HISTOIRE DU FUTUR (Future's history in EN)

Our world is confronted more and more to unprecedented events and situations.
Futurists are both predicting collapse and utopia.
What future do we need to prepare for.

How to prevent the next crisis?
Are our companies, sectors, institutions and us are resilient?

What can we do to develop resilience, how can we achieve a preferable future?

Transcript

1. 1
   FUTUR IMMEDIAT!
   A lecture by Raphael Thys
   HISTOIRE DU FUTUR
   

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2. HISTOIRE DU FUTUR?
   Introduction, program of the cursus
   

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3. FUTURIST
   CREATE IMPACT BY
   SHARING KNOWLEDGE
   47 9
   10
   16
   20+
   STRATEGIC DESIGNER - UX ARCHITECT
   HELP PEOPLE TO START MOVING
   TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE PREFERRED
   FUTURE
   

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4. FUTUR IMMEDIAT!
   TOWARDS PREFERABLE FUTURES
   

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5. FUTUR IMMEDIAT!
   INSPIRATION, NETWORKING, HELP TO START MOVING
   

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6. FUTURE IS GOOD
   PARTNER & CO - FOUNDER
   

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7. WE ARE A DIFFERENT KIND OF
   STRATEGY,
   CHANGE &
   TRANSFORMATION
   AGENCY
   

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8. CHANGE FOR GOOD
   OUR FOCUS
   

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9. SOME REFERENCES
   

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10. RANSBECK
    THE LIFESTYLE OF OUR GRAND-PARENTS
    THE TECHNOLOGY OF OUR GRAND-KIDS
    

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11. YOU?
    WHAT IS THE FUTURE YOU
    WANT?
    DO YOU THINK IT WILL HAPPEN?
    IF NOT WHY?
    IF NOT, WHAT ARE YOU GOING
    TO DO TO CHANGE IT?
    

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12. SURVEY RESULTS
    GLOBAL OVERVIEW
    

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13. SURVEY RESULTS
    ZOOM IN
    

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14. FUTUR IMMEDIAT
    Before we start : Survey
    Days 3 & 4 : Workshop “Towards preferable futures”
    Between classes : videos, review slides, lectures
    Days 1 & 2 : Histoire du futur
    

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15. TABLE OF CONTENT
    Unexpected is the new normal
    Transformation towards a preferable future
    The Upcoming 4th industrial revolution
    Past & digital age overview
    Future's shock & exponentiallity
    

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16. OBJECTIVES
    Perspective change
    Mountain view
    Introduction to future thinking
    

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17. BENEFITS
    General understanding of impacting concepts
    Navigation toolkit
    Better understanding of the context in which you are going to
    start your adult life
    Key insights to navigate towards your preferable future
    

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18. NOTES
    It helps me to better understand why
    and what the class is speaking about.
    It will help me to stay alert and avoid
    mistakes.
    It will help me to take concrete
    actions.
    Quick wins.
    

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19. DISCLAIMER
    

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20. DISCLAIMER
    

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21. DISCLAIMER
    

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22. DISCLAIMER
    

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23. UNEXPECTED
    IS THE NEW NORMAL
    

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24. 2040/2050?
    

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25. “Mankind will change more
    in the next 20 years,
    than in the last 300”
    Gerd Leonhard
    

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26. “Change means movement,
    movement means friction”
    Saul Alinsky
    

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27. 27
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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28. 28
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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29. 29
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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30. 30
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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31. 31
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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32. 32
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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33. HACTIVISTS
    ANONYMOUS, ARAB SPRINGS, WHISTLEBLOWERS
    

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34. KEYBOARD WARRIORS
    

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35. IDIOCRACY
    

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36. IDIOCRACY
    READING TIME REPLACED BY SCREEN TIME
    

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37. 37
    7"
    11"
    15"
    2000" 2005" 2010" 2015"
    9"Seconds"
    ?
    Average attention span since public internet
    IDIOCRACY
    ATTENTION FRAGMENTATION
    

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38. IDIOCRACY
    LANGUAGE PAUPERISATION
    

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39. IDIOCRACY
    IQ DECREASE
    

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40. 40
    IDIOCRACY
    

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41. IDIOCRACY
    BRAIN ROT THEORY
    

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42. 42
    TECHNOLOGICAL FRICTIONS
    

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43. INFORMATIONAL CHAOS
    

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44. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
    

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45. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
    

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46. 46
    THE MATRIX HAS YOU
    

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47. 47
    INFORMATIONAL CHAOS
    OPINION DIVIDE
    

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48. Source : washingtonexaminer.com
    FAKE NEWS
    

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49. DEEP FAKE
    

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50. CONSPIRACY THEORIES
    

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51. 3D PRINTING
    

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52. ROBOTICS
    

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53. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
    

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54. BIOTECHNOLOGIES
    

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55. IOT
    

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56. AI
    

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57. 57
    DIGITAL IS DEAD
    

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58. 58
    SKILLS SCARCITY
    

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59. 59
    ENVIRONMENTAL FRICTIONS
    

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60. CARBON CRISIS
    

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61. 61
    ECO SYSTEM CRISIS
    

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62. 62
    POLLUTION CRISIS
    

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63. 63
    RESOURCES CRISIS
    

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64. 64
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    

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65. 65
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    A MORE BALANCED WORLD
    

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66. A MORE BALANCED WORLD
    MINT, PIST, Emerging 7, Next 11
    

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67. 67
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    THE “NEW” ECONOMY
    

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68. ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    COLLUSION/CORRUPTION
    

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69. ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    COLLUSION/CORRUPTION
    

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70. 70
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    THE DEBT TRAP
    

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71. 71
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    INEQUALITIES
    

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72. 72
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    GLOBAL ENRICHMENT
    

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73. 73
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    INEQUALITIES
    

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74. $3
    $6
    $9
    $12 million
    $0
    1963
    99th percentile
    $1,457,201
    1983
    99th percentile
    $3,323,063
    2016
    99th percentile
    $10,400,000
    Source: Urban Institute calculations from Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers 1962 (December 31), Survey of Changes in Family Finances 1963, and Survey of Consumer Finances 1983-2016
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    INEQUALITIES
    

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75. 75
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    HETERONOMOUS AND JUST-IN-TIME
    

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76. 76
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    ECONOMICAL GROWTH = ENERGY
    

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77. 77
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    THE LIMIT OF GROWTH
    

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78. 78
    POLITICAL FRICTIONS
    

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79. 79
    GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS
    

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80. 80
    POLITICAL SHIFTS
    

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81. POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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82. Is privacy important,
    if you have nothing
    to hide?
    POST-DEMOCRACY
    PRIVACY
    

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83. “Donnez moi 6 lignes écrites de la main
    du plus honnête homme, et j’y trouverai
    de quoi l’y faire pendre”
    Cardinal Richelieu
    "Give me 6 lines from the most honest man, I will find enough therein to hang him”
    POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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84. POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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85. POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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86. DIGITAL SURVEILLANCE
    

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87. Source : Financial Time
    POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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88. 88
    THE WORLD IS VUCA
    

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89. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS DEAD
    

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90. WIDE FUTURES’ SPECTRUM
    

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91. MANY FUTURES
    

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92. MANY FUTURES
    

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93. FUTURE’S TIMELINE
    

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94. 94
    GREAT FILTER
    Very distant future of mankind?
    

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95. 95
    GREAT FILTER
    

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96. 96
    GREAT FILTER
    

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97. 97
    4th WAVE
    

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98. “Past success is no
    guarantee of future
    success”
    Steven Van Belleghem
    

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99. “This telephone has too many
    shortcomings to be seriously
    considered as a means of
    communication.
    The device is inherently of no
    value to us”
    Western Union internal memo (1876)
    

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100. “I think there is a world market
     for maybe five computers”
     Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman
     (1943)
     

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101. Remote shopping,
     while entirely feasible,
     will flop.”
     Time Magazine (1966)
     

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102. “There is no reason why anyone would
     want a computer in their home”
     Ken Olsen
     Digital Equipement Corp. Founder (1977)
     

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103. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is
     going to get any significant market
     share.”
     Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO (April 2007)
     

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104. “Is Netflix a threat?
     Is the Albanian army going to
     take over the world?”
     Jeffery Bewkles CEO Time Warner,
     (2010)
     

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105. “Success breeds complacency
     Complacency breeds failure
     Only the paranoid survive “
     Andy Grove (former Intel CEO)
     

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106. 106
     SUCCESS
     “A Successful person isn’t necessarily
     better than her less successful peers
     at solving problems;
     Her pattern recognition facilities have
     just learned what problems are worth
     solving.”
     Ray Kurzweil
     

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107. 107
     IN THE ROOM
     

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108. 108
     “If you can describe your job,
     it can be automated”
     Geerd Leonhard
     

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109. 109
     FUTURE’S HORIZON
     Future’s shock, exponentially & VUCA
     

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110. 110
     Source : Duval union
     RELEASE DATE : 1970
     THE FUTURE
     SHOCK* IS
     HAPPENING NOW!
     The trauma that results of
     going trough great changes
     in a short period of time
     

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111. 111
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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112. 0,01 2 3 4 10 20 0,3€
     LINEAR
     

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113. 0,01 2 3 4 10 10k€ 10 m€
     EXPONENTIAL
     

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114. Source: Ray Kurzweil, “The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology”, p.67, The Viking Press, 2006. Datapoints between 2000 and 2012 represent BCA estimates
     ELECTROMECHANICAL
     SOLID STATE RELAY
     TRANSISTOR
     INTEGRATED CIRCUIT
     VACUUM
     TUBE
     1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
     OPTICAL, QUANTUM,
     DNA COMPUTING
     HUMAN
     BRAIN
     MOUSE
     BRAIN
     0
     104
     108
     1012
     1016
     10-4
     CORE I7 QUAD
     PENTIUM
     APPLE II
     ALTAIR 8800
     UNVAC I
     COLOSSUS
     IBM TABULATOR
     ANALYTICAL ENGINE
     CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER $1000
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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115. 115
     EXPONENTIALITY
     4Kb Vs 17 Kb
     

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116. EXPONENTIALITY
     Storage capacity doubles every 18
     months
     Computer power
     Storage
     KRYDER’S LAW (STORAGE)
     

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117. 117
     KRYDER’S LAW
     1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB
     24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB
     

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118. 118
     KRYDER’S LAW
     1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB
     24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB
     10 TRILLION FOLD
     IMPROVEMENTS
     

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119. Bandwidth grows at least three
     times faster than computer power
     Computer power
     Bandwidth
     EXPONENTIALITY
     GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
     

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120. 120
     DIAL UP ADSL BROADBAND SUPER BROADBAND
     DATE
     SPEED
     EXPONENTIALITY
     GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
     

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121. EXPONENTIALITY
     GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
     

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122. EXPONENTIALITY
     GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
     

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123. EXPONENTIALITY
     GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
     

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124. EXPONENTIALITY
     GILDER’S LAW (BANDWITH)
     

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125. 2014
     2013
     2012
     2011
     2010
     2009
     2008
     2002
     2004
     1992
     1999
     Cell Cost $/Watt
     Cumulative Installations, MWp
     100 1 K 10 K 100 K 1 M 1 B
     $ 0.10
     $ 10
     $ 1
     EXPONENTIALITY
     SWANSON’S LAW (SOLAR ENERGY COST)
     

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126. $10K
     $100K
     $1M
     $10M
     $100M
     $1K
     2001 2005 2010 2015
     Moore’s Law
     EXPONENTIALITY
     COST PER GENOME
     

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127. EXPONENTIALITY
     Mid 90’s : 2.7 B$
     

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128. EXPONENTIALITY
     2017 : 99 $
     

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129. Q1:97 Q1:01 Q1:05 Q1:09 Q1:13
     25
     50
     0
     Global PC (Desktop/Notebook) and
     Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95– Q1:13
     Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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130. 130
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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131. EXPONENTIALITY
     

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132. IBM AN/FSQ-7 – 1958
     Whirlwind I – 1951
     UNIVAC 1101 - 1950
     EXPONENTIALITY
     50’s BUILDING SIZE COMPUTERS
     

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133. CDC6600 - 1964
     HP 2116A - 1966
     DDP-116 i - 1965
     EXPONENTIALITY
     60’s ROOM SIZE COMPUTERS
     

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134. XEROX Parc - 1974
     Apple I - 1976
     Apple II - 1977
     EXPONENTIALITY
     70’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (PIONEERS)
     

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135. Commodore VIC-20 - 1980
     IBM pc - 1982 Apple Mac - 1984
     EXPONENTIALITY
     80’s DESK SIZE COMPUTERS (MATURITY)
     

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136. Apple Mac portable - 1989
     Apple PowerBook - 1991
     IBM Thinkpad - 1995
     EXPONENTIALITY
     90’s LAP SIZE COMPUTERS
     

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137. Apple iPhone - 2007
     Amazon Kindle - 2007
     Apple iPad - 2009
     EXPONENTIALITY
     00’s HAND SIZE COMPUTERS
     

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138. Nest thermostat - 2011
     Raspberry pie (25$) - 2012
     Apple Watch - 2015
     EXPONENTIALITY
     10’s WRIST SIZE COMPUTERS
     

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139. EXPONENTIALITY
     20’s CELL SIZE COMPUTERS?
     

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140. Global digital information created and
     shared each year - zettabytes
     2
     4
     6
     8
     0
     2005 2010 2015
     Zettabytes
     1 Zettabyte
     1 000 Exabytes
     1 000 000 Petabytes
     1 000 000 000 Terabytes
     1 000 000 000 000 Gigabytes
     1/1 000 Yottabyte
     1/1 000 000 Brontobyte
     1 000 000 000 000 000 Megabytes
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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141. 1900
     Knowledge doubling
     every century
     1945
     Knowledge doubling
     every 25 years
     1982
     Knowledge doubling
     every 12-13 months
     2020
     IBM predicts
     knowledge doubling
     every 11-12 hours
     Source : https://steemit.com/philosophy/@rsguardian/limitless-alih9vcs0x
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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142. EXPONENTIALITY
     

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143. WORLD GDP OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA
     Total output of the world economy; adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 international dollars.
     $20 trillion
     $40 trillion
     $60 trillion
     $80 trillion
     $100 trillion
     $0
     1 2015
     1500
     1000
     500
     Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)
     GDP
     

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144. SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS (1750-2010) EARTH SYSTEM TRENDS (1750-2010)
     Real GDP
     World
     Population
     Foreign Direct
     Investment
     Nitrous Oxide
     Carbon
     Dioxide
     Methane
     Primary
     energy use
     Urban
     population
     Fertilizer
     consumption
     Surface
     temperature
     Stratospheric
     ozone
     Ocean
     acidification
     Water use
     Large dams
     Paper
     production
     Shrimp
     aquaculture
     Marine fish
     capture
     Coastal
     nitrogen
     Tele-
     communications
     Transportation
     International
     tourism
     Domesticated
     land
     Tropical
     forest loss
     Terrestrial
     biosphere
     degradation
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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145. 145
     ?
     Biology
     Culture
     Technology
     EXPONENTIALITY
     

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146. ACCELERATION OF THE
     ACCELERATION
     We are here
     

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147. MATRIX OF KNOWLEDGE
     

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148. 148
     FRAGMENTATION
     

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149. IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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150. 150
     IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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151. IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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152. IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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153. IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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154. IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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155. IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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156. 156
     IMPREDICTIBILITY
     

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157. 157
     MITIGATION
     

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158. 158
     LAWS OF PHYSIC
     

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159. AMARA’S LAW
     “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology
     in the short run and underestimate the effect
     in the long run.”
     

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160. AMARA’S LAW
     “we tend to overestimate the e ect of a technology
     in the short run and underestimate the e ect
     in the long run.”
     

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162. EVOLUTION
     Physiological needs
     Security needs
     Social needs
     Self esteem
     Meaning
     

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163. 163
     EXPONENTIAL
     HISTORY
     

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164. 164
     ?
     Biology
     Culture
     Technology
     MANKIND’S 3 WAVES
     

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165. 165
     12 000 YEARS
     AGRICULTURE WRITTING PRINTING STEAM
     OVER 12 000 years
     

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166. 1st INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
     1784
     

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167. 1913
     2d INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
     

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168. 168
     3D INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
     The digital age
     1969
     

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169. 169
     THE DIGITAL AGE
     INTERNET SOCIAL MOBILE CLOUD
     COMPUTER
     

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170. 170
     ECONOMY 3.0
     

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171. DIGITAL DARWNISM
     “The evolution of customer behaviour
     when society & technology evolve
     faster than one’s ability to adapt”
     Brian Solis
     

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172. 1995 + 2005 + 2015 +
     Music
     Photography
     Video Rental
     Print Media
     Tv
     Travel
     Retail
     Automotive
     Education
     Healthcare
     Banking/insurance
     2020
     All niches & safe
     markets will be
     subject to digital
     disruption
     1995+ 2005+ 2015+ 2020
     Music
     Photography
     Video rental
     Print media
     TV
     Travel
     Retail
     Automotive
     Education
     Healthcare
     Banking/Insurance
     All niches &
     safe markets
     will be subject
     to digital
     disruption
     Source : Duval Union
     EVERYWHERE
     From immaterial to material to everywhere
     

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173. Kodak valuation decline
     DIGITAL DARWINISM
     

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174. 1976 : Near to monopolistic situation
     1990 : One of the most valuable brand in the world
     1991 : Introduce the 1st digital camera
     2000 : Main sponsor of Olympic Games choose to promote celluloid film (more money on short term)
     2003 : People starts to take pictures with mobile phones
     2007 : The iPhone is released
     2012 : Bankruptcy
     2015 : Announce release of selfie sticks
     KODAKISATION
     

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175. NOT UNIQUE
     

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176. CREATIVE DESTRUCTION
     

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177. THE NETWORK ECONOMY
     

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178. PLATFORMS
     The world’s largest
     taxi company,
     owns no vehicles
     The world’s most
     popular media
     owner, creates
     no content
     The most valuable
     retailer,
     has no inventory
     The world’s largest
     accommodation
     provider, owns
     no real estate
     

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179. WINNER TAKES ALL
     

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180. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017)
     WINNER TAKES ALL
     

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181. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017)
     WINNER TAKES ALL
     

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182. COMPETING WITH HOTELS
     using an ecosystem
     Source: PLATFORM THINKING
     Copyright © 2015
     Sangeet Paul Choudary,
     Geoffrey Parker and
     Marshall Van Alstyne
     

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183. 183
     NEW WINNERS
     

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184. 184
     NEW WINNERS
     

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185. 185
     NEW WINNERS
     

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186. GAFA ARE COMPETITORS
     

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187. GAFA want to spread the internet
     Access is a strategical business enabler
     for GAFA and GAFA alike …
     Not a business model
     GAFA ARE COMPETITORS
     

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188. GAFA ARE PARTNERS
     

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189. More info on Gafa
     GAFA ARE PARTNERS
     

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190. 190
     Baïdu Tecent Xiomi
     Alibaba
     NEW WINNERS
     

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191. 30,8
     24
     EXPECT THEM
     

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192. 30,8 B$
     24 H
     Nov 2018
     EXPECT THEM
     

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193. 256 K Sec
     Nov 2017 transactions
     EXPECT THEM
     

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194. 90%
     Nov 2017 Mobile
     EXPECT THEM
     

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195. 195
     THE DATA ECONOMY
     

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196. ABUNDANCE OF DATA
     

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197. GLOBAL REACH
     

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198. 198
     “WHEN INFORMATION IS FREE,
     ATTENTION IS EXPENSIVE”
     James Gleick
     ATTENTION ECONOMY
     

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199. Source : Tristan Harris (TED)
     

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200. SIMPLE.COM
     ATTENTION ECOLOGY
     

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201. “In the digital space
     We earn it, we spend it”
     BRIAN SOLIS
     ATTENTION IS A CURRENCY
     

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202. THE USER CENTRIC ERA
     

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203. THE EXPERIENCE
     ECONOMY
     

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204. Commoditisation
     COMMODITISATION2
     

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205. EXPERIENCE ECONOMY
     $ 6.00
     $ 5.00
     $ 4.00
     $ 3.00
     $ 2.00
     $ 1.00
     Commodities Goods Services Experiences
     café en vrac
     Paquet de café
     café
     

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206. TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY
     

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207. TRANSFORMATION ECONOMY
     

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208. Source : NIKE ADS
     

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209. THE PURPOSE ECONOMY
     

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210. BRAND ACTIVISM
     Source : adweek
     FROM MARKETING TO MATTERING
     

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211. BRAND ACTIVISM
     

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212. 212
     A NEW WORLD
     33%
     Future: installation in progress
     

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213. NEWS VS FACTS
     Hans Rosling
     

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214. If it bleeds, it leads
     Popular expression
     

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215. 215
     SHOCK THERAPY
     

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216. 216
     BIASES
     

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217. 217
     “The children now love luxury;
     they have bad manners,
     contempt for authority;
     they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in
     place of exercise.
     Children are now tyrants,
     not the servants of their households.
     They no longer rise when elders enter the room.
     They contradict their parents,
     cha er before company,
     gobble up dainties at the table,
     cross their legs,
     and tyrannise their teachers.”
     BIASES
     

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218. 218
     ― Socrates
     “The children now love luxury;
     they have bad manners,
     contempt for authority;
     they show disrespect for elders and love cha er in
     place of exercise.
     Children are now tyrants,
     not the servants of their households.
     They no longer rise when elders enter the room.
     They contradict their parents,
     cha er before company,
     gobble up dainties at the table,
     cross their legs,
     and tyrannize their teachers.”
     BIASES
     

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219. 219
     The NEGATIVITY instinct: forge ing how the world really was before. It is not
     because some things are bad today that they cannot be be er than they were
     before!
     BIASES
     

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220. x
     BIASES
     

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221. 221
     The STRAIGHT LINE instinct: the danger of extrapolating from a known variable.
     There are straight lines of course, but more o en lines are curved or S-shaped;
     this is the case in demographics, for instance.
     BIASES
     

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222. The FEAR instinct: some of our ancestral fears, justified at the time when we
     lived in caves, still haunt us today even though the situation has radically
     changed. And we have a tendency to grossly exaggerate modern threats such as
     terrorism, compared to other causes of death.
     BIASES
     

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223. 223
     The SIZE instinct: the tendency to look at individual figures without pu ing them
     in perspective. There are more than four million infant deaths (for 141 million
     births) per year in the world today, which is staggering and shocking. But in
     1950 the number was 14.5 million for 97 million births. We also tend to look at
     individual victims and forget about the many victims who do not make it on to
     our TV screens.
     BIASES
     

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224. 224
     The GENERALISATION instinct: we divide the world into 'them' and 'us' and
     then think of the people in these groups as all being the same.
     BIASES
     

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225. 225
     The DESTINY instinct: best summed up by the phrase "things never change".
     BIASES
     

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226. 226
     The SINGLE PERSPECTIVE instinct: thinking that all problems have a single
     cause.
     BIASES
     

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227. 227
     The BLAME instinct (could also be called the 'conspiracy instinct'): it is always
     intellectually easier to find culprits rather than real causes.
     BIASES
     

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228. The URGENCY instinct: pushing people to rush for solutions that are "simple,
     straigh orward and… wrong"
     BIASES
     

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229. Every day ...
     305.000 new people have access to clean water
     295.000 new people have access to electricity
     620.000 new people have access to internet
     Source : Hans Rosling via Dear Media
     “It’s still bad, but it
     getting better”
     Hans Rosling
     

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230. 230
     NEWS VS FACTS
     Life expectancy
     -100 years
     Today
     Literacy rate Democraties Poverty
     51 y 32% 16 82%
     71 y 85% 123 9%
     

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231. FAMINE
     

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232. 232
     PRODUCTIVITY
     $20 trillion
     $40 trillion
     $60 trillion
     $80 trillion
     $100 trillion
     $0
     1 2015
     1500
     1000
     500
     Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)
     

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233. THE LONG PEACE
     

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234. 234
     POPULATION
     

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235. WARNING
     

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236. WARNING
     WARS IMPROVING FOR 8 YEARS
     

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237. WARNING
     FAMINE IMPROVING FOR 3 YEARS
     

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238. WARNING
     COVID-19 : WORLD FAMINE COULD DOUBLE IN 2020
     

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239. DECLINE OF EXTREME POVERTY IS SLOWING DOWN
     WARNING
     

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240. WARNING
     VS
     12.5%
     87.5%
     ATOM 2 ATOM
     

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241. 241
     WARNING
     ANTHROPOCENE
     

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242. WARNING
     ANTHROPOCENE
     

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243. 243
     COLLAPSE
     

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244. 244
     FUTURE SPECTRUM
     

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245. 245
     Optimist Pessimist
     Entrepreneurship / Private centric
     Institutional centric
     Abundance Scarcity
     FUTURISTS
     THE FUTURES’ GAP
     

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246. “We wanted flying cars,
     we got 140 characters”
     Peter Thiel
     

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247. 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
     2020 - 2050
     100%
     Future : installation completed
     

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248. TECH TSUNAMI
     IOT AI 3D ROBOTICS
     BIOTECHS NANO
     APIs BLOCKCHAIN AUTONOMOUS
     VEHICULES
     DRONES RENEWABLES SPACE QUANTUM
     COMPUTING
     NEXT 20-40 YEARS
     THE ACCELERATION OF ACCELERATION
     

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249. ENABLERS
     

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250. DIGITAL ENABLERS
     

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251. DIGITAL ENABLERS
     INTERNET OF EVERYTHING
     

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252. BLOCKCHAIN
     

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253. VIRTUAL REALITY
     

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254. AUGMENTED REALITY
     

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255. AUGMENTED REALITY
     

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256. AUGMENTED REALITY
     

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257. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
     

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258. AI
     

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259. AI
     ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
     NARROW GENERAL SUPER
     

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260. AI
     ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
     

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261. 10 building blocks of AI
     COGNITION
     SENSORY
     PERCEPTION
     MACHINE
     LEARNING
     DEEP
     LEARNING
     IMAGE
     ANALYSIS
     NATURAL
     LANGUAGE
     GENERATION
     NATURAL
     LANGUAGE
     PROCESSING
     SPEECH
     RECOGNITION
     ROBOTICS
     KNOWLEDGE
     ENGINEERING
     NARROW
     AI
     

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262. DEEPMIND : AUTOML
     Alphago zero
     AI
     

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263. NARROW
     SPAM, recommandations, marketing automation
     AI
     

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264. AI
     NARROW
     Translation, natural language
     

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265. Google duplex
     AI
     NARROW
     

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266. AI
     NARROW
     Disease detection
     

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267. PHYSICAL ENABLERS
     

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268. 3D PRINTING
     

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269. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
     

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270. CONSTRUCTION
     EVERYWHERE
     

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271. EVERYWHERE
     HEALTH
     

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272. Source : Media Mice
     EVERYWHERE
     HEALTH
     

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273. EVERYWHERE
     CONSTRUCTION
     

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274. EVERYWHERE
     SPACE
     

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275. RENEWABLES ENERGIES
     

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276. RENEWABLES
     8000 TIMES OUR CURRENT NEEDS
     

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277. David Mackay
     Source :
     RENEWABLES
     CURRENT LIMITATIONS
     

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278. QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES
     

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279. QUANTUM COMPUTING
     

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280. QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY
     

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281. ROBOTICS
     Source : Wired
     

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282. ROBOTICS
     Boston dynamics
     Boston dynamics
     INDUSTRIAL, MILITARY
     

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283. Mine Kafon
     DRONES
     

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284. Rwanda blood delivery
     DRONES
     

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285. Read the full article
     View the video
     ROBOTICS
     KILLER ROBOTS
     

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286. Source : theri .eu
     SPACE
     THE SECOND SPACE AGE
     

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287. SPACE
     MOON
     

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288. 34 missions planned in the next decade
     10 manned missions
     24 robotic missions
     4 private missions
     SPACE
     MOON
     

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289. SPACE
     MARS
     

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290. SPACE
     MARS
     

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291. Source : Peter Diamandis
     SPACE
     MINING & INDUSTRY
     

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292. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
     “There is plenty of
     room at the bottom”
     Richard Feynman
     

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293. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
     MED BOTS & DRUGS
     

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294. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
     NANO MATERIALS
     

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295. 250 stronger than steel
     Lighter than paper
     NANOTECHNOLOGIES
     GRAPHENE
     

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296. BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS
     

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297. CRISP 2.0 can change a signe Nuclotide
     32000 out of 50000 diseases are caused by a single-point
     mutations
     BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS
     CRIPSR 2.0
     

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298. BIOLOGICAL ENABLERS
     CURE, PREVENT, AUGMENT
     

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299. BIO TECHNOLOGIES
     

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300. NEW REALITY
     

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301. SEAMLESS & UBIQUITOUS
     

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302. ONE PHYGITAL WORLD
     

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303. SHAZAM EVERYTHING
     

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304. THE SIGNAL AGE
     OPEN & BIG DATA DATA
     INTEGRATED
     AI
     

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305. INTERNETS
     

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306. AND/OR INTERNETS
     

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307. AUTOMATED WORLD
     

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308. STORES
     PRODUCTS
     PACKAGING
     JOURNEYS
     MASS PERSONALISATION
     

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309. ZERO MARGINAL COST
     

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310. ZERO MARGINAL COST
     Source : Singularity university
     

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311. 311
     ASSISTANT
     THE LAST APP
     

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312. CENTAUR CENTRIC
     

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313. MaaC
     

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314. MARKETING 4.0
     Of advertising ?
     Sensor economy
     MaaC (MX?)
     

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315. EDUCATION 4.0
     

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316. HEALTHCARE 4.0
     

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317. EARTHSHIP
     THE AGE OF LIMITS
     

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318. 318
     POLLUTION
     

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319. UNEXPECTED CLIMATIC
     EVENTS
     

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320. 320
     THE END OF (CHEAP) OIL
     

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321. OTHER PEAKS
     

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322. OTHER PEAKS
     

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323. OTHER PEAKS
     

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324. 324
     ECONOMICAL SHIFT
     

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325. SECTORS’ BIG BANG?
     

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326. 326
     SO?
     

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327. COMPLEX
     

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328. HETERONOMOUS
     

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329. POLARISED
     

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330. BIAISED
     

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331. BIAISED
     

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332. COLLUDED
     

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333. GREED WILL NEVER BE GREEN
     

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334. INVISIBLE HANDS
     

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335. OLD LEGACY
     

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336. “We can't solve problems by
     using the same kind of thinking
     we used when we created them.”
     A. Einstein
     336
     “On ne peut résoudre un problème avec le même mode de pensée utilisé lors de sa création.”
     

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337. TRANSFORMATION
     

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338. 338
     “The future cannot be
     predicted,
     but futures can be
     invented”
     Dennis Gabor
     

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339. UN SUSTAINABLE GOALS
     

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340. RESILIENCE
     TO THE UNKNOWN & THE UNEXPECTED
     

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341. PREFERABLE FUTURE
     

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342. OBSOLETES FUTURES
     

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343. ATTITUDE
     

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344. GO WITH THE FLOW
     

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345. “THE ILLITERATE OF THE 21ST CENTURY WILL NOT
     BE THOSE WHO CANNOT READ AND WRITE,
     BUT THOSE WHO CANNOT LEARN, UNLEARN, AND
     RELEARN.
     ALVIN TOFFLER
     

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346. AGILITY & VELOCITY
     

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347. USE NEURONS
     

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348. ETHICS
     

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349. HUMILITY
     EGO =
     1
     KNOWLEDGE
     

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350. “TAKE MY IDEAS,
     I’LL HAVE OTHERS”
     COCO CHANEL
     CREATIVITY & CURIOSITY
     

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351. 351
     “GIVEN THE RIGHT
     CIRCUMSTANCES
     BEING DIFFERENT IS A
     SUPERPOWER.”
     Greta Thunberg
     

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352. “JUDGE A MAN BY
     HIS QUESTIONS
     RATHER THAN HIS
     ANSWERS.”
     Voltaire
     ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS
     

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353. 353
     EMPATHY
     

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354. SOLIDARITY
     

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355. 355
     SLOW & CRITICAL THINKING
     

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356. REDEFINE VALUE
     

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357. 357
     DO YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE?
     ATTITUDE
     Arnold Schwarzenegger : Success
     Steve Jobs : 3 stories
     Tim Minchin : 9 lessons
     

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358. USE THE FORCES
     

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359. PURPOSE
     

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360. NATURE
     

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361. PAG E 361
     HOLISTIC
     

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362. MINIMALIST BY DESIGN
     

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363. AUTONOMY
     

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364. SYNERGIES & SYMBIOSIS
     

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365. 365
     DIVERSITY
     BIO, ETHNO, TECHNO
     

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366. TECHNOLOGY
     

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367. EXPONENTIAL2
     

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368. HORIZONTAL & DISTRIBUTED
     

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369. ALGORYTHMS
     

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370. GRACEFUL DEGRADATION
     

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371. DIGITAL
     

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372. BUSINESS
     

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373. POSITIVE ECONOMY
     

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374. PAG E 374
     TRIPLE TOP/BOTTOM LINE
     

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375. DONUT ECONOMY
     

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376. TRIPLE CAPITAL
     

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377. TRIPLE CAPITAL
     

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378. PAG E 378
     SUSTANABLE OR TOXIC
     BUSINESS MODELS
     

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379. OPTIMISATION
     

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380. DEMATERIALISATION
     

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381. DEMATERIALISATION
     

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382. DESINNOVATION
     

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383. DESINCUBATION
     

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384. INCREASED FUNCTIONALITIES
     

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385. USE EXCESS CAPACITY
     

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386. 6 to 20 minutes
     SHARED ASSETS
     

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387. MUTUALISATION
     

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388. LEAN MANUFACTURE
     

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389. LEAN MANUFACTURE
     

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390. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURE
     

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391. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURE
     

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392. ON DEMAND PRODUCTION
     

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393. CIRCULARITY
     

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394. 394
     “A WASTE IS A MISPLACED RESOURCE.”
     Philippe Samyn
     

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395. CIRCULARITY
     USE EXCESS CAPACITY, MUTUALISATION
     

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396. CIRCULARITY
     TAKE BACK MANAGEMENT, SLOW MANUFACTURING
     

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397. CLOSED LOOP
     

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398. OPEN LOOP
     

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399. OPEN LOOP
     

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400. OLD IS THE NEW BLACK
     

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401. END OF LIFE PRODUCT
     MANAGEMENT
     

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402. EXTENDED PRODUCER
     RESPONSIBILITY
     

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403. INDUSTRIAL SYMBIOSIS
     

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404. INDUSTRIAL SYMBIOSIS
     

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405. ?
     RENEWABLES
     

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406. RENEWABLES
     GREEN AND BIO CHEMISTRY
     

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407. FOSSIL ENERGIES
     

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408. NUCLEAR?
     

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409. FUSION?
     

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410. HYDROGENE
     

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411. BLUE ECONOMY
     

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412. BIOMIMETISM
     

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413. IT VERT
     

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414. PROPERTY FUNCTIONALITIES
     EVERYTHING AS A SERVICE
     

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415. FUNCTIONALITY OVER OWNERSHIP
     RENTAL, LEASE, PAY PER USE
     

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416. STEWARDSHIP
     

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417. PROTECT BIODIVERSITY,
     PROMOTE HEALTH AND WELL BEING
     STEWARDSHIP
     

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418. STEWARDSHIP
     TRANSPARENCE RADICALE
     

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419. FAIR TRADE
     

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420. FAIR TRADE
     

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421. SLOW
     

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422. PRODUCT LIFE EXTENSION
     

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423. CUSTOMER EDUCATION
     

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424. CUSTOMER EDUCATION
     

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425. SLOW
     RESPONSIBLE SUPPLY CHAIN
     

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426. SLOW
     SLOW TRENDS & FASHION DEMAND MANAGEMENT
     

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427. SLOW
     FRUGALITY, PREMIUM OR LIMITED
     

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428. SOBRIETY
     

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429. SLOW CAPITAL
     

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430. CO-CREATION
     

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431. OPEN SOURCE
     

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432. OPEN DATA
     

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433. OPEN INNOVATION
     

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434. INCUBATORS & ACCELERATORS
     

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435. Source : Kevin Kelly
     PARTICIPATIVE
     

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436. Le grand bois commun
     CROWD FUNDING
     

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437. LOCAL
     SOCIAL
     HOME BASED
     FLEXIBLE
     COOPERATIVES
     NOT FOR PROFIT
     

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438. CO-CREATION
     INCUBATORS, ACCELERATORS, BUSINESS SUPPORT,
     COLLABORATIVE APPROACHES, SLOW CAPITAL,
     CROWD SOURCING & FUNDING
     

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439. LOCALISATION, COOPERATIVE, FLEXIBLE WORKING
     SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP
     

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440. HUMAN
     

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441. PLAY
     

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442. PAG E 442
     COLLABORATE
     

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443. MYTHS & HEROES
     

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444. LOVE & BENEVOLANCE
     

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445. TRIALS & ERRORS
     

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446. LEARN
     

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447. STORYTELLING
     

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448. “WITH GREAT POWER
     COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITIES”
     Ben Parker
     

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449. View Slide

450. QUESTIONS?
     

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451. PLEASE GIVE FEEDBACK
     Fill this 1 min form to help me improve the presentation
     

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452. pinterest.com/Futur_Immediat/
     raphael@thebeyonders.agency
     raphael-thys.com
     KEEP IN TOUCH
     futurimmediat.net thebeyonders.agency
     twitch.tv/futur_immediat
     be.linkedin.com/in/raphaelthys
     discord.gg/y2UMCfn
     youtube.com/futurimmediat
     be.linkedin.com/in/raphaelthys
     

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453. COLLABORATORS WANTED
     

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454. 454
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     

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455. SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     BOOKS
     

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456. 456
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     BOOKS
     

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457. 457
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     BOOKS
     

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458. 458
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     BOOKS
     

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459. 459
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     BOOKS
     

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460. Yuval Noah Harari Pablo Servigne Peter Diamandis Gerd Leonhard Jeremy Ri in
     Gauthier Chapelle Ray Kurzweil Alvin To er Hans Rosling François Bégaudeau
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     PEOPLE & ORGANISATIONS
     

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461. Rob Hopkins
     SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     PEOPLE & ORGANISATIONS
     

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462. SOURCES & INSPIRATIONS
     h ps://www.ons.gov.uk
     h ps://ourworldindata.org
     h ps://www.weforum.org
     h ps://futurism.com
     h ps://www.andyhinesight.com/
     h ps://qz.com/
     h ps://www.youtube.com/thinkerview
     h ps://www.bbc.com/future
     WEBSITES
     

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463. WHAT’S NEXT
     1. Digest, watch videos, review content
     2. Workshop
     •Question framing
     •Past
     •Present
     •Trends
     •Signals
     3. Future scenarios
     4. Pitch & presentation
     

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