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Playing The
Self-Publishing Game
A super biased argument to bet on yourself
and self-publish your next book
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My Goal
I want to inspire more internet-native writers
to publish their own books earlier in their
journeys and see the upsides of self-publishing
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Who I am?
👋 Hey, I’m Paul Millerd
I’ve been a solopreneur since 2017,
sharing my ideas and thoughts online,
playing a long game I want to keep playing
In 2021 I decided to self-publish my book,
The Pathless Path. Along the way, I
figured out everything on my own.
It wasn’t easy but it wasn’t that hard
either. What follows is my way of making
sense of what I experienced as well as why
I ended up turning down a big fancy
publishing deal after my book started to
succeed.
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How I see the world…
People are underestimating digital scale & distribution via owned audiences
Self-publishing tools & capabilities will continue to improve globally
I believe there will be increased opportunities to repackage books in new audio & digital
formats that we can’t predict
I value creative control much more than most people
I like figuring things out and sharing them with people
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I explored for three years, with increased attention in
2020 from everyone working from home…
2017 - 2020
Writing About Work
Had hundreds of
conversations with
people about my ideas
Wrote 100+ essays and
newsletters on the topic
Thousands of tweets
Made friends curious
about similar themes
At end of 2020, had three
people in one week say:
“If you wrote a book, I would
read it”
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So, I decided to write a book
2017 - 2020
Writing About Work
Had hundreds of
conversations with
people about my ideas
Wrote 100+ essays and
newsletters on the topic
Thousands of tweets
Made friends curious
about similar themes
2021 2022
Book was #1 priority
entire year
Continued doing all the
same things
Launched book when
done after 14 months
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Decide to
Write Book
= 3,328
followers
I had a very engaged, but not a massive
audience in Dec 2020 when I decided to write
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Published
Book
And it continued to grow throughout the
writing process as I shared what I was doing
= 7,491
followers
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June
Book Sales By Month
I quietly launched the book to my existing subscribers and
was ecstatic at my early success
Read More: “I accidentally launched my book”: https://boundless.substack.com/p/i-accidentally-launched-my-book-a
“I broke even!” 5k books!
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The early
response
were a VERY
strong
indicator of
potential
success
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And they kept coming…I “felt” something
good might emerge but I honestly didn’t
know…
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June
Book Sales By Month
…and underestimated that the book might still have a
much bigger audience!
Read More: “I accidentally launched my book”: https://boundless.substack.com/p/i-accidentally-launched-my-book-a
28k Books!
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Why (I think) It Took Off
• Wrote a book people liked and wanted to share
• Had cultivated real relationships with hundreds of people
around my ideas for years
• I poured my heart into the book and didn’t compromise
anything creatively or editorially: it is easier to share
something your heart is 100% behind
• I had book-lifestyle fit: I approached the book similar to
how I approached my life, learning everything myself,
sharing along the way, avoiding chasing vanity metrics (best
seller) and gifting generously once launched
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Genuine Sharing From Other People
With Audiences
(I’m sort of crazy and didn’t ask anyone to share or review)
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My book topic & my personality were
perfectly wired for long games
• Not “done” with the topic: My curiosity has not waned on exploring how
people live unconventional lives
• I want to keep going: I have a ton of fun writing a weekly newsletter, talking
to people, and sharing on Twitter
• Giving is easier & cheaper: I have practiced generosity for years and am
delighted to give my book away for free. This was made easier by the low
cost to print & ship on Amazon KDP ($4.50 a book)
• Timing & speed: Getting to market early was an advantage. I caught the
early waves of the zeitgeist (Covid WFH, Tech Layoffs, Creator Economy)
that emerged in 2020 by publishing in early 2021.
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My original belief: launches matter
Reality: launches matter but long games can win too
Launch Energy 🚀 Long Game Energy 🚶♂️
I’m wired to play
this game
(I hate launches)
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What do you have?
Launch Energy 🚀 Long Game Energy 🚶♂️
“By the time the book came out, I had already recorded 75
podcast interviews and had asked all of them to release
within the first two weeks of the book coming out. Then I had
another 25 that I recorded the month the book launched. We
had 100 podcast interviews come out within the first month
of the book being out - but you need to reach out to 300 to
get on 100”
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Lessons Learned
1. I underestimated the potential for books for
internet-native writers that are playing long
games and plan to continue to share around ideas
they care about
2. I underestimated the intrinsic rewards: it raised
my personal ambitions, helped me be a better
writer, and gave others a clear token to show
their support
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Is the book you want to write in
the flow of your natural curiosity
& sharing?
(then what are you waiting for?)
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Traditional vs. Self-Publishing is a falsechoice
that keeps too many from actually writing
Traditional Self-Publishing
VS.
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The reality is there is a spectrum of
options & models
Traditional Self-Publishing
Hybrid
“Standard Deal”
100% DIY
50/50 Royalty Split
No Advance
Pay-for-services
100% Royalties
Fixed fee ($2-5k)
90% Royalties
By Submission
15-20% Fees
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While you can buy back rights from publisher, it rarely
happens. Self-publishing preserves optionality
Traditional
Self-Publishing
Publisher Owns
Lifetime Rights
Sell to publisher
Stay self-published
Sell global rights only
Future creative options
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A top publisher offered me a two-book
deal 15 months after I self-published
I turned it down
because I could
see the value of
my book and the
economics &
trade-offs didn’t
make sense
Source: Paul Millerd : "Last month, Portfolio (part of 🐧) reached out and ended up offering
$200k for the rights to The Pathless Path and a 2nd book I said no
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People were shocked by $200k but the math often
doesn’t make sense no matter the number once its selling
Case example: Hal Elrod
Hal: “I think we were up to 10,000 copies a month, so
it was earning like, I don't even know, $40,000 a
month, or something. I did the math and I'm like, "All
right, love you, it would be a really great check to get
in the mail," and then I would regret it for the rest of
my life, right?”
Hal: “We met with 13 New York publishers. We got
nine offers. I'll be very transparent, so the top two
offers were for $250,000 advances.”
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After Penguin reached out, I explored a couple of
other options, I was surprised at the leverage I had
in the market
More negotiating power: A Top UK publisher offered to
republish print-only in Non-North American Regions (they
take all printing and cost risk) for a 50/50 royalty split. I
decided to say no to this as well
Global Opportunities: I signed a global rights agent to sell
Indian English rights and global translations. Foreign
rights agents typically are happy to represent self-
published authors with good sales trajectories. They only
take 20% of commissions and royalties. This is typically
seen as “found money”
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Five Key Considerations
#1 Prestige
#2 Process
#3 Creative Control
#4 Distribution
#5 Royalties
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#1 Prestige: Does it (still) matter?
How to accurately price the glow of prestige
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Prestige is a mental model for what
other people care about
This is a hidden force that shapes the modern
world more than we like to admit
But when it comes to publishing, I believe the
value of this prestige is overpriced
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The most powerful way traditional publishers “sell” prestige is
promising to send your book to other authors they publish
Famous
Author
Influencer
Famous
Author
Famous
Author
Famous
Author
Media
Representative
Your book Publisher’s network
Thoughts
• This can be amazing, but a
lot of this isn’t going to
magically help your book
succeed
• You have to put in a lot of
effort to pursue these
relationships and even still,
this will only help with a big
launch
• People will always share
what they think is good, you
don’t NEED a publisher to
access big names
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My experience: Ali Abdaal posted a video about my book
Almost 500k views drove a
spike of about 10k books (all
channels) over 90 days.
Reflection: People with large, high-trust audiences that are aligned on
topics & interests can sell a lot of books
Also, I think people overrate channels like radio, media articles versus
YouTube – these relationships with audience are highly personal
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Traditional Publishing
✓ Reputation (but weaker than
its apex)
✓ Take upfront cost &
inventory risks
✓ Up-front payment
✓ Clear timeline and process
✓ Understanding of mass
market
✓ Retail & global relationships
Self-Publishing
✓ Absolute creative control
✓ Royalty long-term upside &
incentives
✓ Rapidly growing market &
new opportunities
✓ Can make updates &
improvements without
permission
✓ Cheaper gifting of books
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Traditional publishers used to
have distribution edge with retail
But retail has declining sales… …despite increasing print sales
Source: U.S. print book sales 2022 | Statista
Source: U.S. book store sales 2022 | Statista
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I sense the prestige and stigma will continue to fade as
established writers pursue alternative paths
Steven Pressfield Self-
Published His Memoir
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#2 Process & Timeline
Are self-published books crappier? (They can be)
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With a traditional publisher, you get access to an editor, but
you are also competing with hundreds of books in production
We publish over 1,500 titles every year across a
wide range of categories and genres, including
fiction and non-fiction, adult and children’s, and
commercial bestsellers and literary classics.
Your attention within a publishing house will be
directly correlated to the size of your advance
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The traditional timeline is needlessly slow because of a
fixed process, lots of books, and too many meetings
Book proposal
3-6 Months
Writing & Approval
9-15 Months
Pre-Production & Launch
6-9 months
1 year 2 year
Writing, Editing & Design Upload & Approval
3-5 days
Traditional
Self-Published
Published Chooses
Launch Date
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But, self-Publishing can be overwhelming
because you make all the decisions
Traditional Self-Publishing
You
Editor
Publishing
Staff
Writing
Everything
Else
Editing
Design
Marketing
& Pricing
Strategy
Distribution
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Case Example: I did a 99 designs contest and was not
quite happy with any of the covers
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Lesson Learned: I hired a pro designer on 99 designs
who’s work I liked and ended up getting two covers
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I made lots of little mistakes (so I could share!), like not
knowing you could pre-sale a kindle on amazon up to a year
before launch (oops)
Source: I (accidentally) launched my book a year ago and then it magically sold 10,000 copies (substack.com)
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Recommended self-publishing steps
❑ Just start writing before thinking about publishing options
❑ See how you feel about the book before making any major decisions
❑ When you are 40-60% done with a solid draft, start thinking about
exploring hybrid and self-publishing options
❑ Hire an editor
❑ Acquire your own ISBNs via Bowker (or other)
❑ Hire a designer and have them format documents to upload to
various sites (most will provide templates)
❑ Put book on Amazon Kindle pre-sale (can’t pre-sale printed copies)
❑ Work with editor to finish book
❑ Work with proofreader and typesetter (or use Reedsy) to finish book
❑ Upload to Amazon and send yourself a proof copy
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#3 Creative Control
Are self-published books crappier? (They can be)
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In traditional publishing there is a playbook.
This may include:
❑ Certain page count minimums (60-80k typical)
❑ Will cut parts that you want to keep
❑ Will insist on titles and cover design
❑ Decisions made as part of committees
❑ Launch date
At an institutional level, this may make sense for a big publishing house.
But they are maximizing shareholder value, not your creative spirit.
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Process & creative control drives most of the
dissatisfaction: anonymous complaints I’ve heard
“My editor is great but the staff
they are working with is not
very good.”
“The process is painfully slow”
“I have to fight them on too
many trivial things, it is sucking
my creative energy”
“(Top publishing imprint) asked me to
blurb a borderline MLM scheme”
“I feel like I can’t tell people about my
real experience because I need to be a
‘good author’”
“I stopped promoting my book because
the royalties are too low and I won’t
earn out my advance.”
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I had fun making tiny decisions that delighted me
like choosing block paragraphs
This is what
95% of
published books
seem to be
I couldn’t find a
good reason
other than “this
is the way it’s
done”
This is what I
chose in my
book
Why?
I liked it
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I did different paperback and hardcovers
Why not?!
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Hybrid Example: Jenny Blake worked with a hybrid publisher
because she wanted to create a very high-quality hardcover
Her first two books were
with traditional
publishers, but she
worked with a hybrid
publisher for her third
because she wanted to
control the creative
process and create
something that delighted
her
Cost ~$10/copy with
Ideapress
Source: 162: Should You Self-Publish? (Part One) — Free Time with Jenny Blake — Book & Podcast for Heart-Based
Business (itsfreetime.com)
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People do judge self-
published books
Embarrassingly, I'll admit I was blown away from the
book quality. Not because you hadn't done a great job
in your previous writings, but I guess I was thinking a
self-published book would somehow be lesser
- A reader to me, in an email
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But self-publishing just has a wider
variance. There are great looking self-
published books
Don’t do this
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Taking yourself seriously is what matters
most. Spend on design & editing
Spend Before Launch
Production Costs
Editing $3,400 2 Editors
Coaching $500 1 Coach
99Designs Contest $275 Failed!
99 Designs Pro $67 Success
Publishing $250 IngramSpark
Audiobook $1,280 Mastering of audio
Total Spend $6,172
Marketing Spend
Gifted Books $5,000 ~1000-1200 books
Ads $5,200 Mostly amazon
Marketing Consultant $325
Total Spend ~$10,325
Spend After Launch
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Going from text to book is easier than people think
This is a free book
editor that exports to
print-ready PDF, MOBI,
and EPUB
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…and you can level up using additional cheap or
free tools
Better
Formatting
More Printing &
Binding Options
Better Covers
Freelance
designers &
editors
Book Printing &
Fulfilment
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Key creative control decision points
❑ Don’t worry too much about anything until 30-50% through (just write!)
❑ Start noticing other people’s books in bookstores, including sizes, paper,
print, and colors
❑ Start previewing designers on sites like 99 designs (I recommend
spending at least $300)
❑ With self-publishing you can make changes AFTER launch
❑ Don’t settle for a cover that you don’t LOVE
❑ Use reedsy and Amazon’s portal to print proof copies of different sizes
and page counts. Try matted vs. glossy., white vs. crème paper – see what
you like!
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#4 Distribution
How much do you make? (It depends)
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Traditionally published does not guarantee
bookstores
“For the authors whose primary
goal is getting into bookstores,
you may sign over lifetime
ownership of your art for a mere
three months of spine-out
visibility.”
Hugh Howey
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Book stores aren’t stupid: they’ll stock stuff people
want (Like David Goggins book)
“I wanted to own all of Can’t Hurt
Me, and I wanted to own all of my
own life story”
David Goggins
5+ Millions Sold
Published with Scribe in 2018
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Some people have been playing long-games with
self-publishing (and winning!)
Hugh Howey has been self-
publishing for years, with one of
his books becoming an Apple TV
series in 2023
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You can get into local and indie bookstores (but it
requires a lot of manual work)
Selling my book at
BookPeople in Austin
(recently sold out and
they requested more)
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One of my favorite things to do has been to give
away my book for free and leave it around Austin
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You can also pitch places like Barnes & Noble and
Hudson Booksellers
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Seth Godin has published 140+ books and has self-
published and published
“What we're left with is this if you're willing to
do the work and show up and show up and
show up with generosity for years at a time,
people are going to read your book.
And if people read your book and they don't
like it, you should write another book. Because
this act of putting it down in writing clearly for
people who want to learn about you, who want
to learn from you, is fun and generous and
ultimately productive for everybody”
The “easy” but
ultimately, hard
approach
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Seth has a great podcast episode talking about WHY you
should self-publish and how to think about it
1. Start talking about the book 3+ years before publishing
(fit with my experience of writing about the same topic
for 4+ years)
2. People WILL judge it – Do a great cover, hire a copy
editor, proofread – take it serious
3. Don’t sell to everyone: The best-selling book in any one
year only reached 2% of the population
4. Books that are shareable are the most valuable: Write
a book people want to share more than 2+ at a time
5. The bestseller list is a scam (see link)
Great podcast episode: Akimbo: Publish Yourself
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#5 Royalties & Pricing
How much do you make? (It depends)
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Royalty Comparison
Jenny Blake: Penguin
Advance: $150k
Type Sold Royalties
Per
Book
Hardcover 13,500 $37,000 $2.74
Paperback 21,200 $19,800 $0.93
eBook 10,000 $23,400 $2.34
Plus $40k Foreign Rights
Total Books = 44,700
“Earned out” = $120k
Source: 164: Let’s Talk Royalties re: Publishing Options (Part Two) — Free Time with Jenny Blake — Book & Podcast for Heart-Based Business (itsfreetime.com)
Type Sold Royalties
Per
Book
Hardcover 425 $3,040 $7.15
Paperback 7,631 $53,716 $7.04
eBook 12,523 $58,981 $2.34
Paul Millerd: Self-Published
Upfront Costs: $6k
VS.
Total Books = 20,579
Total Royalties = $115k
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Traditional Publishing Has A Standard Deal
This is my offer from Penguin
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Royalties can be confusing because of sales, discounts,
and global pricing. But this calculator is helpful
To “earn” out the 70k
they were offering me
for my book, I would
have had to sell> 25k
books
On my own I could sell
10k paperbacks on
Amazon
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My Detailed Self-Publishing Royalties
29k sold, $142k total royalties, Avg $5.08 a book
Channel Units Avg Royalty Type Units %
Kindle 10,707 $ 4.61 Ebook 12,750 45%
Audiobook (ACX) 6,795 $ 3.87 Print 8,492 30%
AMZN Paperback 6,394 $ 7.82 Audio* 6,795 24%
IngramSpark ebook 1,153 $ 2.67 *25% since July release
India Publishing (Pothi) 894 $ 0.02
IngramSpark Paperback 764 $ 5.14 Channel Units %
Gumroad 392 $ 8.70 Amazon 17,358 62%
Apple iBook 374 $ 6.71 ACX 6,795 24%
AMZN Hardcover 257 $ 8.77 Ingram 2,230 8%
IngramSpark Hardcover 183 $ 4.29 Other 1,654 6%
Google Books 124 $ 6.24
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You can’t compare royalties 1:1 because
they are different games
Jenny’s book got a massive order into
Target, which is much harder AND
lowered the average royalties
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Traditional Publishers price eBooks Inefficiently
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Publishers used Apples entrance into eBooks to literally
fix prices for eBooks at $14.99
Source: The 2010s were supposed to bring the ebook revolution. It never quite came. - Vox
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Authors should care about this because research on book sales
from 2014 showed that $14.99 is NOT a sweet spot for eBook
sales
Source: Data Guy on Price Points - Hugh Howey
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Amazon is the most
important player
because they own
the customer BUT
big authors will
likely leverage tools
like Shopify and
Kickstarter for pre-
sales and special
edition
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Opportunity: Brandon Sanderson did a Kickstarter pre-
sale and found that bundles drive more sales
Source: Some FAQs You Might Enjoy | Brandon Sanderson
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Reach Out
I want to inspire more internet-native writers to publish
their own books earlier in their journeys and see the
upsides of self-publishing
[email protected]
@p_millerd