Electrifying Heat Patterns of electricity consumption in electrically heated households in the UK and New Zealand Ben Anderson (@dataknut) – Universities of Southampton & Otago Tom Rushby – University of Southampton Michael Jack – University of Otago

The menu ● The problem ● The solution ● But...? ● What do we know? ● What do we need to do?

indicate that the growth of central heating has 90 Babcock, Q and Irving, S, (undated), Energy Performance of Modern Conservatories. London: CIBSE. Chart 21: Final energy consumption and fuel use in domestic buildings, 2011 Space heating 60% Gas 65% Bio-energy and waste 1% Oil 7% Solid fuel 2% Electricity 25% Heat sold 0% Water heating 18% Lighting and appliances 19% Cooking/ catering 3% Source: DECC The (UK) problem Energy for heat Gas for energy Source: DECC (2013) The Future of Heat

The (UK) solution Electrify heat – Ground Source HP – Air Source HP Source: DECC (2013) The Future of Heat But H 2 ?

But... We might be adding more! – $$ – Dirty Source: Staffell (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.037 UK electricity decarbonisation 2009 - 2015 UK electricity generation 2009 vs 2015

The menu ● The problem – Emissions and heat ● The solution – Electrifying heat (& decarbonising electricity) ● But – What might this do to ‘peak electricity’ demand? ● What do we know? ● What do we need to do?

‘Electric Heat’ in use: Data ● South East England – Stratified random sample – N ~= 4000 households – http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/save-data-sources/ ● New Plymouth/Hawkes Bay – Convenience sample – N ~= 40 households – https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 Monitoring Data cloud Analysts • W every 10s • Wh every 15 min • W every 60s

‘Electric Heat’ in use No survey (not plotted) 906 households Gas 2,902 • 89.6% Oil, wood, solid fuels 171 • 5.3% Electricity: storage heaters 149 • 4.6% Electricity: heat pump 18 • 0.7%

‘Electric Heat’ in use: Seasons ● South East England ● N = 3,240 ● New Plymouth/Hawke’s Bay ● N = 27

‘Electric Heat’ in use: N people nPeople UK - storage UK – heat pumps NZ 1 40 5 2 2 50 8 4 3 27 2 8 4+ 32 3 12

‘Electric Heat’ in use: Children Children UK - storage UK – heat pumps NZ 0 104 15 19 1+ 45 3 7 4

‘Electric Heat’ in use: Work Employment UK - storage UK – heat pumps F/T Employment 49 5 P/T employment 23 3 Retired 41 7 Self-employed 9 3 Other 21 - Unemployed 6 - 4

The menu ● The problem – Emissions and heat ● The solution – Electrifying heat (& decarbonising electricity) ● But – What might this do to ‘peak electricity’ demand? ● What do we know? – Not a lot... ● What do we need to do? But the peak(s) will get peakier

What do we need? ● More data! – Bigger samples (* 10) – Representative samples – Comfort (heat/cool) habits ● Real usage patterns – Messy humans not tidy simulations ● Thank you! – @dataknut – [email protected] / [email protected] $$$ Only 170 households