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S O M E T H O U G H T S O N
M O D E L I N G L E G A L SY ST E M S
@computational
professor daniel martin katz danielmartinkatz.com
Illinois tech - chicago kent law computationallegalstudies.com https://bit.ly/3yxhY2e
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TO DAY L E T M E B E G I N
W I T H A N O B V I O U S
STAT E M E N T …
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W H I C H ( F O R S O M E )
M I G H T A L S O B E A
P R OVO CAT I V E
STAT E M E N T …
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L AW I S
E N G I N E E R I N G
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H O W E V E R , TO DAY
I T I S A PA RT I C U L A R
TY P E O F
E N G I N E E R I N G
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I M P L E M E N T E D I N A
PA RT I C U L A R
M A N N E R
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T H E Q U E ST I O N I S
TO W H AT E X T E N T
T H E F I E L D O F L AW
M I G H T B E N E F I T
F R O M
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I N S I G H T S
O F F E R E D B Y T H E
T R A D I T I O N A L
ST E M
ACA D E M I C
F I E L D S
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F O R T H E B E N E F I T
O F O U R
M U LT I D I S C I P L I N A R Y
AU D I E N C E
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L E T U S STA RT W I T H
T H E B R OA D E ST
P O S S I B L E
Q U E ST I O N
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W H AT I S T H E
P U R P O S E O F L AW
A N D L E G A L
I N ST I T U T I O N S ?
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S O C I E T I E S C R E AT E
R U L E S TO T R Y TO
G OV E R N VA R I O U S
F O R M S O F S O C I A L ,
E CO N O M I C A N D
P O L I T I CA L B E H AV I O R
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S O C I E T I E S C R E AT E
G OV E R N A N C E
I N ST I T U T I O N S
D E VOT E D TO VA R I O U S
L E G A L TA S K S
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R U L E M A K I N G
R U L E I N T E R P R E TAT I O N
R U L E E N F O R C E M E N T
T H E S E TA S K S I N C LU D E
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O F CO U R S E A S
T H I S I N VO LV E S
H U M A N S T H E S E
P R O C E S S E S A R E
N OT N E C E S S A R I LY
N E U T R A L
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A N D TO P D O W N
G OV E R N M E N TA L
R U L E S A R E FA R
F R O M T H E O N LY
D R I V E R S O F
B E H AV I O R
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B U T T H E G U I D I N G
P U R P O S E I S TO
H E L P E N G I N E E R
C E RTA I N C L A S S E S
O F B E H AV I O R
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A N D P R E V E N T /
M I N I M I Z E OT H E R
F O R M S O F
B E H AV I O R
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I H O P E YO U CA N
S E E A L R E A DY T H AT
T H I S I S AC T UA L LY
A G R A N D
E N G I N E E R I N G
C H A L L E N G E
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T H I S C H A L L E N G E I S
O N E TO W H I C H
T H O S E B E YO N D
T H E T R A D I T I O N A L
F I E L D O F L AW
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A R E W E L L P O I S E D TO
CO L L A B O R AT I V E LY
CO N T R I B U T E
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BY WAY OF
INTRODUCTION
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I AM AN
ACADEMIC
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I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
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I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
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I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
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I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
https://legaltechcenter.de/en/index.html
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I AM A
TEACHER
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I AM A
TEACHER
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I AM A
TEACHER
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I AM A
THOUGHT
LEADER
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I AM A
THOUGHT
LEADER
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I AM IN THE
LEGAL
INNOVATION
AND VENTURE
SPACE AS AN
ADVISOR
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LexPredict.com
CONSULTANT
& ADVISOR
TO THE
FORTUNE
1000,
AM LAW 200,
LEGAL TECH
STARTUPS,
ETC.
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I AM A SUCCESSFUL
ENTREPRENEUR
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I MENTION ALL OF
THIS ONLY SO THAT
YOU MIGHT BE ABLE
TO ORIENT SOME OF
MY COMMENTARY
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AND UNDERSTAND
THAT I AM *NOT* A
MERE SPECTATOR OR
A COMMENTATOR BUT
RATHER AN ACTIVE
PARTICIPANT …
#SKININTHEGAME
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SO TODAY ALLOW ME
TO SHARE SOME OF MY
NOTES FROM THE FIELD
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PA RT I
CO N F R O N T I N G
T H E CO M P L E X I TY
C H A L L E N G E
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W H E T H E R YO U A R E A
L A R G E M U LT I N AT I O N A L
CO R P O R AT I O N , A
S M A L L B U S I N E S S O R
A N I N D I V I D UA L
C I T I Z E N …
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L AW H A S A
CO M P L E X I TY
C H A L L E N G E …
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IF YOU TAKE A STEP BACK
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THE REAL ANIMATING
DRIVER IN THE DEMAND
FOR UNITS OF LEGAL
PRODUCTION
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IS COMPLEXITY
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SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL COMPLEXITY
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MANIFESTS ITSELF IN
OUR DOMAIN AS
LEGAL COMPLEXITY
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WHILE IT IS
SOMEWHAT HARD TO
PRECISELY DEFINE …
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VIRTUALLY EVERY WAY
YOU MIGHT CONSIDER IT
LEGAL COMPLEXITY
HAS GROWN
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DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, CORINNA
COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF & DIRK
HARTUNG, COMPLEX SOCIETIES AND THE
GROWTH OF THE LAW, 10 SCIENTIFIC
REPORTS 18737 (2020)
CORINNA COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF,
DIRK HARTUNG, MICHAEL BOMMARITO, &
DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, MEASURING LAW
OVER TIME: A NETWORK ANALYTICAL
FRAMEWORK WITH AN APPLICATION TO
STATUTES AND REGULATIONS IN THE
UNITED STATES AND GERMANY, FRONT.
PHYS. (2021 FORTHCOMING)
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SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN LAWS AND REGULATIONS
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SO THE QUESTION IS
HOW TO MATCH THAT
COMPLEXITY WITH THE
APPROPRIATE
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COMPLEXITY
MITIGATION
TACTICS …
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MIXTURES OF PEOPLE,
PROCESS AND
TECHNOLOGY
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DESIGNING MORE
SCALABLE SYSTEMS
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BECAUSE THE LEGACY
MODEL HAS BEEN
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TO USE LOTS OF LABOR
TO SOLVE
HIGH COMPLEXITY
PROBLEMS
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BUT THAT APPEARS
TO BE REACHING
ITS PRACTICAL
AND ECONOMIC
LIMITS
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THE APPROACH NEEDS
TO BE MORE
FUNDAMENTAL
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AND LEVERAGE THE BEST
OF SCIENCE AND TECH
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http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2017/03/-complexity-mitigation-strategies-
for-law-law-land-and-beyond-and-some-other-thoughts-on-hadfield-su.html#more
SOME THOUGHTS ON
LEGAL COMPLEXITY
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
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PA RT I I
S I X F L AVO R S
O F M O D E L I N G
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M O D E L S O F
VA R I O U S F L AVO R S
CA N B E S E E N
AC R O S S S C I E N C E
A N D E N G I N E E R I N G
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T H U S , I WA N T TO
D I S C U S S A S E R I E S
O F I D E A S
A S S O C I AT E D W I T H
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T H E M O D E L I N G O F
L E G A L SY ST E M S
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T H E DA K S H C E N T R E O F E XC E L L E N C E F O R L AW A N D T E C H N O LO GY AT I I T- D E L H I ( D CO E ) WA S
E STA B L I S H E D I N O C TO B E R 2 0 2 0 A S A CO L L A B O R AT I O N B E T W E E N I N D I A N I N ST I T U T E O F
T E C H N O LO GY ( I I T ) D E L H I A N D DA K S H S O C I E TY, B E N G A LU R U
H I G H L I G H T S F R O M A R E C E N T CA L L F O R P R OJ E C T S
A . M O D E L I N G T H E J U ST I C E SY ST E M
B . TO O L TO M A K E L AW S M O R E ACC E S S I B L E TO
C I T I Z E N S , A N D CA S E D U R AT I O N & O U TCO M E P R E D I C TO R
C . CA S E F LO W M A N AG E M E N T
D. S C I E N T I F I C S C H E D U L I N G O F CA S E S & WO R K
A L LO CAT I O N F O R J U D G E S
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A . M O D E L I N G T H E J U ST I C E SY ST E M
B . TO O L TO M A K E L AW S M O R E
ACC E S S I B L E TO C I T I Z E N S , A N D CA S E
D U R AT I O N & O U TCO M E P R E D I C TO R
C . CA S E F LO W M A N AG E M E N T
D. S C I E N T I F I C S C H E D U L I N G O F CA S E S
& WO R K A L LO CAT I O N F O R J U D G E S
A L L F O U R O F T H E S E
AC T UA L LY I N VO LV E M O D E L S
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S O W H AT I S
M O D E L I N G ?
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T H E T E R M TA K E S O N
D I F F E R E N T
M E A N I N G S AC R O S S
T H E S C I E N C E S
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H E R E A R E S O M E
E L E M E N T S
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A M O D E L I S A
R E P R E S E N TAT I O N O F A SY ST E M
L I K E LY I N VO LV E S A L E V E L
O F A B ST R AC T I O N
CA N B E U S E D TO U N D E R STA N D B OT H
SY ST E M CO M P O N E N T S A N D T H E I R
CO N N E C T I O N TO O N E A N OT H E R
T H E R E A R E VA R I O U S
A P P R OAC H E S O N E CA N U S E
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AT L E A ST S I X
D I F F E R E N T F O R M S
O F “ M O D E L I N G ”
A R E R E L E VA N T F O R
L E G A L SY ST E M S
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R E M E M B E R E AC H
O F T H E S E H A S A N
ACCO M PA N Y I N G
M E N TA L M O D E L . .
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B U T L E T U S STA RT AT T H E
M AC R O S CA L E M O D E L S
A N D WO R K TO WA R D T H E
M I C R O S CA L E
M I C R O
M E S O
M AC R O
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M O D E L I N G TY P E 1
M O D E L I N G T H E
L AW I T S E L F
( AG G R E G AT E
L E V E L )
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I H AV E A L R E A DY
G I V E N A B I T O F A
P R E V I E W O F T H I S
A P P R OAC H
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TA K E T H E L E G A L
R U L E S T H E M S E LV E S
A N D M O D E L T H E M
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B OT H STAT I CA L LY
A N D A S A
F U N C T I O N O F T I M E
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L AW S CA N O F T E N B E M O D E L E D A S
CO M B I N AT I O N A H I E R A R C H Y, R E F E R E N C E
N E T WO R K , S E Q U E N C E G R A P H
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H E R E A R E S O M E
E X A M P L E S …
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Boulet, Romain, Pierre Mazzega, and Daniele
Bourcier. "A network approach to the French system
of legal codes—part I: analysis of a dense network."
Artificial Intelligence and Law 19.4 (2011): 333-355.
Boulet, Romain, Pierre Mazzega, and Danièle
Bourcier. "Network approach to the French
system of legal codes part II: the role of the
weights in a network." Artificial Intelligence
and Law 26.1 (2018): 23-47.
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Koniaris, Marios, Ioannis Anagnostopoulos, and Yannis
Vassiliou. "Network Analysis in the Legal Domain: A
complex model for European Union legal sources."
Journal of Complex Networks 6.2 (2017): 243-268.
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M. Bommarito. & D. Katz. A
Mathematical Approach to the
Study of the United States Code.
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and
its Applications, 389(19),
4195-4200 (2010).
D. Katz & M. Bommarito. Measuring the
complexity of the law: the United
States Code. Artificial intelligence and
law, 22(4), 337-374. (2014)
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H E R E W E
I N V E ST I G AT E D A
S I N G L E
S N A P S H OT O F
T H E 2 0 1 0 U N I T E D
STAT E S CO D E I N
A N E F F O RT TO
E X P LO R E I T S
CO M P L E X I TY
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THEN WE STUDIED THE
STATUTORY LAW OF TWO LARGE
COUNTRIES OVER 25 YEARS
DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, CORINNA
COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF & DIRK
HARTUNG, COMPLEX SOCIETIES AND THE
GROWTH OF THE LAW, 10 SCIENTIFIC
REPORTS 18737 (2020)
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LEVERAGED INFO MAP
(MAP EQUATION)
TO ALGORITHMICALLY
REORGANIZE THE
STATUTORY LAW INTO
MORE COHERENT
CATEGORIES (TOPICS)
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MAP EQUATION
MAP EQUATION SOURCE
ROSVALL, M., AXELSSON, D. & BERGSTROM, C. THE MAP
EQUATION. EUR. PHYS. J. SPEC. TOP. 178, 13–23 (2009).
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RESULTING CLUSTER
QUOTIENT GRAPHS
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TRACE THE
CLUSTER
QUOTIENT
GRAPHS
OVER TIME
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THEN WE ADDED ALL OF THE
FEDERAL LEVEL REGULATIONS
TO THE STATUTES
CORINNA COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF,
DIRK HARTUNG, MICHAEL BOMMARITO, &
DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, MEASURING LAW
OVER TIME: A NETWORK ANALYTICAL
FRAMEWORK WITH AN APPLICATION TO
STATUTES AND REGULATIONS IN THE
UNITED STATES AND GERMANY, FRONT.
PHYS. (2021 FORTHCOMING)
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OF
COURSE
THERE ARE
EVEN
LARGER
SCALES
(WE ARE ONLY
COVERING THE
RED TILES)
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T H I S F L AVO R O F
M O D E L I N G I N VO LV E S
CO M B I N AT I O N S O F
I N F O R M AT I O N T H E O R Y,
N E T WO R K S C I E N C E A N D
N AT U R A L L A N G UAG E
P R O C E S S I N G
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M O D E L I N G TY P E 2
M E A S U R E
SY ST E M L E V E L
O U T P U T S
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H O W WO U L D
O N E E VA LUAT E
T H E Q UA L I TY O F
A L E G A L SY ST E M
I N A G I V E N
CO U N T RY ?
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CA N W E
CO M PA R E L E G A L
SY ST E M S B A S E D
U P O N C E RTA I N
M E A S U R E S O F
Q UA L I TY ?
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H O W M I G H T W E
CO M B I N E A N
I N D I V I D UA L
M E A S U R E O F
Q UA L I TY I N TO
A CO M P O S I T E
M E A S U R E ?
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I T I S T H E S E A N D
OT H E R R E L AT E D
Q U E ST I O N S
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W H I C H N G O ’ S ,
R E S E A R C H E R S
A N D OT H E R S
S E E K TO
R E G U L A R LY
A N S W E R
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I T T U R N S O U T
T H AT T H E S E
Q U E ST I O N S A R E
N OT A LWAY S
E A SY TO A N S W E R
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T H E R E A R E LOT S
O F M E A S U R E S
W H I C H AT T E M P T
TO B R OA D LY
C H A R AC T E R I Z E
F I D E L I TY TO
CO N C E P T S S U C H
A S ‘ R U L E O F L AW ’
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B U T T H E G OA L I S
TO M OV E F R O M
“ I K N O W I T
W H E N I S E E I T ”
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TO M O R E
O B J E C T I V E A N D
G E N E R A L I Z E D
M E A S U R E S
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AG A I N
M U C H E A S I E R
S A I D T H A N D O N E
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H E R E A R E A F E W
E X A M P L E S O F
PA P E R S A N D
P R OJ E C T S O N
T H E S U B J E C T
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1) SUPPORT OF JUSTICE INSTITUTIONS THROUGH TARGETED INTERVENTIONS THAT
IMPROVE THE SPECIALIST FUNCTIONS OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM
2) LEGAL EMPOWERMENT, THROUGH THE PROTECTION AND PROACTIVE OUTREACH TO
WOMEN, THE POOR AND MARGINALIZED GROUPS TO UNDERSTAND AND NAVIGATE
THEIR LEGAL PROBLEMS
3) JUSTICE IN SECTORS THROUGH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE REGULATORY
FRAMEWORKS AND INSTITUTIONS OF ALL THOSE SECTORS CRITICAL FOR THE
ACHIEVEMENT OF BROADER DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
4) DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYTICS AND DIAGNOSTICS TO INFORM POLICY, PROMOTE
DIALOGUE AMONG STAKEHOLDERS AND BETTER TARGET REFORMS.
WORLD BANK EXPERTISE IN
JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT
THE WORLD BANK HAS WORKED
ON JUSTICE AND
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE
GLOBE FOR MORE THAN 25
YEARS THROUGH MORE
THAN 800 PROJECTS.
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http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/#doc-methodology
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https://worldjusticeproject.org/
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M O D E L I N G TY P E 3
E M P I R I CA L
E VA LUAT I O N O F
L E G A L R U L E S /
P O L I CY M A K I N G
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A S A N
I N T E L L E C T UA L
F I E L D
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L AW FAC E D A
C R E D I B I L I TY
R E VO LU T I O N
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W H E R E B Y
L AW Y E R S
J U D G E S
P O L I CY M A K E R S
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W E R E C R A F T I N G
L E G A L R U L E S
A N D D O C T R I N E S
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A N D
C R I T I Q U I N G
L E G A L R U L E S
A N D D O C T R I N E S
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W I T H O U T A N Y
E M P I R I CA L
F O C U S O N T H E
R E A L WO R L D
P E R F O R M A N C E
O F T H E S E R U L E S
A N D D O C T R I N E S
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R O U G H LY ~ 2 5
Y E A R S AG O
T H E R E B E G A N
TO B E
‘ E M P I R I CA L
T U R N ’ I N L E G A L
S C H O L A R S H I P
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Legal Scholarship
Has become far more ‘empirical’ in nature
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D E T E R M I N E ( A S
B E ST P O S S I B L E )
W H E T H E R A
PA RT I C U L A R
P O L I CY
I N T E RV E N T I O N
AC H I E V E S
T H E D E S I R E D
E N D S
TASK
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MODELING
APPROACH
CO U L D E M P LOY
T R A D I T I O N A L
Q UA N T I TAT I V E
S O C I A L S C I E N C E
M E T H O D S
( S U C H A S
R E G R E S S I O N )
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MODELING
APPROACH
O R M I G H T
I N VO K E M O R E
S O P H I ST I CAT E D
E CO N O M E T R I C
M E T H O D S
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EXAMPLE
METHODS
I N ST R U M E N TA L
VA R I A B L E S ,
P R O P E N S I TY
S CO R E
M ATC H I N G ,
R U B I N CAU S A L
M O D E L ,
R E G R E S S I O N
D I S CO N T I N U I TY,
D I F F E R E N C E I N
D I F F E R E N C E S ,
E TC .
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S I N C E M O ST P O L I CY
E VA LUAT I O N CA N N OT
R E A L LY B E U N D E RTA K E N
U N D E R R A N D O M I Z E D
CO N T R O L T R I A L ( R C T )
TY P E CO N D I T I O N S
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F O L K S O F T E N
L E V E R AG E
M E T H O D S TO T R Y
TO G E T SY N T H E T I C
V E R S I O N S O F R C T ’ S
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CAU S A L I N F E R E N C E
A P P R OAC H E S A R E B E ST
F O R A P P R O P R I AT E
P R O B L E M S / Q U E ST I O N S
W H E R E I D E N T I F Y I N G /
L I N K I N G CAU S E A N D
E F F E C T A R E K E Y
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O N S S R N A LO N E , T H E R E
A R E T H O U S A N D S O F
E M P I R I CA L L E G A L
ST U D I E S TY P E PA P E R S
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https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/JELJOUR_Results.cfm?
form_name=journalBrowse&journal_id=2123644
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H E R E A R E J U ST
A F E W E X A M P L E
O F PA P E R S
L E V E R AG I N G
VA R I O U S
E M P I R I CA L
M E T H O D S
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E VA LUAT I N G T H E
I M PAC T S O F
C H A N G E S I N
C I V I L P L E A D I N G
R U L E S
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E X P LO R I N G T H E
P E R F O R M A N C E
O F B A N K R U P TCY
R E F O R M F O R
CO N S U M E R
D E B TO R S
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E VA LUAT I N G T H E
R O L E O F
E X P U N G E M E N T
O N T H E
O U TCO M E S O F
CO N V I C T E D
C R I M I N A L S
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R E V I E W I N G
W H E T H E R
C H A N G E S I N
PAT E N T L AW
D O C T R I N E H AV E
WO R K E D TO
U N D E R M I N E
PAT E N T T R O L L S
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Epstein, L., & Martin, A. D.
(2014). An introduction to
empirical legal research.
Oxford University Press.
Lawless, Robert M., Jennifer K.
Robbennolt, and Thomas
Ulen. Empirical methods in law.
New York: Aspen Publishers, 2010.
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M O D E L I N G TY P E 4
S I M U L AT I O N
B A S E D A N A LY S I S
O F L E G A L
R U L E S / P O L I CY
M A K I N G
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E M P I R I CA L M O D E L S /
M E T H O D S A R E
TY P I CA L LY U S E D TO
A N A LY Z E
P E R F O R M A N C E O F
P O L I C I E S W H I C H A R E
A L R E A DY D E P LOY E D
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S O M E T I M E S A
P O L I CY M A K E R
WO U L D L I K E TO
U N D E R STA N D I N
A DVA N C E T H E
L I K E LY I M PAC T S
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T H E A LT E R N AT I V E TO
P O ST H O C E M P I R I CA L
E VA LUAT I O N I S TO
CO N ST R U C T U P F R O N T
G A M E T H E O R E T I C O R
S I M U L AT I O N B A S E D
M O D E L S
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T H E R E A R E A
VA R I E TY O F
A P P R OAC H E S TO
B U I L D F O R M A L
M O D E L S
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G A M E
T H E O R E T I C
M O D E L S
AG E N T B A S E D
M O D E L S
SY ST E M
DY N A M I C S
M O D E L S
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R E M E M B E R T H E R E
I S A N U N CA N N Y
VA L L E Y I N
T H E O R E T I CA L
M O D E L S
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Hyper Stylized Fairly Realistic
T H E
U N CA N N Y VA L L E Y I N
T H E O R E T I C M O D E L S
Conway’s Game
of Life
The Sims
Video Game
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B E WA R E F O L K S
C LO B B E R YO U I N
T H E VA L L E Y
B E CAU S E O F S O M E
D E TA I L T H AT I S
‘ M I S S I N G ’ F R O M
T H E M O D E L
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H E R E A R E A F E W
E X A M P L E S O F
PA P E R S /
P R OJ E C T S
L E V E R AG I N G
D I F F E R E N T
M E T H O D S
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T WO O L D E R PA P E R S W H I C H H AV E
S PAW N E D M A N Y F O L LO W O N A N A LY S E S
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T H E A RT I C L E
U T I L I Z E S A N E W
G A M E -
T H E O R E T I C
F R A M E WO R K ,
F O C U S I N G O N
T WO C E N T R A L
D I M E N S I O N S O F
P O L I CY- M A K I N G
I N ST R U M E N T S I N
PA RT I C U L A R :
T I M I N G A N D
B R E A DT H .
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T H E M O D E L
U T I L I Z E S R U L E S
F O R TA X PAY E R
B E H AV I O R A N D
A P P R E H E N S I O N O F
TA X E VA D E R S I N
O R D E R TO T E ST
T H E E F F E C T S O F
N E T WO R K
TO P O LO G I E S I N
T H E P R O PAG AT I O N
O F E VA S I V E
B E H AV I O R
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S I M U L AT I O N O F
G OV E R N A N C E A N D
E N F O R C E M E N T
O F F O R E ST S
E X T R AC T I O N
L I M I T S W I T H
L E S S O N S F O R
OT H E R CO M M O N
P O O L R E S O U R C E
G OV E R N A N C E
P R O B L E M S
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U S E S B E L I E F L E A R N I N G
TO M O D E L T H E
DY N A M I C S O F R AT ’ S
O F F E N D E R , TA R G E T, A N D
G UA R D I A N B E H AV I O R S
W I T H I N A N AG E N T-
B A S E D M O D E L I S T H AT
T H E AG E N T S L E A R N A N D
A DA P T G I V E N
O B S E RVAT I O N O F OT H E R
AG E N T S ’ AC T I O N S
W I T H O U T K N O W L E D G E
O F T H E PAYO F F S T H AT
D R OV E T H E OT H E R
AG E N T S ’ C H O I C E S .
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M O D E L I N G TY P E 5
M O D E L U S E R
E X P E R I E N C E W I T H
A L E G A L P R O C E S S
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L AW H A S M A N Y
P R O C E S S E S A N D
P R O C E D U R E S
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I N D E E D W E T E AC H
E N T I R E C L A S S E S O N
L E G A L P R O C E S S E S
A N D P R O C E D U R E S
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T H E R E A R E OT H E R
WAY S TO
C H A R AC T E R I Z E
P R O C E S S E S A N D
P R O C E D U R E S
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R E L E VA N T
I N T E L L E C T UA L
D I S C I P L I N E S
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P R O C E S S
E N G I N E E R I N G
O P E R AT I O N S
R E S E A R C H
D E S I G N T H I N K I N G
H U M A N CO M P U T E R
I N T E R AC T I O N ( H C I )
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T H E D E V E LO P M E N T
A N D / O R
D E P LOY M E N T O F
S O F T WA R E
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I T I S B A S E D U P O N
M O D E L S
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CA S E M G M T
M AT T E R M G M T
R E Q U I R E S A ST E P
B Y ST E P
U N D E R STA N D I N G
O F P R O C E S S
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I T CA N A L S O
S U P P O RT T H E
‘ R E E N G I N E E R I N G ’
O F T H AT P R O C E S S
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I T I S CA N A L S O
P R OV I D E T H E
F O U N DAT I O N A L
DATA TO S U P P O RT
OT H E R TY P E O F
M O D E L I N G E F F O RT S
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THERE ARE KNOWN
METHODOLOGIES FOR
MANAGING PROCESS
CENTRIC WORK
PROJECT MGMT
PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
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INDEED, ACROSS THE
ECONOMY THERE ARE
MANY EFFORTS TO
CONVERT AN ARTISANAL
PROCESS INTO AN
INDUSTRIAL PROCESS
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THE
INDUSTRIALIZATION
OF THE
ARTISAN
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THE INTELLECTUAL
ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED
TO A MUCH EARLIER
TIME
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THE INTELLECTUAL
ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED
TO A MUCH EARLIER
TIME
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the toyota
production system
lean ideas
lean for
enterprises
(white collar, etc.)
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WE WANT TO ENSURE
THAT WE CAN MAINTAIN
THE ARTISAN ELEMENTS
THAT DO ADD VALUE
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WITH RESPECT TO A GIVEN
PROCESS THERE IS OFTEN A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
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LEAN, SIX SIGMA
AND OTHER
PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
METHODOLOGIES
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CAN HELP IMPROVE
ALMOST EVERY
SUBSECTOR IN LAW
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CONVERT HIGH VOLATILITY PROCESS
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CONVERT HIGH VOLATILITY PROCESS
INTO A LOWER VOLATILITY PROCESS
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WHAT YOU ARE
LEFT WITH IS A
VERY USEFUL
ARTIFACT …
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Responsible
Role
Task
Description
Estimated
Time
Billing Code
Precedential
Document
Tool/
Technology
Used
Participant
INDIVIDUAL PROCESS STEP
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THE PROCESS MAP
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IT CAN AID IN
Increasing Response Times
Predicting Resource Loads
Coordination Across Stakeholders
Increasing Margins on Work
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I TEACH A FULL LENGTH
CLASS AT ILLINOIS TECH
LED BY OUR COLLEAGUES
FROM THE LAW FIRM
SEYFARTH SHAW
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SO THINK OF THE PROCESS
MAP AS A FIRST ORDER
ESTIMATION OF YOUR
ACTUAL PROCESSES
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RICH / GRANULAR DATA
CAN HELP ILLUMINATE
THE ACTUAL PROCESSES
PRESENT IN VARIOUS
(LEGAL) ORGANIZATIONS
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FOR EACH NODE IN A
PROCESS WE WANT TO
BE ABLE TO RENDER A
PREDICTION ABOUT
THINGS SUCH AS
DURATION, COST, ETC.
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COURTS CAN PROVIDE
SCIENTIFIC SCHEDULE
OF CASES, ETC.
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EACH UNIT OF TIME LINKED
+ LOGGED TO A NODE ON
THE PROCESS MAP
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LEAN
PROCESS
MAPPING
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IF THERE IS NOT A NODE
THEN IT CAN BE ADDED
AND THUS THE MAP
BECOMES MORE
REFLECTIVE OF REALITY
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JUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO
CREATE A
#RIDICULOGRAM
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WITH PREDICTIONS ABOUT
INDIVIDUAL NODES
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WE CAN THEN SUM TO
GENERATE PREDICTIONS
ABOUT THE DISTRIBUTIONAL
MOMENTS OF AN OVERALL
MATTER (OR PHASE)
(i.e. mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis)
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THIS MATTER SHOULD TAKE …
BETWEEN 9-15 MONTHS
IN 85% OF THE SIMILAR MATTERS
(WHAT ABOUT THE LONG TAIL?)
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THIS MATTER WILL COST…
MOST COMMON RANGE 275K - 345K
BUT THE SECOND MODE IS 555K - 625K
(AND THAT SECOND
MODE TYPICALLY IS
REALIZED WHEN THE
FOLLOWING FACTORS
ARE PRESENT … )
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SPEAKING OF
#PREDICTION
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M O D E L I N G TY P E 6
P R E D I C T I V E
M O D E L I N G O F
L E G A L SY ST E M S
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H O W LO N G W I L L
T H I S M AT T E R L A ST ?
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H O W M U C H W I L L
T H I S M AT T E R CO ST ?
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W I L L W E W I N ?
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WHAT ARE THE RIGHT
RESOURCES TO USE AT THE
MATTER AND TASK LEVEL ?
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T H E R E A R E A
W I D E VA R I E TY
O F P R E D I C T I O N
P R O B L E M S
W I T H I N L AW
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T H E R E A R E T WO
M A J O R CA N D I DAT E S
F O R P R O C E S S I N G
P R E D I C T I O N S
and / or
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CO G N I T I V E
S C I E N C E
CO M P U T E R
S C I E N C E
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https://speakerdeck.com/danielkatz/the-three-forms-of-legal-prediction-experts-crowds-plus-algorithms
I E X PA N D
O N T H I S
OV E R H E R E
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CO M P U TAT I O N A L
P R E D I C T I O N W I L L L E A D
TO T WO PA RT I C U L A R
FA M I L I E S O F
M O D E L I N G M E T H O D S
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P R E D I C T I O N
MACHINE
LEARNING
NATURAL
LANGUAGE
PROCESSING
A N D / O R
=
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T H E S E M O D E L I N G
M E T H O D S A R E
L E V E R AG E D I N U S E
CA S E S S U C H A S T H E
F O L LO W I N G
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#Predict Substantive Case Outcomes
#Predict Rogue Behavior/Compliance
#Predict Contract Terms/Outcomes
#Predict Case Scheduling
#Predict Judge Work Allocation
#Predict Relevant Legal Information
#Predict Costs / Duration for Litigants
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A N D F R O M A
G LO B A L
P E R S P E C T I V E
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T H E R E H A S B E E N
S I G N I F I CA N T
S C I E N T I F I C A N D
CO M M E R C I A L
I N T E R E ST
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I N B U I L D I N G A N D
L E V E R AG I N G M O D E L S
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#JudicialAnalytics
Quantitative Legal Prediction
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#PredictiveCoding #E-Discovery
Quantitative Legal Prediction
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General Counsels as Legal
Procurement Specialists
#LegalSpendAnalytics
Quantitative Legal Prediction
TyMetrix/ELM -
Using $80 billion+ in Legal
Spend Data to Help GC’s
Look for Arbitrage
Opportunities, Value
Propositions in Hiring Law
Firms
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“Lawyers say the real value in mediation and arbitration might in the future
come from large-scale data analysis of arbitrators and mediators themselves,
in an effort to predict outcomes and potentially affect the course of
settlements … Matthew Saunders, partner at Ashurst, notes that data
analytics “could be extended to predicting which way arbitrators or a
mediator might go”.
#ArbitrationAnalytics
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“…I study choice of law by
analyzing the nearly 1,000,000
contracts that have been disclosed
to the Securities and Exchange
Commission between 1996–2012.”
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174698
Katz DM, Bommarito MJ II, Blackman J (2017), A General
Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court
of the United States. PLoS ONE 12(4): e0174698.
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H E R E A R E A F E W
E X A M P L E S I N T H E
CO N T E X T O F CO U RT
A D M I N I ST R AT I O N
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https://motoraccidents.lawnet.sg/
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https://civilresolutionbc.ca/
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https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201901/24/WS5c4959f9a3106c65c34e64ea.html
The 206 System
Transcribe testimony
Transfer physical data and documents to
electronic databases
Display relevant parameters immediately,
such as time, place, people, behavior and
consequences
Identify defective or contradicting evidence
Respond to oral commands to display
evidence and information on screens around
the courtroom
Inter-connect with judicial, procuratorial,
public security authorities and courts
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B U T T H E R E I S M U C H
M O R E T H AT CA N B E
D O N E …
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A N D T H I S I S W H E R E
YO U CO M E I N …
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PA RT I I I
L AW M E E T S ST E M
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I H AV E LO N G
B E L I E V E D T H AT A
L AW S C H O O L A N D A
T E C H N I CA L S C H O O L
S H O U L D M E E T
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LIBERAL ARTS LEGAL.EDU
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POLYTECHNIC LEGAL.EDU
LIBERAL ARTS LEGAL.EDU
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Daniel Martin Katz, The MIT School of Law? A
Perspective on Legal Education in the 21st Century,
University of Illinois Law Review (2014)
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I OUTLINE IN THIS PAPER
MY VISION FOR WHAT
LAW.EDU COULD BE ...
(AND I AM NOT ALONE IN THIS VIEW)
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THERE QUITE A
FEW LAW
SCHOOLS WITH
SOME CREDIBLE
VERSION OF A
POLYTECHNIC
OFFERING
(SOME ARE MORE SERIOUS THAN OTHERS)
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THE
DEMOGRAPHIC
REALITY …
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WE ARE ABOUT TO
HAVE THE
LARGEST
GENERATIONAL
TRANSFER IN
HUMAN HISTORY
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THIS IS A MAJOR
CHALLENGE TO
EVERY
ORGANIZATION
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ORGANIZATIONS
NEED DIFFERENT
(BETTER) HUMAN
CAPITAL IN ORDER
TO SUPPORT ALL
OF THESE TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTED
HEREIN
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INCLUDING HELPING
SOLVE THE
COMPLEXITY
CHALLENGE IN LAW
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WE NEED MORE
MULTI
DISCIPLINARY
INDIVIDUALS
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WE NEED MORE
MULTI
DISCIPLINARY
TEAMS
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AND THIS SHOULD
BE REFLECTED IN
THE CONTENT OF
LEGAL EDUCATION
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T Shaped Professionals
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via
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I N T H I S
P R E S E N TAT I O N
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I H AV E B R I E F LY
H I G H L I G H T E D AT
L E A ST S I X F O R M S
O F M O D E L I N G T H AT
M I G H T B E
L E V E R AG E D
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TO B E T T E R
U N D E R STA N D A N D
H O P E F U L LY
I M P R OV E T H E
D E L I V E R Y O F
J U ST I C E
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I H AV E I D E N T I F I E D
VA R I O U S M E T H O D S
A N D I N T E L L E C T UA L
F I E L D S W H O S E
WO R K M I G H T A L S O
B E L E V E R AG E D
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M U C H M O R E CO U L D
B E S A I D I N A
LO N G E R F O R M
S E S S I O N …
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B U T I T H I N K T H I S
H E L P S M A P T H E
I N T E L L E C T UA L
T E R R A I N
( AT L E A ST I N PA RT )
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A N D H O P E F U L LY
S P U R S A S E R I E S
O F F R U I T F U L
CO L L A B O R AT I O N S
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AT T H E
I N T E R S E C T I O N O F
L AW + ST E M
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T H A N K YO U
I I T D E L H I
F O R H O ST I N G M E TO DAY
N LU D E L H I
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T H A N K YO U DA K S H S O C I E TY
F O R R E AC H I N G O U T TO
I N V I T E M E F O R T H E TA L K
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T H A N K YO U
DA K S H C E N T R E
O F E XC E L L E N C E
AT I I T- D E L H I
F O R H AV I N G M E
A S A M E N TO R
TO T H E C E N T E R
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S O M E T H O U G H T S O N
M O D E L I N G L E G A L SY ST E M S
@computational
professor daniel martin katz danielmartinkatz.com
Illinois tech - chicago kent law computationallegalstudies.com https://bit.ly/3yxhY2e