never broke any more pots.

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  18. 3. Stages of Working with the Map

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  19. Stages of Working with the Map
    1. Creating the Map
    2. Validation
    3. Prioritization
    4. Using the Map in work
    5. Learning from feedback loop

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  20. 1. Creating the Map
    Points 1-5 can be done in any order:
    1. Specify the goal
    2. Identify the subjects
    3. Describe the hypotheses strictly according to the format
    4. Write down the main tasks for each hypothesis
    5. Establish connections between all elements
    6. Repeat points 1-5 in any order, constantly rephrasing everything
    written, and rebuild the map with a new understanding
    Important:
    1. Facilitation skills for analytical sessions
    2. Availability of experts who have a deep understanding
    of the subject matter

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  21. 2.1. Format Validation
    — Each hypothesis follows the correct "if-then-because" format.
    — Use all three parts of the format to fully and clearly describe the idea
    so that others can understand it.

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  22. 2.1. Format Validation
    If we implement one-click purchasing,
    then customers will start buying items
    they previously just added to their cart,
    because they won't have to fill out many
    fields, and they'll have less time for
    second thoughts.
    Speed up the purchase process
    to one click so that customers
    spend less time on checkout.
    Poor Good
    👎 👍

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  23. 2.2. Content Validation
    — The "if-then-because" statement is substantive.
    — Try to avoid interpretations and be as specific as possible.

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  24. 2.2. Content Validation
    If the sales department includes in the
    proposal how much electricity can be
    saved by installing our equipment,
    then customers will perceive the value
    of purchasing our product,
    because the cost of the product will be
    lower than the savings it will bring.
    If the sales department prepares
    an impressive proposal,
    then customers will be inspired
    to buy our product,
    because people like impressive
    proposals.
    Poor Good
    👎 👍

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  25. 2.3. Direction Validation
    The hypothesis is aimed at changing the life
    of the subject, not you or your company.

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  26. 2.3. Direction Validation
    If I tell my man how I feel when someone
    opens the door in front of me,
    then he will start doing it for me,
    because he won't want to lose my favor over such
    a small thing or he'll want to do something nice for me.
    If my man opens the door in front of me,
    then I will feel loved,
    because when a man truly loves, he opens doors
    for his girlfriend.
    Poor
    Good
    👎

    A man
    who loves
    I feel
    loved
    ← ←

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  27. 2.4. Traceability Validation

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  28. 3. Prioritization

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  29. 4. Using the Map
    The Hypothesis Map serves as the foundation for further work.
    It can be combined with tools such as:
    1. User Story Mapping
    2. HADI cycles
    3. Process and Experience Alignment Map
    4. Customer Journey Map

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  30. 5. Feedback Loop for Learning

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  31. No hypotheses
    If the project is just starting:
    1. Gather experts
    2. Go into the field
    3. Jobs To Be Done
    4. CusDev
    If you've been working
    on the project for a while:
    Admit that it's unclear how tasks
    affect the goal and start
    formulating hypotheses.

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  32. Can't stop to make the Map
    Don't try to document
    everything. Strike a balance
    between analysis efforts
    and forecast accuracy.
    When is it time
    to stop writing
    the Technical Specification?

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  33. 5. Why Does Business Need
    a Hypothesis Map?

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  34. Conscious (Effective) Approach to Problem Solving

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  35. Strategy in the Form of a Diagram — a Communication Method
    Owners of the business/budget, leaders, and executives…
    1. Understand why an IT product is being created
    2. Embrace business goals and are ready to work towards achieving them
    3. Comprehend the strategy for achieving results and priorities
    4. Understand the success criteria for the IT product.

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  36. Strategy in the Form of a Diagram — a Communication Method
    Within the scope of hypotheses,
    the execution team gains
    the ability to vary implementation,
    reducing the operational load
    on leaders and enabling
    the FFF method (Fix Time, Fix
    Budget, Flex Scope).

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  37. Tasks Are No Longer Up in the Air
    1. Tasks should no longer
    be up in the air; they should be
    attached to a branch
    2. Want to add a task? Attach it to
    an existing branch with a hypothesis
    or describe a new hypothesis
    3. No such branch? Are you sure
    the task is needed? Does it definitely
    provide value?

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  38. Value of this approach:
    1. Copying your business is possible,
    but there won't be the same
    history and future
    2. Competitors know
    the consequences, but they
    don't understand the reasons.
    💡 Maintain a journal of your journey
    through the tree:
    what worked, what didn't, and why?
    They Won't Catch Up to You

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  39. 6. What to Do Today?

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  40. Try to Understand and Describe the Causes
    and Consequences of Your Actions
    Used for both business and personal purposes.
    1. Draw a Hypothesis Map for the tasks you are currently working on
    2. Create a Map for yourself personally, with the hypotheses that drive you
    in life.

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  41. Materials and Group
    Method website
    https://hypothesismapping.com
    Discussion group for the
    method and public map
    reviews
    https://t.me/hypothesismap

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  42. Thank you for your attention!
    Mr. Alexander BYNDYU
    https://byndyu.ru
    [email protected]
    https://vk.com/byndyu

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