気軽に手に入る成績データで野球分析をしてみた

by kuma127

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2018/12/12 ؾܰʹखʹೖΔ੒੷σʔλͰ ໺ٿ෼ੳΛͯ͠Έͨ ʙࢁా఩ਓͷ෮׆ͱϑϥΠϘʔϧֵ໋Λఴ͑ͯʙ ͘·ͽ TwitterIDɿ@kumappp27

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ࣗݾ঺հ ✤ ʮ͘·ͽʯͱ͍͍·͢ ✤ TwitterID:@kumappp27 ✤ ๭ύϦʔάΦϑΟγϟϧεϙϯαʔاۀͰWebΤϯδχΞ ΍ͬͯ·͢ ✤ ݹాPM࣌୅͔ΒͷͪͳϠΫ ✤ ಉ͍೥ʹࠓ೥FAࢢ৔Λ૽͕ͤͨ˓˓બखͱ˓બख͕͍Δ ʢϠΫϧτͰ͍͏ͱখ઒౤ख΍தଜબखͳͲʣ

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ࠓγʔζϯ΋ɺԠԉ͓ർΕ༷Ͱͨ͠ʂ

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ࠓγʔζϯͷ;Γ͔͑Γ ✤ ͪͳϠΫతʹ͸େຬ଍ͷ γʔζϯͰͨ͠ ✤ ੨໦ͷ෮ؼɺࢁాͷ෮׆ɺ ݪथཧͷҰຊཱͪ…ͳͲ ✤ ·ͨएखͷ੒௕ʹ΋໨Λ ݟுΔ΋ͷ͕͋Γ·ͨ͠

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ͳ͓

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ຊ೔ͷ͓୊

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ؾܰʹखʹೖΔ੒੷σʔλͰ໺ٿ෼ੳΛͯ͠Έͨ

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͓࿩ͷ֓ཁ ✤ ͱΓ͋͑ͣ໺ٿͷσʔλ෼ੳ͕͍͚ͨ͠Ͳɺ೔ຊͰ͸MLBͷΑ͏ͳ ৄࡉͳσʔλ͕Ұൠެ։͞Εͯͳ͍ͷͰɺϠ˓ʔͷΑ͏ͳ୭Ͱ΋ݟ ΕΔ੒੷ʢ༡ΰɾݟࡾৼͳͲʣΛ࢖ͬͯͰ͖Δ͚ͩ෼ੳͯ͠ΈΔ ͧʂ͓ͬͯ࿩Ͱ͢ ✤ ػցֶशͳͲߴ౓ͳٕज़ͷ࿩͸ͳ͍ͷͰѱ͔͠Βͣ ✤ ໺ٿքͰ͸࢖͍ݹ͞Εͨ࿩ͩͱ͸ࢥ͏ͷͰɺ؍ઓͷࡘఔ౓ʹͲ͏ͧ ✤ 6෼ͳͷʹΉͬͪΌεϥΠυ࡞ͬͯ͠·ͬͨͷͰۦ͚଍ؾຯͰߦ͖ ·͢ʢ৭ʑ෼ੳͯ͠Δͱָ͍ͯͭ͘͠…

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͓୊ͷϫέ ✤ ڈ೥Α͘ݟͨ΍ͭ ࢁా·ͨΈͷ͞Μͯ͠Δʂ ෆௐͳબखͬͯಉ͡Α͏ͳܗͰΞ΢τ ʹͳΔޫܠΛΑ͘ݟͨʢؾ͕ͨ͠ʣͷ Ͱɺ͡Ό͋ௐ΂ͯΈΑ͏ʂͱ͍͏ͷ͕ ΩοΧέ

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ʮଧ੮݁Ռʯʹ͍ͭͯ ✤ ʮ༡ΰʯʮݟࡾৼʯͳͲͷ݁Ռ͔Β͋Δఔ౓ঢ়گ͕ਪ ଌͰ͖Δ ✤ ༡ΰͳΒɺӈଧऀͳΒʮҾͬுͬͯస͕ͨ͠ʢͻ͔ͬ ͚ͨʁʣʯதඈͳΒʮηϯλʔํ޲ʹଧ্ͪ͛ͨʢਊ Λ֎ͨ͠ʁʣʯͳͲʢώοτܥ͸৘ใগͳΊͰ͕͢ ✤ →֤ଧ੮݁Ռ਺Λूܭ͢Δ͜ͱͰόοςΟϯάΞϓϩʔ ν΍ෆௐͳ࣌ͷ܏޲͕͔ͭΊΔͷͰ͸ͳ͍͔ʁ

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Special Thanks ✤ ࠓճ෼ੳ͢Δʹ͋ͨͬͯݩͱͳΔσʔλΛఏڙ͍ͯ͠ ͍ͨͩͨʢͱ͍͏͔ϦϯΫϑϦʔͩͬͨͷͰউखʹར ༻ͤͯ͞௖͍ͨʣʮσʔλͰָ͠Ήϓϩ໺ٿʯ༷ ✤ ϦϯΫɿhttp://baseballdata.jp/ ✤ શଧ੮σʔλΛ͸͡Ί༷ʑͳσʔλ͕ॆ࣮͍ͯ͠Δૉ ੖Β͍͠αΠτͰ͢ʢએ఻ʣ

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෼ੳͯ͠Έͨʙࢁా఩ਓฤ

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ࢁా఩ਓ෮׆ͷཧ༝Λ୳Δ ✤ ࠓ೥ɺલ೥ͷෆৼ͔Βݟࣄ෮׆͠3౓໨ͱͳΔτϦϓ ϧεϦʔΛୡ੒ͨ͠զ͕ϠΫϧτͷࢁా఩ਓબख ✤ ࠓ೥ͱલ೥ͱͰଧ੮݁ՌʹͲͷΑ͏ͳ͕ࠩ͋ͬͨͷ͔ʁ ·͔ͨͦ͜Β෮׆ͷཧ༝Λ୳Εͳ͍͔ʁ ✤ ͬͦ͘͞σʔλΛݟͯΈ͍ͨͱࢥ͍·͢

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ଧ੮݁ՌΛूܭ͢Δʹ͋ͨͬͯ ✤ ଧ੮݁ՌΛԼهͷΑ͏ʹ෼ྨ͠·͢ 1.ଧٿํ޲ʢࠨɾதɾӈʣ 2.֯౓ʢϑϥΠɺΰϩɺϥΠφʔʣ 3.࢛ࢮٿ 4.ࡾৼ ✤ ҆ଧ͸ํ޲͸ผͱͯ݁͠Ռ͚ͩͰ͸ϑϥΠ͔ΰϩ͔൑அͰ͖ ͳ͍ͷͰɺʮෆ໌ʯͱக͠·͢ʢHR͸ϑϥΠѻ͍ʣ

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෼ྨͨ͠σʔλ͕ͪ͜Β ྆೥ͱ΋630ଧ੮΄ͲͳͷͰɺ1% = 6.3ճ ڈ೥ʹൺ΂ͯࠨํ޲΁ͷΰϩʢओʹ༡ΰɺࡾΰʣ͕ݮΓɺ ࠨํ޲΁ͷϑϥΠʢओʹࠨඈɺࠨຊʣ͕૿͑ͨ

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ෆௐظ͸ΰϩ͕૿͑Δʁ ✤ Έͨײ͡Լهͷ݁Ռ͕ڈ೥ͱൺ΂ͯݮ͍ͬͯΔΑ͏ 1.Ҿֻ͚ͬΔʢࠨଆ΁ͷΰϩʣ 2.ԡ͞ΕΔʢӈଆ΁ͷϑϥΠʣ ✤ ෆௐظ͸ڈ೥ͱಉ͡Α͏ͳଧ੮݁Ռͷׂ߹ʹͳ͍ͬͯ Δͷ͔ʁͦΕͱ΋ಉ͡ෆௐͰ΋த਎͸શ͘ҧ͏ͷ͔ʁ

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ظؒΛ͠΅Δ ✤ ࢀߟ·Ͱʹɺࠓ೥ͷதͰ 1.ෆௐ݄ͩͬͨʢ3ɾ4݄ɺ.264 6݄ɺ.253ʣ 2.޷ௐ݄ͩͬͨʢ5݄ɺ.326 7݄ɺ.425ʣ ✤ ͜ΕΒΛ߹ࢉͯ͠ൺ΂ͯΈΔ ✤ ʢͪͳΈʹෆௐظͱ͍͍ͳ͕ΒOPS .900͘Β͍͋Δʣ

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޷ௐظͱෆௐظͷൺֱ ෆௐظ͸ࡾৼ਺͕͘͢͝ଟ͍͕ɺ ڈ೥ͷΑ͏ʹࠨํ޲ͷΰϩ͕͘͢͝૿͑ͨΓɺʢΉ͠Ζ݁ߏݮͬͯΔʣ ࠨɾதํ޲ͷϑϥΠ਺͕ݮͬͨΓ͸͍ͯ͠ͳ͍

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·ͱΊΔͱ ✤ ෮׆ͨ͠ࠓ೥͸ڈ೥ʹൺ΂ 1.ࠨํ޲ͷΰϩ͕ݮͬͨ 2.ࠨதํ޲ͷϑϥΠ͕૿͑ͨ 3.্ه܏޲͸ɺ޷ௐظɾෆௐظ΋มΘΓ͕΄΅ͳ͠ ✤ ݁࿦ɿ୹͘·ͱΊΔͱʮҾͬுΓํ޲ʹଧ্ͪ͛Δҙ ͕ࣝపఈͰ͖͍ͯΔʯͷ͕෮׆ͷཧ༝Ͱ͸ʁ

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དྷ೥ͷࢁా఩ਓΛݟकΔʹ͋ͨͬͯ ✤ ࡾৼ͕ଟͯۤ͘͠ΜͰΔ͋ͨΓ͸·ͩେৎ෉ ✤ ໨ʹݟ͑ͯࠨํ޲ͷΰϩɾӈํ޲΁ͷϑϥΠ͕૿͑ͨ Γ͠ͳ͍ݶΓɺདྷق΋҆ହ…ͳ͸ͣ ✤ དྷق΋՚ྷͳҾͬுͬͨHRΛظ଴͠·͠ΐ͏

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෼ੳͯ͠ΈͨʙϑϥΠϘʔϧֵ໋ฤ

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ϑϥΠϘʔϧֵ໋ɺى͖ͯΔʁ ✤ ࡢ೥ɺMLBΛ੮רͨ͠ʮϑϥΠϘʔϧֵ໋ʯ ✤ ελοτΩϟετ౳ͷొ৔Ͱৄࡉͳσʔλ͕औΕΔΑ ͏ʹͳͬͨ݁ՌɺϑϥΠΛଧͭ͜ͱ͕༗ޮͰ͋Δͱ൑ ໌͠ɺଧऀͷେ෦෼͕ϑϥΠૂ͍Λ࢝ΊͨΞϨͰ͢ ✤ ೔ຊͰ΋޿ౡҎ֎ͷ11ٿஂ͕ຊڌ஍ʹτϥοΫϚϯΛ ಋೖ͠·ͨ͠͠ɺ೔ຊͰ͸Ͳ͏ͳΜͰ͠ΐʁ

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ͱɺௐ΂Α͏ͱͨ͠໼ઌʹ͜Μͳهࣄ͕ ग़యɿhttps://full-count.jp/2018/11/23/post254049/

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ͦΒ΋͏ΞϨʢωλόϨʣΑ ✤ ·͋೔ถ໺ٿͷ਺ࢼ߹ͷ࿩ͳͷͰ͋·Γؾʹͤͣ… ✤ Ή͠ΖʮϗϯϚ͔ʁʯͱௐ΂ͨ͘ͳΔܹࢗΛ͘Εͨ ʢ਒͑੠

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୯७ͳຊྥଧ཰ൺֱ͔Β ✤ ※ຊྥଧ཰ɿ1ຊྥଧ͋ͨΓʹ͔͔Δଧ਺ɺগͳ͍΄ͲHR͕ଟ͍ 2018೥ 2017೥ 2016೥ ηɾϦʔά 35.3 40.2 40.6 ύɾϦʔά 33.7 36.5 45.8 ※খ਺఺ҎԼୈ2ҐͰ࢛ࣺޒೖ

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݁ߏݮͬͯΔ… ✤ ୯७ͳຊྥଧ཰ͩͱ͔͋Β͞·ʹݮগ͍ͯ͠Δɺͭ· ΓHRͷׂ߹͕૿͍͑ͯΔ ✤ ಛʹηͷ্ঢ཰͕ੌ·͍͡ʢԣ඿ͱڊਓ͕ಛʹ৳ͼͯ ͍Δɺࠓ೥ʹ͍ؔͯ͑͠͹ڪΒ͘ιτͱԬຊޮՌ͔ͱ ✤ ΞϓϩʔνʹࣗମʹมԽ͸͋Δͷ͔ʁ

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Let’sूܭ ✤ 2018೥ͱ2017೥ɺ͍ͭͰʹ2016೥΋ަ͑ͯɺͦͷ೥ͷ نఆଧ੮ͷ൒෼Ҏ্ଧ੮ʹཱͬͨଧऀΛର৅ʹूܭ͠ ·͢ ✤ ଧ੮݁ՌΛΰϩɺϑϥΠɺϥΠφʔɺࡾৼɺ࢛ࢮٿɺ ෆ໌ʢ΄΅΄΅ώοτʣͷ6ͭʹ෼ྨ͠·͢

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2018೥ ✤ ΰϩɿ26% ✤ ϑϥΠɿ24% ✤ ࡾৼɿ17%

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2017೥ ✤ ΰϩɿ26% ✤ ϑϥΠɿ24% ✤ ࡾৼɿ18%

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2016೥ ✤ ΰϩɿ26% ✤ ϑϥΠɿ23% ✤ ࡾৼɿ17%

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ੴࢁହஓʢϠʣͳΈͷ҆ఆײ ✤ ԁάϥϑͩͱͼͬ͘Γ͢Δ͘Β͍มΘͬͯͳ͍ ✤ ΍͸ΓٿքશମͰ͸ϑϥΠϘʔϧֵ໋͸ى͖͍ͯͳ͍ ͱߟ͑Δͷ͕ແ೉͔

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ϐοΫΞοϓ ✤ ݸਓϨϕϧͰ͸ͱ͍͏͜ͱͰɺڈ೥ͱൺ΂ͯຊྥଧ཰ ͷ্ঢ཰͕ੌ·͍͡2ਓΛϐοΫΞοϓ͠ௐࠪ͠·͢ ✤ ର৅͸ԼهͷબखͰ͢ʢӈଆ͸ڈ೥ͱࠓ೥ͷຊྥଧ཰ ͷมԽʣ 1.ٶ㟒 හ࿠ ಺໺खʢYBʣɿ2017೥ : 32.0 → 2018೥ : 19.7 2.ؙ Ղߒ ֎໺खʢCʣɿ2017೥ : 24.2 → 2018೥ : 11.1

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ٶ㟒બखʹ͍ͭͯ ✤ ڈ೥ͷटҐଧऀ ✤ ࠓ೥ຊྥଧ਺͕15→28ͱ΄ ΅ഒ૿ ✤ ૿ྔʹΑΔεΠϯάεϐʔ υ޲্͕HR਺ܹ૿ͷཧ༝ ͷҰͭͩͱ͔

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ٶ㟒બखͷൺֱ ϑϥΠͰ͸ͳ͘ɺΰϩ཰্͕ঢ ࡾৼͱ࢛ࢮٿ཰΋ݮ͓ͬͯΓɺ όοςΟϯά͕ੵۃతʹͳͬͨΑ͏ʹݟ͑Δ

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ؙબखʹ͍ͭͯ ✤ ڈ೥ͱࠓ೥ͷMVP ✤ ڈ೥ͷ23ຊ͕ΩϟϦΞϋΠ ͕ͩͬͨࠓ೥͸ͳΜͱ39ຊ ✤ લड़ͷ௨Γ޿ౡ͸τϥοΫ ϚϯΛಋೖ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͨΊ Ұݟؔ܎ͳͦ͞͏͕ͩ…

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ؙબखͷൺֱ ΰϩ΋ϑϥΠ΋ݮগ͍ͯ͠Δ Ұํɺݩʑଟ͍ࡾৼ΍࢛ࢮٿ͕͞Βʹ૿͑ɺ HRΛؚΊΔͱΠϯϓϨʔͰͳ͍݁Ռ͕ա൒਺Λ௒͑ΔτϯσϞ੒੷

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2ਓʹ͍ͭͯͷߟ࡯ ✤ ٶ㟒બख΋ؙબख΋ϑϥΠ཰Λ্͛Δ͜ͱͳ͘ຊྥଧ ཰Λٸ্ঢ͍ͤͯ͞Δ ͭ·ΓɺϑϥΠΛಛผҙ͍ࣝͯ͠Δ༁Ͱ͸ͳ͍ →୯७ʹεΠϯάεϐʔυ͕૿͍ͯ͠Δʁ

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Α͏͢Δʹࠓ·Ͱͷ࿩Λ·ͱΊΔͱ ✤ ೔ຊͰ͸ϑϥΠϘʔϧֵ໋͸΍͸Γى͖ͯͳͦ͞͏ʂ ✤ ͔͠͠ຊྥଧ཰͸͜͜3೥Ͱ೥ʑݮগ͍ͯ͠Δʂ ✤ ͭ·ΓɺڪΒ͘೔ຊͰ͸ଧٿ֯౓Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺεΠϯά εϐʔυΛҙࣝͨ͠ϚοεϧεΠϯά͕ྲྀߦ͍ͬͯΔ ͷͰ͸ͳ͍͔ʂʢʁʣ ※ը૾ʹಛʹҙຯ͸͋Γ·ͤΜ

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͜Ε͚ͩ͸఻͔͑ͨͬͨ ✤ དྷ೥ͷࢁా఩ਓʹ͸ͥͻຌଧ΋ؚΊɺશଧ੮஫໨ͯ͠ ΈͯΈΑ͏ ✤ ೔ຊͰ͸ϚοεϧϘʔϧֵ໋͕ى͖͍ͯΔʂʂʂ ظ଴ͷ৽ਓˠ

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͝੩ௌɺ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠ʂ