Some Thoughts on Modeling Legal Systems

“Modeling the Law & Justice System” - Virtual Talk at the Indian Institute of Technology - Delhi

This presentation highlights the Complexity Challenge in Law, Six Forms of Modeling Legal Systems and concludes with some thoughts about Law + STEM.

Thanks to the following organizations for hosting me -
DAKSH
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi
National Law University, Delhi
DCoE IIT, Delhi

Transcript

1. S O M E T H O U G H T S O N
   M O D E L I N G L E G A L SY ST E M S
   @computational
   professor daniel martin katz danielmartinkatz.com
   Illinois tech - chicago kent law computationallegalstudies.com https://bit.ly/3yxhY2e
   

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2. View Slide

3. View Slide

4. TO DAY L E T M E B E G I N
   W I T H A N O B V I O U S
   STAT E M E N T …
   

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5. W H I C H ( F O R S O M E )
   M I G H T A L S O B E A
   P R OVO CAT I V E
   STAT E M E N T …
   

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6. L AW I S
   E N G I N E E R I N G
   

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7. H O W E V E R , TO DAY
   I T I S A PA RT I C U L A R
   TY P E O F
   E N G I N E E R I N G
   

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8. I M P L E M E N T E D I N A
   PA RT I C U L A R
   M A N N E R
   

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9. T H E Q U E ST I O N I S
   TO W H AT E X T E N T
   T H E F I E L D O F L AW
   M I G H T B E N E F I T
   F R O M
   

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10. I N S I G H T S
    O F F E R E D B Y T H E
    T R A D I T I O N A L
    ST E M
    ACA D E M I C
    F I E L D S
    

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12. F O R T H E B E N E F I T
    O F O U R
    M U LT I D I S C I P L I N A R Y
    AU D I E N C E
    

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13. L E T U S STA RT W I T H
    T H E B R OA D E ST
    P O S S I B L E
    Q U E ST I O N
    

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14. W H AT I S T H E
    P U R P O S E O F L AW
    A N D L E G A L
    I N ST I T U T I O N S ?
    

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15. S O C I E T I E S C R E AT E
    R U L E S TO T R Y TO
    G OV E R N VA R I O U S
    F O R M S O F S O C I A L ,
    E CO N O M I C A N D
    P O L I T I CA L B E H AV I O R
    

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16. S O C I E T I E S C R E AT E
    G OV E R N A N C E
    I N ST I T U T I O N S
    D E VOT E D TO VA R I O U S
    L E G A L TA S K S
    

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17. R U L E M A K I N G
    R U L E I N T E R P R E TAT I O N
    R U L E E N F O R C E M E N T
    T H E S E TA S K S I N C LU D E
    

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18. O F CO U R S E A S
    T H I S I N VO LV E S
    H U M A N S T H E S E
    P R O C E S S E S A R E
    N OT N E C E S S A R I LY
    N E U T R A L
    

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19. A N D TO P D O W N
    G OV E R N M E N TA L
    R U L E S A R E FA R
    F R O M T H E O N LY
    D R I V E R S O F
    B E H AV I O R
    

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20. B U T T H E G U I D I N G
    P U R P O S E I S TO
    H E L P E N G I N E E R
    C E RTA I N C L A S S E S
    O F B E H AV I O R
    

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21. A N D P R E V E N T /
    M I N I M I Z E OT H E R
    F O R M S O F
    B E H AV I O R
    

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22. I H O P E YO U CA N
    S E E A L R E A DY T H AT
    T H I S I S AC T UA L LY
    A G R A N D
    E N G I N E E R I N G
    C H A L L E N G E
    

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23. T H I S C H A L L E N G E I S
    O N E TO W H I C H
    T H O S E B E YO N D
    T H E T R A D I T I O N A L
    F I E L D O F L AW
    

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24. A R E W E L L P O I S E D TO
    CO L L A B O R AT I V E LY
    CO N T R I B U T E
    

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26. BY WAY OF
    INTRODUCTION
    

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27. I AM AN
    ACADEMIC
    

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28. I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
    

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29. I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
    

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30. I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
    

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31. I AM A SCIENTIST & TECHNOLOGIST
    https://legaltechcenter.de/en/index.html
    

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32. I AM A
    TEACHER
    

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33. I AM A
    TEACHER
    

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34. I AM A
    TEACHER
    

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35. I AM A
    THOUGHT
    LEADER
    

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36. I AM A
    THOUGHT
    LEADER
    

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37. I AM IN THE
    LEGAL
    INNOVATION
    AND VENTURE
    SPACE AS AN
    ADVISOR
    

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38. LexPredict.com
    CONSULTANT
    & ADVISOR
    TO THE
    FORTUNE
    1000,
    AM LAW 200,
    LEGAL TECH
    STARTUPS,
    ETC.
    

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39. I AM A SUCCESSFUL
    ENTREPRENEUR
    

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40. I MENTION ALL OF
    THIS ONLY SO THAT
    YOU MIGHT BE ABLE
    TO ORIENT SOME OF
    MY COMMENTARY
    

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41. AND UNDERSTAND
    THAT I AM *NOT* A
    MERE SPECTATOR OR
    A COMMENTATOR BUT
    RATHER AN ACTIVE
    PARTICIPANT …
    #SKININTHEGAME
    

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42. SO TODAY ALLOW ME
    TO SHARE SOME OF MY
    NOTES FROM THE FIELD
    

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43. View Slide

44. PA RT I
    CO N F R O N T I N G
    T H E CO M P L E X I TY
    C H A L L E N G E
    

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45. W H E T H E R YO U A R E A
    L A R G E M U LT I N AT I O N A L
    CO R P O R AT I O N , A
    S M A L L B U S I N E S S O R
    A N I N D I V I D UA L
    C I T I Z E N …
    

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46. L AW H A S A
    CO M P L E X I TY
    C H A L L E N G E …
    

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47. IF YOU TAKE A STEP BACK
    

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48. THE REAL ANIMATING
    DRIVER IN THE DEMAND
    FOR UNITS OF LEGAL
    PRODUCTION
    

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49. IS COMPLEXITY
    

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50. SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND
    POLITICAL COMPLEXITY
    

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51. MANIFESTS ITSELF IN
    OUR DOMAIN AS
    LEGAL COMPLEXITY
    

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52. WHILE IT IS
    SOMEWHAT HARD TO
    PRECISELY DEFINE …
    

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54. VIRTUALLY EVERY WAY
    YOU MIGHT CONSIDER IT
    LEGAL COMPLEXITY
    HAS GROWN
    

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55. DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, CORINNA
    COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF & DIRK
    HARTUNG, COMPLEX SOCIETIES AND THE
    GROWTH OF THE LAW, 10 SCIENTIFIC
    REPORTS 18737 (2020)
    CORINNA COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF,
    DIRK HARTUNG, MICHAEL BOMMARITO, &
    DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, MEASURING LAW
    OVER TIME: A NETWORK ANALYTICAL
    FRAMEWORK WITH AN APPLICATION TO
    STATUTES AND REGULATIONS IN THE
    UNITED STATES AND GERMANY, FRONT.
    PHYS. (2021 FORTHCOMING)
    

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56. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN LAWS AND REGULATIONS
    

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57. SO THE QUESTION IS
    HOW TO MATCH THAT
    COMPLEXITY WITH THE
    APPROPRIATE
    

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58. COMPLEXITY
    MITIGATION
    TACTICS …
    

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59. MIXTURES OF PEOPLE,
    PROCESS AND
    TECHNOLOGY
    

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60. DESIGNING MORE
    SCALABLE SYSTEMS
    

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61. BECAUSE THE LEGACY
    MODEL HAS BEEN
    

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62. TO USE LOTS OF LABOR
    TO SOLVE
    HIGH COMPLEXITY
    PROBLEMS
    

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63. BUT THAT APPEARS
    TO BE REACHING
    ITS PRACTICAL
    AND ECONOMIC
    LIMITS
    

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64. THE APPROACH NEEDS
    TO BE MORE
    FUNDAMENTAL
    

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65. AND LEVERAGE THE BEST
    OF SCIENCE AND TECH
    

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66. http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2017/03/-complexity-mitigation-strategies-
    for-law-law-land-and-beyond-and-some-other-thoughts-on-hadfield-su.html#more
    SOME THOUGHTS ON
    LEGAL COMPLEXITY
    MITIGATION STRATEGIES
    

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67. View Slide

68. PA RT I I
    S I X F L AVO R S
    O F M O D E L I N G
    

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69. M O D E L S O F
    VA R I O U S F L AVO R S
    CA N B E S E E N
    AC R O S S S C I E N C E
    A N D E N G I N E E R I N G
    

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70. T H U S , I WA N T TO
    D I S C U S S A S E R I E S
    O F I D E A S
    A S S O C I AT E D W I T H
    

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71. T H E M O D E L I N G O F
    L E G A L SY ST E M S
    

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72. View Slide

73. T H E DA K S H C E N T R E O F E XC E L L E N C E F O R L AW A N D T E C H N O LO GY AT I I T- D E L H I ( D CO E ) WA S
    E STA B L I S H E D I N O C TO B E R 2 0 2 0 A S A CO L L A B O R AT I O N B E T W E E N I N D I A N I N ST I T U T E O F
    T E C H N O LO GY ( I I T ) D E L H I A N D DA K S H S O C I E TY, B E N G A LU R U
    H I G H L I G H T S F R O M A R E C E N T CA L L F O R P R OJ E C T S
    A . M O D E L I N G T H E J U ST I C E SY ST E M
    B . TO O L TO M A K E L AW S M O R E ACC E S S I B L E TO
    C I T I Z E N S , A N D CA S E D U R AT I O N & O U TCO M E P R E D I C TO R
    C . CA S E F LO W M A N AG E M E N T
    D. S C I E N T I F I C S C H E D U L I N G O F CA S E S & WO R K
    A L LO CAT I O N F O R J U D G E S
    

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74. A . M O D E L I N G T H E J U ST I C E SY ST E M
    B . TO O L TO M A K E L AW S M O R E
    ACC E S S I B L E TO C I T I Z E N S , A N D CA S E
    D U R AT I O N & O U TCO M E P R E D I C TO R
    C . CA S E F LO W M A N AG E M E N T
    D. S C I E N T I F I C S C H E D U L I N G O F CA S E S
    & WO R K A L LO CAT I O N F O R J U D G E S
    A L L F O U R O F T H E S E
    AC T UA L LY I N VO LV E M O D E L S
    

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75. View Slide

76. S O W H AT I S
    M O D E L I N G ?
    

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77. T H E T E R M TA K E S O N
    D I F F E R E N T
    M E A N I N G S AC R O S S
    T H E S C I E N C E S
    

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78. H E R E A R E S O M E
    E L E M E N T S
    

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79. A M O D E L I S A
    R E P R E S E N TAT I O N O F A SY ST E M
    L I K E LY I N VO LV E S A L E V E L
    O F A B ST R AC T I O N
    CA N B E U S E D TO U N D E R STA N D B OT H
    SY ST E M CO M P O N E N T S A N D T H E I R
    CO N N E C T I O N TO O N E A N OT H E R
    T H E R E A R E VA R I O U S
    A P P R OAC H E S O N E CA N U S E
    

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80. View Slide

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82. AT L E A ST S I X
    D I F F E R E N T F O R M S
    O F “ M O D E L I N G ”
    A R E R E L E VA N T F O R
    L E G A L SY ST E M S
    

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83. R E M E M B E R E AC H
    O F T H E S E H A S A N
    ACCO M PA N Y I N G
    M E N TA L M O D E L . .
    

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84. B U T L E T U S STA RT AT T H E
    M AC R O S CA L E M O D E L S
    A N D WO R K TO WA R D T H E
    M I C R O S CA L E
    M I C R O
    M E S O
    M AC R O
    

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85. View Slide

86. M O D E L I N G TY P E 1
    M O D E L I N G T H E
    L AW I T S E L F
    ( AG G R E G AT E
    L E V E L )
    

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87. I H AV E A L R E A DY
    G I V E N A B I T O F A
    P R E V I E W O F T H I S
    A P P R OAC H
    

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88. TA K E T H E L E G A L
    R U L E S T H E M S E LV E S
    A N D M O D E L T H E M
    

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89. B OT H STAT I CA L LY
    A N D A S A
    F U N C T I O N O F T I M E
    

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90. L AW S CA N O F T E N B E M O D E L E D A S
    CO M B I N AT I O N A H I E R A R C H Y, R E F E R E N C E
    N E T WO R K , S E Q U E N C E G R A P H
    

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91. View Slide

92. H E R E A R E S O M E
    E X A M P L E S …
    

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93. Boulet, Romain, Pierre Mazzega, and Daniele
    Bourcier. "A network approach to the French system
    of legal codes—part I: analysis of a dense network."
    Artificial Intelligence and Law 19.4 (2011): 333-355.
    Boulet, Romain, Pierre Mazzega, and Danièle
    Bourcier. "Network approach to the French
    system of legal codes part II: the role of the
    weights in a network." Artificial Intelligence
    and Law 26.1 (2018): 23-47.
    

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94. View Slide

95. Koniaris, Marios, Ioannis Anagnostopoulos, and Yannis
    Vassiliou. "Network Analysis in the Legal Domain: A
    complex model for European Union legal sources."
    Journal of Complex Networks 6.2 (2017): 243-268.
    

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96. M. Bommarito. & D. Katz. A
    Mathematical Approach to the
    Study of the United States Code.
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and
    its Applications, 389(19),
    4195-4200 (2010).
    D. Katz & M. Bommarito. Measuring the
    complexity of the law: the United
    States Code. Artificial intelligence and
    law, 22(4), 337-374. (2014)
    

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97. H E R E W E
    I N V E ST I G AT E D A
    S I N G L E
    S N A P S H OT O F
    T H E 2 0 1 0 U N I T E D
    STAT E S CO D E I N
    A N E F F O RT TO
    E X P LO R E I T S
    CO M P L E X I TY
    

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98. THEN WE STUDIED THE
    STATUTORY LAW OF TWO LARGE
    COUNTRIES OVER 25 YEARS
    DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, CORINNA
    COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF & DIRK
    HARTUNG, COMPLEX SOCIETIES AND THE
    GROWTH OF THE LAW, 10 SCIENTIFIC
    REPORTS 18737 (2020)
    

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99. LEVERAGED INFO MAP
    (MAP EQUATION)
    TO ALGORITHMICALLY
    REORGANIZE THE
    STATUTORY LAW INTO
    MORE COHERENT
    CATEGORIES (TOPICS)
    

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100. MAP EQUATION
     MAP EQUATION SOURCE
     ROSVALL, M., AXELSSON, D. & BERGSTROM, C. THE MAP
     EQUATION. EUR. PHYS. J. SPEC. TOP. 178, 13–23 (2009).
     

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101. RESULTING CLUSTER
     QUOTIENT GRAPHS
     

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102. TRACE THE
     CLUSTER
     QUOTIENT
     GRAPHS
     OVER TIME
     

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103. THEN WE ADDED ALL OF THE
     FEDERAL LEVEL REGULATIONS
     TO THE STATUTES
     CORINNA COUPETTE, JANIS BECKEDORF,
     DIRK HARTUNG, MICHAEL BOMMARITO, &
     DANIEL MARTIN KATZ, MEASURING LAW
     OVER TIME: A NETWORK ANALYTICAL
     FRAMEWORK WITH AN APPLICATION TO
     STATUTES AND REGULATIONS IN THE
     UNITED STATES AND GERMANY, FRONT.
     PHYS. (2021 FORTHCOMING)
     

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105. View Slide

106. OF
     COURSE
     THERE ARE
     EVEN
     LARGER
     SCALES
     (WE ARE ONLY
     COVERING THE
     RED TILES)
     

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107. T H I S F L AVO R O F
     M O D E L I N G I N VO LV E S
     CO M B I N AT I O N S O F
     I N F O R M AT I O N T H E O R Y,
     N E T WO R K S C I E N C E A N D
     N AT U R A L L A N G UAG E
     P R O C E S S I N G
     

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108. View Slide

109. M O D E L I N G TY P E 2
     M E A S U R E
     SY ST E M L E V E L
     O U T P U T S
     

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110. H O W WO U L D
     O N E E VA LUAT E
     T H E Q UA L I TY O F
     A L E G A L SY ST E M
     I N A G I V E N
     CO U N T RY ?
     

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111. CA N W E
     CO M PA R E L E G A L
     SY ST E M S B A S E D
     U P O N C E RTA I N
     M E A S U R E S O F
     Q UA L I TY ?
     

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112. H O W M I G H T W E
     CO M B I N E A N
     I N D I V I D UA L
     M E A S U R E O F
     Q UA L I TY I N TO
     A CO M P O S I T E
     M E A S U R E ?
     

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113. I T I S T H E S E A N D
     OT H E R R E L AT E D
     Q U E ST I O N S
     

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114. W H I C H N G O ’ S ,
     R E S E A R C H E R S
     A N D OT H E R S
     S E E K TO
     R E G U L A R LY
     A N S W E R
     

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115. I T T U R N S O U T
     T H AT T H E S E
     Q U E ST I O N S A R E
     N OT A LWAY S
     E A SY TO A N S W E R
     

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116. View Slide

117. T H E R E A R E LOT S
     O F M E A S U R E S
     W H I C H AT T E M P T
     TO B R OA D LY
     C H A R AC T E R I Z E
     F I D E L I TY TO
     CO N C E P T S S U C H
     A S ‘ R U L E O F L AW ’
     

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118. B U T T H E G OA L I S
     TO M OV E F R O M
     “ I K N O W I T
     W H E N I S E E I T ”
     

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119. TO M O R E
     O B J E C T I V E A N D
     G E N E R A L I Z E D
     M E A S U R E S
     

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120. AG A I N
     M U C H E A S I E R
     S A I D T H A N D O N E
     

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121. View Slide

122. H E R E A R E A F E W
     E X A M P L E S O F
     PA P E R S A N D
     P R OJ E C T S O N
     T H E S U B J E C T
     

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123. 1) SUPPORT OF JUSTICE INSTITUTIONS THROUGH TARGETED INTERVENTIONS THAT
     IMPROVE THE SPECIALIST FUNCTIONS OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM
     2) LEGAL EMPOWERMENT, THROUGH THE PROTECTION AND PROACTIVE OUTREACH TO
     WOMEN, THE POOR AND MARGINALIZED GROUPS TO UNDERSTAND AND NAVIGATE
     THEIR LEGAL PROBLEMS
     3) JUSTICE IN SECTORS THROUGH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE REGULATORY
     FRAMEWORKS AND INSTITUTIONS OF ALL THOSE SECTORS CRITICAL FOR THE
     ACHIEVEMENT OF BROADER DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
     4) DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYTICS AND DIAGNOSTICS TO INFORM POLICY, PROMOTE
     DIALOGUE AMONG STAKEHOLDERS AND BETTER TARGET REFORMS.
     WORLD BANK EXPERTISE IN
     JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT
     THE WORLD BANK HAS WORKED
     ON JUSTICE AND
     DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE
     GLOBE FOR MORE THAN 25
     YEARS THROUGH MORE
     THAN 800 PROJECTS.
     

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124. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/#doc-methodology
     

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125. https://worldjusticeproject.org/
     

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126. View Slide

127. View Slide

128. M O D E L I N G TY P E 3
     E M P I R I CA L
     E VA LUAT I O N O F
     L E G A L R U L E S /
     P O L I CY M A K I N G
     

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129. A S A N
     I N T E L L E C T UA L
     F I E L D
     

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130. L AW FAC E D A
     C R E D I B I L I TY
     R E VO LU T I O N
     

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131. W H E R E B Y
     L AW Y E R S
     J U D G E S
     P O L I CY M A K E R S
     

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132. W E R E C R A F T I N G
     L E G A L R U L E S
     A N D D O C T R I N E S
     

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133. A N D
     C R I T I Q U I N G
     L E G A L R U L E S
     A N D D O C T R I N E S
     

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134. W I T H O U T A N Y
     E M P I R I CA L
     F O C U S O N T H E
     R E A L WO R L D
     P E R F O R M A N C E
     O F T H E S E R U L E S
     A N D D O C T R I N E S
     

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135. R O U G H LY ~ 2 5
     Y E A R S AG O
     T H E R E B E G A N
     TO B E
     ‘ E M P I R I CA L
     T U R N ’ I N L E G A L
     S C H O L A R S H I P
     

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136. Legal Scholarship
     Has become far more ‘empirical’ in nature
     

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137. View Slide

138. View Slide

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140. D E T E R M I N E ( A S
     B E ST P O S S I B L E )
     W H E T H E R A
     PA RT I C U L A R
     P O L I CY
     I N T E RV E N T I O N
     AC H I E V E S
     T H E D E S I R E D
     E N D S
     TASK
     

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141. MODELING
     APPROACH
     CO U L D E M P LOY
     T R A D I T I O N A L
     Q UA N T I TAT I V E
     S O C I A L S C I E N C E
     M E T H O D S
     ( S U C H A S
     R E G R E S S I O N )
     

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142. MODELING
     APPROACH
     O R M I G H T
     I N VO K E M O R E
     S O P H I ST I CAT E D
     E CO N O M E T R I C
     M E T H O D S
     

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143. EXAMPLE
     METHODS
     I N ST R U M E N TA L
     VA R I A B L E S ,
     P R O P E N S I TY
     S CO R E
     M ATC H I N G ,
     R U B I N CAU S A L
     M O D E L ,
     R E G R E S S I O N
     D I S CO N T I N U I TY,
     D I F F E R E N C E I N
     D I F F E R E N C E S ,
     E TC .
     

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144. S I N C E M O ST P O L I CY
     E VA LUAT I O N CA N N OT
     R E A L LY B E U N D E RTA K E N
     U N D E R R A N D O M I Z E D
     CO N T R O L T R I A L ( R C T )
     TY P E CO N D I T I O N S
     

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145. F O L K S O F T E N
     L E V E R AG E
     M E T H O D S TO T R Y
     TO G E T SY N T H E T I C
     V E R S I O N S O F R C T ’ S
     

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146. CAU S A L I N F E R E N C E
     A P P R OAC H E S A R E B E ST
     F O R A P P R O P R I AT E
     P R O B L E M S / Q U E ST I O N S
     W H E R E I D E N T I F Y I N G /
     L I N K I N G CAU S E A N D
     E F F E C T A R E K E Y
     

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147. View Slide

148. O N S S R N A LO N E , T H E R E
     A R E T H O U S A N D S O F
     E M P I R I CA L L E G A L
     ST U D I E S TY P E PA P E R S
     

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149. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/JELJOUR_Results.cfm?
     form_name=journalBrowse&journal_id=2123644
     

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150. H E R E A R E J U ST
     A F E W E X A M P L E
     O F PA P E R S
     L E V E R AG I N G
     VA R I O U S
     E M P I R I CA L
     M E T H O D S
     

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151. E VA LUAT I N G T H E
     I M PAC T S O F
     C H A N G E S I N
     C I V I L P L E A D I N G
     R U L E S
     

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152. E X P LO R I N G T H E
     P E R F O R M A N C E
     O F B A N K R U P TCY
     R E F O R M F O R
     CO N S U M E R
     D E B TO R S
     

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153. E VA LUAT I N G T H E
     R O L E O F
     E X P U N G E M E N T
     O N T H E
     O U TCO M E S O F
     CO N V I C T E D
     C R I M I N A L S
     

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154. R E V I E W I N G
     W H E T H E R
     C H A N G E S I N
     PAT E N T L AW
     D O C T R I N E H AV E
     WO R K E D TO
     U N D E R M I N E
     PAT E N T T R O L L S
     

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155. Epstein, L., & Martin, A. D.
     (2014). An introduction to
     empirical legal research.
     Oxford University Press.
     Lawless, Robert M., Jennifer K.
     Robbennolt, and Thomas
     Ulen. Empirical methods in law.
     New York: Aspen Publishers, 2010.
     

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156. View Slide

157. M O D E L I N G TY P E 4
     S I M U L AT I O N
     B A S E D A N A LY S I S
     O F L E G A L
     R U L E S / P O L I CY
     M A K I N G
     

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158. E M P I R I CA L M O D E L S /
     M E T H O D S A R E
     TY P I CA L LY U S E D TO
     A N A LY Z E
     P E R F O R M A N C E O F
     P O L I C I E S W H I C H A R E
     A L R E A DY D E P LOY E D
     

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159. S O M E T I M E S A
     P O L I CY M A K E R
     WO U L D L I K E TO
     U N D E R STA N D I N
     A DVA N C E T H E
     L I K E LY I M PAC T S
     

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160. T H E A LT E R N AT I V E TO
     P O ST H O C E M P I R I CA L
     E VA LUAT I O N I S TO
     CO N ST R U C T U P F R O N T
     G A M E T H E O R E T I C O R
     S I M U L AT I O N B A S E D
     M O D E L S
     

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161. T H E R E A R E A
     VA R I E TY O F
     A P P R OAC H E S TO
     B U I L D F O R M A L
     M O D E L S
     

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162. G A M E
     T H E O R E T I C
     M O D E L S
     AG E N T B A S E D
     M O D E L S
     SY ST E M
     DY N A M I C S
     M O D E L S
     

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163. R E M E M B E R T H E R E
     I S A N U N CA N N Y
     VA L L E Y I N
     T H E O R E T I CA L
     M O D E L S
     

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164. Hyper Stylized Fairly Realistic
     T H E
     U N CA N N Y VA L L E Y I N
     T H E O R E T I C M O D E L S
     Conway’s Game
     of Life
     The Sims
     Video Game
     

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165. B E WA R E F O L K S
     C LO B B E R YO U I N
     T H E VA L L E Y
     B E CAU S E O F S O M E
     D E TA I L T H AT I S
     ‘ M I S S I N G ’ F R O M
     T H E M O D E L
     

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166. View Slide

167. H E R E A R E A F E W
     E X A M P L E S O F
     PA P E R S /
     P R OJ E C T S
     L E V E R AG I N G
     D I F F E R E N T
     M E T H O D S
     

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168. T WO O L D E R PA P E R S W H I C H H AV E
     S PAW N E D M A N Y F O L LO W O N A N A LY S E S
     

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169. T H E A RT I C L E
     U T I L I Z E S A N E W
     G A M E -
     T H E O R E T I C
     F R A M E WO R K ,
     F O C U S I N G O N
     T WO C E N T R A L
     D I M E N S I O N S O F
     P O L I CY- M A K I N G
     I N ST R U M E N T S I N
     PA RT I C U L A R :
     T I M I N G A N D
     B R E A DT H .
     

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170. T H E M O D E L
     U T I L I Z E S R U L E S
     F O R TA X PAY E R
     B E H AV I O R A N D
     A P P R E H E N S I O N O F
     TA X E VA D E R S I N
     O R D E R TO T E ST
     T H E E F F E C T S O F
     N E T WO R K
     TO P O LO G I E S I N
     T H E P R O PAG AT I O N
     O F E VA S I V E
     B E H AV I O R
     

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171. S I M U L AT I O N O F
     G OV E R N A N C E A N D
     E N F O R C E M E N T
     O F F O R E ST S
     E X T R AC T I O N
     L I M I T S W I T H
     L E S S O N S F O R
     OT H E R CO M M O N
     P O O L R E S O U R C E
     G OV E R N A N C E
     P R O B L E M S
     

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172. U S E S B E L I E F L E A R N I N G
     TO M O D E L T H E
     DY N A M I C S O F R AT ’ S
     O F F E N D E R , TA R G E T, A N D
     G UA R D I A N B E H AV I O R S
     W I T H I N A N AG E N T-
     B A S E D M O D E L I S T H AT
     T H E AG E N T S L E A R N A N D
     A DA P T G I V E N
     O B S E RVAT I O N O F OT H E R
     AG E N T S ’ AC T I O N S
     W I T H O U T K N O W L E D G E
     O F T H E PAYO F F S T H AT
     D R OV E T H E OT H E R
     AG E N T S ’ C H O I C E S .
     

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173. View Slide

174. View Slide

175. M O D E L I N G TY P E 5
     M O D E L U S E R
     E X P E R I E N C E W I T H
     A L E G A L P R O C E S S
     

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176. L AW H A S M A N Y
     P R O C E S S E S A N D
     P R O C E D U R E S
     

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177. I N D E E D W E T E AC H
     E N T I R E C L A S S E S O N
     L E G A L P R O C E S S E S
     A N D P R O C E D U R E S
     

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178. T H E R E A R E OT H E R
     WAY S TO
     C H A R AC T E R I Z E
     P R O C E S S E S A N D
     P R O C E D U R E S
     

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179. View Slide

180. R E L E VA N T
     I N T E L L E C T UA L
     D I S C I P L I N E S
     

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181. P R O C E S S
     E N G I N E E R I N G
     O P E R AT I O N S
     R E S E A R C H
     D E S I G N T H I N K I N G
     H U M A N CO M P U T E R
     I N T E R AC T I O N ( H C I )
     

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182. View Slide

183. T H E D E V E LO P M E N T
     A N D / O R
     D E P LOY M E N T O F
     S O F T WA R E
     

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184. I T I S B A S E D U P O N
     M O D E L S
     

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185. CA S E M G M T
     M AT T E R M G M T
     R E Q U I R E S A ST E P
     B Y ST E P
     U N D E R STA N D I N G
     O F P R O C E S S
     

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186. View Slide

187. I T CA N A L S O
     S U P P O RT T H E
     ‘ R E E N G I N E E R I N G ’
     O F T H AT P R O C E S S
     

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188. I T I S CA N A L S O
     P R OV I D E T H E
     F O U N DAT I O N A L
     DATA TO S U P P O RT
     OT H E R TY P E O F
     M O D E L I N G E F F O RT S
     

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189. View Slide

190. THERE ARE KNOWN
     METHODOLOGIES FOR
     MANAGING PROCESS
     CENTRIC WORK
     PROJECT MGMT
     PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
     

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191. View Slide

192. INDEED, ACROSS THE
     ECONOMY THERE ARE
     MANY EFFORTS TO
     CONVERT AN ARTISANAL
     PROCESS INTO AN
     INDUSTRIAL PROCESS
     

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193. THE
     INDUSTRIALIZATION
     OF THE
     ARTISAN
     

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194. THE INTELLECTUAL
     ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED
     TO A MUCH EARLIER
     TIME
     

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195. THE INTELLECTUAL
     ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED
     TO A MUCH EARLIER
     TIME
     

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196. the toyota
     production system
     lean ideas
     lean for
     enterprises
     (white collar, etc.)
     

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197. WE WANT TO ENSURE
     THAT WE CAN MAINTAIN
     THE ARTISAN ELEMENTS
     THAT DO ADD VALUE
     

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198. WITH RESPECT TO A GIVEN
     PROCESS THERE IS OFTEN A
     SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
     

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199. LEAN, SIX SIGMA
     AND OTHER
     PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
     METHODOLOGIES
     

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200. CAN HELP IMPROVE
     ALMOST EVERY
     SUBSECTOR IN LAW
     

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201. CONVERT HIGH VOLATILITY PROCESS
     

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202. CONVERT HIGH VOLATILITY PROCESS
     INTO A LOWER VOLATILITY PROCESS
     

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203. WHAT YOU ARE
     LEFT WITH IS A
     VERY USEFUL
     ARTIFACT …
     

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204. Responsible
     Role
     Task
     Description
     Estimated
     Time
     Billing Code
     Precedential
     Document
     Tool/
     Technology
     Used
     Participant
     INDIVIDUAL PROCESS STEP
     

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205. THE PROCESS MAP
     

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206. IT CAN AID IN
     Increasing Response Times
     Predicting Resource Loads
     Coordination Across Stakeholders
     Increasing Margins on Work
     

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207. I TEACH A FULL LENGTH
     CLASS AT ILLINOIS TECH
     LED BY OUR COLLEAGUES
     FROM THE LAW FIRM
     SEYFARTH SHAW
     

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208. View Slide

209. View Slide

210. SO THINK OF THE PROCESS
     MAP AS A FIRST ORDER
     ESTIMATION OF YOUR
     ACTUAL PROCESSES
     

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211. RICH / GRANULAR DATA
     CAN HELP ILLUMINATE
     THE ACTUAL PROCESSES
     PRESENT IN VARIOUS
     (LEGAL) ORGANIZATIONS
     

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212. FOR EACH NODE IN A
     PROCESS WE WANT TO
     BE ABLE TO RENDER A
     PREDICTION ABOUT
     THINGS SUCH AS
     DURATION, COST, ETC.
     

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213. COURTS CAN PROVIDE
     SCIENTIFIC SCHEDULE
     OF CASES, ETC.
     

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214. EACH UNIT OF TIME LINKED
     + LOGGED TO A NODE ON
     THE PROCESS MAP
     

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215. LEAN
     PROCESS
     MAPPING
     

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216. IF THERE IS NOT A NODE
     THEN IT CAN BE ADDED
     AND THUS THE MAP
     BECOMES MORE
     REFLECTIVE OF REALITY
     

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217. JUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO
     CREATE A
     #RIDICULOGRAM
     

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218. WITH PREDICTIONS ABOUT
     INDIVIDUAL NODES
     

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219. WE CAN THEN SUM TO
     GENERATE PREDICTIONS
     ABOUT THE DISTRIBUTIONAL
     MOMENTS OF AN OVERALL
     MATTER (OR PHASE)
     (i.e. mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis)
     

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220. THIS MATTER SHOULD TAKE …
     BETWEEN 9-15 MONTHS
     IN 85% OF THE SIMILAR MATTERS
     (WHAT ABOUT THE LONG TAIL?)
     

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221. THIS MATTER WILL COST…
     MOST COMMON RANGE 275K - 345K
     BUT THE SECOND MODE IS 555K - 625K
     (AND THAT SECOND
     MODE TYPICALLY IS
     REALIZED WHEN THE
     FOLLOWING FACTORS
     ARE PRESENT … )
     

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222. SPEAKING OF
     #PREDICTION
     

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223. View Slide

224. M O D E L I N G TY P E 6
     P R E D I C T I V E
     M O D E L I N G O F
     L E G A L SY ST E M S
     

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225. H O W LO N G W I L L
     T H I S M AT T E R L A ST ?
     

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226. H O W M U C H W I L L
     T H I S M AT T E R CO ST ?
     

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227. W I L L W E W I N ?
     

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228. WHAT ARE THE RIGHT
     RESOURCES TO USE AT THE
     MATTER AND TASK LEVEL ?
     

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229. T H E R E A R E A
     W I D E VA R I E TY
     O F P R E D I C T I O N
     P R O B L E M S
     W I T H I N L AW
     

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230. T H E R E A R E T WO
     M A J O R CA N D I DAT E S
     F O R P R O C E S S I N G
     P R E D I C T I O N S
     and / or
     

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231. CO G N I T I V E
     S C I E N C E
     CO M P U T E R
     S C I E N C E
     

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232. https://speakerdeck.com/danielkatz/the-three-forms-of-legal-prediction-experts-crowds-plus-algorithms
     I E X PA N D
     O N T H I S
     OV E R H E R E
     

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233. View Slide

234. CO M P U TAT I O N A L
     P R E D I C T I O N W I L L L E A D
     TO T WO PA RT I C U L A R
     FA M I L I E S O F
     M O D E L I N G M E T H O D S
     

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235. P R E D I C T I O N
     MACHINE
     LEARNING
     NATURAL
     LANGUAGE
     PROCESSING
     A N D / O R
     =
     

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236. T H E S E M O D E L I N G
     M E T H O D S A R E
     L E V E R AG E D I N U S E
     CA S E S S U C H A S T H E
     F O L LO W I N G
     

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237. #Predict Substantive Case Outcomes
     #Predict Rogue Behavior/Compliance
     #Predict Contract Terms/Outcomes
     #Predict Case Scheduling
     #Predict Judge Work Allocation
     #Predict Relevant Legal Information
     #Predict Costs / Duration for Litigants
     

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238. View Slide

239. A N D F R O M A
     G LO B A L
     P E R S P E C T I V E
     

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240. T H E R E H A S B E E N
     S I G N I F I CA N T
     S C I E N T I F I C A N D
     CO M M E R C I A L
     I N T E R E ST
     

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241. I N B U I L D I N G A N D
     L E V E R AG I N G M O D E L S
     

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242. #JudicialAnalytics
     Quantitative Legal Prediction
     

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243. #PredictiveCoding #E-Discovery
     Quantitative Legal Prediction
     

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244. General Counsels as Legal
     Procurement Specialists
     #LegalSpendAnalytics
     Quantitative Legal Prediction
     TyMetrix/ELM -
     Using $80 billion+ in Legal
     Spend Data to Help GC’s
     Look for Arbitrage
     Opportunities, Value
     Propositions in Hiring Law
     Firms
     

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245. “Lawyers say the real value in mediation and arbitration might in the future
     come from large-scale data analysis of arbitrators and mediators themselves,
     in an effort to predict outcomes and potentially affect the course of
     settlements … Matthew Saunders, partner at Ashurst, notes that data
     analytics “could be extended to predicting which way arbitrators or a
     mediator might go”.
     #ArbitrationAnalytics
     

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246. View Slide

247. View Slide

248. View Slide

249. View Slide

250. “…I study choice of law by
     analyzing the nearly 1,000,000
     contracts that have been disclosed
     to the Securities and Exchange
     Commission between 1996–2012.”
     

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251. View Slide

252. View Slide

253. View Slide

254. View Slide

255. View Slide

256. View Slide

257. http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174698
     Katz DM, Bommarito MJ II, Blackman J (2017), A General
     Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court
     of the United States. PLoS ONE 12(4): e0174698.
     

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258. H E R E A R E A F E W
     E X A M P L E S I N T H E
     CO N T E X T O F CO U RT
     A D M I N I ST R AT I O N
     

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259. https://motoraccidents.lawnet.sg/
     

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260. https://civilresolutionbc.ca/
     

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261. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201901/24/WS5c4959f9a3106c65c34e64ea.html
     The 206 System
     Transcribe testimony
     Transfer physical data and documents to
     electronic databases
     Display relevant parameters immediately,
     such as time, place, people, behavior and
     consequences
     Identify defective or contradicting evidence
     Respond to oral commands to display
     evidence and information on screens around
     the courtroom
     Inter-connect with judicial, procuratorial,
     public security authorities and courts
     

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262. B U T T H E R E I S M U C H
     M O R E T H AT CA N B E
     D O N E …
     

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263. A N D T H I S I S W H E R E
     YO U CO M E I N …
     

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264. View Slide

265. PA RT I I I
     L AW M E E T S ST E M
     

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266. I H AV E LO N G
     B E L I E V E D T H AT A
     L AW S C H O O L A N D A
     T E C H N I CA L S C H O O L
     S H O U L D M E E T
     

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267. LIBERAL ARTS LEGAL.EDU
     

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268. POLYTECHNIC LEGAL.EDU
     LIBERAL ARTS LEGAL.EDU
     

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269. Daniel Martin Katz, The MIT School of Law? A
     Perspective on Legal Education in the 21st Century,
     University of Illinois Law Review (2014)
     

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270. I OUTLINE IN THIS PAPER
     MY VISION FOR WHAT
     LAW.EDU COULD BE ...
     (AND I AM NOT ALONE IN THIS VIEW)
     

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271. THERE QUITE A
     FEW LAW
     SCHOOLS WITH
     SOME CREDIBLE
     VERSION OF A
     POLYTECHNIC
     OFFERING
     (SOME ARE MORE SERIOUS THAN OTHERS)
     

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272. View Slide

273. THE
     DEMOGRAPHIC
     REALITY …
     

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274. WE ARE ABOUT TO
     HAVE THE
     LARGEST
     GENERATIONAL
     TRANSFER IN
     HUMAN HISTORY
     

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275. THIS IS A MAJOR
     CHALLENGE TO
     EVERY
     ORGANIZATION
     

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276. View Slide

277. ORGANIZATIONS
     NEED DIFFERENT
     (BETTER) HUMAN
     CAPITAL IN ORDER
     TO SUPPORT ALL
     OF THESE TRENDS
     HIGHLIGHTED
     HEREIN
     

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278. INCLUDING HELPING
     SOLVE THE
     COMPLEXITY
     CHALLENGE IN LAW
     

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279. WE NEED MORE
     MULTI
     DISCIPLINARY
     INDIVIDUALS
     

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280. WE NEED MORE
     MULTI
     DISCIPLINARY
     TEAMS
     

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281. AND THIS SHOULD
     BE REFLECTED IN
     THE CONTENT OF
     LEGAL EDUCATION
     

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282. T Shaped Professionals
     

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283. via
     

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284. View Slide

285. I N T H I S
     P R E S E N TAT I O N
     

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286. I H AV E B R I E F LY
     H I G H L I G H T E D AT
     L E A ST S I X F O R M S
     O F M O D E L I N G T H AT
     M I G H T B E
     L E V E R AG E D
     

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287. TO B E T T E R
     U N D E R STA N D A N D
     H O P E F U L LY
     I M P R OV E T H E
     D E L I V E R Y O F
     J U ST I C E
     

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288. I H AV E I D E N T I F I E D
     VA R I O U S M E T H O D S
     A N D I N T E L L E C T UA L
     F I E L D S W H O S E
     WO R K M I G H T A L S O
     B E L E V E R AG E D
     

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289. M U C H M O R E CO U L D
     B E S A I D I N A
     LO N G E R F O R M
     S E S S I O N …
     

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290. B U T I T H I N K T H I S
     H E L P S M A P T H E
     I N T E L L E C T UA L
     T E R R A I N
     ( AT L E A ST I N PA RT )
     

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291. A N D H O P E F U L LY
     S P U R S A S E R I E S
     O F F R U I T F U L
     CO L L A B O R AT I O N S
     

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292. AT T H E
     I N T E R S E C T I O N O F
     L AW + ST E M
     

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293. View Slide

294. T H A N K YO U
     I I T D E L H I
     F O R H O ST I N G M E TO DAY
     N LU D E L H I
     

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295. T H A N K YO U DA K S H S O C I E TY
     F O R R E AC H I N G O U T TO
     I N V I T E M E F O R T H E TA L K
     

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296. T H A N K YO U
     DA K S H C E N T R E
     O F E XC E L L E N C E
     AT I I T- D E L H I
     F O R H AV I N G M E
     A S A M E N TO R
     TO T H E C E N T E R
     

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297. S O M E T H O U G H T S O N
     M O D E L I N G L E G A L SY ST E M S
     @computational
     professor daniel martin katz danielmartinkatz.com
     Illinois tech - chicago kent law computationallegalstudies.com https://bit.ly/3yxhY2e
     

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