何が知りたいのか？〜どのぐらい？に答える〜（医学統計学・疫学セミナー）

by Shuntaro Sato

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ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕ ௕࡚େֶපӃྟচݚڀηϯλʔ TIVOUBSPTBUP!OBHBTBLJVBDKQ Կ͕஌Γ͍͔ͨʁ Ͳͷ͙Β͍ʁʹ౴͑Δ

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2VFTUJPOʢʣ 2 ߴ݂ѹͷױऀΛର৅ʹɺ৽ن߱ѹༀʹޮՌ͕͋Δ͔ϓϥηϘΛରরʹൺֱ͢Δ ϥϯμϜׂ෇ ৽ༀ ϓϥηϘ 1SJNBSZFOEQPJOU ׂ෇͔࣌Βिؒޙͷ   ऩॖظ݂ѹʢ4#1ʣͷมԽྔ 3$5 3FTVMU / ͲͷΑ͏ʹൺֱ͠·͔͢ʁ

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"OTXFSʢʣ 3 3FTVMU ᶃ ܈͝ͱͷฏۉ஋ͱඪ४ภࠩΛࢉग़ ᶄ ͦͷࠩͱ$*Λࢉग़ ᶅ UUFTUͰݕఆ͢Δ /FX   .FBO 4% 1MBDFCP   .FBO 4% %J ff FSFODF   &TUJNBUF $* 1 UP ͜͜͸୯ճؼϞσϧͰ΋0,

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2VFTUJPOʢʣ 4 ͋Δूஂʹ͓͚ΔɺЍ(51Λҿञश׳ͷ༗ແͰൺֱ͢Δ 1SJNBSZFOEQPJOU Ѝ(51 3FTVMU ҿञ܈ ͲͷΑ͏ʹൺֱ͠·͔͢ʁ ඇҿञ܈ WT

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"OTXFSʢʣ 5 ᶃ ܈͝ͱͷதԝ஋ͱൣғΛࢉग़ ᶄ 8JMDPYPO`TSBOLTVNUFTUͰݕఆ͢Δ ESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF /PESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF 1 UP UP 3FTVMU

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6 ༗ҙࠩ΋ग़ͨ͠ɺΊͰͨ͠ΊͰͨ͠

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7 ͑ʁɹͦΕͰ͍͍ͷʁ

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8 3FTVMU ᶃ ܈͝ͱͷฏۉ஋ͱඪ४ภࠩΛࢉग़ ᶄ ͦͷࠩͱ$*Λࢉग़ ᶅ UUFTUͰݕఆ͢Δ /FX   .FBO 4% 1MBDFCP   .FBO 4% %J ff FSFODF   &TUJNBUF $* 1 UP

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9 ᶃ ܈͝ͱͷதԝ஋ͱൣғΛࢉग़   ᶄ 8JMDPYPO`TSBOLTVNUFTUͰݕఆ͢Δ ESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF /PESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF 1 UP UP 3FTVMU

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10 ܈͝ͱͷฏۉ஋ͷࠩΛࢉग़ɺUݕఆͰࠩʹ౷ܭֶతͳҙຯ͕͋Δ͔ධՁ /FX   .FBO 4% 1MBDFCP   .FBO 4% %J ff FSFODF   &TUJNBUF $* 1 UP Ͳͷ͘Β͍ҧ͏͔ʹ౴͑ͯΔ Ͳͷ͘Β͍ʁ

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11 ESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF /PESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF 1 UP UP ͜ͷൺֱ͔Β෼͔Δ͜ͱ ܈͝ͱͷதԝ஋ͱൣғɺ෼෍ͷҐஔ͕ҧ͏ Ͳͷ͘Β͍ҧ͏͔Θ͔Βͳ͍

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12 Ͳ͏͢Δͷʁ

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13 ESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF /PESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF %J ff FSFOÜ &TUJNBUF $* 1 UP UP UP ର਺ม׵ ର਺ม׵͠ɺઢܗճؼϞσϧͷଥ౰ੑΛ্͛Δ ̈໨తม਺Λࣗવର਺ม׵ͨ͠Ѝ(51ɺઆ໌ม਺Λҿञͷ༗ແͱͨ͠ઢܗճؼϞσϧͰਪఆ

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14 ESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF /PESJOL   .FEJBO 3BOHF %J ff FSFOÜ &TUJNBUF $* 1 UP UP UP ໨తม਺Λର਺ม׵ͨ͠ઢܗճؼϞσϧͷղऍ ̈໨తม਺Λࣗવର਺ม׵ͨ͠Ѝ(51ɺઆ໌ม਺Λҿञͷ༗ແͱͨ͠ઢܗճؼϞσϧͰਪఆ ඇҿञ܈ͱൺֱͯ͠ɺҿञ܈͸Ѝ(51͕ฏۉతʹେ͖͍ ln Y = α + βdrink ln Ydrink=1 − ln Ydrink=0 = ln Y1 − ln Y0 = β ln Y1 − ln Y0 = ln( Y1 Y0 ) = ln( Y0 + Y1 − Y0 Y0 ) = ln(1 + Y1 − Y0 Y0 ) ≃ Y1 − Y0 Y0 "OHSJTU+% 1JTDILF+4.BTUFSJOHNFUSJDT5IFQBUIGSPNDBVTFUPF ff FDU1SJODFUPO6OJWFSTJUZ1SFTT%FD ςΠϥʔల։ΑΓ

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15 ଞʹ΋͜Μͳҧ࿨ײ ؆୯ͳൺֱ͸ϊϯύϥɺͰ΋ޙ൒͸ճؼ෼ੳ ओʹύϥϝτϦοΫ Uݕఆ ճؼ෼ੳ 8JMDPYPOݕఆ ճؼ෼ੳ ύϥϝτϦοΫ ύϥϝτϦοΫ ϊϯύϥ ύϥϝτϦοΫ

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16 Ͳͷ͘Β͍ʁʹ౴͑Δ ,FZ.FTTBHF ʢՄೳͳൣғͰʣ