HISTOIRE DU FUTUR (Future's history in EN)

by Futur Immédiat

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1 FUTUR IMMEDIAT! A lecture by Raphael Thys HISTOIRE DU FUTUR

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HISTOIRE DU FUTUR? Introduction, program of the cursus

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FUTURIST CREATE IMPACT BY SHARING KNOWLEDGE 47 9 10 16 20+ STRATEGIC DESIGNER - UX ARCHITECT HELP PEOPLE TO START MOVING TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE PREFERRED FUTURE

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FUTUR IMMEDIAT! TOWARDS PREFERABLE FUTURES

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FUTUR IMMEDIAT! INSPIRATION, NETWORKING, HELP TO START MOVING

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FUTURE IS GOOD PARTNER & CO - FOUNDER

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WE ARE A DIFFERENT KIND OF STRATEGY, CHANGE & TRANSFORMATION AGENCY

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CHANGE FOR GOOD OUR FOCUS

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SOME REFERENCES

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RANSBECK THE LIFESTYLE OF OUR GRAND-PARENTS THE TECHNOLOGY OF OUR GRAND-KIDS

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YOU? WHAT IS THE FUTURE YOU WANT? DO YOU THINK IT WILL HAPPEN? IF NOT WHY? IF NOT, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO TO CHANGE IT?

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SURVEY RESULTS GLOBAL OVERVIEW

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SURVEY RESULTS ZOOM IN

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FUTUR IMMEDIAT Before we start : Survey Days 3 & 4 : Workshop “Towards preferable futures” Between classes : videos, review slides, lectures Days 1 & 2 : Histoire du futur

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TABLE OF CONTENT Unexpected is the new normal Transformation towards a preferable future The Upcoming 4th industrial revolution Past & digital age overview Future's shock & exponentiallity

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OBJECTIVES Perspective change Mountain view Introduction to future thinking

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BENEFITS General understanding of impacting concepts Navigation toolkit Better understanding of the context in which you are going to start your adult life Key insights to navigate towards your preferable future

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NOTES It helps me to better understand why and what the class is speaking about. It will help me to stay alert and avoid mistakes. It will help me to take concrete actions. Quick wins.

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DISCLAIMER

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DISCLAIMER

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DISCLAIMER

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DISCLAIMER

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UNEXPECTED IS THE NEW NORMAL

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2040/2050?

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“Mankind will change more in the next 20 years, than in the last 300” Gerd Leonhard

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“Change means movement, movement means friction” Saul Alinsky

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27 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

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28 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

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29 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

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30 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

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31 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

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32 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

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HACTIVISTS ANONYMOUS, ARAB SPRINGS, WHISTLEBLOWERS

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KEYBOARD WARRIORS

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IDIOCRACY

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IDIOCRACY READING TIME REPLACED BY SCREEN TIME

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37 7" 11" 15" 2000" 2005" 2010" 2015" 9"Seconds" ? Average attention span since public internet IDIOCRACY ATTENTION FRAGMENTATION

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IDIOCRACY LANGUAGE PAUPERISATION

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IDIOCRACY IQ DECREASE

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40 IDIOCRACY

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IDIOCRACY BRAIN ROT THEORY

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42 TECHNOLOGICAL FRICTIONS

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INFORMATIONAL CHAOS

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THE MATRIX HAS YOU

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THE MATRIX HAS YOU

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46 THE MATRIX HAS YOU

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47 INFORMATIONAL CHAOS OPINION DIVIDE

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Source : washingtonexaminer.com FAKE NEWS

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DEEP FAKE

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CONSPIRACY THEORIES

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3D PRINTING

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ROBOTICS

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NANOTECHNOLOGIES

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BIOTECHNOLOGIES

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IOT

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57 DIGITAL IS DEAD

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58 SKILLS SCARCITY

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59 ENVIRONMENTAL FRICTIONS

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CARBON CRISIS

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61 ECO SYSTEM CRISIS

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62 POLLUTION CRISIS

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63 RESOURCES CRISIS

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64 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS

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65 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS A MORE BALANCED WORLD

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A MORE BALANCED WORLD MINT, PIST, Emerging 7, Next 11

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67 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE “NEW” ECONOMY

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ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS COLLUSION/CORRUPTION

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ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS COLLUSION/CORRUPTION

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70 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE DEBT TRAP

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71 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES

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72 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS GLOBAL ENRICHMENT

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73 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES

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$3 $6 $9 $12 million $0 1963 99th percentile $1,457,201 1983 99th percentile $3,323,063 2016 99th percentile $10,400,000 Source: Urban Institute calculations from Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers 1962 (December 31), Survey of Changes in Family Finances 1963, and Survey of Consumer Finances 1983-2016 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES

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75 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS HETERONOMOUS AND JUST-IN-TIME

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76 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS ECONOMICAL GROWTH = ENERGY

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77 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE LIMIT OF GROWTH

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78 POLITICAL FRICTIONS

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79 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS

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80 POLITICAL SHIFTS

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POST-DEMOCRACY

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Is privacy important, if you have nothing to hide? POST-DEMOCRACY PRIVACY

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“Donnez moi 6 lignes écrites de la main du plus honnête homme, et j’y trouverai de quoi l’y faire pendre” Cardinal Richelieu "Give me 6 lines from the most honest man, I will ﬁnd enough therein to hang him” POST-DEMOCRACY

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POST-DEMOCRACY

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POST-DEMOCRACY

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DIGITAL SURVEILLANCE

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Source : Financial Time POST-DEMOCRACY

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88 THE WORLD IS VUCA

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BUSINESS AS USUAL IS DEAD

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WIDE FUTURES’ SPECTRUM

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MANY FUTURES

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MANY FUTURES

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FUTURE’S TIMELINE

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94 GREAT FILTER Very distant future of mankind?

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95 GREAT FILTER

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96 GREAT FILTER

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97 4th WAVE

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“Past success is no guarantee of future success” Steven Van Belleghem

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“This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” Western Union internal memo (1876)

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“I think there is a world market for maybe ﬁve computers” Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman (1943)

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Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will ﬂop.” Time Magazine (1966)

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“There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home” Ken Olsen Digital Equipement Corp. Founder (1977)

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“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any signiﬁcant market share.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO (April 2007)

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“Is Netﬂix a threat? Is the Albanian army going to take over the world?” Jeffery Bewkles CEO Time Warner, (2010)

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“Success breeds complacency Complacency breeds failure Only the paranoid survive “ Andy Grove (former Intel CEO)

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106 SUCCESS “A Successful person isn’t necessarily better than her less successful peers at solving problems; Her pattern recognition facilities have just learned what problems are worth solving.” Ray Kurzweil

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107 IN THE ROOM

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108 “If you can describe your job, it can be automated” Geerd Leonhard

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109 FUTURE’S HORIZON Future’s shock, exponentially & VUCA

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110 Source : Duval union RELEASE DATE : 1970 THE FUTURE SHOCK* IS HAPPENING NOW! The trauma that results of going trough great changes in a short period of time

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111 EXPONENTIALITY

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0,01 2 3 4 10 20 0,3€ LINEAR

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0,01 2 3 4 10 10k€ 10 m€ EXPONENTIAL

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Source: Ray Kurzweil, “The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology”, p.67, The Viking Press, 2006. Datapoints between 2000 and 2012 represent BCA estimates ELECTROMECHANICAL SOLID STATE RELAY TRANSISTOR INTEGRATED CIRCUIT VACUUM TUBE 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 OPTICAL, QUANTUM, DNA COMPUTING HUMAN BRAIN MOUSE BRAIN 0 104 108 1012 1016 10-4 CORE I7 QUAD PENTIUM APPLE II ALTAIR 8800 UNVAC I COLOSSUS IBM TABULATOR ANALYTICAL ENGINE CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER $1000 EXPONENTIALITY

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115 EXPONENTIALITY 4Kb Vs 17 Kb

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EXPONENTIALITY Storage capacity doubles every 18 months Computer power Storage KRYDER’S LAW (STORAGE)

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117 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB

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118 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB 10 TRILLION FOLD IMPROVEMENTS

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Bandwidth grows at least three times faster than computer power Computer power Bandwidth EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

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120 DIAL UP ADSL BROADBAND SUPER BROADBAND DATE SPEED EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

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EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

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EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

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EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

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EXPONENTIALITY GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)

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2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2002 2004 1992 1999 Cell Cost $/Watt Cumulative Installations, MWp 100 1 K 10 K 100 K 1 M 1 B $ 0.10 $ 10 $ 1 EXPONENTIALITY SWANSON’S LAW (SOLAR ENERGY COST)

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$10K $100K $1M $10M $100M $1K 2001 2005 2010 2015 Moore’s Law EXPONENTIALITY COST PER GENOME

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EXPONENTIALITY Mid 90’s : 2.7 B$

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EXPONENTIALITY 2017 : 99 $

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Q1:97 Q1:01 Q1:05 Q1:09 Q1:13 25 50 0 Global PC (Desktop/Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95– Q1:13 Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets EXPONENTIALITY

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130 EXPONENTIALITY

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EXPONENTIALITY

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IBM AN/FSQ-7 – 1958 Whirlwind I – 1951 UNIVAC 1101 - 1950 EXPONENTIALITY 50’s BUILDING SIZE COMPUTERS

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CDC6600 - 1964 HP 2116A - 1966 DDP-116 i - 1965 EXPONENTIALITY 60’s ROOM SIZE COMPUTERS

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XEROX Parc - 1974 Apple I - 1976 Apple II - 1977 EXPONENTIALITY 70’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (PIONEERS)

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Commodore VIC-20 - 1980 IBM pc - 1982 Apple Mac - 1984 EXPONENTIALITY 80’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (MATURITY)

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Apple Mac portable - 1989 Apple PowerBook - 1991 IBM Thinkpad - 1995 EXPONENTIALITY 90’s LAP SIZE COMPUTERS

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Apple iPhone - 2007 Amazon Kindle - 2007 Apple iPad - 2009 EXPONENTIALITY 00’s HAND SIZE COMPUTERS

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Nest thermostat - 2011 Raspberry pie (25$) - 2012 Apple Watch - 2015 EXPONENTIALITY 10’s WRIST SIZE COMPUTERS

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EXPONENTIALITY 20’s CELL SIZE COMPUTERS?

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Global digital information created and shared each year - zettabytes 2 4 6 8 0 2005 2010 2015 Zettabytes 1 Zettabyte 1 000 Exabytes 1 000 000 Petabytes 1 000 000 000 Terabytes 1 000 000 000 000 Gigabytes 1/1 000 Yottabyte 1/1 000 000 Brontobyte 1 000 000 000 000 000 Megabytes EXPONENTIALITY

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1900 Knowledge doubling every century 1945 Knowledge doubling every 25 years 1982 Knowledge doubling every 12-13 months 2020 IBM predicts knowledge doubling every 11-12 hours Source : https://steemit.com/philosophy/@rsguardian/limitless-alih9vcs0x EXPONENTIALITY

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EXPONENTIALITY

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WORLD GDP OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA Total output of the world economy; adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 international dollars. $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017) GDP

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS (1750-2010) EARTH SYSTEM TRENDS (1750-2010) Real GDP World Population Foreign Direct Investment Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide Methane Primary energy use Urban population Fertilizer consumption Surface temperature Stratospheric ozone Ocean acidification Water use Large dams Paper production Shrimp aquaculture Marine fish capture Coastal nitrogen Tele- communications Transportation International tourism Domesticated land Tropical forest loss Terrestrial biosphere degradation EXPONENTIALITY

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145 ? Biology Culture Technology EXPONENTIALITY

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ACCELERATION OF THE ACCELERATION We are here

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MATRIX OF KNOWLEDGE

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148 FRAGMENTATION

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IMPREDICTIBILITY

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150 IMPREDICTIBILITY

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IMPREDICTIBILITY

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IMPREDICTIBILITY

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IMPREDICTIBILITY

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IMPREDICTIBILITY

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IMPREDICTIBILITY

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156 IMPREDICTIBILITY

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157 MITIGATION

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158 LAWS OF PHYSIC

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AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”

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AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the e ect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the e ect in the long run.”

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161

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EVOLUTION Physiological needs Security needs Social needs Self esteem Meaning

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163 EXPONENTIAL HISTORY

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164 ? Biology Culture Technology MANKIND’S 3 WAVES

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165 12 000 YEARS AGRICULTURE WRITTING PRINTING STEAM OVER 12 000 years

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1st INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1784

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1913 2d INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

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168 3D INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION The digital age 1969

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169 THE DIGITAL AGE INTERNET SOCIAL MOBILE CLOUD COMPUTER

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170 ECONOMY 3.0

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DIGITAL DARWNISM “The evolution of customer behaviour when society & technology evolve faster than one’s ability to adapt” Brian Solis

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1995 + 2005 + 2015 + Music Photography Video Rental Print Media Tv Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/insurance 2020 All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption 1995+ 2005+ 2015+ 2020 Music Photography Video rental Print media TV Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/Insurance All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption Source : Duval Union EVERYWHERE From immaterial to material to everywhere

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Kodak valuation decline DIGITAL DARWINISM

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1976 : Near to monopolistic situation 1990 : One of the most valuable brand in the world 1991 : Introduce the 1st digital camera 2000 : Main sponsor of Olympic Games choose to promote celluloid ﬁlm (more money on short term) 2003 : People starts to take pictures with mobile phones 2007 : The iPhone is released 2012 : Bankruptcy 2015 : Announce release of selﬁe sticks KODAKISATION

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NOT UNIQUE

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CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

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THE NETWORK ECONOMY

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PLATFORMS The world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles The world’s most popular media owner, creates no content The most valuable retailer, has no inventory The world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate

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WINNER TAKES ALL

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Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL

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Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL

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183 NEW WINNERS

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184 NEW WINNERS

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185 NEW WINNERS

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GAFA ARE COMPETITORS

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GAFA want to spread the internet Access is a strategical business enabler for GAFA and GAFA alike … Not a business model GAFA ARE COMPETITORS

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GAFA ARE PARTNERS

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More info on Gafa GAFA ARE PARTNERS

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190 Baïdu Tecent Xiomi Alibaba NEW WINNERS

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30,8 24 EXPECT THEM

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30,8 B$ 24 H Nov 2018 EXPECT THEM

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256 K Sec Nov 2017 transactions EXPECT THEM

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90% Nov 2017 Mobile EXPECT THEM

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195 THE DATA ECONOMY

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ABUNDANCE OF DATA

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GLOBAL REACH

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198 “WHEN INFORMATION IS FREE, ATTENTION IS EXPENSIVE” James Gleick ATTENTION ECONOMY

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Source : Tristan Harris (TED)

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SIMPLE.COM ATTENTION ECOLOGY

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“In the digital space We earn it, we spend it” BRIAN SOLIS ATTENTION IS A CURRENCY

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THE USER CENTRIC ERA

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THE EXPERIENCE ECONOMY

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Commoditisation COMMODITISATION2

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EXPERIENCE ECONOMY $ 6.00 $ 5.00 $ 4.00 $ 3.00 $ 2.00 $ 1.00 Commodities Goods Services Experiences café en vrac Paquet de café café

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TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY

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TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY

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Source : NIKE ADS

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THE PURPOSE ECONOMY

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BRAND ACTIVISM Source : adweek FROM MARKETING TO MATTERING

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BRAND ACTIVISM

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212 A NEW WORLD 33% Future: installation in progress

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NEWS VS FACTS Hans Rosling

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If it bleeds, it leads Popular expression

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215 SHOCK THERAPY

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216 BIASES

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217 “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, cha er before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannise their teachers.” BIASES

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218 ― Socrates “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, cha er before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.” BIASES

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219 The NEGATIVITY instinct: forge ing how the world really was before. It is not because some things are bad today that they cannot be be er than they were before! BIASES

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x BIASES

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221 The STRAIGHT LINE instinct: the danger of extrapolating from a known variable. There are straight lines of course, but more o en lines are curved or S-shaped; this is the case in demographics, for instance. BIASES

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The FEAR instinct: some of our ancestral fears, justiﬁed at the time when we lived in caves, still haunt us today even though the situation has radically changed. And we have a tendency to grossly exaggerate modern threats such as terrorism, compared to other causes of death. BIASES

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223 The SIZE instinct: the tendency to look at individual ﬁgures without pu ing them in perspective. There are more than four million infant deaths (for 141 million births) per year in the world today, which is staggering and shocking. But in 1950 the number was 14.5 million for 97 million births. We also tend to look at individual victims and forget about the many victims who do not make it on to our TV screens. BIASES

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224 The GENERALISATION instinct: we divide the world into 'them' and 'us' and then think of the people in these groups as all being the same. BIASES

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225 The DESTINY instinct: best summed up by the phrase "things never change". BIASES

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226 The SINGLE PERSPECTIVE instinct: thinking that all problems have a single cause. BIASES

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227 The BLAME instinct (could also be called the 'conspiracy instinct'): it is always intellectually easier to ﬁnd culprits rather than real causes. BIASES

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The URGENCY instinct: pushing people to rush for solutions that are "simple, straigh orward and… wrong" BIASES

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Every day ... 305.000 new people have access to clean water 295.000 new people have access to electricity 620.000 new people have access to internet Source : Hans Rosling via Dear Media “It’s still bad, but it getting better” Hans Rosling

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230 NEWS VS FACTS Life expectancy -100 years Today Literacy rate Democraties Poverty 51 y 32% 16 82% 71 y 85% 123 9%

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FAMINE

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232 PRODUCTIVITY $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)

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THE LONG PEACE

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234 POPULATION

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WARNING

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WARNING WARS IMPROVING FOR 8 YEARS

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WARNING FAMINE IMPROVING FOR 3 YEARS

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WARNING COVID-19 : WORLD FAMINE COULD DOUBLE IN 2020

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DECLINE OF EXTREME POVERTY IS SLOWING DOWN WARNING

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WARNING VS 12.5% 87.5% ATOM 2 ATOM

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241 WARNING ANTHROPOCENE

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WARNING ANTHROPOCENE

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243 COLLAPSE

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244 FUTURE SPECTRUM

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245 Optimist Pessimist Entrepreneurship / Private centric Institutional centric Abundance Scarcity FUTURISTS THE FUTURES’ GAP

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“We wanted ﬂying cars, we got 140 characters” Peter Thiel

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4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 2020 - 2050 100% Future : installation completed

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TECH TSUNAMI IOT AI 3D ROBOTICS BIOTECHS NANO APIs BLOCKCHAIN AUTONOMOUS VEHICULES DRONES RENEWABLES SPACE QUANTUM COMPUTING NEXT 20-40 YEARS THE ACCELERATION OF ACCELERATION

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ENABLERS

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DIGITAL ENABLERS

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DIGITAL ENABLERS INTERNET OF EVERYTHING

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BLOCKCHAIN

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VIRTUAL REALITY

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AUGMENTED REALITY

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AUGMENTED REALITY

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AUGMENTED REALITY

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE NARROW GENERAL SUPER

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AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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10 building blocks of AI COGNITION SENSORY PERCEPTION MACHINE LEARNING DEEP LEARNING IMAGE ANALYSIS NATURAL LANGUAGE GENERATION NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING SPEECH RECOGNITION ROBOTICS KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING NARROW AI

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DEEPMIND : AUTOML Alphago zero AI

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NARROW SPAM, recommandations, marketing automation AI

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AI NARROW Translation, natural language

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Google duplex AI NARROW

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AI NARROW Disease detection

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PHYSICAL ENABLERS

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3D PRINTING

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ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING

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CONSTRUCTION EVERYWHERE

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EVERYWHERE HEALTH

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Source : Media Mice EVERYWHERE HEALTH

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EVERYWHERE CONSTRUCTION

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EVERYWHERE SPACE

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RENEWABLES ENERGIES

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RENEWABLES 8000 TIMES OUR CURRENT NEEDS

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David Mackay Source : RENEWABLES CURRENT LIMITATIONS

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QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES

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QUANTUM COMPUTING

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QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY

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ROBOTICS Source : Wired

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ROBOTICS Boston dynamics Boston dynamics INDUSTRIAL, MILITARY

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Mine Kafon DRONES

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Rwanda blood delivery DRONES

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Read the full article View the video ROBOTICS KILLER ROBOTS

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Source : theri .eu SPACE THE SECOND SPACE AGE

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SPACE MOON

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34 missions planned in the next decade 10 manned missions 24 robotic missions 4 private missions SPACE MOON

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SPACE MARS

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SPACE MARS

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Source : Peter Diamandis SPACE MINING & INDUSTRY

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NANOTECHNOLOGIES “There is plenty of room at the bottom” Richard Feynman

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NANOTECHNOLOGIES MED BOTS & DRUGS

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NANOTECHNOLOGIES NANO MATERIALS

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250 stronger than steel Lighter than paper NANOTECHNOLOGIES GRAPHENE

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BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS

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CRISP 2.0 can change a signe Nuclotide 32000 out of 50000 diseases are caused by a single-point mutations BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS CRIPSR 2.0

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BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS CURE, PREVENT, AUGMENT

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BIO TECHNOLOGIES

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NEW REALITY

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SEAMLESS & UBIQUITOUS

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ONE PHYGITAL WORLD

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SHAZAM EVERYTHING

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THE SIGNAL AGE OPEN & BIG DATA DATA INTEGRATED AI

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INTERNETS

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AND/OR INTERNETS

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AUTOMATED WORLD

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STORES PRODUCTS PACKAGING JOURNEYS MASS PERSONALISATION

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ZERO MARGINAL COST

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ZERO MARGINAL COST Source : Singularity university

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311 ASSISTANT THE LAST APP

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CENTAUR CENTRIC

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MaaC

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MARKETING 4.0 Of advertising ? Sensor economy MaaC (MX?)

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EDUCATION 4.0

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HEALTHCARE 4.0

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EARTHSHIP THE AGE OF LIMITS

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318 POLLUTION

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UNEXPECTED CLIMATIC EVENTS

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320 THE END OF (CHEAP) OIL

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OTHER PEAKS

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OTHER PEAKS

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OTHER PEAKS

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324 ECONOMICAL SHIFT

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SECTORS’ BIG BANG?

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326 SO?

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COMPLEX

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HETERONOMOUS

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POLARISED

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BIAISED

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BIAISED

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COLLUDED

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GREED WILL NEVER BE GREEN

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INVISIBLE HANDS

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OLD LEGACY

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“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” A. Einstein 336 “On ne peut résoudre un problème avec le même mode de pensée utilisé lors de sa création.”

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TRANSFORMATION

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338 “The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented” Dennis Gabor

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UN SUSTAINABLE GOALS

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RESILIENCE TO THE UNKNOWN & THE UNEXPECTED

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PREFERABLE FUTURE

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OBSOLETES FUTURES

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ATTITUDE

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GO WITH THE FLOW

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“THE ILLITERATE OF THE 21ST CENTURY WILL NOT BE THOSE WHO CANNOT READ AND WRITE, BUT THOSE WHO CANNOT LEARN, UNLEARN, AND RELEARN. ALVIN TOFFLER

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AGILITY & VELOCITY

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USE NEURONS

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ETHICS

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HUMILITY EGO = 1 KNOWLEDGE

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“TAKE MY IDEAS, I’LL HAVE OTHERS” COCO CHANEL CREATIVITY & CURIOSITY

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351 “GIVEN THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES BEING DIFFERENT IS A SUPERPOWER.” Greta Thunberg

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“JUDGE A MAN BY HIS QUESTIONS RATHER THAN HIS ANSWERS.” Voltaire ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

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353 EMPATHY

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SOLIDARITY

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355 SLOW & CRITICAL THINKING

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REDEFINE VALUE

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357 DO YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE? ATTITUDE Arnold Schwarzenegger : Success Steve Jobs : 3 stories Tim Minchin : 9 lessons

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USE THE FORCES

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PURPOSE

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NATURE

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PAG E 361 HOLISTIC

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MINIMALIST BY DESIGN

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AUTONOMY

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SYNERGIES & SYMBIOSIS

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365 DIVERSITY BIO, ETHNO, TECHNO

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TECHNOLOGY

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EXPONENTIAL2

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HORIZONTAL & DISTRIBUTED

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ALGORYTHMS

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GRACEFUL DEGRADATION

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DIGITAL

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BUSINESS

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POSITIVE ECONOMY

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PAG E 374 TRIPLE TOP/BOTTOM LINE

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DONUT ECONOMY

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TRIPLE CAPITAL

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TRIPLE CAPITAL

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PAG E 378 SUSTANABLE OR TOXIC BUSINESS MODELS

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OPTIMISATION

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DEMATERIALISATION

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DEMATERIALISATION

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DESINNOVATION

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DESINCUBATION

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INCREASED FUNCTIONALITIES

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USE EXCESS CAPACITY

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6 to 20 minutes SHARED ASSETS

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MUTUALISATION

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LEAN MANUFACTURE

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LEAN MANUFACTURE

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ADDITIVE MANUFACTURE

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ADDITIVE MANUFACTURE

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ON DEMAND PRODUCTION

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CIRCULARITY

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394 “A WASTE IS A MISPLACED RESOURCE.” Philippe Samyn

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CIRCULARITY USE EXCESS CAPACITY, MUTUALISATION

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CIRCULARITY TAKE BACK MANAGEMENT, SLOW MANUFACTURING

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CLOSED LOOP

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OPEN LOOP

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OPEN LOOP

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OLD IS THE NEW BLACK

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END OF LIFE PRODUCT MANAGEMENT

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EXTENDED PRODUCER RESPONSIBILITY

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INDUSTRIAL SYMBIOSIS

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INDUSTRIAL SYMBIOSIS

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? RENEWABLES

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RENEWABLES GREEN AND BIO CHEMISTRY

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FOSSIL ENERGIES

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NUCLEAR?

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FUSION?

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HYDROGENE

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BLUE ECONOMY

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BIOMIMETISM

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IT VERT

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PROPERTY FUNCTIONALITIES EVERYTHING AS A SERVICE

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FUNCTIONALITY OVER OWNERSHIP RENTAL, LEASE, PAY PER USE

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STEWARDSHIP

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PROTECT BIODIVERSITY, PROMOTE HEALTH AND WELL BEING STEWARDSHIP

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STEWARDSHIP TRANSPARENCE RADICALE

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FAIR TRADE

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FAIR TRADE

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SLOW

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PRODUCT LIFE EXTENSION

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CUSTOMER EDUCATION

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CUSTOMER EDUCATION

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SLOW RESPONSIBLE SUPPLY CHAIN

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SLOW SLOW TRENDS & FASHION DEMAND MANAGEMENT

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SLOW FRUGALITY, PREMIUM OR LIMITED

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SOBRIETY

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SLOW CAPITAL

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CO-CREATION

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OPEN SOURCE

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OPEN DATA

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OPEN INNOVATION

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INCUBATORS & ACCELERATORS

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Source : Kevin Kelly PARTICIPATIVE

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Le grand bois commun CROWD FUNDING

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LOCAL SOCIAL HOME BASED FLEXIBLE COOPERATIVES NOT FOR PROFIT

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CO-CREATION INCUBATORS, ACCELERATORS, BUSINESS SUPPORT, COLLABORATIVE APPROACHES, SLOW CAPITAL, CROWD SOURCING & FUNDING

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LOCALISATION, COOPERATIVE, FLEXIBLE WORKING SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP

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HUMAN

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PLAY

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PAG E 442 COLLABORATE

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MYTHS & HEROES

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LOVE & BENEVOLANCE

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TRIALS & ERRORS

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LEARN

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STORYTELLING

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“WITH GREAT POWER COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITIES” Ben Parker

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No content

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QUESTIONS?

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PLEASE GIVE FEEDBACK Fill this 1 min form to help me improve the presentation

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pinterest.com/Futur_Immediat/ [email protected] raphael-thys.com KEEP IN TOUCH futurimmediat.net thebeyonders.agency twitch.tv/futur_immediat be.linkedin.com/in/raphaelthys discord.gg/y2UMCfn youtube.com/futurimmediat be.linkedin.com/in/raphaelthys

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COLLABORATORS WANTED

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454 SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS

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SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS BOOKS

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456 SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS BOOKS

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457 SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS BOOKS

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458 SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS BOOKS

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459 SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS BOOKS

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Yuval Noah Harari Pablo Servigne Peter Diamandis Gerd Leonhard Jeremy Ri in Gauthier Chapelle Ray Kurzweil Alvin To er Hans Rosling François Bégaudeau SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS PEOPLE & ORGANISATIONS

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Rob Hopkins SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS PEOPLE & ORGANISATIONS

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SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS h ps://www.ons.gov.uk h ps://ourworldindata.org h ps://www.weforum.org h ps://futurism.com h ps://www.andyhinesight.com/ h ps://qz.com/ h ps://www.youtube.com/thinkerview h ps://www.bbc.com/future WEBSITES

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WHAT’S NEXT 1. Digest, watch videos, review content 2. Workshop •Question framing •Past •Present •Trends •Signals 3. Future scenarios 4. Pitch & presentation